Friday, November 09, 2007

Updated BBTwo Odds

The good news is that I ended Thursday night up about 3 hundy thanks to some soft-ass 2-4 cash tables on full tilt. I did not lose any major pots the entire night, and I didn't chase draws and avoided almost all the tough decisions. God it feels good to record a really solid session at the cash games, doesn't it?

Bad news: Pretty much everything else. Well, I guess I shouldn't say it quite like that. At 9pm ET on Thursday I played in FTOPS #2, the $322 razz limit tournament. There were 679 runners vying for a first prize of I think $43,000-something, and to be honest I was basically dreading this thing long before it started. I have had good times and some decent success in razz tournaments in the past, but let's be honest: playing razz is like having your nuts slowly squashed by two continental plates crunching together an inch a year into a mountain. It sucks. It blows. More often than not, to me anyways, limit Razz is more like punishment than fun. So I really, truly was wishing I wasn't even in this thing before it went off, but I had satellited in so I was determined to sit down and tough it out.

And I'm happy to report, I did not maim anyone in my family, my apartment building, or even my own self, despite playing for nearly four hours in the tournament. And it was typical full tilt razz too, with literally (AA)3 the very first hand I received, (89)8 the third hand, and (KK)Q on the fourth, plus some delicious rolled-up Aces about an hour in, and rolled-up Queens during hour 4. About 3 1/2 hours in, I won my biggest pot of the night when this ahole who had been talking smack the whole night long I guess put me on a bluff, and ended up bet-calling the entire way, including the end, with his 9-low. Unfortunately for him, I was strong the whole way and ended up showing a downright wheel by the time 7th came down. My stack was up to around 9500 chips, easily my largest stack of the night, but unfortunately that's where it would top out. I actually had a very typical performance overall for a razz tournament, where I hung around and avoided chasing or playing any large pots early without made hands or very strong draws, and eventually I managed to amass a decent sized stack, staying around the middle of the pack almost from start to finish despite a surge into the top 20 in chips early in the first hour.

Eventually, though, with the limits at 600-1200, I bet on every street with three strong starting cards and a made 7 on 6th street, and some chasedonkey called me from behind on every single street, showing two bricks after 5th, eventually rivering me with an Ace to claim the pot with a better 7 that required using all three of his hidden cards. Unfortunately, with the blinds what they were and me betting from ahead on every street, the hand left me crippled, and a few minutes later I found myself in 119th place out of 121 players remaining. Ugh. 80 spots would pay, but it was going to be very far from possible for me to coast in any way with my stack decimated like it was, down at around 3000 chips with limits of 600-1200. Basically any bet from me on any street, and I was committed with the hand, which is exactly what did me in when I ended up pushing on 3rd street with a 4 showing, and a K2 underneath. Shitty hand no doubt, but I ended up getting called by a guy showing an Ace, and even though I moved ahead briefly on 5th street thanks to this idiot calling me with a Ten underneath his Aces, a Queen on 6th and a King on 7th did me in, again in typical razz format. So I was out in the low 120s, a strong performance out of 679 runners, but still 40-some spots from the cash, so chalk it up as another disappointment so far, two for two for me in FTOPS VI.

I had a similar experience in riverchasers on Thursday, where I won some big pots and played very well for a good hour or two. And by "very well", I mean I did not get instacalled by a horrific joke of a hand and then beaten down on by the full tilt rng. Eventually, however, I got set up two hands in a row, one where I lost TPTK to an overpair, and the second where my overpair 9s on a raggy flop lost to overpair Tens, and I went from middle-bottom of the pack to out just like that somewhere in the low 40s I believe, out of 107 runners on the night. The thing is, 100 minutes in to the tournament like that, the blinds were just too high and my stack just too low for me to be laying down things like TPTK and overpairs in the spot I was in. I could have folded and preserved my chances to hit a miracle sometime after that, but I like those two plays by me and chalk it up to just bad luck at the wrong time. Anyways, I think I saw that LuckTruck took this one down, to go along with DNasty from the Mookie on Wednesday, so that wraps up week 3 of the BBTwo, and the first 10 seats to the Tournament of Champions for the 18k Aussie Millions prize package for two.

