November Ivey

Looks like my rant about Pedro Martinez will have to wait for another day. My sense is there will be plenty of apropos opportunities to vent my frustrations with that whole megillah, but something in the poker world is just more interesting to me today.

Phil Ivey did it. He will be among the November Nine, the delayed final table of the Main Event of the World Series of Poker for 2009. Phil Ivey successfully navigated a field of 6,494 and has reached his first Main Event final table, after already scoring two WSOP bracelets this summer. He did it.

Barely.

But I digress. Despite the happy ending with Ivey making the final table, the few other stories with mainstream attraction came to quick endings, with tournament short stack Leo Margets (last woman standing) busted out within half an hour, followed within an hour or so by a few other players including Antonio Esfandiari. You can't kill the Magician for the early bust -- he was real short coming in if you recall, and being a pro he would be well aware of the need to double in order to get back his chances of a deep run instead of just lasting one more payout plateau. Ultimately Antonio was eliminated in 24th place, which was close to his chip position coming in to Day 8. In any event, this basically left Ivey as the sole player left out of 23 remaining who anybody outside of the Amazon Room knew anything at all about. For now.

As I imagine ESPN, the WSOP and basically anything and everything associated with the world of poker are feeling, it is very fortunate that Phil Ivey was able to survive to the final nine players. And I use the word "survive", because after a rocky start that included two early losses with pocket Jacks, Ivey was short-stacked for the entire second half of the day, often within the bottom two or three remaining players. And all the while, previous chip leader Darvin Moon -- easily the coolest name among the remaining players in the tournament -- was growing, growing, growing his stack, capitalizing on a huge 40M+-chip pot around midway through the day to eliminate fellow big stack and former chip leader Billy Kopp. Then, literally just minutes into the final table bubble (10 players remaining), Eric Buchman raised it up to 650k preflop, already big chipleader Moon cold called, and then Jordan Smith reraised it to 2.6 million. Buchman folded, and Moon cold called again with what turned out to be pocket 8s. Moon flopped top set, insta-calling with the mortal nuts when Jordan Smith raised allin on the flop with his pocket Aces, Smith's second pocket Aces of the past hour's action.

Seriously, how's that for a real drag? You're in 4th place out of 10 on the ME final table bubble, and you're dealt pocket Aces for the second time in an hour on one of the very first hands on the bubble. Some guy with a bailout's worth of chips across the table separately cold-calls not one but two raises before the flop against your Aces. You get him to bet out on the all-rags flop, and he calls your all-in flop raise with what is probably some overpair. Whooops! Set of 8s, and since he was chip leader, you go buh-bye and no November Nine for you. See everybody else in four months. Poor guy is all I have to say for him. Poor guy with $896,000 more in his bank account this morning. But I imagine that one is still gonna sting for some time with him, especially come the second week of November.

Anyways, Ivey will be the big story for months in the poker world, and the November Nine may finally actually be watched by some people this year. What's more, wouldn't it be awesome if ESPN decides to hire somebody who knows something about televised poker to figure out the best way to broadcast the November Nine? I mean, could last year's coverage of the final table have realistically been any worse? Both in the selection of hands, the number of hands shown, and the way those hands were portrayed, take your pick. Seriously. No matter how ESPN decides to spin it, though, Phil Ivey is going to have his work cut out for him given the starting stacks of the 2009 November Nine:

Seat 1: Darvin Moon - 58,930,000
Seat 2: James Akenhead - 6,800,000
Seat 3: Phil Ivey - 9,765,000
Seat 4: Kevin Schaffel - 12,390,000
Seat 5: Steven Begleiter - 29,885,000
Seat 6: Eric Buchman - 34,800,000
Seat 7: Joe Cada - 13,215,000
Seat 8: Antoine Saout - 9,500,000
Seat 9: Jeff Shulman - 19,580,000

Let me also list those same people this way, in order of how many chips they hold:

1. Darvin Moon 58.9M
2. Eric Buchman 34.8M
3. Steven Begleiter 29.9M
4. Jeff Shulman 19.5M
5. Joseph Cada 13.2M
6. Kevin Schaffel 12.4M
7. Phil Ivey 9.8M
8. Antoine Saout 9.5M
9. James Akenhead 6.8M

