NFL Winners and Losers -- Week 13

Week 13 was probably the craziest weekend of the NFL season so far, with at least three significant upsets and a few more in the making as well. Unfortunately my Week 13 picks fell victim to the madness as I posted a 1-4 record, my worst week of the season so far as the only game I nailed was the one that everybody thought I was crazy for -- the Saints' letdown at the Redskins. Otherwise I was a last-minute field goal away in both Seattle and Buffalo, a punt return away at the Giants, and I was way off base in the Sunday night matchup as Arizona did away with its 2-3 home record and dressed down one of the titans of the NFC in the Vikings. That's a week I just want to forget and move on from, which is exactly what I'm going to do here now as I put the wraps on Week 13 with the weekly Winners and Losers report:

Winners:

1. The Philadelphia Eagles. What a day for the Eagles, and I don't just mean because of what they did in Atlanta. Not only did the Eagles completely obliterate the 6-5 playoff-hopeful Falcons in their home stadium in a crucial game for the Eagles' divisional chances, but they managed to accomplish their stated goal of getting Mike Vick into the end zone in a big way, as The Torturer both threw and ran for touchdowns in the Eagles' 34-7 romping over the Falcons in a game that wasn't even that close. Quarterbacks Donovan McNabb and Mike Vick threw a very efficient 16 for 27 for nearly 300 yards and three touchdowns, and the team got a huge contribution from fullback Leonard Weaver who amassed more than 100 yards on just 5 rushes and 2 receptions on the day, one for a touchdown. But most of all, the Dallas Cowboys' loss at the Giants later on Sunday afternoon lifted the 8-4 Eagles into a tie with the 'Boys for first place in the NFC East, the first time the Eagles have been able to claim that position in the division since Week 1 of this year.

2. The Denver Broncos. Denver has come roaring back from a 4-game slide following the team's 6-0 start to the 2009 season, as the team erupted for 44 points in a blowout at one of the league's historically hardest stadiums to win at in Kansas City. On Sunday, the Broncos banged out 413 yards of total offense -- 245 of those via the running game -- compared to just 222 total yards for the Chiefs on the day. Correll Buckhalter picked up 113 yards on 12 carries on the ground, while Knowshon Moreno chipped in with 83 more rushing yards of his own, and Broncos wideout Brandon Marshall also came up with a big game in hauling in 7 passes for 94 yards and a touchdown to boot. After faltering in the middle of the season, the Broncos now sit at 8-4, all alone in line for the first wildcard in the AFC, which at this moment would set them up with a trip to San Diego for a sexy first-round playoff matchup with their sworn enemies and divisional rival Chargers.

3. The Miami Dolphins and quarterback Chad Henne. After the Dolphins big come-from-behind victory against the Cheatriots on Sunday in what was a national game in many markets, I suspect this will finally be the time that Chad Henne starts to get his due for what has been a really solid season for the 2nd-year quarterback out of Michigan. After last year's MVP runner-up Chad Pennington went down to injury after leading the Fish to an 0-3 start, Henne has stepped in and gone an amazing 6-3, including the big Cheatriots win as well as two wins against fellow division rivals the New York Jets. In the win on Sunday, Henne had his best game since Week 5, throwing for 335 yards for the first 300-yard game of his career on 29 of 52 passing. More than that, however, is just how poised and strong Henne looks back there behind the O-line, and the incredible gun Henne has for an arm as he routinely whips the ball screaming towards his receivers with just a flick of his wrist in the air. Despite having played games at the Falcons, Chargers, Jets and Patriots and at home against the Colts, Jets, Saints and Patriots, and losing last year's MVP runner-up at quarterback, the Dolphins now sit at an amazing 6-6, just one game out of the AFC East lead and with seemingly winnable games at Jacksonville and Tennessee coming up before finishing up at home against the Texans and Steelers. And in stark contrast to the Dallas Cowboys, the Dolphins are also 5-0 in December under second-year head coach Tony Sparano. It could be another fun winter in southern Florida if all goes well for Dolphins fans.

4. The NFC East race: What was looking just a few weeks ago as a runaway for the Cowboys is now one of the most wide-open races in the NFL for 2009. What it comes down to is that the Cowboys, Eagles and Giants will likely battle it out for two playoff spots, one of them the division winner and one the wildcard. And with the Cowboys and Eagles now at 8-4 and the Giants just behind at 7-5, this really is anybody's division to win with four huge games left for each team. Interestingly, the remaining schedules for these three squads each have their scare points, with the Eagles still playing the Giants, Cowboys, 49ers and Broncos, the Cowboys facing the Eagles, Redskins, Saints and Chargers, and the Giants slated to face the Eagles, Redskins, Panthers and Saints. Something tells me that we're going to be looking at our second straight season of the Eagles at the Cowboys in the last game of the season to determine the final member of the 2009 NFC playoff picture.

5. The AFC East race: The AFC East is another division that was thought to be an absolute runaway, in this case for the New England Cheatriots, as recently as a few weeks ago and certainly before the season began. But after this past weekend saw the Jets pull out a victory against the Bills while the Dolphins shocked the Pats in Miami, we're now looking at the Cheatriots at 7-5 while the Jets and Dolphins are right on their heels, each at 6-6 through twelve games on the season. Unlike in the NFC East, however, the current leader in the Cheatriots has a very favorable remaining schedule, with games at Buffalo, at Houston, and at home against the Jaguars and the Panthers to close out the 2009 season, so they may be very difficult to catch from a practical perspective. But with Miami fixing to play the Jaguars, Titans, Texans and Steelers, they have as good of a chance as anyone of making a race yet out of the division normally reserved for the biggest cheaters in the game today.

