NFL Thoughts -- Week 15

Cardinals' QB John Skelton: 5-1. Kevin Kolb: 2-5. 'Nuff said. Given the young man a chance.

Tony Sparano is gone, but the Dolphins just keep on playing every game like it's their Superbowl. Miami beat the formerly high-flying Buffalo Bills on Sunday 30-23, behind Matt Moore's best game of the season and Reggie Bush's first 200-yard rushing game in as long as I can ever remember in the pros.

Sticking with the newly-departed coaches' teams, it's hard to read too much into the Chiefs ending the Packers' bid at a perfect season. But, I have to say that as I watched Aaron Rodgers over the past few weeks and certainly in his post-game presser on Sunday afternoon, he seems to have had a lot more invested in this run at perfection than he is letting on. It will be interesting to see if there are any long-term effects for the Packers who might have just lost the #1 thing that they as a team were keying on for most of 2011.

It's hard to get excited as an Eagles fan when the team's limited playoff hopes are based on Philly winning at Dallas next Sunday in a must-win game for both teams, and then beating the Skins at home to close things out. With the way this team has played in the 2011 regular season, anyone who looks at that and sees 2-0 just hasn't been watching this team this year, in particular on defense.

Nnami Asomugha was called for yet another holding penalty late in the first half as the Jets were trying to mount a comeback against an early Eagles onslaught on Sunday. That makes at least half a dozen times this year that Asomugha has blatantly held a receiver who had beaten him and was about to make an easy touchdown score. As much as getting value for Kevin Kolb is proving to have been a steal of a trade this past offseason, the Asomugha signing is without a doubt the Eagles' brass's worst move of 2011.

The NBC Sunday night coverage continues to be the worst commentating available on any major sports network. Especially painful continues to be the in-studio guys, with Tony Dungy seeming more suited for missionary work or possibly religious oration than commenting on NFL games, the Rich Eisen-like banality of Dan Patrick, and the contrived too-cool-for-school attitude of Rodney Harrison. These guys even make Chris Collinsworth's one-sided commentary seem professional and riveting.

Lesean McCoy punched in his 15th, 16th and 17th rushing touchdowns of the season this weekend, solidifying his spot atop the list of best non-quarterback fantasy football players in the NFL in 2011. McCoy's 20 total touchdowns now puts him comfortably ahead of Patriots' breakout tight end Rob Gronkowski's 15 receiving plus one rushing td, and even with Calvin Johnson's huge performance this weekend against the Raiders, Megatron remains a distant third with 14 total touchdowns. To think that this team with McCoy, Michael Vick and DeSean Jackson on offense, plus Jason Babin and his 17 sacks on defense to go along with Asante Samuel and big-name additions Asomugha and Dominick Rodgers-Cromartie at corner, would be sitting at 6-8 and hoping for a mathematical miracle to sneak into the postseason with a .500 record in an uncharacteristically weak NFC East, this is just everything that makes the NFL so great for all of us.

Speaking of great offensive threats in the league today, I think it's fair to say that Aaron Rodgers officially has competition for the league's MVP. While I think Rodgers would have won it walking away if the team went undefeated for the season given the year he is having, now that the Packers have fallen back down to the realm of mortal NFL teams, I don't see how what Drew Brees is doing right now can be ignored any longer. While Rodgers has thrown for 4360 yards (4th in the NFL), an NFL second-best 68.1% completion percentage, and an eye-popping 40 touchdowns vs just 6 interceptions through 14 games in 2011, Brees has been up to the task, posting 4780 passing yards -- on pace next week to break Dan Marino's all-time single-season passing yards record with a full game to spare -- and a mind-numbing 71.5% completion percentage. Though not as amazing as Rodgers' here through Week 15, Brees' touchdown to INT ratio is also a very impressive 37 touchdowns to just 11 picks. Each player has some areas where they are clearly the best, and I guess I might lean ever so slightly towards Rodgers if I had to pick at this moment, but in my mind with the Packers' loss, this race just got officially up for grabs thanks to the Chiefs on Sunday afternoon.

