NFL Thoughts -- Past the 3/4 Point

Well as another NFL regular season winds down to a close, we're beginning to be pretty sure about most of the postseason teams for 2011, as well as the biggest stories of the year. As usual, the NFL has delivered with yet another stellar season, despite the attempts of the referees and commissioner Roger Gooddell to infuriate everybody by their silly-ly arbitrary and often unfair and deliberate application (or non-application) of the rules. Pass interference and late hits on the quarterback in particular have become the bane of every NFL fan's existence, as the league's referees have wielded their ability to call these infractions or to overlook them to have a major influence on a great many games this year. But despite all of that, as I mentioned it's been another fabulous year overall for the best sport in America today. Remember when you were a kid and you used to sit around waiting for the next Michael Jordan game on NBC, and how you made your appointments around the NBA schedule? Well, today that sport is the NFL, while the NBA has been relegated to a shell of its former self under the "leadership" of David Stern, and this season will only serve to increase the mystique and the popularity of the best sport on the planet today. Today I will give some random thoughts I have assembled over the past several weeks of NFL play.

For starters, Tim Tebow has quickly become the story of the 2011 NFL regular season. Bar none. Leave it to Tebow to be the only thing that could possibly outweigh the drama of the Green Bay Packers going undefeated this year, but it's happened. Did you even know the Packers are currently sitting at 13-0? Probably, but nobody really cares, and the biggest reason why is that Tim Tebow is now 7-1 as a starter for the Denver Broncos. The guy cannot throw the ball -- once again, Timmy T. has all of three completions heading into the final minutes of their game against the quickly-fading Chicago Bears this past Sunday -- but he came through when it counted late in the 4th quarter and in overtime, and thanks to yet another stunning collapse by an opponent and a couple of unbelievably boneheaded plays and a crucial late-game turnover, Tebow had another chance to lead his team to victory. And lead his team to victory he did. A 59-yard field goal as time expired and another 51-yarder in overtime from awesome Denver kicker Matt Prater didn't hurt either, as Tebow nabbed his 7th win in 8 starts as the Broncos' quarterback. As I said, with his Broncos now alone in first place in the AFC West following a 1-4 start before Tebow took over the helm at qb, Tim Tebow has already solidifed himself as the one mega story from the 2011 NFL regular season, and there's virtually nothing that could happen in these last few weeks that could change that at this point. Including the Packers finishing the season 16-0. That still sounds completely amazing to me, but it's also completely true.

While on the topic of Tim Tebow and the Broncos, what is going on with Broncos management between head coach John Fox and Executive VP of Football Operations John Elway deserves its own paragraph here if not its own post -- and maybe its own blog entirely. Basically, by the Broncos' offense focusing on the running game like no other team in NFL history and generally taking the ball out of Tebow's hands when it comes to throwing -- combined with Tebow's very noticeable lack of throwing accuracy when he is forced to put it in the air -- Elway and Fox continue to waver on whether or not Tebow is their quarterback of the future, even here after a 7-1 record as a starter and running the team from alone in last place to alone in first place over the span of less than two months. Said Elway on his weekly radio spot on KDSP-FM in Denver on Monday, when asked if he has ever seen a player like Tim Tebow:

"No, not to this point," Elway said. "If you look at where we've been just this season and look at the impact that he has had this season, not only athletically with him running around and throwing the football, but I think that his presence has been just huge and his confidence and his competitiveness that he has, especially if you look about when we’re coming off 4-12 last year."

And the above quote misses the most poignant part of what Elway actually said on the radio. You can listen to Elway's entire spot right here, which I encourage so you can hear Elway's own thoughts for yourself. Elway didn't actually say "not only athletically" -- on the air he actually said "not so much athletically", and then quickly corrected himself to say "not only athletically". Very telling of Elways' true thoughts me thinks.

What's more, when asked about Tebow's incredible ability to lead the Broncos to victory in the middle of the above-linked audio clip, Elway responded:

"I think when you look at it I guess I just believe everyone believes that something good is going to happen. Tim’s been the guy that has led that thinking and he’s just such a strong believer. He’s got everyone else believing that if you stay strong, stay positive, that something good is going to happen. It’s the power of the mind and the power of positive thinking. I think when those guys are thinking that way and it’s been led by Timmy with that positive attitude that all boats have been rising with that." (emphasis mine)

To me this is all just a bunch of backhanded compliments of Tebow, and more of the same as we've heard out of John Elway basically ever since this incredible 7-1 run with Tebow began. No, it's not the power of great quarterbacking, no it's not the power of great skill. It's the power of the mind and of positive thinking. It's almost like Elway is saying it's all smoke and mirrors with Tebow this year.

And when Broncos head coach John Fox was asked after the game on Sunday if Tim Tebow will be his quarterback next season, he similarly deflected the questions just as Elway has all season long, saying that he prefers not to think ahead and rather just to enjoy the present, the now.

Can anyone ever remember another situation where a guy came in at quarterback for a horrible, last-place team, won 7 out of 8 games and ran them into first place, clearly putting the team on his back and leading them all along the way, and did not have the support of his head coach or the team's management leader regarding the following season? I sure can't.

Oh, and by the way, John Fox inched ever closer to Coach of the Year honors this weekend, when Jim Harbaugh's 49ers posted an embarrassing loss to the Arizona Cardinals, and the Bungles' Marvin Lewis saw his team lose on a last-second touchdown to the NFC South champion Houston Texans, while Tim Tebow led another improbable, incredible comeback over the formerly playoff-bound Bears. What Fox has done to his team -- to the entire NFL, really -- is absolutely off the hook, and in my view at this point far trumps even Harbaugh's incredible season in San Francisco. Even with the 49ers allowing a league-low 182 points over 13 games so far this year, for John Fox to come in and after quickly ascertaining his new quarterback's strengths and weaknesses, to completely transform his team's offense into something that simply isn't supposed to work in today's NFL, it is legendary as far as I'm concerned. Through Tebow's eight starts as the Broncos' quarterback this year, the team has now thrown for a total of 947 yards (118 passing yards per game, the lowest in more than a decade for any NFL team), while running for 1557. No team in NFL history has ever rushed for over 50% more yards than they have passed for over a season, and even though Fox's team won't work their way into the recordbooks since this particular streak did not start until five games into the season, it is worth more than a little mention how amazing and truly revolutionary what Fox has done with his team this year, to play to his team's strengths and weaknesses, even when it flies squarely in the face of everything we all thought we knew about today's NFL. John Fox is still probably not quite the frontrunner for coach of the year, but if his Broncos can find a way to pick off the Cheatriots this weekend, I would guess that Fox will be right up there at the top of the list and that the award might be his to lose. Yes the 49ers have two fewer losses so far than the Broncos this season, but with Tim Tebow, Fox's team has two fewer losses than the 49ers, and he's doing it with -- amazingly -- even lesser personnel, and doing it in a way that is completely unheard-of and would have been entirely unimaginable by anybody involved in the league even more than a quarter of the way through this NFL season.

Switching gears a little bit from the only truly incredible story of the 2011 NFL season in Tim Tebow, I mentioned up there that the Cardinals somehow beat the 49ers this past weekend. This, after starting Arizona qb Kevin Kolb -- picked up in a hig-profile trade from the Eagles this past offseason -- left the game early in the first quarter with a head injury, to be replaced by 2nd year Fordam graduate John Skelton. Skelton has now started or played most the game in five games for the Cardinals this season, and the team has gone 4-1 in those games, while Kolb's record as the Cards' starting quarterback this year is an ugly 2-5. Even though Skelton's numbers in those five games don't look so great on paper (78 for 145 for a 53.8% completion percentage, 1032 yards, 7 tds, 9 INTs and a 66.8 rating), we've already seen a la Tim Tebow above that statistics on a paper can only tell so much of the story. In the eight games started by Kolb this season, his numbers aren't all that much better anyways (146 for 253 for a 57.7% completion percentage, 1955 yards, 9 tds and 8 INTs for an 81.1 QB rating), especially considering how many more snaps Kolb has gotten with the starters basically all season long, and in the end what matters more than wins and losses. Under Kevin Kolb, the Cardinals are a laughingstock at 2-5. Under Skelton, they're a playoff team at 4-1, including a win over the playoff-bound 49ers this weekend when Skelton posted a 106.5 QB rating, and a victory over the then-playoff-hopeful Eagles in Week 10 in which Skelton posted a respectable 82.8 QB rating as well. Face it guys -- John Skelton is probably a better NFL quarterback than Kevin Kolb. You heard it here first.

I would also be remiss if I did not mention what spineless, pussified weasels the ownership in both Kansas City and Miami are. With both teams playing much better after rough starts this year -- and with the Chiefs in particular beset by key injuries all through the early part of the season -- both teams fired their head coaches after losses this past Sunday. After starting 0-7, Tony Sparano's Dolphins were 4-1 in their last five games before losing at home to the highly talented Eagles 26-10 this past weekend. After trying to fire Sparano at the end of last season but then opting not to, and then after not firing him at 0-7 this year, the team was obviously pissed off to see him winning as much as he was in the second of the year this year, and had clearly resolved to dump him as soon as the team lost another game. What a bunch of pussies. Ask anyone in the league or anybody who watches all the football games every weekend -- this Dolphins squad had been playing every single game of the past several as if it was their last, their superbowl, and they had been getting results. With virtually no talent on either side of the ball to work with. And what does Tony Sparano get for taking this bunch of no-name, no-talent losers and going 4-1 with them after turning his 0-7 start around, one of the hardest things to do in sports? He gets fired after one bad loss to the Eagles, everybody's pick for the superbowl coming in to this season.