It is mildly interesting to me that of our first ten BBTwo Tournament of Champions winners, there have been as yet no repeaters. I guess that's not really all that interesting though, as if you think about it how often do we have someone win two out of 10 consecutive blonkaments, right? Not bloody often. Throw in the additionally larger fields in every one of the BBTwo tournaments, and those odds become even lower. So ten winners in ten BBTwo events is not really all that surprising at all I suppose when you think about it. But with all the fun I've been having making some Pick 5 picks in connection with the BBTwo, and certainly the fun we've been having over at Lucko's blog in picking our top 3 out of 4 horseys for each tournament, I've been thinking a lot of how to pick who's going to win these things with any kind of meaningful confidence level. And I've come to an important conclusion:

Trying to pick who is going to win a large-field low-buyin blonkament on a given night is ghey. Plain and simple. These things are so luck-based, again especially given the larger fields during BBTwo time, that it is simply not meaningful to try to predict with anything but a total-guess confidence level who will take the whole thing down on a given night. Lucko's system of adding up the final finishing places of your 3 best horsyes and then the lowest total wins eliminates this problem somewhat, but in the end I am much more concerned with who's going to win the ToC seats than I am who will have the lowest average finishing score of their 3 best-placing choices. So I have a different method I'm rolling out today: I am going to post odds of some of the individual players' chances of winning at least one of the 17 remaining ToC seats at some point during the remaining of the BBTwo. Not someone's odds of winning tonight or on any given night, which is really ridiculous and purely luck-based when it comes down to it, but someone's odds of winning themselves a set over the next five weeks seems like a much more sensible prediction to undertake.

So here goes. FYI I will only be including odds for people who have not yet already won their seat, even though I think it quite likely that a Lucko or a xxMagicianxx or a Loretta will bust out with another BBTwo victory before all is said and done. Also, I am only posting odds for players who seem to be playing in most of the BBTwo tournaments. Lastly, I am only including a very partial list of players below; there are obviously many bloggers and non-bloggers alike who have every bit as good (or better) of a shot of winning a BBTwo event as the people listed below. But these are the people I have chosen to rate the odds of, so deal with it. And if I did not rate you below, then that means that I either forgot about you or I think your odds of winning a ToC seat are worse than 40 to 1, which if you think about it still isn't that bad given the size of the fields and the fact that there are still 17 BBTwo tournaments remaining:

Odds Against Winning at Least One ToC Seat During the Rest of BBTwo:

Hoyazo: 30 to 1 against winning a ToC seat. Yes I do love to beat down on the blonkeys, but lately I am not seeing success in these things and have been repeatedly running into fonkeys who instacall me down with known garbage just to try to get a mention in the ensuing rant. Of course this phenomenon could result in me constantly playing from huge stacks and insurmountable chip leads day in and day out in the BBTwo tournaments, but I've come to realize that when you get allin as an 80% favorite 14 times an hour in a blonkament, the inevitable 3 or 4 beats you suffer every hour will eventually cripple you.

Bayne: 10 to 1 against winning a ToC seat. Bayne has sucked donkey balls so far in the BBTwo, but then in this week's Riverchasers he suddenly busted out with a 3rd place finish, the first real noise he's made in the BBTwo as yet. So I look for a lot of people to be taking him as their horseys next week, and with how hard he crushed everyone in BBT1, look for Bayne to threaten at least a few more times before all is said and done in December.

Blinders: 40 to 1. Too tight. An especially tough quality against the large fields.

Waffles: 35 to 1. With 17 shots left, it's still pretty much a longshot for anyone to actually win one of these things, but there is also enough time for some people to get on a good streak one night and run with it. Normally I don't think Waffles' game is quite calm or refined enough to be confident about winning here, but he's shown that he can do it, winning both a Hoy and a Mookie earlier this year. Started off the BBTwo playing well, but has faltered a bit of late. But you only need to win once!

Gary Cox: 30 to 1. Despite his normally squeaky-tight image among the blogger crew, Gary has been opening up a bit and seeing some good performances as a result over the last few weeks of blonkaments. It's always a challenge for a tight player to bust out with an outright victory in one of these donkfests, especially given the large BBTwo fields, but Gary has been defying the odds and getting out to some nice chip leads recently and more of the same could be in his near future.

riggstad: 25 to 1. Although I have only known Jim for the better part of this year, he has already impressed with some of his blonkament runs. I would have his odds even higher than 25 to 1 if not for the fact that I don't recall Jim actually winning out in any of the big blonkaments yet this year, which to be fair he has not been playing for more than a few months in most cases. Still Jim has an above-average shot of playing his way into the Aussie Millions ToC as far as I'm concerned.