I thought Tim Tebow played pretty well -- for Tim Tebow -- against the Cheatriots on Sunday. In the end it was a big double-digit loss for the Broncos, but Tebow ended the day a robust 11 for 22 for a 50% completion percentage (his highest of any game this year), and with 194 total passing yards -- also, amazingly, his highest for the year. I imagine that John Elway was fairly unsure of how he should be reacting to his quarterback's performance against the AFC's best-looking team at the moment, but Tebow did run the ball well, and Tebow started off very strong before his team got bit by the turnover bug and gave a great team in New England too many chances to build up a lead.

That New York Giants loss this weekend at home to the hapless Redskins has got to go down as the most gutless performance of the entire NFL season so far. I mean, the Giants are at home in New York Jersey and playing the Redskins who just gave up 34 points at home to the Cheatriots last week and 34 also at home to the NY Jets the week before, and they manage to put a straight-out bagel until the final minutes of a game that was already long since over? I betcha Bill Cowher is on a plane out to Westchester County right now to look for a new house to buy. What an utter collapse.

It's a shame that right now the Bengals and Jets would play down to the third tiebreaker if each team wins out over its last two efforts in the 2011 regular season. With identical records of 8-6 overall, and identical conference marks at 6-5, the decision would turn on better overall winning percentage over common opponents, with the two teams even having performed identically there, but with the Jets being 2-0 against the Bills while the Bengals are only 1-0. Though it certainly feels like the wrong team and the wrong quarterback in Mark Sanchez are ahead in that seemingly silly category, this one really should still be decided on the field as the Jets are fixing to face the crosstown rival Giants in a do-or-die game at home followed by traveling to the keyed-up Dolphins in Week 17 who you know would just love to ruin the Jets' season (again), while the Bungles have on top the beatable Cardinals at home, followed by an end-of-season home-game clash with the Ravens, who might not be playing for anything that week after Baltimore's crushing by the Chargers on Sunday night.

Even with all the shenanigans and mathematical possibilities in the NFC East, the AFC West might be the most interesting division race in all of football here as we enter the home stretch. With the Broncos' loss to the Pats this weekend, and the Raiders failing to capitalize on last-second drive against the Lions, while the Chargers stepped up and crushed the AFC-North leading Ravens, and even the Chiefs sneaking a win against the heretofore undefeated Packers, things just got a whole lot narrower over there with two games still to play. Denver is still one game up with 2 winnable games left to play -- at Buffalo and at home against Romeo Crennel's rejuvenated Chiefs -- while, just one game behind at 7-7, Oakland (at Kansas City, and home vs. the Chargers) can obviously take care of its two closest rivals head-to-head, and San Diego faces the toughest path (at Detroit, and at Oakland) to finish the season. Even the Chiefs bringing up the rear still have games left against the Raiders at home and then at Denver to finish the regular season off, so what happens in that division is very much up in the air, especially if the Tebow magic fails to come back next week against a finished Bills squad.

NFL -- Conference Championship Picks

The NFL never ceases to amaze. It is far and away the hardest sport to predict anything in, as the league gets it the most "right" in my opinion of all the major sports in the world today as far as their focus on parity. The good teams get the worst draft picks every year, the worst teams get the easiest schedule the next year every year, the divisions play each other in packs to promote similar schedules among competing teams, and there are even little things like the minimum age requirement that help prevent the weakest teams from making huge mistakes in the draft by bringing in some 16-year-old whiz kid who never pans out. All this makes for hands down the most entertaining sport to watch in the world today -- despite being on the decline as the popularity of fantasy football is definitely off from its peak, and with the new Commissioner routinely taking actions and making changes that seem deliberately intended to whittle away his sport's prominence today -- but from a bettor's perspective, the league can be a real nightmare. I heard everyone and their mother last week was taking the Under on the Pittsburgh - Baltimore game last weekend, reasoning that there was no way this game would play out to more than 37.5 points, and what happens? It's 28 points by the half, and by early in the third quarter we are well over 40 points scored by two teams that pretty much always play to great defensive struggles. Similarly, who in America wasn't positive that the Cheatriots were going to cream the Jets on Sunday night? No offense, but only a monkey or a Jets fan was predicting a Jets victory in that game, and lo and behold, the Jets don't just win the game, but they basically stick it to the Cheatriots and never really even let them get close after the Cheats kicked an early field goal to take their only lead of the day. It's just so hard to predict anything in this league, even at this point down to the end of the season with only good, solid, balanced teams left playing, and that is most definitely part of what makes the NFL so awesome, but it can wreak havoc on anybody looking to make some money betting on these games.