And it's a similar but not quite as bad of a story for the Chiefs and head coach Todd Haley, who was also unceremoniously fired on Monday after his team lost 37-10 on the road to the playoff-bound Jets on Sunday afternoon. Yes, Haley's team was 5-8 this season, but ask anybody who knows the league and they'll tell you that Haley was doing a pretty good job this year, after bursting out of nowhere and outright winning the AFC West last season. And both years, like Sparano who I mentioned above in Miami, doing it with almost no real talent whatsoever to speak of. The team gives this guy a no-name backup quarterback in Matt Cassell, who himself has missed about half the season now with injury, and a never-ending string of no-name runningbacks, and Haley has found a way to build a rushing powerhouse over the past couple of seasons. Todd Haley did a pretty decent job in Kansas City, and if that franchise believes that they could or somehow should (or will) do better next year with this same personnel, then they are kidding themselves and are in for a very rude awakening in 2012.

Oh, and watch out: if Todd Haley (5-8 with zero talent and a gillion injuries) and Tony Sparano (4-9 after an 0-7 start, and also absolutely zero talent) are getting fired, then you can basically write off Steve Spagnuolo, who as head coach of the Rams after last night's loss is now 10-35 in three seasons with the Rams. How does that guy keep his job, with unquestionably more talent brought in on offense than either the Dolphins or the Chiefs, and unquestionably worse results over now nearly three full seasons? Or what about Mike Shanahan in Washington, he of the 14-31 record over the past three seasons, while his owner spends money like it's going out of style? How does that guy keep his job this year? There are going to be a whole lot of NFL head coaches on the chopping block this offseason, if the criteria applied to Haley and Sparano this weekend are to be equally applied across the league, including a whole bunch of guys with a little bit less time served at their current teams, but every bit as bad of results.

Before I go, just a quick look at my preseason playoff predictions and how those are panning out so far. In the NFC, back on September 13 I picked the Eagles, Packers, Saints and Cardinals as the division winners, and the Cowboys and Bears as the wildcards. Those predictions, in a word, suck shizznit. The Bears were in the midst of making me look smart until Jay Cutler went down, and I can't kill myself for the Eagles pick as everybody in the universe went with them heading into this year, and seeing the laughable Giants and Cowboys battle it out for divisional supremacy at 7-6 right now only seems to strengthen that argument, but I completely messed up the NFC East and I like everyone else also did not at all foresee the incredible success of the 49ers out west. I am faring much better with my AFC predictions, which included the Cheatriots, Steelers, Texans and Chargers as the division winners, and the Jets and Ravens as the wildcards, picks that were almost exactly spot-on. Again, show me the person who predicted the Denver Broncos to take the AFC West, and I'll show you someone who not only should be committed but probably already is. And although a lot can chance in the last few weeks of the season, as of right now my pick of Packers over the Cheatriots in the 2011 superbowl is still looking very much alive.

The Market at a Near-Term Crossroads

The Dow Jones Industrials Average is at a crossroads going into today:



That right there is the one-year chart for the Dow. A quick look at the chart will show that we are basically right up against the closing high for the Dow from October 28, which incidentally was 12,231 and change. Wednesday's close this week was at 12,196.

If -- and that is still an if -- but if we can close above 12,231 here in the next day or two, then I would estimate there is a 75% chance that we make a run back up to the highs for the year, which would be around the 12,700 level, probably over the next 2-3 weeks. I have made no bones about my longer-term view that the markets are going to be flat to lower for the better part of the next decade, and nothing I've seen over the past year on Wall Street has made me change that view even a little bit. But, this is just one of those times on the short-term chart where we are sitting poised right up against a very clear top of a very clear short-term trading range. But based on the DJIA'a closing highs, today could be a real inflection point for the markets. If we close above 12,231, another 400-500 points on the Dow seems fairly likely to me in December before we probably top out back around the year's highs. But if this proves to be another near-term top, and we cannot hold the 12,200 range over the next couple of sessions, then I would guess we will probably drop again and end the year somewhere in the mid 11,000's range.

I've got my eyes on a couple of stock options and a couple of leveraged ETFs for a short-term play in one direction or the other right now, but I need to wait a day or two here and see which way the market seems to be going in the near-term from a technical perspective. With options expiring in just a week and a day for December, there could definitely be an opportunity for some nice profits in either direction at relatively cheap prices, depending on the action in the market today, and maybe on Friday as well if Thursday proves not to see much movement in either direction.

NFL First-Quarter Report

So, with a quarter of the 2011 NFL regular season already behind us, I usually like to take some time to take stock of what we have with some of the teams who have surprised the most thus far in the young season. Although as I've written about previously over the years it seems to be later and later in the season these days before you can really assign a meaningful assessment of many teams' true positions in the league -- in many cases nowadays taking until the third quarter if not the beginning of the final quarter of the regular season in some cases before you really know (see last year's Packers as a perfect example of what I mean there) -- I find that after a quarter of the season is the first meaningful spot to sit down and evaluate just how good these teams are. And with that in mind, here are my random thoughts on the first quarter of the 2011 NFL season, grouped by divisions.

For starters, my first prediction that you cannot find many people to agree with is that I'm still picking the Eagles to win the NFC East. What can I say -- nobody else in that division is as good as them, period. Tony Romo, what a joke, we've seen again in the first four games this year why the Cowboys will never go deep with Romo anywhere, ever. The Giants have generally been more lucky than good so far, and by luck I am including not only Mike Vick getting tackled into one of his own players and giving them the opportunity to come back on the Eagles in the fourth quarter, but also having the referees hand the Giants a game on a silver platter last week when the Cardinals beat them fair and square until the refs made an indefensible call designed purely to keep the NY market happy with a Giants win. And the Redskins, I'm just going to have to see some more of that before I really believe in them. The Eagles on the other hand, beat the Rams handily in Week 1, had a 10-point lead at Atlanta when Vick went out at the beginning of the fourth quarter in Week 2, and they had a 1-point lead vs. the Giants in Week 3 before Vick again went out in the 4th quarter, both of those last two games ending in late defeats. And then the Eagles blew their way to a 23-3 lead vs the 49ers in probably the best game of Mike Vick's career as an NFL player in Week 4, and then gave it all up thanks to not one but two missed field goals and an unbelievably boneheaded fumble on the 49ers' 39 yard line with 2 minutes to go and down one point. So here even two full games behind the Giants and the Redskins, I'm still picking the Eagles to find a way to take down an uncharacteristically weak NFC East.

In the NFC North, the Packers are as good as advertised (with a pretty dubious defense, just like last year), and the Lions are also, officially, For Real. Matthew Stafford to Calvin Johnson is quickly becoming one of the most potent qb-wr tandems in the league, and Suh is an absolute beast. It's unclear at this point just how good any of the other teams in this division are, but the Pack and the Lions should both be on their way to post-season berths in 2011.

The Saints are once again delivering and look sure to end up in the 2011 post-season, but things are wide open otherwise in the topsy-turvy NFC South. My pick of the Falcons to miss the 2011 playoffs is still looking very doable as this team has been a very inconsistent 2-2 through the first quarter, and as it is that includes an utter gift of a win when Mike Vick went down with injury in the fourth quarter of what was at the time a sheer blowout of Atlanta at home by the Eagles. And don't look now, but yep, that's Rahim Morris and the Buccaneers, who once again are making an early push at 3-1 and could be the ones to nab the Falcons' spot in this year's post-season.

And it turns out the NFC West is not going to be worth any more discussion in 2011 than it was in 2010. Seattle is as bad as expected, and St. Louis and Arizona have both really disappointed so far. And let's not forget the 49ers, who at 3-1 might be among the two or three worst teams in the entire league. Does this sound just like what we said all last year about this embarrassment of ineptitude in the west? Just like last year, it's just sad that we're going to have to watch one of these shitbag teams in the playoffs no matter what in a few months from now.

Moving to the AFC, the East is looking strong as ever, with Tom Brady and the Cheatriots as usual heading the group, but right now it's the Bills who look far more likely to me to make an appearance in the 2011 post-season than the two-time AFC Championship NY Jets. You heard it here first -- after last week's 11 for 35 performance with a pick-6 and two fumbles returned for touchdowns out of young quarterback Mark Sanchez, I'm calling it: the Jets and their unbelievably poor offense for this point in Sanchez's career will not be in the 2011 playoffs. It'll be up to the Bills to see if they can keep up the momentum and make a run of their own to fill the Jets' void.

In the AFC North, I told you in the preseason that the Steelers were getting old, and somehow they got even older this offseason than I had realized and are in my eyes lucky to be even the 2-2 that they currently are. Although I'm not sure their problems are all cleared up yet, unlike with the Jets I still think Ben Roth is more than capable of bringing this team back from the edge of the precipice here, but either way the Ravens look like this is finally the year when they flex their muscles and take firm hold of the division. And although Cincinnati and Cleveland are each tied with Pittsburgh at 2-2 through the first quarter, I'm just not buying any of either of Andy Dalton or Colt McCoy at quarterback.

Times are a-changin in the AFC South as well, where the Colts are just as bad as I predicted they would be without Peyton Manning -- really, truly horrible -- and the Houston Texans are currently tied for first at 3-1 through the first quarter of 2011, who again definitely are For Real this year. But it is the Tennessee Titans and new quarterback Matt Hasselbeck who are making all the noise and looking very much for real as well with the rejuvenated leader on offense. With this past weekend's injury to Texans' star wideout Andre Johnson, this should increase the likelihood that the Titans and Texans battle it out for divisional supremacy for at least another quarter if not more of the 2011 regular season.

Finally, the AFC West has its own share of interest and intrigue, as Kansas City's slump to the rear is definitely for real amidst a team chock full of trouble spots on both offense and defense and a league-worst -77 in net points scored and allowed through four games of the 2011 season, and Denver is once again looking hopeless even now that they are free of Josh McDaniel at the head coaching position. But it's the race between the upstart Raiders and the Norv Turner-led Chargers that seems to be heating up, as the Chargers have the early one-game lead through four games, but the Raiders' running game and defense look to have them positioned for a run at another undefeated season vs. the AFC West on the year.

It should be a great second quarter here in 2011, starting with a few awesome games in Week 5 coming up in a few days, including Tennessee at Pittsburgh, Oakland at Houston, Philadelphia at Buffalo, and then perhaps the three best games of the weekend -- the Jets at New England, Sunday night's Green Bay at Atlanta, and Monday night's Detroit at Chicago.