Losers:

1. The Washington Redskins. Can somebody please tell me, how in the weinerschnitzel did the Redskins manage to lose this game? And can Jim Zorn get a fucking break or what? The guy's team comes out rocking and rolling, takes an early 10-0 lead on the Saints in their letdown game, and even after giving up a fumble recovery for a touchdown in the waning seconds of the first half on what was itself an interception return by the Redskins to drop back to 17-17 at halftime, the Skins come right back out in the second half and quickly retake a 10-point lead. They did everything they possibly needed to do to win, including getting into position with just three minutes left to kick the ultimate chip-shot field goal to take an insurmountable 10-point lead, and boom! Suisham misses it. He misses a field goal from the fucking four yard line. Fast forward one blown coverage from the Redskins, and we're in overtime, and even though the Skins won the toss you knew that wasn't going to save them after blowing a lead like they did on Sunday afternoon to a team like the Saints. I know the Skins put up a good effort and they still covered and won me my lone win of Week 13, but come on guys. The Saints have been deserving to lose for weeks this year, and this one was supposed to be their game.

2. The Pittsburgh Steelers. This was one of the most shocking upsets of the season, as the Oakland Raiders rallied to beat the defending Superbowl champions on the road in a crucial matchup by a score of 27-24 on the strength of three fourth-quarter touchdown drives. Let me repeat that again in case you are too drunk to understand: The Raiders. Scored on three separate touchdown drives. In just the fourth quarter. Against the superbowl champions. On the road. I know, I know, but what can I say, it really happened. The bottom line is that, when Troy Polamalu is not out there prowling the backfield for the champs, that defense is a shadow of its former self, and this weekend was no exception as the hapless Raiders ran for 109 yards and passed for another 308, with Bruce Gradkowski leading Oakland on his second late game-winning touchdown drive in his three starts since replacing the infamous JaMarcus Russell as the Raiders' quarterback. And this loss is particularly damaging to the Steelers, who with it now fall to 6-6 on the season, tied with the Jets, Dolphins and Ravens, and a full game out of the AFC wildcard race if the season ended today.

3. The Dallas Cowboys. Never has a single loss for a team still tied for their division lead meant so much as the Cowboys' 7-point loss at the New York Giants late on Sunday afternoon seems to mean. After going 11-23 in December and January since 2002, it's become an annual ritual to wait for the Cowboys to swoon in winter, especially on the road in the cold, and to have an 8-3 team that's already lost once to the G-Men lose again (and lose badly) with the Giants in the midst of a terrible slump is a very bad sign for Dallas. Want to know just how bad things got in a hurry after the 'Boys Week 13 loss? Check out Monday's press conference. That's about as hostile as you ever see the press get towards a head coach, especially one whose team is still in first place and holding the tiebreaker over the team it's tied with. And with the Chargers and Eagles at home and the Saints and Redskins on the road, the remaining road for Dallas almost seems custom-made for a good old-fashioned collapse, Wade Phillips-style.

4. The New England Cheatriots. With the 1-point loss to the Dolphins this weekend, the Cheats fell to 7-5, the first time this team has seemed so beatable with Tom Brady at quarterback since, well, before the team was caught regularly stealing the signals for every play the opposition was running on them game-in and game-out for years earlier this decade. Although Randy Moss and Wes Welker continue to make Tom Brady look solid in the passing game, the Pats have now gone six games without even an 85-yard rusher to help them balance the offense and eat up clock against the better teams, which has really shown in the team's record so far this season. And, while the Pats have remained strong at home at 6-0 so far here in 2009, the team fell to 1-5 on the road with the Miami loss on Sunday, which has to be viewed as a very disturbing sign for anyone hoping or expecting to cheer the cheaters on to their fourth superbowl title this decade.

5. Matt Cassell. Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassell was benched in the fourth quarter for the first time in what has been by all counts a disappointing first season for the former Cheatriot quarterback who followed the Cheatriots' Director of Player Personnel Scott Pioli to KC in the 2008-2009 offseason. After a dismal performance at home against the division rival Broncos on Sunday (more on that later), Cassell's numbers on the year are looking highly dubious for the guy who was supposed to lead the Chiefs back to respectability after a 11-5 season under Bill Bellicheat in New England. Cassell is off to a 3-8 start in Kansas City, totalling 1982 yards with a too-low 13 touchdowns combined with a too-high 9 interceptions in 11 starts. Furthermore, Cassell has completed just 53% of his passes on the year, reaching 60% on only three occasions in 11 starts, and he has tossed equal or more interceptions than touchdowns in six of those 11 starts, which is a sure recipe for disaster for any quarterback. In the end, the proof is in the offense that Cassell has led for 11 of his team's 12 games so far here in 2009 -- the Chiefs have failed to score more than 21 points in all but one of Cassell's starts on the season, including 16 or fewer points in 8 of those games. With the benching this past weekend, Chiefs management and fans have got to start thinking whether this guy was really the right decision to take the home team to the promised land in KC.

TO Watch: After back-to-back season best performances over the past two weeks for the volatile Bills wide receiver, TO returned to form on Thursday with Darelle Reavis, perhaps the best cover cornerback in the NFL today, shadowing his every step. On the game TO recorded just 3 catches for 31 yards, no touchdowns and one or two big drops on passes he should have caught to boot. In 12 games with Buffalo in 2009, TO now has 43 receptions for 690 yards and 3 touchdowns. Those numbers look a whole lot better than the roughly half that each was just a few weeks ago, but they're still not anywhere close to where TO needs them to be if he expects to get any kind of a worthwhile job catching passes in the NFL in 2010.

