Cash Game Question
And out of nowhere we're back to a poker question about a cash game hand I recently ran into. I am interested in any of your thoughts on this because there was some disagreement around the table as to the right play to make in this hand. And I will not disclose for now which if any of the players involved was me, because the answer should not be in any way dependent on my level of involvement in the hand but rather purely the poker elements of the situation. I am hopeful that some of our cash game friends can weigh in with what they would do in this spot as I think it an interesting situation that we all have found ourselves in from time to time in some form or another.
OK so you're playing in a $5-$10 no-limit holdem ring cash game, with all the stacks fairly large. The game can be classified as a fairly tough game with mostly good players, mostly fairly tight and aggressive types generally typical of a 5-10 game in my experience. UTG+1 limps for $10. UTG+2 also limps for $10. You are UTG+3 with 88, and you opt to raise 5x to $50. The button reraises to $150. The small blind calls the $150 cold. The first two limpers fold to the $150 double-raise. There is $380 in the pot and it is $100 to you to call with your pocket 8s. As the other two players both have larger stacks than yours (all more than 100 big blinds), you opt to call the reraise and do a little set mining.
The flop comes AQ5 rainbow. The big blind checks, you check given the Ace on board, and the button checks as well.
The turn is an offsuit King. Again the big blind checks. You check as well, knowing you must be behind with all that action before the flop. The button checks as well.
On the river falls an 8, giving you the rivered set. Now the big blind bets out for $200 into the $480 pot.
What do you do here? Personally I believe decent arguments can be made for all kinds of different moves here, but I am interested in what move you support, and at least as importantly, why, and if you think a raise is in order, how much do you think is the right amount to raise, and again why.
Tomorrow I will be back with some analysis and what actually happened in this spot.
Labels: Cash Game Strategies, Cash Games, Hand Analysis, Harrington, Playing at the River
posted by Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo @ 8:24 PM
26 Comments:
I know your questions is asking about the river , but I must say that I prob wouldn't have raised preflop to $50 , although I don't hate it,however with the $150 raise and call before u, I def hate u calling the 150 with 88..i can't imagine that either of those 2 have 22-77 , so at best your coin flipping and perhaps even worse...however , once the river comes , I prob check call , its very possible one of them has a higher set
oh, and u hooking me up with the transfer ? I missed what I wanted to play yest , but perhaps next sun
I don't hate the PF call, especially with the BB cold-calling the 3-bet. But I would want the effective stacks to be at least 150 BBs though.
As far as river is, just don't fold, but I'd lean toward jamming. The only hand you are worried about is JT there (And maybe maybe QQ if he is really really tight). AA and KK and probably QQ would 4-bet that PF.
I think a call is the bset option given that your opponents' ranges have to be tilted towards QQ+. Three higher sets crush you, and it's not impossible that the button re-raised with JT sooted (although I'd discount that possibility pretty heavily). So if the stacks are deep, this is not a spot I'm going nuts with a rivered bottom set, which truly is only a bluff-catcher in this situation.
-PL
I'd flat call the $200 on the river.
Set mining is always right with a chance at 200BB+ but it doesn't mean you need to go broke when you hit your set.
Obviously AK, AQ, AA, KK, QQ are all within both player's ranges.
Assuming the first player has the tightest range (TT+, AQs+, AQo+) and the overcaller of $150 on a slightly wider more speculative range (77+, ATs+, KQs, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, AQo+), a set of 8's is still 60%+ against these ranges. The question becomes "is the $200 bet equating the portion of the range you beat or the portion of the range you don't ... ?"
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this might sound awful to all of you but I fold PF to the 150. but since the question is what do i do on the river- My awnser is call. the value bet of 200 and I compleatly think my set of eights is beat! a hand that is betting here on the river of a fourway pot i believe the posibility of QQ KK AA i guess TJ is not really a posability - but for the same reason he who might of holded TJ waited for the bored not to pair w/ nut st8 is the same reason i cant see raising- AA KK QQ are all real posibilites. CALL!