2011 MLB Over Unders Revisited -- Final

After an absolutely crazy final month that saw both the Red Sox and the Braves give up nearly double-digit leads in September to miss the postseason for the first two times in major league history, and an even crazier final few days when the Braves couldn't win a single game out of three against the Phillies and the Sox could nab just one out of three against the lowly Orioles, including multiple extra-inning games on the final day of the season that had teams in four corners of the country staying up late glued to the tv in the clubhouse, the 2011 MLB regular season has come to a close once again. While it is fresh in everyone's mind, I thought I would take a look at my 2011 over-under predictions for every team in the majors, and see if I once again managed to go just slightly over .500 with a full league's slate of predictions at the start of the regular season.


ARI Under 85.5. That's a loss. New manager Kirk Gibson deserves a ton of credit for leading this team over the Giants and their amazing pitching in the NL West. I certainly did not see this season coming for Arizona.

ATL Over 82.5. I got this one right, even though the Braves' season ends up feeling like a total loss. Even with 19 losses in September, Atlanta still finished with 89 wins in a positive season for a team that was considered the NL's second best team almost from start to finish this year.

BAL Over 70.5. Another loss here. I put my faith in Buck Showalter after a very strong end to the 2010 regular season for Baltimore, but the Orioles proved to be among the worst teams in the AL and missed even this low number by one game by season's end, even taking 2 of 3 from the Sox to end the year and ruin the Sox's season.

BOS Over 94.5. This is another loss snatched away from the jaws of victory, as it took Boston losing 20 games for its worst September in history as a franchise to keep them under this number by the time game 162 was all done and a bow put on Boston's miserable 2011 regular season.

CHC Under 81.5. Easy win and never even in doubt. The Cubs are among the most mis-managed franchises in sports today.

CHW Over 82.5. My second loss due to going with a head coach who let me down this year. At 79 total wins the White Sox came close to their number, but it goes in the books as another loss in what proved to be Ozzie Guillen's last year at the helm in Chicago.

CIN Over 79.5. I still can't believe I lost this one, but the Reds lost to the Mets 3-0 on the last day of the season to finish with 79 wins, making them an Under this year by the hair on their chinny chinny chins.

CLE Under 83.5. Although the Indians fared better than I expected when I made this pick, they still finished the season just under .500, good for a win that was not necessarily looking good about two-thirds of the way through the season.

COL Over 80. This is another loss for me, as I went with the momentum one too many times with the Rockies, who failed to produce one of their patented second half runs this year and ended with just 73 wins on the season.

DET Under 80.5. One of my worst picks of 2011. I went with the White Sox in the AL Central, but Justin Verlander and the Tigers ran away with things, easily eclipsing their number for the year.

FLA Under 79.5. A precious win for me. I've picked Over more often than Under with the Marlins over time, but this year didn't seem like the year for the under-supported team from south Florida.

HOU Under 76.5. Easiest Under in the league, and the Astros dumped what little talent they had amassed before this year's trading deadline.

KAN Under 74.5. Another easy Under for one of those perennial non-spending, small-market teams that just may never reach the postseason again.

LAA Under 87.5. This is one I'm proud of as I picked this line as basically being spot-on but just went with the Under based on the rest of their division improving somewhat. Finishing with a total of 86 wins on the season, it's a squeak but a win is a win is a win.

LAD Under 84.5. I thought this would be an easy win, but Don Mattingly finished up strong and eked out an impressive 82 wins by season's end. Still, it's another win with good reasoning on my part for the year.

MIL Over 81. An easy win for a team that improved measurably since 2010 but whose line was just too low from the getgo at just .500 baseball.

MIN Over 85.5. Another of my biggest misses of the preseason predictions, as I went with the manager here but the Twins came out and shocked the world by losing 99 games in their 2011 campaign.

NYM Under 89. The Mets were basically right where I expected them to be in 2011, as they clearly improved from the loss of well-known idiots at both coach and GM from the past few seasons in Jerry Manuel and Omay Minaya. And they never had any chance of finishing significantly over .500 with that team, making this another of the easiest Unders on the slate this preseason.

NYY Under 96.5. Although I only lost this prediction by a measly half a game in the end, it is one that surprises me almost as much as any others on this list. The Yankees had a much better year than I expected, and would have had the best record in baseball if not for the historic season had by the Philadelphia Phillies.

OAK Over 81.5. This was another loss for me as the A's pitching staff failed to shine and the team's lack of talent was as apparent as ever, netting the team just 74 wins on the year.

PHI Under 89.5. What can I say, I figured 87-88 wins for the Phillies given the loss of Jayson Werth and an improved NL East across the board, and even though the division took a giant step up, the Phils still busted out with a franchise record 102 wins and were easily baseball's best team from start to finish in the 2011 regular season. It's a loss I'll take any day of the week.

PIT Under 68.5. This line was laughably low coming into the 2011 season, and I finally got burned by going back to the Under well one too many times with this team. 72 wins and a terrible second half made for another big disappointment for this year's Pirates, but not big enough to keep me out of loss column once again on this prediction.

SDP Over 68.5. I just could not believe how low this line was, and I ended up winning as the Padres amassed 71 wins on the season, even though the team was surely worse than I thought they would be.

SFG Over 79.5. I won this number easily, as the Giants rode their tremendous rotation to 86 wins in this regular season, despite missing the chance to defend their 2010 World Series title in finishing 8 games behind Arizona in the NL West.

SEA Under 79.5. Here was an easy win, as the undermanned Mariners managed just 66 wins on the year and were never really in doubt for this prediction in 2011.

STL Under 84. The Cardinals used another strong contribution from Albert Pujols and a late-season surge to post 90 wins on the season, making the playoffs on the final day of the regular season and leaving my prediction twisting in the wind about two weeks into the final month of play this year.

TAM Under 87.5. I thought with the Yankees and Red Sox improving this season, the Rays would struggle to reach 88 wins. In the end, the Rays used a 17-10 finish in September to finish with 91 wins, exactly as many as they needed to make sure they reached the postseason and stole the rival Red Sox' playoff berth along the way, but giving my prediction a loss in the process.

TEX Over 77.5. Another easy win for the American League's best offensive team by far outside of New York or Boston. The Rangers picked up 96 wins on the year, going 30 games over .500 for perhaps the easiest Over of the bunch in this year's preseason predictions.

TOR Under 78.5. The Blue Jays did better than I expected in a very tough AL East, managing to end the year at .500 and making their gain my loss this year in terms of my picks.

WAS Over 65.5. Here was another easy win as the Nationals banged out 80 wins in the best season of the franchise's young history thus far, especially given the strength in the NL East.

So there you have it. And the final count? 15 wins, 15 losses overall. Right around .500 once again with the preseason over-unders. What else is new?

NFL Thoughts -- Week 3

What a wild week in the NFL.

I'm not sure which is the most embarrassing aspect of the start of the 2011 Philadelphia Eagles regular season:

First, there's the o-line's complete inability to prevent quarterback Mike Vick from sustaining a different and serious injury every week of the season. I mean, I know this guy runs around like a maniac and I know he's kinda thin to be putting himself in some of the situations that he does, but let's face it: the Eagles' protection of the qb and the pocket has been laughable for many, many years.

Secondly, there is the team's woeful lack of preparedness for Vick's missing games, the most obvious outcome imaginable to most mere fans but yet somehow totally unforeseen by the Eagles brass, who for the second straight week have sent Mike "the Statue" Kafka out to the field to protect a lead. And then watched that lead quickly slip away as the Eagles offense -- which probably would be more productive if run by Franz Kafka than Mike Kafka -- cannot keep the opposition off the field for more than a minute or two of game time when it counts. The team went and signed Vince Young in the offseason to be Vick's backup, but where the shite is he? Get his ass on the field or get me a more viable option than Kafka for now 1/8 of our season, and counting as Mike Vick sustained a broken right (non-throwing) hand in the second half of this week's game against the Giants.

And then not to be outdone, let's not forget the Eagles' vaunted "dream team" pass defense. You remember, that incredible, historical collection of all-time great cornerbacks in Asante Samuel, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Free-Agent-of-the-Year signing Nnamdi Asomugha, right? Well, how's eight passing touchdowns allowed in the past two games sound to you? Asomugha has convinced me already in several instances how athletic he is. Now he needs to show me that he can, you know, stop the people he's covering from scoring touchdowns. Until that starts happening, and until the team can find a way to protect Mike Vick, it's looking like it could be a long season in Philadelphia.

Elsewhere, although I may not be 100% sold on some of the real upstart teams so far through three games, I think we can start to make some credible generalizations about some of the teams expected to be among the league's best and the league's worst. For example, the Cheatriots are obviously a great team, but that defense just plain sucks. Again. It's been some years since there was a strong unit playing on that side of the ball at Gillette stadium, and this year certainly will not see an end to that streak. The Cheats are going to win a lot of games in the regular season like always, but they can't stop anybody, period, right now giving up by far the most yards in the NFL, more than 10% more than even the 31st place team defense in the NFL, and some 180% more than the current defensive yardage leaders in the Dallas Cowboys.

Speaking of teams with surprisingly not-good defenses, let's not forget about my Eagles -- in particularly, surprisingly, against the pass -- and also, what about those J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets? Currently slated around the middle of the pack in yards allowed through three games (against Dallas, the Jaguars, and the Raiders, two of those games at home), the Jets have been particularly vulnerable to the run, where they currently reside in 31st out of 32 teams in rush defense thus far through three games of the season, and the team continues not to look good, even when it wins big. We're going to find out real quick whether the Jets are improved from last year and ready for another playoff run, as the team's next six games are at Baltimore, at New England, vs. Miami, vs. San Diego, at Buffalo and vs. New England, which I would venture to say the team would go 1-5 in if they play equally as good as they have thus far in three games in 2011.

And let's turn our attention briefly to the reigning superbowl champions in Green Bay, who are happy at 3-0 right now but whose defense is looking downright porous in their own right. Through three games (one against offensive juggernaut New Orleans, but the other two against the much more tame Panthers and the Bears), the Pack has ceded the 4th most yards in the NFL, including allowing 1078 yards through the air, which is 15% above the 3rd-worst pass defense and just a couple of first downs behind the hapless Cheatriots in this department. The Packers have allowed the 10th most points scored in the league thus far, resulting in nearly 25 points allowed per game, which will still win the Packers a lot of games this season but which is not close to where this team should be or wants to be.