Which is all a round-about way of excusing myself for going 1-3 in last week's Divisional round games, a week after a ho-hum 2-2 showing in the Wildcard round. I of course bombed out on the Cheatriots like the rest of thinking America, and I also put too much stock in Atlanta -- they of the 14-2 regular season record, and the 20-1 lifetime record at home for Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan -- as the Packers completely crushed the Falcons on the road just a month after the Pack lost 7-3 on the road to the Detroit Lions in a crucial, must-win game. I did manage to pick the Bears beating down on the lowly Seahawks correctly, but my big disappointment of the weekend had to be my call on the Ravens-Steelers game. I mean, how many fucking times do I have to tell myself to never ever ever bet against the Pittsburgh Steelers? I blogged this at least twice last year, at least once the year before that, and at least once or twice this year as well: Never ever ever bet against the Pittsburgh Steelers. And yet time and time again, I go ahead and pick teams to cover against the Steelers, when it is so fucking obvious that either Roger Gooddell is fucking some hot piece of ass who is a bigtime Steeler fan, or Steelers owner Dan Rooney has pictures of Gooddell or the head of NFL officiating doing some seriously unholy stuff. As I sat and watched the Ravens run back a kick in the fourth quarter last week that would basically have iced the win for Baltimore, I knew just what was coming. There were no obvious fouls visible during the live runback, but when that late flag came out, of course I wasn't surprised, not in the least. Sure, on the replay it was a legal block, a total housing of the guy actually that landed the Steeler special teamsman on his ass but it wasn't even close to a hold under the rules of the NFL. But what does that matter, when the Steelers are involved in a close game? Holding on the return team, take back the touchdown that had just buried the Steelers and ruined their incredible comeback (and the Ravens' shocking third-quarter collapse), and fast forward five more minutes and the Steelers are going to the umpteenth AFC Championship game under the tutelage of one Big Ben Roethlisberger. You just Never ever ever bet against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

So with all that in mind, my picks for this weekend's game are really short and sweet:

1. In the early game on Sunday, it's the Packers at the Bears, with the 6-seeded Pack favored by 4 points over 2nd-seeded Chicago. So let me see, I've got the better team, playing at home, far and away the best defense this ferocious Packers' offense has faced thus far in the playoffs, and I'm getting more than a field goal to boot? It's great how much the lemmings suffer from this same affliction every week, every year in the NFL. See a team blow someone out in one week, and the line for the next week's game suddenly swells. Guys, the Falcons had the 17th-ranked team defense in the NFL on the year, and while I give the Packers nothing but credit for the beating they administered in Atlanta last Saturday night, this Bears squad isn't going to give up no 45 points to Aaron Rodgers et al. In games decided by a touchdown or more, the Packers went 8-0 in the 2010-2011 regular season. Meanwhile, in games decided by four points or less this season, the Packers finished the regular season at 2-5. With the Bears defense being what it is, and with the Packers' running game still not something I can believe in despite the emergence of rookie James Starks here in the post-season thus far, I'm expecting more of a close game than a blowout at Soldier Field on Sunday afternoon. The Pack could easily beat this Bears team -- everyone knows that Jay Cutler is just one sack or one bad pick away of self-destruction at any time here -- but again you're offering me the better team, the better defense, playing at home, and an inflated four points to boot all because their opponents blew out the NFC's best last week in Atlanta? The value here is not close. Take the Bears and take the points.