The JaMarcus Russell award: This week, this one's gotta go to the Chiefs' Matt Cassell. Before being benched in the fourth quarter against the hated Broncos in favor of someday named Brandon Croyle, Cassell managed to end 10 of 29 (34% completions) for 84 yards and zero touchdowns, and he tosses two interceptions just for good measure. Cassell's final qb rating on the day? 14.2. That right there is a couple of points high, but definitely JaMarcus Russell-worthy.

NFL's best team: Well, the Saints certainly made it interesting with their start-to-finish letup against the lowly Washington Redskins on Sunday, potentially creating an opening for either the Colts or Vikings to swoop in with a huge game and really challenge for the top spot. But then the Colts won only by 7 points at home against Vince Young and the Titans, and the Vikings went out and got spanked all over the field by the Cardinals in Arizona, replete with Brett Favre looking like the more recent versions of himself in throwing two picks, and probably another two or three more that should have been intercepted but somehow were not despite the throws being very ill-advised. The Vikings, who have now shown at least some weakness to teams that throw the ball, definitely drop out of this mix for now after their beatdown on Sunday, and as between the Colts and the Saints I am still going to lean slightly towards the Saints. And with the Saints looking at games at Atlanta (sans Matt Ryan and several other offensive players), at home against the Cowboys (another Cowboys road game in December against a good team), home against the Bucs and then at Carolina to end the season, 16-0 is at this point a very real possibility for the boys from the land of the Mississippi delta.

NFL's worst team: I think we still need to go with the Rams here, despite the team having the NFC's second-leading rusher in Steven Jackson. Although Cleveland obviously wants this award and the Browns continue to make a major push, in the end the Rams have still scored the fewest points in the NFL with 139 in 12 games (under 12 points per game) -- 6 points fewer than the Browns have scored thanks to their offensive outbursts over the past few weeks -- and although the 1-11 Rams have allowed only the 5th-most points in the NFL, the 1-11 Browns have again allowed 5 fewer points through 12 games so far this season. If you narrow this down to the league's 1-11 teams, the Rams just edge out the Browns as well as the Buccaneers, with an overall point differential of -175 that is at least double-digits worse than any other team in the league.

NFL Pick 5 -- Week 13

One thing is clear over the past few weeks with my NFL picks: I am not doing well when I "force" myself to pick a single game, in this case the weekly Thursday matchups that started a three weeks back. Since that time, I have picked four Thursday matchups (two on Thanksgiving Thursday), and I believe I am 1-3 in those four picks. Even though each week I have felt like I really liked the Thursday night game winner, the bottom line is that the early returns of 1-3 are not good when compared to my season record in all games of 35-20, where I get to pick my own five favorite lines each week to make a play on. So you may or may not see me continue to pick the Thursday night games here, but I plan to continue to pick five games a week throughout the regular season because, well, I'm having an awesome year with the games, and frankly I've made a lot of money in my own personal Bodog account as a result. So, once again starting at an 0-1 deficit heading into the weekend, here are the rest of my Week 13 picks, as usual in no particular order other than their order on the odds sheet I reviewed for the week's schedule:

1. Buffalo Bills +3 vs. New York Jets. Loss. Jets by 6. One of those you're-right-but-you're-still-wrong games, as I knew the Jets would be ineffective as they always are this year. But I can't complain, I've had my share of you're-wrong-but-you're-right games as well this season. It's just the nature of picking the NFL.

2. San Francisco 49ers (pickem) at Seattle Seahawks. My football friends know I am not a big fan of this year's Seahawks, and even their vaunted home field advantage has not worked nearly as well this year as in years past where the team has lost to the Bears and the Cardinals in Seattle already this season. The 49ers have been equally inconsistent to be sure, and most concerningly they have lost five straight road games after opening the season with a win at divisional rival Arizona in Week 1. All this helps explain why we're looking at a pickem game here, one which many might see as two mediocre teams battling it out for nothing. I think, however, that the 49ers and their head coach Mike Singletary still believe they can make a run at the NFC West with a little comeback here over the next couple of weeks. With Arizona (7-4) playing the Vikings this weekend and then at the 49ers next weekend, the Niners know if they can beat Seattle on Sunday to move to 6-6, they can face the Cardinals next week in their home stadium with a chance to move right back into a 7-6 tie for the NFC West, which at that point would really be like being a full game up on Arizona since the Niners would have swept them on the season series. So Singletary should have his boys coming to play, while the Seahawks really do have nothing to play for, no stars on their team to try to showcase themselves, nothing. And looking at the Hawks' schedule this season, who the hell who's any good has this team beat? Seattle has 4 wins on the season, coming against the Rams, the Rams, the Lions and the Jaguars. Yeah the Jags are vying for a wildcard spot in the AFC, but don't kid yourself: Seattle stinks, and they already lost by two touchdowns once to this 49ers squad. I take the 49ers to win straight up.