And I also think the Falcons are worth mentioning, who mostly everybody had picked for another post-season birth this year but who so far are damn lucky to be 1-2 through three games in 2011. If Mike Vick doesn't go down with a concussion and leave the game in the thoroughly unprepared hands of Eagles' third-stringer Mike Kafka in Week 2, the Eagles' 10-point 4th quarter lead at Atlanta almost surely holds and that team is looking at 0-3 right now. And yet still the team has lost both of its road games so far, both to teams they were expected to beat in the Bears and now most recently the Buccaneers. The Falcons have currently given up the 8th most points in the NFL through three games, and the passing offense is currently sitting in 18th in the NFL, and the rushing offense at 19th, both of which were expected to be well above average on the season. The Falcons better shape things up in a hurry or they might be looking at Detroit taking away their playoff spot right quick in 2011.

And on the other side of the coin, like I said I may not be totally sold on the Bills' greatness overall just yet, but the offense in Buffalo is certainly clicking on all cylinders to start the new season. The team is currently rushing for the fourth most yards in the NFL, while passing for the 11th most for a combination of gaining the 3rd most yards in the league (431 per game) and leading to the single highest-scoring team in the league at 37.7 points per game through three efforts thus far this year. While the first defeat of the Chiefs doesn't look like much, the Week 2 win over the Raiders is already looking all the more impressive for the Bills, and the way they managed to get Tom Brady to make mistake after mistake this past weekend says it all about where this team is at at this point in the young season.

And no discussion of the year's big positive stories so far in the NFL would be complete without mentioning the Detroit Lions, who are so obviously for real that I don't think you could find anyone who is actually watching these games who would ever disagree at this point. The team has probably the best defensive line in football, and although they have not been all that in defending against the pass, the overall team defense has given up just 46 points in three games, good for fourth-best in the league thus far in the young season. And let's not forget that young, high-powered passing offense that has scored the fourth-most points per game so far this season while seeing young quarterback Matthew Stafford produce to the tune of a 110.7 overall qb rating through three games. Things are shaping up for quite a race in the NFC North in 2011.

2011 NFL Post-Season Predictions

Finally this past weekend I had time to put the finishing touches on this post, which for the record was written over the couple of weeks leading up to the start of the 2011 NFL regular season. And what a wild Week 1 it was, which will quickly become apparent when you see some of my picks for the postseason this year in the NFL.

NFC East: Eagles
NFC North: Packers
NFC South: Saints
NFC West: Cardinals

NFC Wildcard: Cowboys, Bears

NFC Almost's: Falcons, Lions, Rams

AFC East: Cheatriots
AFC North: Steelers
AFC South: Texans
AFC West: Chargers

AFC Wildcard: Jets, Ravens

AFC Almost's: Chiefs

So, that is a total of four new playoff teams I am predicting in 2011, two in the NFC (Cardinals and Cowboys, replacing the Seahawks and the Falcons), and two in the AFC (Texans and Chargers, replacing the Colts and the Chiefs). Four out of twelve ain't bad, but over the recent past that's still not as much annual turnover as the NFL has seen in its slate of post-season participants, so there are likely some more surprises to come this year. I just think the Seahawks have fallen behind both the Rams and the Cardinals given the moves of this past offseason, and for some reason I decided to hitch my prediction this offseason to Tony Romo, the greatest step-down-in-the-clutch artist in the NFL today, over Matty "Ice" Ryan. Pure. Genius. And in the AFC, I am expecting the Chiefs to impress again this year but they are going to have trouble winning their division again due to a much harder schedule and not being overlooked by their opponents this year, while the Colts are in my mind finished without Peyton Manning at the helm.

I'm not typically one for making detailed post-season predictions for later rounds here without even knowing who is playing who, who is injured, etc. But I will say that I think the Cheatriots look once again to be the class of the AFC if they stay healthy and are likely to show up in the superbowl again this year, while the picture in the NFC is a bit murkier, between the Eagles and the Packers. I'll take the Packers over the Cheatriots in the superbowl in a repeat for Green Bay. Since, just like the Red Sox over the Dirty Decade in Boston, the Cheatriots have never won a damn thing since they haven't been allowed to cheat.

2011 NFL Over-Under Predictions

Amazingly, it's already time for the NFL season to start up again, as we head into the second half of 2011 with great expectations for both the baseball and the football team among us Philadelphia sports fans. As I have done over the past few years -- never yet to a sub-.500 record, in any sport, I might add -- I am going to make my predictions using the Vegas over/under lines for the win totals for each team in the NFL. Given the small number of total games in the NFL regular season as compared to a sport like baseball, most of these lines are really difficult to pick, and sometimes a half a game makes all the difference in the world between a bettable and a not-bettable number, but as usual there are some of these that I think are pretty easy steals, for a lot of the same reasons as usual with respect to public perceptions about certain teams. So, without further adieu, in alphabetical order by team city:

2011 NFL Regular Season Win Totals:

Arizona Cardinals: Over 6.5 wins. This is one to start off with that I think is very easy. The Cardinals improved on several fronts in the offseason, they added Kevin Kolb at quarterback where they have had a huge, gaping hole ever since Kurt Warner retired, they have the best wide receiver alive today, a new runningback, and the worst divisional competition perhaps in NFL history. This should lead to at least 7 wins for the Cardinals, who I expect to challenge for the NFC West title in 2011.

Atlanta Falcons: Under 10.5 wins. This one was close enough that I really had to pore through the Falcons' 2011 schedule, but no matter how many times I go over it, I just don't come up with more than 10 wins. With games at the Bears, Colts, Texans Saints and Buccaneers on the schedule this year, plus home outings against the Eagles, Packers, Saints and Bucs, I'm thinking we're looking at more like 9-10 wins for Matt Ryan et al in the coming regular season.

Baltimore Ravens: Over 10.5 wins. The Ravens are an awesome team on both sides of the ball, and they should not be hurt too much by the departure of tight end Todd Heap to the Cardinals this offseason. Plus, their division plays the putrid NFC West, which should be enough to put the Ravens over the edge to 11 wins in their 2011 campaign.

Buffalo Bills: Under 5.5 wins. Buffalo will likely be one of the NFL's worst teams, and with uncertainty at quarterback, a worse wide receiver corps, and the Jets and Patriots to deal with within the division, I'm not quite seeing 6 wins in 2011.

Carolina Panthers: Under 4.5 wins. I'm a big Cam Newton guy in terms of his talent as I've written here before this year, but Carolina has got a ton of holes for a rookie qb to have to overcome in his first season in big leagues. 3-4 wins sounds about right to me for this team that plays in one of the toughest divisions in football in the NFC South.

Chicago Bears: Under 8.5 wins. This is one of those amazing NFL lines where a team that went to the NFC Championship in 2010, and really did not lose much in terms of its skill players, is predicted to go only .500 in 2011, making it look a lot to me like one of those "too good to be true" NFL lines that you almost have to play the opposite way of what is obvious. Although the defense was excellent in 2010, the offense was pretty horrible, and I've made no bones here about not being a Jay Cutler fan generally. With the Packers looking to repeat and the Lions on the come, I'll guess we're looking at more like a .500 season for the Bears this coming year.

Cincinnati Bengals: Under 5.5 wins. The Bungles are definitely in breakdown mode, having lost quarterback Carson Palmer to (bitter) retirement and wideouts Chad Johnson and TO to free agency for this coming season. Marvin Lewis has got to be in his final season of failure and ineptitude, but until that guy is gone, I'm not seeing this team winning 6 games in a division with Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and an improving Browns squad as well.

Cleveland Browns: Under 6.5 wins. Although I think in reality it is likely that one of either the Bungles or the Browns goes over these two low numbers, I just can't see it as I look through the Browns' 2011 regular season schedule. For a team with no quarterback whatsoever to speak of, having to finish their season vs. Baltimore, at Pittsburgh, at Arizona, at Baltimore, and vs. Pittsburgh is enough for me to put the kibosh on the team nabbing 7 or more wins in 2011.

Dallas Cowboys: Over 9 wins. The Cowboys are going to be one of the biggest hit-or-miss stories of 2011 in the NFL, with new head coach Jason Garrett finally getting his shot to see what he can do with a full NFL regular season and a full season of Tony Romo at quarterback. The 'Boys play in a tough division, and in truth this one smells like a chop to me at 9 wins, but something tells me that weakened Redskins and Giants teams might enable Dallas to squeak into double digits in a nice comeback year for America's Team (for Douchebags).

Denver Broncos: Under 5.5 wins. This is maybe the most spot-on line of the entire league's worth of predictions for 2011 in my view, as the Broncos are going to struggle mightily without a set idea of who will play quarterback for them, even in a weak AFC West. The Chargers and Chiefs look superior to this Broncos team, however, and let's not forget the Raiders who went undefeated within the AFC West last year for the first time in more than a generation. I'm thinking 4-5 wins for Josh McDaniel's old team in the 2011 NFL regular season.

Detroit Lions: Over 7.5 wins. The Lions are suddenly one of the sexy picks heading into the 2011 regular season, with young quarterback Matthew Stafford teaming again with Calvin Johnson to spark the offense on a team that is clearly on the come this year. Even though the public is so in favor of the over here, I will still take it as well, as every time I walk through the Lions' 2011 regular season schedule, I always seem to come up with 8 wins, and that's being conservative about a couple of games that I could easily see Detroit pulling out to boot.

Green Bay Packers: Over 11.5 wins. It can be hard for some people to take an over when the line is 11.5 wins, but not for me. The Packers are the clear class of the NFC North, and really of the entire NFC along with perhaps the Eagles, and they have basically the best quarterback in the league right now. If this line were 12.5 I would surely not take the over due to the team's inconsistency over the past few regular seasons and their lack of skilled runningbacks on the roster, but at 11.5 wins for this team, I think they will manage to eke out a small victory by season's end.