2. After that phantom holding call against the Ravens on the kick runback in the fourth quarter, I took out a knife and etched deeply into my arm the mantra, so that I never forget it again: Never ever ever bet against the Pittsburgh Steelers. And then I lit a torch and cauterized myself to effect immediate scabbing. Now all I have to do is take one look down at the underside of my arm to know what to do with the Steelers - Jets game on Sunday night: Take the Steelers and lay the 4 points against the Jets. For the record it does not feel to me like the Steelers are 4 points better than the Jets right now, even on their home field. But the referees will find a way. (Looks down at arm.) Never ever ever bet against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Best of luck if your team is still in it, or if you're playing the lottery betting either of the games this weekend.

Not Dead Yet

Kudos out to Roy Halladay who gutted his way through a first-inning groin injury -- that he told no one but his manager about and then insisted on going back out to the mound for six tough innings of 2-run baseball -- to nab his first win of the NLCS and an absolutely crucial victory for the Phillies on the brink of elimination in Game 5. To the rabid Phillies fans watching the game, it was very obvious just from the look on Halladay's face while he was out there and even in the dugout in between innings early in the game -- where Halladay was barely able to sit down without significant pain -- that something was wrong, and in a way it was a relief to hear about the groin injury in manager Charlie Manuel's end of game presser, indicating that this is not the new status quo for the Phillies' ace but rather just (hopefully) a temporary physical ailment. But for him to go out there and give the team six quality innings and to pitch through the pain like he did, this is the stuff that Philadelphia is made of, and the fans will not forget.

As big as Halladay was in the Phillies nabbing the win and sending the series back home to Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, the real story in Game 5 wasn't Halladay, nor Giants ace Tim Lincecum who took the tough loss after another solid pitching performance himself, but rather the Phillies' bullpen, easily thought to be the one glaring weakness on this team. After a scoreless 7th inning from Jose Contreras and J.C. Romero, Ryan Madson came in needing to hold on to a slim 1-run lead while facing the Giants' tough 4-5-6 hitters of Buster Posey, Pat Burrell and Cody Ross in the 8th inning -- the three guys responsible for mostly all of San Francisco's offense in this entire LCS series -- and Madson responded to the pressure by promptly setting down the side in order, throwing fastball after fastball by the heart of the Giants' lineup as he mowed down the most menacing players on the opposition like they were children with pitches that registered around 90-92 on the radar gun but looked more like 150 or 200 to this experienced eye. Honestly I do not recall the last time Ryan Madson (or any Phillies reliever, for that matter) came into a game late and struck out the side like this, but it provided a huge lift to the team and to their fans who I can personally tell you were not ready to pack it in for the season just yet. By the time Jayson Werth added his NL record 11th postseason home run with the Phillies in the top of the 9th inning, the team's spirits were high, and my nemesis Brad Lidge was perfect to close it out in the 9th.

So, the anatomy of each of the 12 historic comebacks from 3-1 down in 7-game series in MLB history begins exactly the same way -- with a win by the down team in Game 5 -- and that's what we're looking at here in the NLCS. And unlike the Yankees, who (1) have to win the last two games of their ALCS series on the road at Texas, and (2) who still have to face their opponent's #1 starter and known Yankee killer in Game 7, the Phillies have a somewhat easier rode ahead of them. No more road games, no more silly west coast time zone, and most of all, no more Tim Lincecum in any meaningful way in this series. Right now it's just about winning Game 6, which will feature Phillies pitcher Roy Oswalt's shot at redemption after taking the loss in giving up a 9th inning run in Game 4, going against Sanchez who the Phillies already touched up but good in Game 2 of this series, the only game where the Phils' lineup was really able to come together and do their thing. Here's hoping we get not just one but two Game 7s this weekend in what could shape up to be an incredible weekend on both the baseball and the football fronts.

team to rally from a 3-1 deficit in a best-of-seven series. The Red Sox were the last to do it, in the 2007 ALCS against Cleveland.