Perticelli: 25 to 1. I hope I got Pert's name right, but he is the only over Riverchasers guy I would include on this list other than riggstad. Pert has played well in several recent blogger tournaments, including wins or near-wins in both the Mookie and the Riverchasers over the past few weeks as I recall, and there really is no reason to believe that his aggressive brand of poker can't lead him back to the promised land in one of those two tournaments one more time this year.

Buddydank: 15 to 1. Buddy plays tight, solid poker and has shown that he has a winning formula for the blonkaments. He has a decent shot of winning 1 out of 17 shots left.

MiamiDon: 25 to 1. Don seems to be amassing a lot of big stacks early and lasting fairly deep in most of the BBTwo events. Better than average chance of taking one down like his incredible streak of three straight big blonkaments just as the first BBT was kicking off.

Emptyman. 35 to 1. I really like Emptyman's game, but the absence of HORSE from the BBTwo schedule works against this multi-game specialist. Still, he's shown that he can amass some large stacks in the blonkaments, and that's the first step towards taking one of these things down.

LJ: 25 to 1. Over the past year pvanharibo has shown her growing prowess at nlh tournaments. Although she has not had a tremendous amount of success in the regular blonkaments, that success is coming in little bits and she will always be a threat to make a big score.

Julius Goat: 25 to 1. The Goat hasn't made his big splash yet in the BBTwo, but he's been putting together a bunch of nice plays and building his chips stacks with fair regularity as a result. Goat really knows how to play the game and has demonstrated success in previous blonkey tournaments. Something tells me he will be a factor in this thing before all is said and done.

cmitch: 15 to 1. Cmitch is one of the best all-around tournament and cash guys out there, and he has the aggression level combined with the raw poker skill to be a real threat to win in every blonkament he plays in. I definitely give cmitch good odds of winning one a seat into the BBTwo ToC.

ckbluffer: 40 to 1. I haven't played enough with CK to really be able to make an informed opinion about her tournament play yet, but putting aside that A6 play that donked my AK or whatever out of the MATH a few weeks back, CK seems adept at getting paid off and building a nice stack in the blonkaments. Until I see a big performance it's hard to be too confident here, but CK is playing most of the events and definitely seems to know how to play the game.

jamyhawk: 30 to 1. I don't know exactly why, but I have this feeling that Jamy is going to take down one of the large events before this thing is all said and done. Jamy's aggressive game has done it for him before in at least one if not multiple Mookie victories and he cannot be counted out in the BBTwo, despite no deep runs yet in the first three weeks of the challenge.

RecessRampage: 35 to 1. Alan is one of the best players in our group IMO. But he's gotten off to a horrible start in BBTwo and like me has very little to show for the first few weeks of the tournament series. That said, Alan has won blonkaments in the past, and it's only a matter of time before he regains his old form, which could happen any day here during the next five weeks of the BBTwo.

StB: 25 to 1. StB has had a lot of success historically against the bloggers, albeit mostly focused on last year and not so much in 2007. Still, he seems to be getting back into the swing of things at just the right time with 17 BBTwo tournaments still left on the schedule, getting some late chipleads in a few recent blonkaments, and we know the man knows how to finish the deal when he gets close.

Pirate Wes: 20 to 1. Wes plays very tight early in most of the bonkaments, but he has proven himself very adept at gearing up in the later stages of things. With a couple of deep, deep runs in the recent blonkaments, Wes is definitely on a hot streak at the right time heading into the rest of the BBTwo.

KOD: 30 to 1. Normally this is where I would link to Chad's blog, but it appears that Chad may have deleted his blog yet again here this morning as I peruse my normal blogspot sites to view. If so, that's the gheyest thing I've ever heard. In any event, Chad is obviously a completely dominatory poker tournament player and basically could run circles around mostly every other blogger in his sleep as far as overall mtt performance. But he plays way too aggro at the beginning and middle stages of the blonkaments, and gets frustrated almost as easily as I do, which is what keeps Chad from having a very high chance of winning one of the next 17 events.