Play stopped with a short time left in Level 33 of the tournament, which means a 30k ante and blinds of 120k-240k. After the resumption in early November -- assuming no changes are made to the structure prior to the tournament resuming -- after a few minutes the cost to play should jump to a 40k ante and 150k-300k blinds. So, just like I said with Antonio Esfandiari coming in to Day 8 (and look how well that turned out!), Ivey is very short stacked but he should still have plenty of room to wait for a good spot to get his chips in for the double-up. Right now he has still just over 40 big blinds, and for the next two hours after the quick level change at the beginning of the final table, he will still have 32 big blinds to play with. Make no mistake, he is not in a good situation, but he is far from hopeless here. My last point will just be to say that, when I look at the chip stacks in order like that above, it is clear to me just how similar a position Ivey is in to the one I was in coming in to Day Two at the Venetian last month. About two-thirds of the way down the leaderboard, surrounded by all the biggest remaining stacks in the tournament, many of them having several multiples of my own chips, and knowing that I basically needed to make a move within the first couple of hours or it wasn't worth fighting for. Ivey should have a little more time than that to hang on, but sooner or later in the first part of that final table, Ivey is going to have to make an attempt to double up in the best spot he can find. And if he can double early -- especially if it's against the chip leader Darvin Moon (can't you just envision that now?) -- the scene should start getting pretty electric early on. I might actually even have to watch the November Nine this year, that's how crazy this is!

WSOP Main Event -- The Final 27

Tuesday claimed a few more of the guys I had any specific interest in heading in to the Day 7 action of the World Series of Poker Main Event, starting right off the bat with pro Prahlad Friedman and just a short while later with PokerRoad guy Joe Sebok. Not that I particularly care about or even like Prahlad Friedman or Joe Sebok, but they are known poker pros, and I think if a known poker pro wins the Main Event, that would actually be huge for poker right now. What pro won't be chomping at the bit to play all the World Series events every year for the rest of time once someone demonstrates to them that, with skill, it is possible for a pro to navigate even the largest minefields in live tournaments? These days, you've suddenly got the many of the pros staying away from the smaller-buyin "donkaments" that comprise the ever-growing World Series of Poker, but if a known pro can win this tournament, I think it could actually spark pros' interest in playing in all the Series' events in the future. If you really know these poker pros, then you know that each and every one of them believes that if Phil Ivey can survive 6500 donks in one tournament, then so can they. Every single one of 'em. Anyways, it's something I would love to see for a lot of reasons and I think it could have an interesting aftermath just like Moneymaker's win back in 2003. But it won't be with Prahlad Friedman or Joe Sebok in 2009.

Another sad moment was later in the afternoon hours, when 2008's last remaining November Nine participant, Dennis Phillips, busted from the tournament in 45th place. He nabbed another $178k to go along with last year's 4.5M take from the Main Event. I don't know what it is about Phillips that seems to have made him such a fan favorite (myself included), but ultimately I suspect that it comes down to this feeling that Phillips is just an all-around good guy. It's certainly the aura I pick up from watching him play, talk in interview, etc.

A couple of hours later, just before the dinner break in fact, the last of the non-huge poker pros busted in 34th place in Blair Rodman. I never liked Kill Phil -- can't believe I paid money for that thing in fact -- but I do kinda like Blair Rodman nonetheless and I would have loved to see a guy who not only plays professional but wrote a well-known poker book and essentially crafted a known tournament poker strategy run deep in the biggest tournament of the year. When no name players were among the last few eliminations on the day, the action stopped around 10pm local time with 27 remaining in the field of the WSOP Main Event.

