Monday, December 01, 2008

Early Tournament Hand Analysis Question

So it's early in the first hour of the nightly 50-50 on pokerstars (this is actually a 70k guaranteed tournament nowadays, I just always call it the 50-50 still). The Hero is basically right around where he started it at 3000 chips, and the blinds are 25-50. UTG+2 opts to limp with JTs. The player in the cutoff seat raises the 50-chip blind to 150, and all other players fold. Hero (UTG+2) opts to call the 150 with his JTs.

The flop comes KT9 rainbow. Hero checks his inside straight draw to the preflop raiser, who leads out for 300 into the 375-chip pot. Hero opts to call, admittedly a somewhat loose call as he's got nothing much so far, but thinking that his second pair could be good here and he has an inside straight draw and a backdoor flush draw as well to boot.

The turn brings a miracle Queen, filling Hero's inside straight. This time Hero opts to lead out for 600 into the pot which currently contains 975 chips before the turn betting begins. The Villian calls, making the pot 1575 chips heading into the river, and leaving roughly 2300 chips in each player's stack.

An offsuit 9 falls on the river, pairing the board. Hero leads out for 800 chips with his straight, and the Villain min-raises him to 1600.

What should the Hero do here? I am happy to get your comments on the play of the other streets as well, which I am not saying were perfect by any means, but I am most interested in your thoughts on Hero's move at the river here. Although this is a real hand that occurred, I do not want to disclose my involvement in the hand because that should not impact anyone's rational decision as to the optimal move to make in this spot. Please leave your answers in the comments and as always I will be back tomorrow with the outcome and some discussion.

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Blogger BadBlood said...

I think it's a fold, but could very well be player dependent. River raises to me are indicative of very strong hands, so what do you beat?

You beat trip T's, lose to AJ and any boats. You still have 1500 in chips if you fold which is still playable at 25/50.

This is a very "polarized" hand-range for your opponent, pure bluff or immense strength - no middle ground.

I hate bet-folding, but I think it may be correct here. Very interested in the results.

9:49 PM  
Blogger pokerpeaker said...

You're probably beat here, unless the guy is running some sort of stupid bluff. Still, I don't know if you can fold here given the odds you're getting to call. It's only 800 more into a pretty significant pot.

I would not have bet the river. I would have check called when that 9 came down.

I call because of the odds and because you do have a hand, but it's not a good call, IMO. The only two things that makes me call here are the obvious pot odds and the fact that he did not raise you on the turn, which might actually be a good play by him given that he figured he might have been drawing by then.

11:32 PM  
Blogger HighOnPoker said...

I know you want to focus on the river, but I think the problem for the hero really comes up on the turn. Instead of betting out, I think the better play would be to check-raise all-in. Even if it goes check-check, at least the Hero has an indication that the initial raiser does not have a monster hand. From what I see, though, the initial raiser may've hit a set, so you could end up all-in on the turn. Even though that scenario will result in a suckout, at least the money went in when ahead.

At the river, you've already put 1850 into the pot, leaving you with approximately 1150. If you call that additional 800, you are practically all-in. That's why this is a tough decision. 1150 is survivable, but 350 really isn't. I'd have to fold and assume my opponent made the full house on the river. At least then I'd have enough chips to chip back up.

11:39 PM  
Blogger Shrike said...

I second the comment about putting in a healthy CRAI on the turn, which eliminates a tough decision on a future street if you just take the pot down there. As played, I think you have to find a fold.


12:11 AM  
Blogger Fuel55 said...

Villian is unlikely to bet a set on the turn with the board as scary as it is. He wants to get to showdown cheaply. His flat call is pretty bad too if he has a set.

12:57 AM  
Blogger columbo (at eifco dot org) said...

I am willing to make a crying call here based on the fact that it is early and I cant see the boat clearly. But I can't shove because of the AJ scenario.

Players will raise FTA with any hand they play. Lets say he has AJ. raise, c-bet, makes nuts on turn and is not worried about the board pairing at the river. Highly plausible.

If he had a set and you LEAD OUT on the turn, why not raise there instead of calling the draw heavy board?! (He has to raise or fold.)

I figure him for either AJ or 2 pair. But I feel compelled to call. (a columbo leak?)

1:56 AM  
Blogger Irongirl01 said...

i think its a fold the way the hand has played to this point. im not going to say he should have done this on the turn... the original raiser appears to be value betting the river with the nuts or its a post oak bluff min raise. laying the correct odds to induce the call.

But if the JT player is playing with a chip up early or go home mentality he may have felt committed at the end there and shoved in over the min raise.

2:24 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

With all the money invested in the pot and how early it is in the tourney I reshove my last T1500 in there.

My guess is it's a chop and dude has KJ, QJ, or JJ and if he has AJ or a full house oh fucking well. Double up, bust or chop are much better scenarios to me than to fold and only have 1500 left.

As for some other scenarios listed above which I did not choose I either check-fold/check call the river but I do not bet-fold, and a check raise all-in on the turn is IMO a premature ejacualtion.

5:13 AM  
Blogger sootedshit said...

I think a fold is in order, but I would be wanting to throw my mac through the window. However, it would probably be an anti-synderbot thing to do.

I'm also curious if BadBlood or somebody else would have posted a different opinion (to be the first post) and then see how many people follow in agreement.

6:16 AM  

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