NewinNov: 40 to 1. Newin has one like 55 Mookie tournaments over the past couple of years, so even though he is highly aggro and yet loves to limp those high pocket pairs from early position, what he's doing obviously works well in the blonkaments. The reason Newin is down to 40-to-1 is that he does not seem to be playing in all the events, which is never good when there are only 17 chances left to win that Tournament of Champions seat.

Columbo: 20 to 1. Columbo is a serious contender to take down one of the BBTwo blonkaments, as he has seen his performance consistently improving over the past year or two of playing more and more regularly with the bloggers. Although he hasn't made the big score yet during the BBTwo, he always seems to be lurking with a big stack at some point in these event, and he's had much success in the Hoy and other regular tournaments that make up the BBTwo challenge. Look for Columbo at a final table near you soon in the BBTwo.

Drizz: 25 to 1. Drizz is a great tournanment player, and if the BBTwo schedule featured more mixed games and less no-limit holdem, then Drizz would be as good a pick as anyone. I still think Drizz has a good chance of making his move in one of the next 17 tournaments in the series, so 25 to 1 seems like a good compromise for a strong player who is really more of a mixed game specialist.

Smizmiatch: 35 to 1. The Gnome is another of the great poker players in our group of ghey bloggers, but he focuses his game much more on cash than on tournaments. As such, smiz has not gotten to experience too much in the way of big blonkament scores this year. So the 35 to 1 odds here reflect more a lack of success in the specific blonkaments involved in the BBTwo and less any comment on his actual poker skills, which are quite strong. I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see the Gnome at the ToC when push comes to shove.

Surflexus: 10 to 1. Surf is definitely one of the crown jewels of the bloggers to win one of the remaining 17 BBTwo tournaments. He is an excellent player, gets lucky with the best of 'em and knows how to get paid off when he does. He has had consistent, repeated blonkament success over a period of a few years, and seems to be playing in most of the tournaments in the series. There is a good chance of a Surf victory sometime in the next five weeks, so I would not bet against Surf being there for the ToC in late December.

Katitude: 35 to 1. Kat has quietly been sneaking into the final 10 or 20 players in several blonkaments lately. Kat will need to ramp up the aggression in order to win one of these events outright, but she's been putting herself in good positions to do so, and most importantly, she has been playing in most of the events which of course does a lot for her chances of winning a ToC seat before the BBTwo is over in five weeks.

Al: 25 to 1. For all his talk about not being much of a tournament player, Al has had some good success in getting deep in the BBTwo tournaments. With a Mookie and a Riverchasers win already under his belt in 2007, you cannot count this guy out of winning his seat in the BBTwo Aussie Millions ToC.

Joe Speaker: 30 to 1. Joe is a great player but has not put it together for many blonkament victories in the recent past that I can recall. I'm sure some of that has to do with his not being able for the games due to his family life as well as being on the west coast, and some of that may come into play during the BBTwo as well as I don't think I see Joe every night there is a BBTwo blonkament going down. Still, when he plays Joe is a formidable opponent and has the right temperament and understanding of the game to run to victory on any given night.

Fuel55: 25 to 1. Fuel probably plays higher stakes than anyone who has been in most of the BBTwo tournaments so far, and I can personally attest to the fact that Fuel is making a concerted effort to perform well in these tournaments and get into the Aussie Millions ToC. Although he can let his aggression get away from him on occasion in big spots in the blonkaments, the guy has won several of these before and is certainly a force to be reckoned with in every blonkament going forward in the BBTwo. One of the few guys who really could go out any night and win whatever tournament is running, regardless of field size or buyin level.

Mookie: 25 to 1. Mookie is another guy who people might not necessarily think of when they think about guys likely to win out in the large blonkaments, but secretly Mook has been putting together a string of deep runs in our regular weekly games. Mookie seems to have mastered the art of playing tight but knowing when to make moves, and when to act like he's making moves when he's really got a strong hand. Plus, he eliminates me from every tournament I play in.