In a way, all of the eliminations above made things easy for me and probably for a whole bunch of others of you out there, because it really leaves only two names in the field who most of us will recognize and thus have any inherent level of interest in. Of course, the November Nine will be studied, vetted and pried into by the media in the coming months and we will be well aware of whatever stories lurk among the details, but I'm talking about inherent interest -- interest in how these guys do even before knowing anything new about them. In this case, those two players left in the final 27 players of the 2009 WSOP Main Event are Antonio "the Magician" Esfandiari -- another guy whose book I've read, and actually enjoyed for the most part -- and the immutable Phil Ivey. Who hasn't written a poker book unfortunately, but I imagine that's probably because he's too busy prop betting on poker, golf or anything else he can dream up to fulfill his fix.

When the action starts up for Day 8 on Wednesday at noon local time, Darvin Moon, who I believe was also chip leader after Day 6, will once again be in the top spot with 20.1M in chips. Billy Kopp is in second with 16M, and then there is a crush of eight different players in the 9M-12M range, including Phil Ivey who is currently in 4th of 27 with 11.3M.

Esfandiari is not in nearly as good of shape, currently in 20st of 27 with 4.5M in chips. That being said, the very favorable structure of the Main Event means that even someone near the bottom and significantly below average this late into a huge field still has plenty of play, as Round 29 will begin early on Wednesday, which features just a 10k ante and blinds of 50k-100k. So even the Magician in 20th place out of 27 remaining is sitting on almost 45 big blinds, meaning that he has plenty of time to wait for a good spot rather than get involved stealing with total crap. And that means that he will have more of an opportunity to use his skill advantage over the other players to make something happen for himself.

With just 27 players remaining in this 10k buyin event with nearly 6500 runners, we are playing for massive money with every elimination at this point. On Wednesday, those players eliminated from 19th-27th place will each receive $352,832 from the prize pool. Finishers 16 through 18 will each win $500,557, 13th-15th will take $633,022, and finally for today 10th through 12th place will each win $896,730 for their time. It's pretty awesome when you think about it, and although as anyone whose had some real deep tournament runs knows, it's always bittersweet, given a little bit of time everyone who is eliminated today will come to appreciate just how awesome this whole run has been, and how great the institution of the World Series of Poker really is. When the action begins today with 27 players remaining, the average chipstack will be 7.2 million, but as often happens very late in large tournaments when a few enormous stacks can really skew the overall average, only 11 of the 27 players are actually above that mark. So even the shorties around 4-5M like the Magician are still more than half of average. Plenty of room still to play some poker, and two pros whom we've all seen play huge with big, big money on the line are still lurking, one having some work to do and the other in fine shape.

From worldseriesofpoker.com, the Day 8 starting table assignments:

The Chick table (Leo Margets is the last woman alive in the 2009 WSOP Main Event):

Jesse Haabak - 2,750,000
Ian Tavelli - 4,385,000
James Calderaro - 6,475,000
Jonathan Tamayo - 3,300,000
Warren Zackey - 5,485,000
Eric Buchman - 10,005,000
Leo Margets - 1,530,000
Tommy Vedes - 5,070,000
James Akenhead - 8,615,000

The TV table (current chipleader plus Phil Ivey):

Phil Ivey - 11,350,000
Jeff Shulman - 10,170,000
George Caragiorgas - 1,615,000
Nick Maimone - 1,545,000
Andrew Lichtenberger - 5,625,000
Marco Mattes - 5,285,000
Joseph Cada - 6,565,000
Darvin Moon - 20,160,000
Jordan Smith - 4,510,000

The Magic table (Antonio Esfandiari plus current 2nd place in Billy Kopp):

Jamie Robbins - 9,795,000
Antonio Esfandiari - 4,470,000
Francois Balmigere - 1,440,000
Ludovic Lacay - 5,610,000
Steven Begleiter - 11,885,000
Ben Lamb - 9,410,000
Antoine Saout - 11,135,000
Kevin Schaffel - 11,245,000
Billy Kopp - 15,970,000

Pauly's coverage has been awesome as always, it's still the best way to follow along with the action for any casual observer of the game. I know I'll be responsible for about 150 hits on his site tonight, just me. Maybe I will see some of you there while I invent new ways to run bad on full tilt. Hey wait, didn't the Mookie used to be on Wednesday nights?