Barely a Pulse

The Yankees left AJ Burnett in just one pitch too long, that pitch a big three-run home run off the bat of Bengie Molina in the 7th inning that gave the Rangers back the lead over the Yankees on Tuesday night. Which, unsurprising given the way this series has played out so far, quickly turned in the later innings into yet another bitter, ugly blowout for the Texas Rangers who now hold a commanding 3 games to 1 lead in the 2010 ALCS. Knowing they have ripped the cover off the ball on offense in this series, knowing they have caused the Yankees and their vaunted starting rotation and bullpen to pitch to an ERA in the series of around 8 runs per game, and most of all knowing that they need just one more win and that they have a mister Clifford Lee pitching one more game, this one only if needed in Game 7 in Texas, the Rangers are suddenly looking awfully good to win this series. I 100% support the decision to pitch Burnett last night if I am the Yankees, but in the end this loss with Cliff Lee looming on the horizon seems as close to the death knell as you're gonna get without seeing Jete and A-Rod grabbing their bats with their heads hung low and heading into the dressing room after one more Rangers win here. The bottom line is this: the Yankees have not lost this series so much as the Rangers have won it. Texas has outplayed the Yankees in every facet of every single game so far, far outhitting the Yankees while at the same time clearly outpitching the Bombers as well, among both the starters and the bullpens. Give a ton of credit to manager Ron Washington, who I told you all just before this series started was saying all the right things as far as how to beat a team with the payroll and the individual accumulated skill of the players on the Yankees this year. He has his team not just thinking but knowing they are superior on both sides of the field than their big-money New York counterparts, and it shows. I haven't believed the Rangers were going to lose any of the games so far in this series, and with the exception of the 8th inning in Game 1 when the Yankees busted out with five unanswered runs, I've been totally right. The Rangers are the better team, they have better personnel and are far better coached, and the proof is in the pudding. One more win out of one more game in New York and then two in Texas -- including Cliff Lee in Game 7 if needed, did I mention him already? -- and the Rangers will advance to their first World Series appearance in franchise history. Exciting times to be from Texas these days. Except if you like the Cowboys!

Interesting, we could be just one day away from a similar 3-1 hole for the Phillies in the NLCS, as Joe Blanton of the Phils will face off tonight against 21-year-old Madison Bumgarner of the Giants in what is now a very big game for Philly after Matt Cain pitched a shutout against the Phillies in Game 3 on Tuesday afternoon. Joe Blanton is clearly not one of Philly's "big three" pitchers, but I like his chances against a very young kid in easily his biggest game as a major leaguer, and a guy with a WHIP of 1.30 who also is the clear #4 starter in the Giants' rotation. If the Phils can find a way to win this game on the road on Wednesday, we even things back up at 2-2 in the series and then we just need to win 2 of the last 3 games of the series, with Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels starting, and with two of those three games at home in Philadelphia. That should be doable for the Phils, if they can get their heads out of their asses when there are runners in scoring position. But if Bumgarner wins tonight over Blanton, then we're looking at another 3-1 series advantage for the underdog. And, while I think it is clear that the Phillies have more of an ability to still come back and win a series with homefield advantage and down 3 games to 1 than the Yankees would given the Phils' incredible 3-man combination in the rotation, at the end of the day it is very hard to like anyone to win three straight games against a team that features the level of historically incredible starting pitching that the Giants bring to bear.

Both series continue on Wednesday, this time with the Yankees having the afternoon game to fight to extend their season for one more day, and then the Phils needing to step up big time in the nightcap or risk putting themselves into a very, very deep hole.

Zombie Alert

I hate to stir up mass hysteria or anything, but I am pretty sure Cliff Lee is undead. I mean, the stony look on his face while he just goes out there and throws strikes by people is unlike anyone I can ever recall. He must be undead, it's the most sensible explanation for how someone could not just get the results Lee gets on the mound but more particularly do it how he does it. I don't ever recall someone with such ice in their veins in a huge spot over and over again -- I know I posted that video of the ridiculously blase basket catch in last year's World Series against the Yankees -- but Monday night's Game 3 of the ALCS in New York was a perfect example of the country's most famous zombie in action.