TripJax: 20 to 1. Trip was the overall money leader from BBT1, and he came up with the name "BBTwo" (and BBThree for that matter) all by himself as it is, so you know the guy is serious. Although Trip hasn't won a BBTwo tournament yet, he's already made a couple of deep runs and put together some large chipstacks late in a few of the events he has been in. With his BBT1 performance it is hard to imagine Trip not being part of the ToC by the time late December rolls around.

Irongirl: 40 to 1. IG has recently returned from self-imposed exile from full tilt, and she has been performing well so far. She has made the top 25% points in I think at least two of the BBTwo tournaments so far, and has been playing well since her time away from ftp to play on other, inferior sites. The big thing working against Iron is that I don't recall her ever actually winning the Hoy, the Mook or the Riverchasers so far, so I'm not sure she has shown that she can really go all the way in one of these things as is required to win a seat into the ToC.

Astin: 20 to 1. We all know about Astin's penchant for being dealt big premium starting hands, and as I've mentioned here previously Astin has a good knack for finding ways to get paid off with those hands. Astin has been deep already several times in the BBTwo, and I would not be surprised to see him at the Aussie Millions ToC when the smoke clears on the BBTwo around year's end.

Fluxer: Not.

OK that's all for today, hope this is even half as fun to read as I had writing this stuff.

This weekend btw I like the Bills -3 at Miami and KC -3 at home against Denver as real bona fide picks, and I like Pittsburgh -10 at home against the Browns as a contra pick because with how much Cleveland scores, I would expect that the 10 point line looks awfully huge to most of the public, and thus it is likely to actually win out. Hopefully somebody silly enough to bet on sports can do something fun or useful with those ideas.

FTOPS #3 is Friday night at 9pm ET on full tilt, the $216 pot-limit holdem tournament. This starts at the same time as Kat's Friday night donkament, also at 9pm ET on full tilt (password as always is "donkarama"), where I will surely be with about $50 set aside for auto-double rebuys, probably all of which will be needed given my luck generally in this thing. And then on Sunday at 6pm ET you can also look for me in FTOPS #7, the $322 buyin nlh tournament with a $1 million guarantee, which I have also qualified already for and where I hope to make a big score or at least to record some form of fucking cash in FTOPS VI this time around. Come root me on or boo me in the chat sometime if you're around, I always love the cheering section on the rail.

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Blogger lucko said...

Can I put $100 on every single blogger you mentioned winning a TOC seat?

4:20 AM  
Blogger StB said...

Those are some kinds words considering how I donkes out of the Mookie this week. Had a chance to close it but went from 1st to out in 3 hands, playing poorly in 2.

4:27 AM  
Blogger bayne_s said...

Clearly you went back this morning and edited my odds to remove a zero based on a single performance.

Lucko may be onto something wagering on all 30 entrants in listed field. Only 2 of us at 10:1. 2 of other 28 cash lucko is BE or ahead

4:51 AM  
Blogger Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

Sorry Lucko, I forgot my disclaimer, that these odds are for entertainment purposes only. No wagers accepted over at hammerplayer.

5:05 AM  
Blogger RaisingCayne said...

Thanks for not posting: RaisingCayne: 1,000,000:1!

A glance at the leaderboard shows I'm the front-runner for the BBT2 Gigli award! (If there was such a prize.)

I told you those MATH wins months ago were a complete aberration!

I agree that Bayne and Surflexus are likely due! They seem to play well consistently lately.

6:21 AM  
Blogger Gnome said...

I'm happy with 35:1 odds. No problem!

10:38 AM  
Blogger Julius_Goat said...

Love the description of razz. Beeeeauty.

10:59 AM  
Blogger cmitch said...

Thanks for the shout out but my odds are way too low - especially since I've only played 3 of the tourneys.

GL in the FTOPS events - you are due for a big score.

11:51 AM  
Blogger Craig Cunningham said...

Now depressed that there are no odds on the player with the highest average score yet to win their seat (minimum two events played)...

1:33 AM  
Blogger Drizztdj said...

I hear one of the BBTwo tournies keeps changing its format weekly...

Just saying.

Half way through the tourney last night on X-Chat:

Drizztdj: Damn, this seems like a turbo!

wwonka: That's because it is.

5:25 AM  
Blogger Chad C said...


2:05 PM  

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