3. Dallas Cowboys -2 at the New York Giants. Well, picking against New York already worked so well once for me this week, I'm going for it again on Sunday as the Giants continue to reel uncontrollably despite their 5-0 season start. I know allllll about Dallas's historical road swoons in December, and I haven't' made any bones about what I think about Wade Phillips as a head coach in this league. The Cowboys aren't going anywhere good this season in the end, of that I have no doubt. But try as I might, I just cannot get away from how unmitigatingly bad the New York Giants defense has been, because I know the Cowboys can run the ball as well as throw it when they are on. Taking out Washington, Tampa Bay, Kansas City and Oakland -- the four worst shitpiler teams the Giants have played this year -- listen to these numbers the Giants have allowed in their seven other games this season, in order: Dallas scored 31 in Week 2, New Orleans scored 48 in Week 6, Arizona scored 24 in Week 7 (in a loss in NY), Philly scored 40 in Week 8, Chargers scored 21 in Week 9 (in a loss in NY), Atlanta scored 31 in Week 11, and Denver scored 26 in Week 12. So that's 31, 48, 24, 40, 21, 31, 26 in seven games against not-horrible teams this entire season -- a 31.5 ppg average -- including 31 by these same Cowboys earlier this year. Dallas is gonna put up a big number on this team again on Sunday afternoon, I have to believe. And after averaging 30.2 points per game themselves over their first five games of 2009, the Giants' offense has faltered along with Eli Manning's foot, hobbling its way to just 18.5 points per game over its last five outings. New York has lost two of its last three at home, and if you look at the likely playoff teams right now on their schedule this entire year, they are 1-5, with only that 2-point win at Dallas wayyy back on September 20 to show for it. I like the 'Boys laying a couple of points.

4. Minnesota Vikings -3 at Arizona Cardinals. Something just tells me we're going to be seeing a Cardinals at 49ers matchup next week for the NFC West lead, and to get there the Cardinals are going to have to lose to the Vikings this weekend. Which really should happen anyway in my view. I know the Cardinals are at home, but paradoxically this team is 5-1 on the road this year but only 2-3 in Arizona, including home losses to the 49ers, the Colts and the Panthers, so I just don't see much of a home field advantage here. And plus, let's be honest. The Vikes are a much better team than the Cardinals, especially with Arizona qb Kurt Warner still troubled by the effects of a concussion suffered two weeks ago at the Rams. It does sound like Warner will start, but it stands to reason that he will probably be off his best game with lingering headaches still a factor and with having only taken half the reps this week and even less last week. And nothing has changed with the Vikes' league-best runningback and soon-to-be NFL MVP at quarterback in Brett Favre, who remember has a decent 12 touchdowns and zero interceptions over his last four games. The Vikings have won four of their five road games this year by 12 points or more (admittedly three of which were against the Browns, Lions and Rams), but for once we aren't looking at a 13.5 point line here for the Vikes. I see this is a chance to get in on one of the hottest teams in the NFL, with several of the best players in the league between Favre, AP and Jerod Allen on defense, for just a 3 point spread against a team whose quarterback is iffy and who hasn't played well at home anyways this season.

5. Washington Redskins +10 vs. New Orleans Saints. Obviously the Saints are awesome, and obviously the Skins stizzink out loud. But, this game just has letdown written all over it to me. The Saints got all hopped up to play the New England Cheatriots on national tv last weekend, where they crushed in front of the whole nation to see, and they know the travel to divisional rival Atlanta next weekend who always seems to play the Saints tough. Buried in the middle here is a quick pitstop in Washington to play the 3-8 Redskins on the road, where a little known fact is that the Skins have somehow compiled an over-.500 record so far in 2009 at 3-2 in their home games. Granted, two of the Skins' three home wins came early in the year against the Rams and the Buccaneers, but just a short while ago in Week 10 the Redskins surprised basically everyone and beat the then 6-2 Denver Broncos at home as well. In fact, in all five home games this season the Skins have won three, lost by 8 to Kansas City and lost by 10 to the Eagles, so clearly the Skins have it in them to put up a good effort in front of their home town fans. I'm not necessarily saying the Redskins are going to up and beat the Saints outright this weekend, but I see definite value in this pick amidst a likely let-down for the Saints and getting a touchdown plus a field goal to boot.

Six Years

Six years ago today, my life changed forever.

I'll never forget the day we took my first child home from the hospital. I don't think anybody ever forgets that moment -- the fear, the uncertainty. Or the guilt, of knowing that you should absolutely not be legally permitted to leave the hospital as the only people officially in charge of any other person's life, let alone a tiny, defenseless, utterly helpless and dependent baby, caring for whom you know absolutely nothing about whatsoever. I don't scare easily, but believe me when I say, you don't know petrified until that's you leaving the hospital with your first newborn kid.

It's impossible to quantify all the ways your life changes the moment you change from an unencumbered individual -- even if you're married -- to a parent. Going out to dinner every night? Gone. Seeing movies in an actual theater? No more. Jaunting off to Vegas several times a year, just for kicks? Fat chance. Live poker in Atlantic City? Ha ha. Things like life insurance, driving carefully and even just eating healthy suddenly take on an entirely new meaning.

But even though it's sometimes those things that people like me tend to focus on publicly, having kids is not all just new responsibilities and less ability to enjoy the fun things in life. In fact, having kids makes you understand just how great the "fun things in life" can really be. Sure, I don't get to take lavish vacations to exotic locations like Hammer Wife and I used to do whenever we wanted to. But, it turns out, I had no idea just how much fun a vacation could really be until I started bringing my kids along with me, being there the first time they saw the clear blue water of the Caribbean, for their first encounter with a real life iguana, or even the first time they saw the stars from 2000 miles south of their home and about a million miles from the lights of the big city. And yeah, having to watch all of my favorite tv shows on the DVR nowadays cramps my style just a little bit. But you can't compare that to the feeling of being there when the little light bulb finally clicks over your daughter's head as you spend that time with her and her favorite book instead and she finally, for the first time, really starts to figure out how to read.