Do you realize the Yankees had just three baserunners in 8 innings against Cliff Lee last night? That Lee struck out 13 batters out of the 24 guys he mowed down on the night? You do realize this is the all-time all-star Yankees lineup we're talking about here, they of the Derek Jeter / A-Rod / Mark Teixeira / Robinson Cano / Jorge Posada and I could go on and on? Cliff Lee, even with all the spotlight in the world on him and the highest expectations one could have, he still performed.

And the thing that gets me most of all with him is he doesn't make you chase bad pitches. He doesn't set you up with three lowballs and then fire one in way high out of the strike zone to make you swing and miss. He doesn't even necessarily "paint the corners" like a Greg Maddux did so impeccably back in his heyday. Cliff Lee just throws effing strikes. You know he's going to do it. You can't just take the first pitch like so many other pitchers allow a good contact hitter to do. If you do, you'll just be behind in the count every time you get up there, which is not where you want to be against Lee. In two-hitting and shutting out the Yankees on Monday, Lee threw 122 pitches, 82 of them for strikes. I used to point this out all the time here on the blog last year when Lee was pitching for the Phillies, but this guy throws at least 2/3 strikes every time he goes out there. He just challenges every hitter with his perfectly-placed fastball, and he moves on to the cutters and the sliders once he gets ahead in the count, and the guy is deadly accurate. Forget pitching around certain guys, or being sure to avoid the top part of the strike zone against the cleanup hitter, forget all that stuff. Cliff Lee the Undead just goes out there with that same stoic look on his face and the same stoic approach to every hitter he faces: just throw it by them. Cliff Lee gives new meaning to the phrase "mowing 'em down", he really does.

I watched my own team's #1 pitcher throw a frigging no-hitter earlier in these playoffs, and I also watched Tim Lincecum throw a masterful 14-strikeout 3-hit complete game shutout of the Braves in Game 1 of this year's NLDS. But Cliff Lee's performance on Monday night at the Yankees is quite simply the most sensational pitching performance I have witnessed in the last few weeks.

With AJ Burnett slated to pitch tonight for the Yankees in Game 4, there is a very real chance that the Yankees are down 3 games to 1 in the ALCS with two more games still to play in Arlington to end the series. That is a horrible situation for the Yankees, not so much because they have to win three straight games, but because it means that under the best case scenario, they will have to beat Cliff Lee again to go back to the World Series. And this time it will be in Texas.

Nobody has really given this Rangers team a real chance to win the AL pennant (myself included) all season long, until perhaps today. For the first time this morning on the way into work, I found myself speculating about the possibilities. It's actually a pretty amazing story, albeit one I haven't even considered for one second until just today: Cliff Lee pitching against the Phillies in the World Series, the team that traded him after he dominated for us in 2009 and went and got Roy Halladay instead. Halladay vs Lee in Game 1 of the World Series....that one's gonna be even better than Halladay vs. Lincecum twice in the NLDS here.

Speaking of which, Game 3 of the NLCS kicks off at 4pm ET today, and as I mentioned yesterday this is a much bigger game for the Phillies than Game 1 was. Although winning today is certainly not crucial to either team, with Cole Hamels pitching today and Joe Blanton slated for tomorrow, clearly the Phils' best chance is to win with Hamels today and then take the pressure off for Game 4 on Wednesday.

More on the LCS

So this will be my last day writing here before the AL and NL League Championship Series kick off, the AL on Friday night in Arlington, Texas and the NL on Saturday night in Philadelphia. I've spent a good deal more time thinking about the likely outcome of both series, and I thought I would put down some more of my thoughts on those here.