Houston Texans: Over 8.5 wins. With Indy's Peyton Manning seemingly fixing to miss potentially many games in the AFC South this year, that puts this bet over the edge for me into an Over. Houston has not had a ton of success before this point, but this seems as good a year as any for Matt Schaub and his potent offense including Arian Foster and Andre Johnson to combine with an improving defense to nab a better than .500 record on the season. Perhaps could a division title even be in the works?

Indianapolis Colts: Under 9.5 wins. This one is purely a Peyton Manning pick. Replacing Peyton -- probably the quickest release of any qb in the NFL over the past generation or so -- with Kerry Collins who just loves to hold the ball for as long as possible, is I think going to be a disaster for this team that has won at least ten games for what, 85 years in a row? Unless Peyton comes back early in the season, which I'm just not feeling right now given the news we are hearing on an almost daily basis, I think the Colts will have a very hard time winning 10 games in 2011.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Under 6 wins. I'm not sure how they did it last year, but this number looks temptingly low to those who followed the Jags' .500 season closely in 2010. That said, when I look at the schedule for 2011, there is just a huge stretch of games in the middle of the season where the Jags could go winless, especially having just cut their former quarterback David Garrard within a week before the regular season begins. A push would not shock me here, but if the team is not going to tie their number, then I think they're going a game or two under.

Kansas City Chiefs: Over 7.5 wins. This is another sexy pick for 2011, in that most pundits out there look to be picking the Chiefs for a down year after the franchise broke out of the doldrums in 2010 by winning the AFC West hands-down. I'm going against the grain, and with head coach Todd Haley, and picking another year of at least .500 football in KC.

Miami Dolphins: Under 7.5 wins. Here is another team with another head coach that nobody respects, even though Tony Sparano has managed to win more games than expected in each of the past two years with a clearly undermanned Dolphins squad. After screwing Sparano over this past offseason by actively shopping his job while Sparano was still hired, I'm predicting this year Sparano responds with a slightly lesser performance and a sub-.500 record in an always-tough AFC East. Not having anybody to throw the ball isn't going to help much either.

Minnesota Vikings: Under 7 wins. I am not hesitating with this pick. Donovan McNabb is going to be in a world of hurt trying to make something happen in Minnesota without anyone on offense other than the great Adrian Peterson. Even despite Peterson's clear dominance, we have already seen in recent years what can happen to this team when they do not get competent quarterback play, and D-Mac is very unlikely to be the guy in my eyes to help this team out of the hole they have dug themselves in 2011.

New England Cheatriots: Over 11.5 wins. I'm not looking at the schedule. I am simply taking the over with the Cheats to win at least 12 games this year. You figure one loss to the Jets in the regular season, but otherwise it's going to be hard any week to look at the schedule and peg New England for a loss. Even if they won't be able to record and steal their opponents' play calls.

New Orleans Saints: Over 10 wins. I think the Saints are poised to rebound somewhat after a bit of a down year following their amazing 2009 superbowl run. With the Saints having to go 9-7 or worse on the year for me to lose this bet, I simply cannot avoid the value of the Over with this pick. Add just a tick to this line, and at 10.5 I would really have to think about things, but at 10 flat this seems like another obvious prediction to me.

New York Giants: Under 9.5 wins. I don't know. Something about this year's Giants just seems like the team is going to take a step backwards. Eli Manning is decently proficient moving the ball, but the team lost Steve Smith to the Eagles which should hurt his production a little, the runningbacks are getting older, and like I said just something about the way this team has run the past couple of years has me thinking pessimistically for 2011. At 9.5, the value on this line seems clearly Under in my view.

New York Jets: Over 10 wins. I was all set to pick the Jets to go under this year, but then I looked at their schedule and I actually think they might back their way into a solid regular season for a change. The team that has made a career these past couple of regular seasons of playing down to the level of their competition gets very lucky with the schedule this year, as the play the AFC West but managed to land the Chargers and Chiefs at home, while they travel to the lowly Broncos and Raiders fairly early in the season. They also play the tough NFC East, but although the Eagles game is in Philly near the end of the season, they otherwise also lucked out with both the Cowboys and the Giants at home. The favorable schedule seems to me to be destined to lead the Jets to double-digit victories in 2011.

Oakland Raiders: Under 6.5 wins. I looked hard to find 7 wins on the Raiders' 2011 schedule after the team ran roughshod through the AFC West in 2010, but try as I might, I'm just not seeing it for this team that is still questionable in a lot of the skill positions on both sides of the ball, and who probably got a little worse overall in the offseason. The kicker for me is the final stretch of the regular season, where Oakland faces off vs. Chicago, at Miami, at Green Bay, vs. Detroit, at Kansas City, and vs. San Diego to finish things off. Something tells me the Raiders won't survive that run of opponents with quite 7 wins overall.

Philadelphia Eagles: Over 10.5 wins. This line I don't even really understand. I mean, the Eagles basically win more than 10 games almost every year -- at least before they bench everyone at the end of the season when it really doesn't matter -- and this season saw the team improve dramatically in particular on the defensive side of the ball where the Eagles' clear weakness was in 2010. Although I have my doubts about Mike Vick's ability to remain on the field through the majority of another season given the way he plays and the team's still shaky offensive line, 11 wins should be very doable for this team that appears to be the cream of the NFC along with the Packers in 2011.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Over 10.5 wins. The Steelers might be getting a little old in their receiving corps, but otherwise Pittsburgh is as strong as ever -- they have an amazing gameday quarterback, a great running game, and always one of the league's best defenses to boot. 11 wins should be a cakewalk for the Steelers in 2011.

San Diego Chargers: Over 10 wins. I can't believe I'm picking the Over with a Norv Turner team, especially when I go through the schedule and I keep coming up with 9 or 10 wins. But the Chargers' defense was so, so solid last year, and Phillip Rivers is so, so solid with the ball in his hands on offense, I'm going to go with my gut here and expect at least a push by the time the dust clears in 2011.

San Francisco 49ers: Under 7.5 wins. I'm a big John Harbaugh fan, and I expect the Niners' new head coach to take this team places over the next several seasons. But probably not this year. As I look at the team's schedule -- and their paltry roster, in particular in the skill positions on offense -- I keep counting up and not getting over 7 wins, max. The final seven games back to back of vs. Arizona, at Baltimore, vs. St. Louis, at Arizona, vs. Pittsburgh, and then at Seattle and at St. Louis to end the season, looks to me to be a bit much to overcome for this already low-talent team to finish the season at .500.

Seattle Seahawks: Under 6.5 wins. Amazingly, last year's NFC West winner is predicted to go well under .500 this season, and yet I still think it is too optimistic. The Seahawks played over the heads to even back embarrassingly into the playoffs last year, and the loss of Matt Hasselbeck should be enough to tip this team over the edge into the 6 wins or fewer club in 2011.

St. Louis Rams: Over 7.5 wins. I'm going out on a limb here and picking the Rams to contend for the NFC West title along with the Cardinals in 2011. I don't think the Rams are necessarily winning 11 games or anything, but I loved the team's progress last season, I'm a huge fan of Sam Bradford and the St. Louis wide receivers, and I love generally head coach Steve Spagnuolo's approach, both on the offensive and defensive side of the ball. I think at least a .500 effort is forthcoming this year for the recently former worst team in the NFL.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Over 8 wins. I was all set to go under again with the Bucs this year after last year's breakout performance, but the schedule simply does not support the team winning under 8 games. They play the AFC North, but they lucked out and have the Colts at home early in the season when Peyton will likely not be playing, and they also got Houston at home while they travel to play the lowly Titans. The Bucs also play the NFC North, but again they picked up the Lions and the Bears at home, while the late-season game at Green Bay was probably going to be a loss either way. And, unlike so many of the other teams on this list who end the 2011 season with a brutal stretch, check out the Buccaneers' last six games of the year: at Tennessee, vs. Carolina, at Jacksonville, vs. Dallas, at Carolina, and at Atlanta. I'm seeing another over-.500 season for Rahim Morris and his boys in Tampa Bay.

Tennessee Titans: Under 6.5 wins. No matter how I slice it, I keep coming up with no more than 6 wins as I walk through the Titans' 2011 regular season schedule. I have a lot of respect for Chris Johnson of course and the impact he can have on a football game, but this team is going to have its work cut out for it, playing the AFC North including the Ravens, Steelers and Browns all in the first five weeks (two of them on the road), and the NFC South including games at Atlanta and vs. the Saints in the second half of the season.

Washington Redskins: Under 6.5 wins. Like the Giants, I am predicting another down year for the hapless Redskins, probably the single worst franchise in the NFL over the past decade or so. Although getting rid of McNabb at qb should not hurt the team, being left with the choice of Rex Grossman over John Beck does not do much to inspire confidence in this NFL fan. With the Eagles and the Cowboys I think improving from a year ago, it's going to be tough times I think for the Skins to amass 7 wins in 2011.

So, that is 15 Overs and 17 Unders, for a slightly pessimistic take overall on the Vegas lines for 2011. Now, can anyone still bet sports online securely from a U.S. location?

Wednesday Reality

Hello? Helllllooooooooooooo? Is there anybody out there?

Where did everybody go who just one day ago was telling you that the market rallied 600 points in an hour on Tuesday afternoon because the Fed pledged long-term support for the market? Boy, that long-term pledge of support sure disappeared in a hurry, didn't it?

Where did everybody go who denied that Tuesday's Fed statement made the FOMC sound overly negative, and overly powerless?

Where did all the talking heads, analysts, and current and former fund managers go who advised you to buy on the dip all day on Monday? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?

Right back under their rocks is where they went, that's right. Only to re-appear in a month or two and tell you they've predicted this whole move downward all along. But then, that's the shtick that makes any public market analyst survive nowadays, isn't it.