WSOP ME Day 6

Well, Day 6 saw two of the guys I would have most liked to see survive to the November Nine -- former ME champions Peter Eastgate and Joe Hachem -- both hit the rail late in the day as neither one could hold on and make an improbable second run through the monstrous field that the WSOP Main Event attracts each year these days. Ultimately, Eastgate was more of a fad with me, as I don't know anything about him, and the only poker I've ever really watched him play was the late stages of the 2008 WSOP when he got luckier than just about anyone I've ever seen who hasn't been playing me in an mtt since I returned from Las Vegas earlier this month. Hachem I have always had a good feeling for, first when he stormed through the 2004 WSOP ME field to win out against 6000-some runners, and then when I had the opportunity to sit next to him for a couple of hours in my first World Series of Poker tournament the following summer, when Hachem not only sucked out a 2-outer to eliminate me early from the tournament on the turn, but he took advantage of the short time we played together to really rub off on me an impression of a generally good, down to earth guy. If you've read here for a while you may recall my story of when the dealer failed to recognize Hachem -- then the reigning World Champion of Poker -- and Hachem was really cool about it in a spot when I guarantee you a bunch of other name pros would have sliced and diced the dealer in front of everybody. So Hachem and Eastgate are out, eliminating the last of the former world champions and meaning that we will definitely have a picture of a brand new face hanging up in the Amazon Room after this year's final table comes to an end in November.

After 6494 players put up $10,000 apiece to play in this year's WSOP Main Event, we are now down to just 64 players remaining as we head into Day 7 of action at the Rio. The payouts for the first players eliminated today will begin at over 100 large, and the plan for the day is apparently to play as long as it takes to get down to just 27 players remaining, which means that the final table-full of eliminations this evening will each be paid $253,941 for their efforts. Needless to say, with such an F-load of money waiting to be disbursed, there is a ton at stake here even for the shortest of short stacks with just a wing and a prayer to get back into things before it's too late.

And, although two of my favorites remaining were busted on Monday, among the 64 guys still standing are some fun names and some solid chipstacks to go along with it. The big story, almost since Day One, continues to be Phil Ivey -- he of the perpetually emotionless poker face -- as Ivey recovered from losing set-over-set early on Monday to now sit in 3rd place heading into the Day 7 action with over 6.3 million in chips. Also in the top ten remaining is another well-known-from-tv pro, Antonio Esfandiari, who has quietly been climbing up the leaderboard for days and now sits firmly perched in 6th place overall with 5.6 million in his stack, making for some fun possibilities right there as far as name pros to last this deep into one of the biggest poker tournaments of all time. Also still alive and kicking in the event among other people I have some interest in are last year's November Nine participant Dennis Phillips, currently in 43rd place of 64 remaining players with 2.3 million in chips, with Kill Phil co-author Blair Rodman right on Phillips's heels with 2.1 million. Young pros Joe Sebok and Prahlad Friedman round out the list of people still alive who I care at all about, each sitting in the bottom handful of stacks with under a million chips apiece to start the day.

The action begins again at 3pm ET on Tuesday, so be sure to keep checking in with Pauly, wsop.com or wherever else you are getting your real-time WSOP Main Event updates fix.

WSOP Main Event -- After Day Five

Unfortunately, the Main Event of the World Series of Poker got a lot more boring for me personally this weekend, with the eliminations on Days 3-5 of former champions Greg Raymer, Jesus Ferguson, Phil Hellmuth, Bobby Baldwin and Dan Harrington. Meanwhile, on the celebrity side, George Kostanza was also knocked out on Day 3, and even actor Lou Diamond Phillips, who managed to make it all the way to the very last hand of Day 5, got eliminated in 186th place before they packed it up for the night in the Rio when he got allin preflop with KK against AA and AA. Gotta love it.