First, in the AL I am thinking more and more that the Rangers have a real chance to do something amazing here. I hate to be that guy who picked against the Yankees in the first series, they swept, and who then picked against them again in the second series against a team I never thought was better than them, and watch them kill it a second time contrary to my predictions. But at the same time, one playoff series against perennial postseason pussies like the Twins does not change the feeling I expressed around the end of the regular season and again as the playoffs began that this year's Yankees team just seems to be not quite a strong of offense, not quite as clutch with the hitting, and definitely not as strong in the pitching either as last year's squad that had basically no doubt all season long they were going to win it all. Try as I might, I have had a lot of trouble late this week envisioning what the Yankees winning this series will actually look like. I can't quite go to the point of picking the Rangers to win the series, but you know what? I would pick them to win, if Cliff Lee was starting Game 1, and potentially 1-2 more games for his team in the series as a result. I mean, the Rangers had what, a few wins less than the Yankees this season, they ran away and hid with their division basically two months ago and as a team had nothing to play for for as long as anybody in major league baseball this year, they have homefield advantage in this series, and their big slugger Josh Hamilton is only just back from an injury that should see him continue to increase his contribution to the Rangers' push for the World Series more as the playoffs going on. This Yankees team has still got to be the favorite in this series, but damn if Cliff Lee were only available for Games 1 and 4 and maybe 7, it would be much easier to see the Rangers making it happen. Still, I bet we are looking at at least a 6-game series between two very good teams. Despite the coke habit, that Ron Washington has got some real chutzpah and he seems to say all the right things to his team. He is clearly one of the unknown great managers in the game today.

On the NL side, the buzz continues to grow about one of the best matchups of starting rotations that anybody can remember for League Championship Series. Chris Russo on Mad Dog Radio -- admittedly a huge lifelong San Francisco Giants fan -- has multiple times stated that he believes the Halladay - Lincecum matchup in Game 1 on Saturday night in Philly is the most-anticipated Game 1 LCS matchup in a couple of generations. At first I thought he was exaggerating, but then I tried to think of a time in recent memory when there was more buzz about the matchup of two starting pitchers to start an LCS series (or any playoff series, for that matter). It's just that, after Halladay's no-hitter against the league's most productive offense in his last outing, and after Lincecum mowed down 14 in absolutely wiping up the Braves in his last playoff appearance, the expectations heading into Game 1 for the pitching are truly lofty, and with good reason.

Russo loves loves loves his Giants in this series, but try as I might I just don't see how anyone who isn't a blind fan of San Francisco can look at this series objectively and determine that the Giants are going to win. The Giants' starting rotation is truly superb, and given how incredibly well the entire staff has pitched over the last 8 weeks or so, I am not even going to try to claim that the Phillies' staff is superior. But just look at the starter matchups side by side. It's Halladay vs. Lincecum in Game 1. I'm willing to call that a wash, more or less. It's Oswalt vs. Sanchez in Game 2. That's also around a wash, given how great Sanchez threw the ball in two wins in his two appearances against the Phillies this season. Kane vs. Cole Hamels in Game 3 is also very close if you look at season stats. I probably give the slight edge to Hamels given how lights-out he has pitched in the second half of the season, but with Game 3 in San Fran that is also basically a wash in my book. And then Bumgartner vs. Joe Blanton in Game 4, I probably give the edge there to the Giants, in particular in their building.

So, other than the #4 starter -- where even there I do not think the edge is huge -- these two teams are both utterly stacked at starting pitching, and I just do not see a meaningful difference between the starting pitching of the two teams. But it's the hitting of the two teams that I just simply cannot get over. Let's take a look at the two lineups here and I will show you what I mean:

Leadoff: Victornio (.276, 12 HR, 45 RBIs) vs. Torres (.260, 15 HR, 52 RBIs). These two look close, but Victorino is clearly the better hitter, and he is a much better baserunner once he gets on base from the leadoff spot as well.

#2: Polanco (.303, 5 HR, 43 RBIs) vs. Sanchez (.277, 6 HR, 41 RBIs). Again, this one is clearly in favor of the Phils, who saw Polanco hitting over .300 through most of the season and doing exactly what this stacked Phillies lineup needs from him in this spot.