The markets plunged again on Wednesday, erasing all of Tuesday's massive 4% gains in the U.S. and then moving more than a full percent lower than that, bringing the Dow's total five-session tumble to a stunning 1176.50 points, representing a decline in just one week of 9.9% of the full accumulated value over the entire lifetime of the Dow Jones Industrials Average, and I can say from the perspective of a very involved market observer, it has truly been a thing of awe to behold. Even more ominous than the fact that Wednesday saw the markets give back significantly more than all of Tuesday's gains, is the fact that the market sold off hard all throughout the final 90 minutes of trading, and finished Wednesday's abysmal session literally right at the lows of the day.

Make no mistake -- what we're witnessing right now is one of the most impressive momentum struggles between the bulls and the bears that we've had on Wall Street in our lifetimes. Of course the absolute peak of the 2008 financial crisis was even a little worse than what we've endured over the past several trading sessions, but after Wednesday's huge slide, I think it's fair to say that we've officially moved into "historic" territory with this incredible fiasco over the past week in the stock market. It's not quite to "apocalyptic" yet -- in fact, amazingly it's nowhere near "apocalyptic" yet by a longshot -- but in truth, a 10% decline in exactly one week is close to as bad as the whole market at large ever gets. With the situation in Europe seeming to deteriorate almost daily, and with the GDP numbers for the first half of this year finally making clear to Americans for the first time the farce that has been manufactured by the current administration through growing use of government-printed money over the past two years, combined with what I have been telling you was a Fed statement on Tuesday that somehow managed to make the FOMC sound simultaneously as scared and as powerless as I have ever seen them sound, this is far and away the market bears' best opportunity to garner the support they need to force huge downward spikes in the market since the financial crisis finally bottomed out in March of 2009.

It's been two and a half long years for the bears, it really has. Even by bear market standards. The move from Dow 6,600 in March 2009 to Dow 12,810 on April 29, 2011 was one of the single most ferocious bull cycles in the history of the DJIA. Think about that -- the world's leading market index surged a full 94% over the span of just over two years. It was basically impossible to make money shorting stocks, or doing anything other than sitting squarely on the long side in equities, for over 25 months in the U.S. In truth, mostly every bear out there has been pulling his or her hair out for over two years as equities have inexorably risen, seemingly without any valid justification to support such strength, a sentiment expressed by many financial bloggers and other talking heads in the industry repeatedly ever since the market started recovering from the financial crisis.

And now, finally, the confluence of negative events I mentioned above have given the bears their first chance to flex their muscles since March of 2009. And given what the past 25 months have been like on Wall Street, the muscle of the bears can be great indeed, as we saw well back in 2008 and as we're seeing again now in a big way. The bottom line is that these negative guys, and the momentum guys, and the logarithmic trading guys, they all come out of the woodwork in times like this, and they do so in incredible numbers and with incredible strength in their push. We see it every few years like this, even though most market participants seem to be surprised all over again each time the cycle repeats itself. The bulls put up a strong effort around midday on Wednesday after a large opening drop following Tuesday's short-lived rally, bumping up the Dow more than 200 points off the morning lows, but the bears circled the wagons for another sick push in the afternoon, and the final 90 minutes of trading on Wednesday was about as bad as you ever see the markets get. And once it was clear that this selling momentum had started kicking in and that traders were setting their sights on a run at the day's lows, it was like a tidal wave of sell orders flushing over Wall Street.

Given what things look like at this exact moment, the bears' insatiable thirst for blood in the market has clearly not yet been quenched.

The Bounceback

Man, there is nothing better than times like this on Wall Street. Honestly, if you can keep your wits about you and you're not too overinvested in the market, and you have some solid finance knowledge to feel empowered to have a good sense of what's really going on, these unbelievably volatile days are the rarest of treats. And if you're actively involved in the market, you learn to appreciate them, of course the huge up days like today's 5% bounceback rally, but even the massive selloffs like we've seen over the past week. If you know what you're doing, those down days are some of the most exciting times there are, because there are any number of ways to profit from steep market declines, and especially because you get to go bargain hunting for those stocks you've had your eye on for 18 months just waiting for the right entry point.

Tuesday's trading action was simply a spectacle to behold. We opened up like 200 points on the Dow after the clear overreaction of what, 1200 points lost over three trading sessions on Wall Street, but within half an hour the bears had mounted their push, weighing stocks down and pushing the major indices down into negative territory within the first half hour of trading. But just when it looked like the bottom was ready to fall out of the market again, the bulls made their recovery, bouncing the indices off of the flat line and sending stocks solidly higher once again as the bears' early morning push was successfully fended off by those who saw too much value in stocks at Dow 10,800 to sit by without jumping in.

The Dow stayed up 150-250 points or so through the midday in New York, but then as we approached the Fed's FOMC announcement out of Washington, DC at 2:15pm, investors pulled in the reins a bit, perhaps anticipating that there were likely no magic words the Fed statement could include that would quickly address the myriad problems facing the U.S. and global economy at this stage. Within minutes of the Fed's announcement, which I linked to here almost immediately, people very easily saw exactly what the Fed was saying, given that this was one of the shortest and most transparent and straightforward Fed announcements I can ever recall seeing, and it basically included (1) a statement that the economy is clearly much worse than they had expected it would be earlier this year, and (2) a promise to keep short-term interest rates -- which have been at zero since the financial crisis in 2008 -- remaining at zero for at least another two years. This was the first time any extended time period like this has ever been included with this kind of specificity in a regular FOMC announcement, but at the same time, the Fed's obvious fear about the current path of the economy, combined with their lack of any real bullets left in their fiscal policy gun, and absolutely no promise, indication or scintilla of evidence of any intention to launch a third round of quantitative easing or other Fed balance sheet action, made the FOMC statement truly one of the most depressing and pessimistic proclamations I can ever recall being made by the U.S. central bank.

The moment that the bears saw how objectively negative the FOMC statement was, they immediately seized back control of the markets, pushing the Dow from up 200 points to down 200 points within half an hour of the Fed's release to the market's lows of the day, and it seemed we were looking once again at another complete washout as the Dow tested the 10,600 level for the first time in some ten months. It was an extremely impressive push by the bears, who have finally firmly wrested control of this market over the past week or two after basically two and a half years of nonstop bull market action, and the market-savvy could tell that the sellers had decided this was their moment, their chance to really make a splash and cause a scare among the investors of the world. In ten minutes the Dow would be down 500 points again, and there was finally going to be some raw old-fashioned panic again in the markets.

Yep, the bears gave it their best shot at around 2:45pm ET today, buoyed by a shockingly negative and poorly thought-out announcement out of the Fed, but then a strange thing happened. 10,600 proved to be the breaking point for the bulls, and when that level was reached about 15 minutes before 3pm on Tuesday, everything suddenly turned on a dime, and the most massive onslaught of buying I've seen in at least two and a half years took hold, sending the Dow from down 200 to up 430 points, closing at the highs of the day as the market shot up more than 600 points in just the final hour of trading. 600 points up in one hour, just when the bears thought they were about to wring out another day of heavy losses from U.S. investors. Even over the past week's crazy action minute-to-minute, I have not seen volatility like this -- with two huge pushes by the bears of multiple hundreds of Dow points each, combined with a truly epic FOMC fail by historical standards who all but proclaimed that growth will stink in the U.S. for at least another two years -- again since those crazy days in late 2008 when we would be down 700 three days in a week, and then up 550 the next.

The uneducated, the naive, and those who want to appear like they know what they're talking about but who actually have not a frigging clue posted headlines all afternoon and evening on Tuesday like "Investors Cheer Fed No-Exit Announcement" and "Stocks Soar as Fed Announcement Interpreted as Long-Term Support", etc. What jokers. As I've said, the Fed announcement was, factually speaking, about as negative as it could realistically have been. I can't even believe how poorly conceived that statement out of the FOMC was, almost as if it was designed to send the markets into another tailspin, which is exactly what it did within seconds of hitting the wires. There's just no debating that. If you read people in other finance outlets tonight telling you that investors interpreted the Fed decision as an implicit promise to launch another round of quantitative easing, then please don't read that publication anymore because that writer is a fraud and is as naive as the person who bought in big right before last Wednesday's action and then sold everything at this past Monday's close. The Fed has been perfectly clear in several recent FOMC statements when it is planning or expecting to launch more balance sheet measures to support the U.S. economy. They are crystal clear about it on purpose, because it is important to them that investors get the message that the Fed is here to support them. This FOMC statement was simply completely devoid of any such references or inferences, a fact which stuck out like a sore thumb.

Similarly, if you read one of these so-called market intelligence websites or newsletters today that has the audacity to actually put into print that investors bought up U.S. stocks on Tuesday because of the Fed's long-term promise regarding interest rates, once again that person's opinion is not worth the paper it is written on. Seriously, think how ridiculous that is! The Fed has already held interest rates at zero for over two years straight, and anybody who thought at this point, with the Fed's effort having failed to stimulate any real growth for nine straight quarters now, that there was any chance of any time soon seeing the Fed kicking up interest rates is as clueless as the day is long. No, it was already stone cold obvious that the Fed would be holding rates at zero for the foreseeable future, and a promise to do so "until 2013" is barely more than a statement of intent, as clearly the FOMC could act long before then if there is some sustained turnaround in the country's economy and/or inflation rates long before then. The 2013 rate commitment is a red herring plain and simple, and if anything as I mentioned above will surely come to be interpreted by the market as a clear indication of the Fed's expectation that growth will remain very sluggish in the U.S. until at least that time, an unprecedented type of statement out of almost any government office and in particular the FOMC. Anybody who thinks the market went up on Tuesday because of that FOMC statement simply does not have sufficient experience in the market to really know what's going on.

The market rallied ferociously in the final hour of trading Tuesday, but it did so directly in spite of the FOMC, not as a result of it. The Fed did about as much as it realistically could have to scare the crap out of U.S. investors for some inexplicable reason, and when the market had a few minutes to digest the FOMC statement, that is exactly what happened. The market didn't turn positive at all because of the Fed, make no mistake about it. The market turned at 2:45pm today because it had fallen much too far much too fast, and when the bears mounted their great big push, they went too far and made stocks too cheap for the money on the sidelines to stay away. The result was a massive wave of pent-up buying, one that completely overwhelmed the bears as it should have after the carnage we have seen over the past four trading sessions. But make no mistake, that rally was purely a momentum play and nothing more.