Six years ago today, my life changed forever. And now I cannot even fathom thinking that my life before my children actually fulfilled me back in those days.

Happy Birthday, M. You seriously light up my life.

On an unrelated note, I like the Buffalo Bills +3 against the New York Jets tonight in Toronto. Seems like everybody and their mother is picking the Jets to win their second straight game tonight against the 4-7 Bills, but I am just not seeing it with the Jets. If not for Jake Delhomme's JaMarcus Russell-worthy performance last Sunday, the Jets don't even beat the Carolina Panthers at home in a down year for Carolina last week, and the Bills have been playing some of their best football of the season since Dick Jauron got fired and was replaced as interim head coach by Perry Fewell three weeks ago. TO is back in the house with his three best performances of the season in those last three games, and as I mentioned the Jets continue not to play well as they look to claw their way back to .500 on the season. I would lean towards the Bills straight-up in this game which is most definitely a road game for the Jets, if not exactly a home game for the Bills, but with the three points I just can't stay away from the value on the Bills in this one.

NFL Winners and Losers -- Week 12

Despite a rocky beginning, my picks finished Week 12 above .500 once again thanks to yet another solid Sunday of games where I went 2-1 to close out the week at a 3-2 clip once again. This raises my picks' record so far through 11 weeks to 35-20 on the season against the spread. 63.6% against the sharps in Vegas. Wow. And I know that a good deal of the reason for that success relates to the analysis I am doing here a couple of times a week on the blog, including reviewing each week's action in my Winners and Losers report, where I always try to spot trends and other interesting tidbits that are not necessarily readily available. So without further delay let's get to this week's report:

Winners:

1. Brett Favre. Wow. I mean, wow. What more can you say? 24 tds and just 3 interceptions on the season. Over the Vikings' last four games, Favre's sickness is even more apparent, as he has amassed 12 tds and a big fat zero picks over those games, all easy wins for his team. Wow. And Favre's lowest quarterback rating over that 4-game span? 112.1, in this past week's 36-10 smushing of the division rival Bears at home. Favre has got the best runningback in the league, and his team is scoring first and scoring often such that he is basically always playing from out in front -- usually way out in front -- and this makes teams focus all the more on the running game, leaving Favre with time to find his receivers and make the great throws he wants to. I know Peyton is putting up extraordinary numbers once again in Indy, and I know Drew Brees is also captaining an 11-0 team down in New Orleans, and I know Chris Johnson is sparking an amazing turnaround in Tennessee, but I've said it before and I'll say it again: I just don't see how you don't give the MVP of the league to Favre this year unless things change dramatically in the final five games of the 2009 regular season.

2. Vince Young, Chris Johnson and the Tennessee Titans. If not for the incredible season Brett Favre is putting together, there is no doubt that Vince Young would be the story of the 2009 NFL season. After VY led his team on a 99-yard drive in the final minutes to score yet another game-winning come-from-behind touchdown on Sunday to best the Cardinals with just one second remaining on the clock, Young has now led his team to an incredible 5-game winning streak after starting off the season an NFL-worst 0-6. It is clear at this point that the unthinkable 59-0 shellacking that the Titans took in Week 6 at the hands of the New England Cheatriots was the dramatic inflection point of the Titans' 2009 season, as coach Jeff Fisher made the switch to Vince Young at qb and the team has yet to lose since. And once again, Young is doing it in very dramatic and yet efficient fashion, with his lowest qb rating in his five starts being a still respectable 84.7 in the Week 11 win at Houston, and with Young still having thrown just one interception in his five starts this season, especially impressive for a young guy like VY is. And, along with Vince Young's emergence at quarterback, star runningback Chris Johnson has emerged as well as a bona fide MVP candidate, busting out with five huge triple-digit yardage performances in a row after only reaching the 100-yard plateau in two of the team's first six games. After rushing totals of 228 yards, 135 yards, 132 yards, 151 yards and now 154 yards this past weekend against the Cardinals, Johnson is almost as much a catalyst for his team's resurgence as Vince Young has been, and together the two of them can bring their team from the absolute cellar of the NFL to the thick of the playoff hunt with a win next week at Indianapolis.

3. The San Diego Chargers. After a 2-3 start, the San Diego Chargers have now rattled off six straight wins, looking almost more dominant by the week as the team now sits at 8-3 and a game up on division rival Denver, having crushed the Broncos head to head already last week as well. And after some early defensive struggles, the Chargers' D finally seems to be coming together in conjunction with its offense really clicking on all cylinders. In their last six games, the Chargers have scored an average of more than 31 points per game, with quarterback Phillip Rivers leading the way with another solid season consisting so far of 19 touchdowns and six interceptions with a completion percentage of over 64%. And over those same past six games, the Chargers out of nowhere have allowed just under 14 points per game, for an average margin of victory of more than 17 points over the past half dozen games for Norv Turner's team. With games against Cleveland and Washington still on the schedule for the Chargers, the odds are improving almost daily that San Diego will have a chance to eliminate the Colts from the postseason for the third consecutive year before the 2009 NFL season is completed.