Umm I would just flat-call.
it's a 3-way pot, do u think the bet of about half the pot could be wanting to induce a raise?
or maybe the guy has like 99 and we're all silly.
In reading this, for some reason, I'm not even worried about the small blind's hand. He cold-called preflop, and my insticts put him on a big AK,AQ. He has two-pair, in my opinion.
I'm afraid of the re-raise from the button and then having things checked down. He could be the one with a higher set and is simply slow-playing. Or he has JJ,TT.
A call here I think is warranted, because the button will raise if he has you beat and fold if he doesn't.
"A call for information" is better than a "raise for information" in this particular case.
Again, all IMHO.
I haven't read the other comments, but I only call. I don't fold, but I don't raise, either. Here's why:
• Trust, the button re-raised, which could just be a button thing. But if the players are mostly tight, he must have something. Still, because the button re-raised, I'm not going to look for monsters under the bed here and fold.
• A-A, Q-Q and K-K are all possible here. I would almost guess K-K, given that he might have checked given the Ace on the board and then when the K fell on the turn, he probably wasn't worried about draws (unless someone had J-10, unlikely in this spot) given the offsuits and thought he might check-raise on the turn and also because everyone checked the flop so he's worried he'll lose everyone by betting out here.
• I don't like to raise on the river unless I know I'm ahead, and that's really tough to know here.
P.S. I don't like raising in EP with a pair of 8s. I just call there, especially given the limpers behind me.
Let's see, after you pop to $50, there's $85 in the pot. If the button flat called, there'd be $135, laying pretty good odds for the blinds and limpers to call as well. The PF re-raise is a means of thinning the herd. $140 into $235 is a tougher call to make for the BB and limpers. Of course, with the SB calling, making it $380, it becomes less about odds and more about stack % for the limpers on drawing hands against 3 players who obviously have something decent.
So why is he isolating? QQ+ is reasonable, but I think a bit tight of a range to put him on. I'm not really feeling the higher set here based on the lack of betting once the K hit. A straight is only a possibility of someone has JT.
The safest move is the flat call, but my gut reaction was to raise another $280. It doubles the pre-river pot (for you) if you get a call, and should be scary as an "I want a call" bet to anyone who has less than a set. I think you're against two pair here, and if it's a straight, you'll get repopped and know it.
Then again, I don't play $5/10, and see nothing but terrible calls and plays with craptacular hands, so I'm biased towards expecting nothing.
The action I hate worst on the way this hand played out is the button's reraise pre and check on the flop.
I am inclined to rule out QQ because he has to bet his set with the Ace also appearing on flop. So checking says AA, KK, JJ or possibly TT.
I probably minraise river but will fold to button reraise and call SB reraise.
I do not get why three people checked down here.. I mean that is insane in a 5/10 game. Nobody wanted to take a shot? I thought in these big games flopped sets bet out to disguise their hands. I think you have the best hand here and sucked out to some overcards like AJ/AQ something like that. I personally put in a re-raise and probably call a jam but I suck at cash sooooo who knows. I do admit the small river bet is kind of suspicious so a call while a bit pussy might not be bad. Fuck it though it is a cash game! Go for broke brotha! You called the pre-flop bet to hit a set, you hit your set, now go for it.
this is going to be one of those horrid stoy where the other guy betting had AA and the 88 SHOVED or the 88 called and the other guy had a pair of twos.
Is it scared money not to reraise with a set of eights? seems to be a popular opinion as of the last few comments. This is5 10NL
An addendum. I think, like Bayne, that QQ is unlikely here. It makes no sense that QQ doesn't bet somewhere along the line. KK is unlikely for the SB, but maybe not the button, although it seems a pretty bad move for KK to check in position on the flop, since it leaves them with ZERO information.
So that leaves AA, JJ and maybe TT as possible hands. I suppose JTs is a REMOTE possibility, but not really, based on the description of the table.