And that means that, without actually feeling any support from the Fed after the FOMC statement this week, the huge Tuesday rally cannot be trusted to hold at this point in time.

2011 MLB Over Unders

So another Major League Baseball season is upon us, and once again I am late in posting my over-under predictions based on the Vegas line for all 30 MLB teams. Before the season gets too far away from me -- we are what, four or five games in to a 162-game season at this point -- I want to get my predictions up here to memorialize them in stone heading into what I am expecting to be a very interesting season in one of the only professional big-money sports we have left in this country that is not currently or very soon to undergo a work stoppage of one form or another.

Unlike in past years, I just don't have the time right now with work obligations and all to do a detailed write-up of my expectations for every team, so instead I am going to simply cut and paste the list of teams and the Vegas over-under for each, along with a "U" for me picking Under, or an "O" for me picking over this numnber of total wins on the season. If I have a one-sentence thought on the team I will add it below, but otherwise it's just the teams and my over-under wins pick this time around. And, given that I actually made these picks a week ago before the season started, some of my picks and explanations will already look and sound pretty stupid, as a few teams are already way off the pace I am predicting below, but what can I do, the truth is the truth:

ARI 85.5 U I have no idea why this team is expected to win 86 games but I am not seeing it.
ATL 82.5 O I have no idea why this team is only expected to barely break .500, but I think they will with an improved roster from 2010.
BAL 70.5 O Buck Showalter comes in and makes this team the winningest team in the vaunted AL East for the final third of the season last year, and now we're looking at 71 wins? I'm taking Buck and the Over here.
BOS 94.5 O This team improved dramatically in the offseason and the number is a very makeable 95 wins.
CHC 81.5 U Anything near .500 and I'll take under with a depleted Cubs squad.
CHW 82.5 O I think this line is really quite close but I will go with the crazy coach and predict just a win or two over the line here.
CIN 79.5 O Again, this team comes out and wins the NL Central out of nowhere last year, and this year they're picked to go under .500 again in a weak division? Easy over two years in a row for the Reds.
CLE 83.5 U And somehow the Indians of all teams are picked to finish over .500? These numbers must be wrong.
COL 80 O I'm not huge on the Rockies after they disappointed last season, but I'm game to predict them to finish the year .500 or better.
DET 80.5 U Something tells me that the Tigers are looking at a bit of a down year in 2011.
FLA 79.5 U Usually a perennial "over" target, I am thinking the Marlins will finish just a hair under 80 wins this year in an NL East where mostly every team improved in the offseason.
HOU 76.5 U The Astros are always an Under these days, especially when they stink and their line is somehow in the mid- to upper 70s.
KAN 74.5 U The Royals are another team that is basically always an Under pick, no matter how low the number gets. When they trade away their best pitcher in the offseason in exchange for prospects, this is only made all the more true.
LAA 87.5 U I'm almost flipping a coin here and just going Under with the Angels, even though I respect the hell out of their coach. 88 wins just seems a tad too high for this team playing in a tougher AL West than in recent seasons.
LAD 84.5 U Somehow the Dodgers are still showing as needing 85 wins this season to cover, even though the team seems to me to be in breakdown mode, and will probably be looking to be sellers and not buyers around the trade deadline as it is.
MIL 81 O I think this line is pretty decent at .500 for the season, but I will put stock in the team's offseason improevments -- mostly notably adding Royals starter Zack Greinke to the rotation -- and look for a slight Over here.
MIN 85.5 O Always take the Over with the Twins. Rod Gardenhire remains probably the best manager in baseball today, and he is playing in a division without another great team like his is.
NYM 89 U This one I am convinced cannot be right, as this Mets squad was a lot closer to winning 60 games than 90 games last year. Although the replacement of an idiot GM and loser coach will likely signal the end of the Mets as the doormat of the NL East, no way I am picking them to win 90 games this year even if they do bounce back a bit from last year's embarrassment.
NYY 96.5 U I was surprised to see the Yanks ahead of the Red Sox in terms of predicted wins, but then I remembered how New Yorkers tend to bet these things into the stratosphere and I think I have my answer. I like the Yankees to make a solid run this year, but I can't in good conscience pick them to win 97 games.
OAK O 81.5 I expect the As to take a very good pitching staff and finish over .500 on the 2011 season.
PHI 89.5 U Here is a line I referred to in a post a week or two ago, but I think the Phils' injury problems combined with an increasing vulnerability on offense to keep this team from winning 90 games this year, even with the addition of Cliff Lee and the best starting pitching rotation ever assembled.
PIT 68.5 U This line is so low that it is laughable, after 19 straight losing seasons out of the yellow and black. I'm still going Under for this season as well.
SDP 68.5 O Did we not learn anything from last season? Now I know the Padres fell eventually and ended up missing the playoffs entirely, but 69 wins? Come on.
SFG 79.5 O Here is another ridiculous line that I am convinced must be an error. The Giants look to me to be the team to beat in the National League this year, and I expect them to ride that pitching staff to an easily over-.500 record by the time the smoke clears on this season.
SEA 79.5 U I still cannot explain what made this team play so bad with Felix Hernandex and Cliff Lee in their rotation to start the 2010 season, but with Lee gone now I am more comfortable taking the Under and expecting a similar outcome here in 2011.
STL 84 U I can't quite put my finger on it, but something tells me the Cardinals are looking at a down year in 2011. 84 is a bit low and ultimately I think is probably very close to where this team finishes the season, but since I think the team will have an off year I will take my chances with another Under pick.
TAM 87.5 U Everyone loves the Rays this season, but with the Yankees looking strong, the Red Sox clearly improved, and the Orioles coming on, I will take a slight Under with this number and expect to squeak one out in the final week of the season this autumn.
TEX 77.5 O This may be the worst line in the entire list, as I think the Rangers are looking to post a very strong year on the back of one of the most potent offenses in the league. Even without Cliff Lee -- who only pitched mediocrely for the team in 2011 -- 78 wins should be a shoe-in for the best team in that division.
TOR 78.5 U Every year the Blue Jays are predicted to wallow in the uber-tough AL East, and many years they end up surprising on the upside. Not this year though with all the improvement in that division.
WAS 65.5 O I'll take the Over here against an impossibly low number, as the Nats added Jayson Werth who will win a few games both behind the plate and in the field, as well as Brice Harper from Vegas who should join with Steven Strasbourg to bring some much-needed excitement to our nation's capital.

The Madness is Upon Us

That's right, it's that time of year again. This has got to be the sixth or even the seventh year that I've been writing here during March Madness. Although these first few days of college basketball's championship tournament will always be magical, this year they will get I think a little bit less magical, for two key reasons, both ultimately tied to money and broadcasting of the games.

When the NCAA went out to bid for their new broadcast contract recently, they managed to sign an all-time record deal, pretty amazing when you consider what the economy has been like for the past few years. How did the ever manage to sign for a new record, even as television ad sales are slumping, thus directly weakening the value of the same NCAA package as previous years when ad sales were more brisk? Simple -- they changed the historical NCAA telecast package. For the first time ever, tv brought four separate television networks together to make the historic rights bid for March Madness, and as a result, you'll get to see games this year for the first time not only on CBS but also on TBS, TNT and even TruTV, which I understand used to be the old CourtTV.

You might not think this will impact you much as you watch the games, but I bet you will notice the difference if you are someone like me who in the past has downloaded the special web viewer for all the games, and who stays up all night these next few nights watching those buzzer beater after buzzer beater moments that only the NCAA tournament can provide. First off, the idea of the four networks wasn't just to spread the huge money around that it costs to purchase the March Madness package from the NCAA -- it's also to spread around where the games are shown. You will have games on all four stations during the prime time hours tonight, simultaneously, which can be a positive or a negative depending on your perspective. Yes, you will technically have individual "freedom" to choose which game you want to watch, and to some people that is a big plus, in particular I guess those people with multiple large-screen tvs in their homes. But for me, I'm going to miss all of the switching windows, getting to just plant myself in front of tube, turn on CBS, and vegetate while CBS's producer determines which games to show me, and ends up supplying me with a buzzer beater here, then a last-second just-miss heave for the win here, followed by a ferocious last-minute comeback by the underdog down here, all one after the other after the other. Don't expect to see that this year anymore, because now it will be on you (not on CBS) to switch from one game to the next. And, you're going to have to know real quickly which station on your cable system is TruTV, and where TNT and TBS are. I have had my new cable system for about six months, and to tell the truth I couldn't tell you where TruTV is (or if I even have it at all), and frankly I don't even know for sure about TNT. TBS I watch The Office on from time to time on Tuesdays, so I know that one, but TNT and certainly TruTV are going to be a real problem for me, and even when I find them, it will take days for me to really memorize where each station is.

Also in the chase for the almighty dollar, the NCAA opted this year with their new tv package to switch around the timing of some of their games, in addition to the distribution channels on the television. For the first time, on each of Thursday and Friday, two games were moved from the mid-afternoon slots to the nighttime slots, which was specifically negotiated as part of the plan to increase the overall revenues from the games that are played, in addition to being able to sell ads throughout each individual game which will now be shown in full on the four different tv networks. Two games may not sound like much, but with their removal on Thursday afternoon and on Friday, combined with the more staggered start times the NCAA came up with to help to spread out the afternoon games a little better, those of you who have made a habit in the past of spending the afternoon watching the first two rounds of the NCAAs will I imagine notice the void this year. There should basically always be a game going on starting from shortly after noon through dinnertime, but an some points it will be just the one game, and at others two or three, but not the four or five we have gotten used to in the past. And this trend of moving the games to the prime time p.m. slots will only get more pronounced as the tournament wears on, as even the third and fourth rounds next week and weekend -- when there are far fewer total games to be played -- have been moved to mostly or all prime time games. Gone will be that second weekend of staying home and watching college basketball from 2pm onward on the East Coast as part of March Madness. Those games will still be played, but you'll be looking at almost exclusively night games in the East as we grind our way down towards the Final Four over the next 11 days.