4. The Green Bay Packers and the Philadelphia Eagles. Both of these two teams seemed dead a few weeks back, the Packers after losing at then 0-8 Tampa Bay in Week 9 to drop to 4-4, and the Eagles after that inexplicable loss at the Raiders in Week 6 to fall to 3-2 while star runningback Brian Westbrook sat out with multiple concussions. But now, after three straights wins over the Cowboys, 49ers and Lions for the Pack, and with the Eagles winning four out of their last six games including big wins vs the Giants at home as well as at the Bears and now the Redskins this past weekend, both teams now sit at 7-4 and own the two wildcard spots in the NFC were the season to end today. Both teams will have their work cut out for them if they expect to hold off the competition in the wildcard race, however, as the Pack still has the Ravens at home, at the Steelers and at Arizona on their schedule, while the Eagles prepare for games at Atlanta, the Giants and Dallas, plus home games vs. the 49ers and the Broncos, making the end of the Eagles' schedule about as bad as anyone's schedule could possibly be heading into the most key matchups of the NFL season.

Losers:

1. The New York Giants and quarterback Eli Manning. I can't believe I am saying this after Eli won the superbowl for New York a couple of years back, but this year is the first time we are starting to see that Phillip Rivers might have been a better choice at quarterback after all than Eli Manning back in the day. Clearly Ben Roethlisberger and his two superbowls in five years is the cream of the 2004 NFL draft quarterback pool, but Eli Manning is once again really starting to look less than spectacular without that big-game wide receiver to make huge plays game in and game out for him. Although Eli has piled up some decent stats against the shitpile teams in the NFL this season, against the five teams with solid defenses on the Giants' schedule so far (Washington, New Orleans, Arizona, Philadelphia and Denver), Manning's total numbers include four touchdowns and eight interceptions, for an average qb rating over those five games of under 65. After getting absolutely embarrassed on Thanksgiving night by the Broncos -- themselves mired at the time in a four-game losing streak -- the Giants have now dropped to 6-5 and sit on the outside looking in for the NFC playoff race, needing to pass either the Eagles or the Packers if they expect to be around for the 2009 postseason.

2. Jake Delhomme. Panthers quarterback Jake Delhomme managed to throw not one, not two, not three but four picks against the lowly Jets on Sunday, throws which clearly cost his team a shot at another win and the team's last chance to stay alive in the NFC playoff race. But the most annoying aspect with Delhomme in my view isn't even the badness of most of his throws on Sunday, and throughout much of this season; it's his attitude, the country bumpkin look on his face every time he throws another one. It's like Mark Sanchez meets Hillbilly Jim, for those of you who were into the old WWF, back when it was still the WWF and not the gheyass WWE. All I know is that, 11 starts into the 2009 season, Delhomme has recorded only two games with qb ratings over 82, and has tossed just 8 touchdowns as compared with 18 interceptions on the season, which simply just does not cut it in this league today.

3. The Pittsburgh Steelers. After letting yet another game slip away on Sunday, this one thanks to a final-minutes drive led by 2nd-year Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco, the defending superbowl champion Steelers suddenly find themselves in a very precarious position. Despite playing pretty well more or less every time I've seen them on television this season, the Steelers now sit at 6-5 following the loss to the Ravens, having dropped to 0-3 in the division against the Bengals and Ravens combined so far, with one more game against the Ravens a couple days after Christmas in Week 16 of the 2009 season. Now tied with the Ravens and the Jaguars at 6-5 for the final wildcard spot in the AFC, the Steelers are 1-3 in the conference and have lost to the Ravens already, so they are going to need to come up with some fancy footwork pretty quickly here if they expect to have a chance to defend their superbowl title come February.

TO Watch: Whoa. Two receiving touchdowns in two games for Terrell Owens? What gives? I guess something went down during the Week 9 bye week for the Bills, because since then TO has registered his three biggest games of the season in succession, spanning two different quarterbacks and not just being limited to his total yards receiving either. After making three catches for 85 yards in Week 10 in a loss to the resurgent Titans, TO not only caught for 195 yards at Jacksonville but also managed to haul in 9 balls in so doing, nearly doubling his biggest output of the season prior to that in terms of receptions, and then he followed that up this past weekend with 5 more catches for 96 yards and another touchdown, all season-highs for him other than the previous game at JAX. Putting side this past weekend's win against the Dolphins, however, TO's three previous biggest games of the season all came in losses for his team, so he still has a lot of work to go if he plans to show that he can still contribute to a winning team like he has on occasion during his career in the past.

The JaMarcus Russell award: This week once again we can't go to The Namesake since Russell was once again benched in favor of Raiders backup qb Bruce Gradkowski. A few guys put up a decent run at the title this week, but I think I just can't avoid giving this one to Jake Delhomme of the Panthers this week. In his team's 17-6 loss at the Jets on Sunday, Delhomme finished the day 14 for 34 (just over 41% completions) for 130 total yards passing, with zero touchdowns and four picks on the day. Delhomme's final qb rating for this game: 12.7. And if 12.7 ain't what the JaMarcus Russell award is all about, then I don't know what is.

NFL's best team: I had it all planned here, and I had even half-written this piece where I was ready to officially give the nod to the Minnesota Vikings here, but then I watched the Saints utterly and completely dismantle the Cheatriots on Monday night and I don't see how anyone can take the mantle away from New Orleans at this point in the season. The Colts keep on winning but they haven't looked particularly sharp in weeks, culminating with this past weekend's 35-27 victory over the Texans despite dropping to a 17-0 deficit in the first half of that game. And the Vikings meanwhile have been looking just awesome, with Brett Favre leading his team to a 10-1 record including wins by 12 points, 17 points, 36 and 36 in their last four games. But after watching what the Saints did to the Pats this week -- offensively, of course, but even on defense as the Saints swarmed around whichever Pats player was unfortunate enough to be holding the ball at the time, I'm not gonna stand here and call anybody other than them the team to beat in the NFL this season.