So essentially, you're only concerned about AA here flopping top set. I stand by my gut of a $280 raise (essentially Bayne's minraise) on the river here. You get called by anything weaker than you (and maybe even QQ or KK), and re-raised by AA (or the remote JT), which you can then get away from. The SB bet here really feels like "well, SOMEBODY has to take a stab at this".
As much as I feel like the small blind doesn't have a better hand, I think a call is in order. I can't think of many worse hands that would call a raise from you.
A solid player's range from the SB would be limited to AK-AQ and QQ in a normal online game. Unless he's a total fish, he should not be calling preflop with less than that. But if he is a fish, his JT (or QQ) could crush you.
WORLD FUCKIN' CHAMPIONS!!!
I would just call in this spot. Shrike nailed it right on the head.
I'm going nuts with a rivered bottom set, which truly is only a bluff-catcher in this situation.
If you are never one to fold to a re-raise then a call is truly your only option.
Tough game....tight and aggressive players....I think your probably behind here, and stinks of the typical 'setup'. I'd call, but I wouldn't be happy about it.
This is B&M? It's kind of a sick spot. I honestly don't feel like we know enough about the players to make a good decision. Based only on what we do know, I reluctantly put the sb on 2 pair and the button on tens or jacks. So I raise. How much? Again, I really wish I knew more about the players. I probably make it 500 to go with a plan to call any 3-bet from the sb but to fold to any reraise from the button.
no offense but all this limping calling up front doesn't exactly scream TAGish villains, unless of course everyone is super deep. the question really is how deep, 150bbs? 200-300bbs? More?
i think the only hand you are behind here is QQ and JT. that sure would be a ghely played QQ, and i think JT is extremely unlikely for someone to call 3bs cold out of the blinds with (unless maybe you are playing 500bbs+), so QQ is the only hand that has you beat IMHO.
i def think a raise is in order, but we need to know exactly how big the stax are in order to determine the amount of the raise.
oh and if the button 3b's your raise...he's plain retarded.
i think that the X5 raise with 88 it too risky from your position i a table with aggressive opponents. I think a limp was better.
At the End you have to call due the odds but i would't reraise. The Action of the player in Position ( with the preflop reraise) suggest an high pair. On that board you have any sort of high cards!!!
Maybe he has played it slowly after the flop to try to win more.
sorry for my poor english!
Easy call with 4th nuts.... Guy could easily have AA, KK, QQ, JT given the way this hand played out. Even if you move in on the river odds are you are only getting called by a hand that murders you, I just can't see the value in a shove here..... All one pair hands fold, and all two pair hands probably fold except top two.
Jeez, it's gotta be temping to raise here - but I can't see a scenario, if both villains are competent, where you can get any value in a raise - they won't pay you off with two pair when you raise (they may overcall with that holding, but should fold to a raise) or fold a set (even smart TAGs have a problem folding a set on a board like this given action) If you think you can get a set to fold here, then well played, but that's probably overly optimistic.
But, raising leaves yourself open to either get valuetowned and threebet by the JT or AA-QQ one of these guys can easily have, or, they could get frisky and bluff-raise you off your hand (because you really can't call a threebet here.. and a bold villain full of gambool would know that, or at least gambool that you don't have JT...)
Flat the river lede, just in case SB is taking a shot at the pot, even though it smells like a value bet (or a missed C/R on the turn). If button raises and SB folds, soul read and maybe, maybe call if you think button's capable of a move. If SB flats that raise or threebets, turbomuck and just tip your hat if you got outplayed. Honestly, though, I think you have the third best hand here more often than not.
Probably an ubernit viewpoint, but I swear, in a live cash game, when you convince yourself they can't have that holding.. they probably do.
Preflop fine, BTW.
I would never raise this river. I would just call because I don't know what the guy behind me has either. It's very conceivable that they have a higher set but they might have 2 pair. But with 3 players in the hand, I'm not crazy about trying to get my money in. Let's say I call and the button shoves and the first guy who bets out $200 calls the shove, I would fold.
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