As an aside, could we have had worse coverage across the major media outlets of Phil Hellmuth's bustout hand? Sure the guy is an absolute douchebag, but the simple fact remains that most of the people who care enough to read blogs for live updates of the main event will clearly want to know how Hellmuth busted, and more importantly, how he behaved when it happened. Based on last year's late elimination, my guess is not well. But, that's just a guess since basically nobody out there could tell me much of anything about how he busted. Hellmuth busted late on Day 4, within the last few eliminations of the day (I think), and all I was able to find anywhere was a simple statement that he was gone. No how, no when, no what he did. That's poor right there. I guess I read somewhere that ESPN was being kinda dick about controlling the information on the goings-on at their featured tv tables -- where I assume Hellmuth was playing, if ESPN's head is not up its ass -- but to not even be able to get a report on how the biggest public spectacle left in the Main Event busted from the tournament is just sad.



Anyways, on a positive note, there are still a good number of people who I would be interested in seeing final table this thing still alive as of the end of Day 5. Heading into Day 6, we have 185 runners remaining out of the 6494 who started, and we are already well into the money here, which started when we had 648 players remaining. At this point, most of the people who adopted a strategy of just waiting until the money back with seven or eight hundred players left are now long gone, and what we're left with is a field of 185 runners who are mostly going to be strong, aggressive players with their sights set not on moving up another payout plateau but rather amassing enough chips to final table the main event, thereby ensuring over one and a quarter million as a guaranteed payout in addition to sponsorship by one of the major poker sites to boot.

Although all those former Main Event champions above were eliminated over the weekend, a few still remain in the field of 185. Peter Eastgate, last year's Main Event champion, continued his huge recovery from around 8000 chips late on Day Two, closing the Day 5 action with 927k in chips. Eastgate will be seated along with Phil Ivey to start Day 6, who survived a set over set debacle early in the day to nearly double on his last hand on Day 5 when Ivey's pocket 8s held up against AQo. Eastgate's 927k in chips joins Ivey's 1.38 million-chip stack at Blue 18 in the Amazon Room, along with current tournament chip leader Warren Zackey, who currently holds 4.872 million chips.

Joe Hachem, the 2004 WSOP ME champion, will start Day 6 at Blue 38, sitting on 540k in chips, joined by J.C. Tran (720k) and last year's final tablist Dennis Phillips (1 million) as well as six other players whose names I do not recognize.

Other notable players still remaining in the field include David Benyamine, who will headline Blue 16 on Monday with 764k in chips. Prahlad Friedman is still alive, with 715k in chips, and will join Tom "Donkeybomber" Schneider (3.168 million) -- currenty in 4th place on the tournament leaderboard -- at Blue 20 to start the day. Blue 30 will also be an interesting stop for those covering the event, as Euro pro Bertran "ElkY" Grospellier (973k) and young pro Joe Sebok (992k) will begin the day at the same table and with very similar-sized stacks. Blue 44 will be another hotspot, where Antonio "the Magician" Esfandiari will start in third place at his table with 1.227 million in chips at a table that includes former top-ten chipstack in this event and apparent tax cheat Eric Cloutier. Blair Rodman, co-author of the popular Kill Phil poker strategy books, will be seated at Green 155 with 905k in chips along with eight names I do not recognize, so Rodman may be in good shape for the early allin and double in addition to many of the others I have named above.

With 185 runners remaining and 30k starting stacks, the average chipstack to start Day 6 should be 1.053 million. This means that most of the pros and other well-known players mentioned above will head into Monday's action at noon PT with at least around average stacks. Even those with 750k or so are just a few blind-and-ante steals away from average, so there is plenty of play left for the big guns remaining in the 2009 WSOP. Looking at the money to be awarded, those who finish between 185th and 163rd will receive $36,626, while 100th-162nd are slated to get $40,288, and then after that the payouts will climb approximately every table (nine spots) from there, starting at $47,003 for 91st to 99th place, $57,991 for 82nd to 90th place, $68,979 for 73rd to 81st, and $90,344 for 64th to 72nd. Once we reach 55th to 63rd we will cross the six-figure plateau at $108,047, while 46th to 54th will pay $138,568, 37th to 45th $178,857, and 28th to 36th, $253, 941, over the quarter million mark. My guess is that they won't get to this level on Monday, but there will still small fortunes to be won with every flip of the river by the time Monday's action heads into the late hours.