NFL's worst team: The Rams. Currently sitting at 1-10 on the season, the Rams lead the league in point differential with a whopping -167 over just 11 games. St. Louis has managed to score just 130 points over those 11 games, while giving up the 6th most points in the league as well at 279. For now we'll give this one to the Rams, with the understanding that the Browns are nipping at their heels for the honor of the worst the NFL has to offer here in 2009.

On MTT Grinding

I got an interesting comment to my last post last week where I did a pretty complete and robust recap post of my 2nd place in the nightly $30 rebuy tournament on full tilt a few days back. If you haven't read that post, #1 go back and read it now, and #2, in a nutshell, I ended up winning over $5100 for 2nd place in the $30 rebuy with a 25k guarantee on full tilt, getting sucked out on three times in a row in succession to eventually lose in heads-up play, but only even being alive for heads-up play after a series of lucky events in my favor along the way throughout the 6+ hours I played in this tournament. The comment, from OES as I recall, was essentially to say that it's just so demoralizing to many readers to see all the luck that had to happen just for me to end up in second place in this thing, with the implication being that this is what it takes to succeed in mtt play.

I have a few responses to this. First and foremost, it should be noted that this is only the way that some of my big tournament scores have gone down. I've had plenty of deep mtt runs where I got lucky -- either early, to build a big stack, or late, to survive and chip up at the final table -- all of which I have detailed here. I recall winning countless blonkaments after getting lucky at some point from behind with all my chips in the middle. Christ, my one and only WWdN win in fact saw me double up from dominated position allin preflop with 14 runners left, go on a massive tear, and an hour later I was the victor. So it happens. Sometimes it just takes massive luck to get you to a final table that you would not otherwise have been at.

And so what of that? I mean, how many times have I been sucked out on on the tournament bubble, with 50 runners left, at the final table bubble or even early at the final table when I am just short of the really big payouts? For all those times, shouldn't there be a tournament every once in a while where I hit a couple of lucky hands along the way and end up at a final table that I maybe should not otherwise have been at? Big deal. It happens all the time. But not always.

Looking back over all the tournaments where I've won, say, more than $2000 or so in my day, it should be noted that it's really a distinct minority where I got luckier than average to get where I ended up. So it really shouldn't be demoralizing to see how much luck it took me to get to 2nd place in this thing last week. This time it happened to take a lot of luck, as detailed in my post. But not always. I've had many, many deep runs where I did not get abnormally lucky at all -- the vast majority of my 2k+ scores in fact. Just think about my Venetian score last summer. In that thing as I recall I played 27 hours of no-limit tournament poker over two days, and I didn't get it in bad even once. Now maybe that's the other extreme, but my point is that, there are all different kinds of ways to find yourself at a big mtt final table.

It should also be noted that it's not like I just sat there in the $30 rebuy last week, bought in and rebought, and donkeypushed 18 times with every 74o I saw as if this were the now defunct Friday Night Donkament. Sure, I cracked a couple of AA with flopped sets. Sure, I made a straight on the turn against a guy who flopped a set. Sure at the final table I doubled up with K6 vs A6, JT vs AK and 43 vs AK. But thinking of it only in that way denies the very real fact that I played some pretty great poker in that $30 rebuy tournament along the way. Even in some of those 'lucky" situations that I mentioned above, there was some serious skill on my part to have gotten into that situation in the first place, such that perhaps many of you out there reading this would nebver even have been involved in those spots to begin with. For example, take that hand where I turned the straight against the guy who it turned out had flopped a set against me. In that case, as I recall, the guy had bet something ridiculous like a quarter of the pot with his flopped set. I had 8 outs, and I knew that the guy had just given me express odds (let alone the implied odds that were obviously there) to draw a card at my oesd. I imagine that many people in my spot might have folded to that bet with no made hand at the time. But it was only due to my knowledge of pot odds that I quickly made the calculation in my head and knew how obvious of a call this was. In fact, in that sense I totally outplayed my opponent there, who made a truly hideous play with that tiny bet with the flopped set, essentially forcing anyone who understands math to stay in and try to take one off and beat his set with a draw of some kind. Similarly, I don't even mention the other 50 times I could have raised on the flop -- either with top pair mediocre kicker, some kind of a draw, or even with air for that matter -- but chose not to because the math, my instincts, whatever told me not to. All of those were more examples of good play by me. Shit, even when I open-pushed JTs under the gun down to the final two tables and got called by UTG+1 with AK, I have no doubt whatsoever that I made the right play, a play that someone worse at poker than I might not have made, therefore not doubling up, and probably would not have won as much money as I did in this tournament. But if you aren't open-pushing with JTs and 11 players left in an mtt, when you are now down to 11th out of 11 remaining stacks, then I'm not sure you really understand how to play mtt's to win.

My point in all this is not to say that I actually didn't get lucky at all in last week's run in the $30 rebuy. You can see my post, and I've never been one to deny that I got lucky in those few times I was able to turn some run-goodery into cold hard cash at the mtt tables. I managed to prevail in a number of spots where I was not a favorite to survive at some point in the hand. But my point is that, regardless of the way I portrayed it in my recap post, there was a ton of skill that went into that win in addition to the few lucky hands I benefitted from. There always is. Even being allin there with the JTs to be in a position to double up and end up taking second for 5 grand can be thought of as skill-based, in that a lesser skilled mtt player might not have gotten in in that spot, and thus would not have doubled up and probably not been around at the end when we moved to heads-up. And notice, I was in there with JT and 43 in those times when I held up in key spots to stay alive at the final table. I wasn't in there with A4 or K7, the kinds of hands that are likely to be dominated against a preflop raiser or a caller of a preflop raise from me, and that was also based on skill. In each of those three spots, I got in as an underdog, but only a roughly 40% underdog (in some cases even better than that). If I call allin reraises preflop with A4 and A6, I'm going to find myself a 20% underdog a whole lot more frequently, and it's going to be hard to survive very many of those 4-to-1 against shots until the last couple players of these tournaments.