So the games that make up March Madness will be fewer and farther between this time around, and you'll do a lot more flipping with your own remote while you watch because there is set to be a whole lot less of CBS flipping from game to game to make sure we are catching all the exciting endings to these early-round games. But it is still March Madness, and that will always be awesome, the very thing college football wishes it had but doesn't know how to get to given the way the Bowl Games have infiltrated themselves within the conference leadership's psyche by this point in time. Even with the changes this year, these next four days are about as exciting a time in sports as you'll ever find, and as far as I'm concerned noontime can't get here soon enough.

I thought I would give a few general thoughts on the games, the seedings and the tournament in general here before things get rolling in a few hours:

The best teams? Unlike last year, when I singled Duke out as having no shot at winning it all a couple of weeks before they did just that, this year I think Duke is better than most people think. They lost some big experience from the team since last year's National Championship run, but they got a lot bigger and badder on the inside with some of their new pickups, and this Duke team I think floated under the radar quite a bit this season because the ACC was so woefully weak in 2011. But I look for Duke to make a big run and this may be the first time in ages that I pick them confidently to reach the Final Four. Ohio State and Kansas also seem to me to be singularly more talented than all the other teams in their brackets, and should be odds-on favorites to win their regions and advance to the Final Four. And in the Southeast, I predict a wide-open look as many of the top-seeded teams have not been historically strong performers in the Big Dance. In all, it's a year where I think three or four teams have clearly distanced themselves from the pack, but at the same time, one where any one of probably 10 to 12 teams could pull it together and win it all.

Looking at the regions themselves, the toughest region in my view is the East, where top-seeded Ohio State has to deal with a very talented, albeit erratic, UNC squad, a tired but very accomplished and experienced Syracuse team at the 3 seed, and an underrated Kentucy team for the #4. Any one of those teams could come out of that bracket, and, frankly, any one other than OSU could probably lose in the first two rounds without anyone being all that surprised, but there is a lot of talent at the top in the East, moreso than in any other bracket the way I see it. The West is also a strong bracket, as Duke got a tough road to the championship from the Committee for a change, as even though I think SDSU is terribly weak as a #2 seed coming out of that conference, but with the flaming-hot UConn Huskies as the 3 seed and Texas -- who was ranked #1 for the first part of the season this year -- as the #4. The Southeast and the Southwest are really where I think there is a concentration of beatable teams -- in the Southeast, #1 seed Pittsburgh typically does not fare well come Tournament time, Florida is probably overrated as a 2 seed in what was kind of a down year for Billy Donovan's squad, BYU I think is definitely overrated as a 3 given their #2 player being removed for boinking his girlfriend, and the 4-seeded Wisconsin Badgers in this part of the bracket are just getting over scoring all of 36 points in being ousted from the Big Ten conference tournament by lowly Penn State. And the Southwest may be the weakest of all, as powerhouse Kansas got the easiest pass this year IMO with Notre Dame as the 2-seed -- a good team but nothing Kansas shouldn't be able to handle -- Purdue as their typically overrated selves at #3, and Louisville at #4, behind coach Rick Pitino who hasn't run deep into the NCAAs in several years now.

In terms of early-round upsets, I look again to those two weaker regions to see most of the likely action among the worse-seeded opponents, since so many of the top teams in those brackets are actually weaker than their seed would suggest. In the Southwest, I think Vanderbilt at #5 is probably not long for the tournament, and could fall to #12 Richmond in first-round action; and I think my beloved Georgetown team could be in trouble as a 6-seed against VCU who played their way in as an 11 seed after beating USC on Wednesday night. In the Southwest I think things could get even crazier, as I believe #1 Pitt will have their hands full against the winner of ODU - Butler in the first round, and I think both Wisconsin (#4) and Kansas State (#5) could face tough times in their respective first-round matchups against points-differential leader Belmont and tournament-seasoned Utah State, respectively. I also think St. Johns is likely to take down BYU in the 6-3 game if we get that matchup over the weekend as most people seem to expect, after St. Johns beat so many big teams down the stretch this year in the regular season. On the other side of the bracket, I like Marquette to beat Xavier in a close one, although that game is in Ohio so it's hard to get too excited about Marquette's chances there, and I like Missouri to beat Cincinnati in the 6-11 matchup in the West as well, as far as games where I think we could see a significantly lower seeded team making some noise in the early rounds.

I hope everybody enjoys the games today, and may your team go far as long as they aren't playing the Hoyas.

NFL -- Conference Championship Picks

The NFL never ceases to amaze. It is far and away the hardest sport to predict anything in, as the league gets it the most "right" in my opinion of all the major sports in the world today as far as their focus on parity. The good teams get the worst draft picks every year, the worst teams get the easiest schedule the next year every year, the divisions play each other in packs to promote similar schedules among competing teams, and there are even little things like the minimum age requirement that help prevent the weakest teams from making huge mistakes in the draft by bringing in some 16-year-old whiz kid who never pans out. All this makes for hands down the most entertaining sport to watch in the world today -- despite being on the decline as the popularity of fantasy football is definitely off from its peak, and with the new Commissioner routinely taking actions and making changes that seem deliberately intended to whittle away his sport's prominence today -- but from a bettor's perspective, the league can be a real nightmare. I heard everyone and their mother last week was taking the Under on the Pittsburgh - Baltimore game last weekend, reasoning that there was no way this game would play out to more than 37.5 points, and what happens? It's 28 points by the half, and by early in the third quarter we are well over 40 points scored by two teams that pretty much always play to great defensive struggles. Similarly, who in America wasn't positive that the Cheatriots were going to cream the Jets on Sunday night? No offense, but only a monkey or a Jets fan was predicting a Jets victory in that game, and lo and behold, the Jets don't just win the game, but they basically stick it to the Cheatriots and never really even let them get close after the Cheats kicked an early field goal to take their only lead of the day. It's just so hard to predict anything in this league, even at this point down to the end of the season with only good, solid, balanced teams left playing, and that is most definitely part of what makes the NFL so awesome, but it can wreak havoc on anybody looking to make some money betting on these games.

Which is all a round-about way of excusing myself for going 1-3 in last week's Divisional round games, a week after a ho-hum 2-2 showing in the Wildcard round. I of course bombed out on the Cheatriots like the rest of thinking America, and I also put too much stock in Atlanta -- they of the 14-2 regular season record, and the 20-1 lifetime record at home for Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan -- as the Packers completely crushed the Falcons on the road just a month after the Pack lost 7-3 on the road to the Detroit Lions in a crucial, must-win game. I did manage to pick the Bears beating down on the lowly Seahawks correctly, but my big disappointment of the weekend had to be my call on the Ravens-Steelers game. I mean, how many fucking times do I have to tell myself to never ever ever bet against the Pittsburgh Steelers? I blogged this at least twice last year, at least once the year before that, and at least once or twice this year as well: Never ever ever bet against the Pittsburgh Steelers. And yet time and time again, I go ahead and pick teams to cover against the Steelers, when it is so fucking obvious that either Roger Gooddell is fucking some hot piece of ass who is a bigtime Steeler fan, or Steelers owner Dan Rooney has pictures of Gooddell or the head of NFL officiating doing some seriously unholy stuff. As I sat and watched the Ravens run back a kick in the fourth quarter last week that would basically have iced the win for Baltimore, I knew just what was coming. There were no obvious fouls visible during the live runback, but when that late flag came out, of course I wasn't surprised, not in the least. Sure, on the replay it was a legal block, a total housing of the guy actually that landed the Steeler special teamsman on his ass but it wasn't even close to a hold under the rules of the NFL. But what does that matter, when the Steelers are involved in a close game? Holding on the return team, take back the touchdown that had just buried the Steelers and ruined their incredible comeback (and the Ravens' shocking third-quarter collapse), and fast forward five more minutes and the Steelers are going to the umpteenth AFC Championship game under the tutelage of one Big Ben Roethlisberger. You just Never ever ever bet against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

So with all that in mind, my picks for this weekend's game are really short and sweet:

1. In the early game on Sunday, it's the Packers at the Bears, with the 6-seeded Pack favored by 4 points over 2nd-seeded Chicago. So let me see, I've got the better team, playing at home, far and away the best defense this ferocious Packers' offense has faced thus far in the playoffs, and I'm getting more than a field goal to boot? It's great how much the lemmings suffer from this same affliction every week, every year in the NFL. See a team blow someone out in one week, and the line for the next week's game suddenly swells. Guys, the Falcons had the 17th-ranked team defense in the NFL on the year, and while I give the Packers nothing but credit for the beating they administered in Atlanta last Saturday night, this Bears squad isn't going to give up no 45 points to Aaron Rodgers et al. In games decided by a touchdown or more, the Packers went 8-0 in the 2010-2011 regular season. Meanwhile, in games decided by four points or less this season, the Packers finished the regular season at 2-5. With the Bears defense being what it is, and with the Packers' running game still not something I can believe in despite the emergence of rookie James Starks here in the post-season thus far, I'm expecting more of a close game than a blowout at Soldier Field on Sunday afternoon. The Pack could easily beat this Bears team -- everyone knows that Jay Cutler is just one sack or one bad pick away of self-destruction at any time here -- but again you're offering me the better team, the better defense, playing at home, and an inflated four points to boot all because their opponents blew out the NFC's best last week in Atlanta? The value here is not close. Take the Bears and take the points.

2. After that phantom holding call against the Ravens on the kick runback in the fourth quarter, I took out a knife and etched deeply into my arm the mantra, so that I never forget it again: Never ever ever bet against the Pittsburgh Steelers. And then I lit a torch and cauterized myself to effect immediate scabbing. Now all I have to do is take one look down at the underside of my arm to know what to do with the Steelers - Jets game on Sunday night: Take the Steelers and lay the 4 points against the Jets. For the record it does not feel to me like the Steelers are 4 points better than the Jets right now, even on their home field. But the referees will find a way. (Looks down at arm.) Never ever ever bet against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Best of luck if your team is still in it, or if you're playing the lottery betting either of the games this weekend.