So no, it does not by a long shot take massive amounts of luck to win an mtt. As I mentioned, the vast majority of my big mtt scores have come in situations where I played pretty much great on the night, had minimal suckouts and minimal situations where I needed a particular card to hit in order for me to stay alive. Those of you who took from my post last week that I played like a fonkey but kept getting lucky again and again after making bad play after bad play, are sorely mistaken. To be clear, I played pretty much great poker that night -- most of it in ways that are not illustrable via screen shot like I like to do -- and in the end that great play combined with some mathematical luck in some very key spots to keep me alive, build me a stack and eventually carry me well into four figures for my tournament payout. But it shouldn't be disheartening to anyone who might think that the only way to make a deep run like this is to get extremely lucky, multiple times. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Moreover -- and this is the other point I've been struggling to put into coherent words over the past week or so -- is that luck plays a huge factor in almost any mtt anyone ever plays in. If you don't realize that, then you probably don't play a ton of mtts, or at least you don't run deep in a bunch of them. But it's true -- you have to get lucky to win the big money any mtt, period. "Lucky" in some form in the poker context, anyways. You don't need to be dealt AA and KK 85 times, you don't need to flop a ton of sets (though that doesn't hurt) and you don't need to suck out on someone at the river three times at the final table either. But you do need to avoid picking up KK vs AA, pretty much all the way from the first hand of the tournament to head-up play at the final table, and you do need to avoid losing a key 80% dominated favorite all-in at the final table. You do need to avoid reraising a late-position stealer into his pocket Aces, and you do need to avoid picking up TPTK against an overpair late in the event when the blinds are getting big enough to make it hard to lay down in such a situation. There are simply wayyyyyy too many ways to lose a big tournament like this, and you have to avoid essentially all of them in order to be the guy still alive at the very end when the big money is in play. It's impossible to do this without luck, a good deal of it, at least the situational kind of luck I am describing above. Again, this is something which any true mtt grinder knowns right down to his soul. It doesn't mean you didn't play well, and it doesn't mean you don't deserve to be where you ended up getting in the tournament, but luck is just an ever-present obstacle that completely permeates through the results and play of all mtt grinders. It's always there, waiting to pounce if you make just one misstep, and personally that's what always seems to make it feel so special in those times that I do persevere through and last all the way to the end of a large mtt.

After countless tournaments -- live and online -- over the past, say, five years, and after limitless hours sitting at the computer and playing this game we all know and love, one thing above all else has become clear to me regarding the nature of griding mtt's, one of the many ideas addressed superbly by Arnold Snyder in his tournament poker books: When it comes right down to it, all you can do with tournament poker skill is increase your advantage over the rest of the field. That's it. So in an mtt with 1000 runners in it, for example, if everyone was of equal skill and there was no luck involved, each player would have a 1-in-1000 chance of winning the first prize. But of course, everyone has different skill levels, such that the best player in that tournament might be able to lower his odds of winning from 1-in-1000 to, say, 1-in-500. And that's only for a really good tournament player. But luck plays such a huge factor in any large field mtt that there's just no way that anybody, in my view, can really get more than that 200% advantage over the rest of the field in a big tournament. There's just no way. Phil Ivey might be the best player in the world, and with 6300 entrants in the WSOP Main Event, he might have a better than the 1-in-700 chance on average of making the final 9 spots for the November Nine. But it's not like Ivey's chance is 1 in 20, or even 1 in 100 or anything close to that to make the final table. Nobody is that good at mtt's that they can overcome poker luck in all its various forms, from the starting cards you get, to the starting cards your opponents' get, to the cards you and your opponents get in the same hands, to the seat assignments, to the suckouts, to the races you win, etc.

Being able to increase your raw odds of winning a tournament at the expense of a bunch of other lesser players in an mtt is the best you can hope for, and even for the best players in the world, they can only realistically expect to have 200% or so as good of odds of winning than everyone else. And if you accept that as fact like I do, then it stands to reason that luck is still going to play a massive part in any deep mtt run, because even the best players in the world are only going to be roughly twice as likely as "average" to win. The best players will just be the ones who take best advantage of that luck when it does happen, and those who most consistently put themselves into positions where if they do get lucky, they can really make some noise with it.

As a rule, the very best large-field mtt players in the world make consistently better poker decisions in the moment than the rest of us. That's what gives them that 200% advantage in lasting through these large fields to the big money payouts at the end of poker tournaments. But the fact that their advantage is still only maybe twice as great as the rest of us leads to the one other thing you will note about any professional who is widely regarded as being a tournament specialist -- they run a lot of mtts. They have to. That's the only way to really get that 200% advantage over the field to work for you. In the end, the trick with these things is to consistently get yourself into positions in these tournaments where you can make some real noise if you get a little bit of luck. And then, play that way as many times as you possibly can. If you consistently get yourself into situations in large-field mtts where you can make a deep run if you get a little lucky, then the frequency with with you can get yourself into such a situation will have a direct correlation with your mtt results over the long haul.