#3: Chase Utley (.282, 16 HR, 61 RBIs) vs. Huff (.286, 18 HR, 57 RBIs). Yet again, another clear advantage for the Phillies. Not only has Utley proven himself to be perhaps the single most clutch hitter in the major leagues today over the past couple of seasons, but he missed a ton of games this year and would have destroyed Huff's numbers if given his normal amount of playing time.

#4: Howard (.275, 31 HR, 108 RBIs) vs. Poser (a rookie) (.274, 10 HR, 33 RBIs). Once again, this one is not close.

#5: Werth (.312, 27 HR, 82 RBIs) vs. Burrell (.313, 14 HR, 37 RBIs). What a joke.

#6: Ibanez (.270, 9 HR, 54 RBIs) vs. Uribe (.219, 4 HR, 14 RBIs). Even in positions where the Phillies are relatively weak -- and the real Phillies fans know that Ibanez has had a pretty clutch year at the plate -- the Giants' lineup is even weaker. Another advantage to the Phillies.

#7: Ruiz (.337, 6 HR, 31 RBIs) vs. Uribe (.233, 7 HR, 26 RBIs). Another spot that isn't even close, as Ruiz has quietly distinguished himself as another of the most clutch hitters in the game today and easily blows away his counterpart on the Giants in terms of offense.

#8: Valdez (.244, 4 HR, 23 RBIs) vs. Whiteside (.247, 4 HRs, 9 RBIs). Valdez isn't even an everyday player for this team, and yet his numbers in less than half a season are even better than the Giants' #8 hitter.

Our pitchers are even probably better hitters than the Giants' pitchers on average. The Giants have zero basestealers on their team, and "manufacturing runs" by speed on the basepaths is simply not a weapon in this Giants' squad's arsenal.

So yes, Lincecum is awesome. Sanchez has killed the Phillies so far this year. Kane and Bumgartner are both quality starters for sure who are pitching great at this point in the season. The Giants' bullpen is surely far superior to the Phillies' relievers. But that same pitching staff just gave up 9 runs in 4 games to the Braves, one of the worst-hitting teams in the National League over the final month to six weeks of the regular season. Now they are facing a lineup that is undebatably far superior to their own, at every single position. And I'm supposed to be afraid the Phillies won't be able to score on them?

And think about this -- meanwhile, the Phillies just gave up exactly 3 earned runs in 3 games against the Reds, a team with a far, far, laughably better lineup than the Giants, the team in fact that scored easily the most runs in the National League. And they scored 3 earned runs in 3 games against us, and now we're trotting out those same three pitchers for 6 of the potentially 7 games of this series. Roy Halladay is coming off of no-hitting the best-hitting team in the league, and now facing this historically horrible Giants lineup. Roy Oswalt got "shelled" in Game 2 against the Reds for four runs over 5 innings. But just like his first start in Philly was bad -- call it nerves, unease, whatever -- but then he bounced back with several incredible starts since then, if I were the Giants I would not want any part of Roy Oswalt and his 1.02 season WHIP in Game 2 on Sunday. In fact, I would go so far as to say that after that outing against the hard-hitting Reds, I expect Roy Oswalt to come out on Sunday and motherfucking snack on this Giants' minor league lineup. And Hamels, I'm not worried about this team smacking him around too hard at all with the way he's pitched for the last several months.

So yeah, the runs are going to be hard to come by in this series and certainly every time you can get a runner across the plate is going to have a real impact in these games. But, despite being the only team in all of MLB who could credibly claim to have the same general quality of staff in a short series as the Phillies, the disparity in the lineups between these two teams is like majors-vs-minors level stuff. And the Phils have homefield advantage. The Phils should take this series without too much trouble in my view even with the specter of Tim Lincecum hanging over our heads most likely twice in the series.

MLB -- Championship Series Update

How unfortunate is it that baseball has apparently hired the same money-grubbing monkeys to schedule their postseason who already schedule the NBA playoffs these days? I mean, here we are, all done with the divisional rounds of the playoffs, and we have to wait until Friday night to start up the ALCS, which just ended on Tuesday night, and until Saturday night for the start of the NLCS, which ended on Monday night? I mean, in the end, sure this helps my Phillies this year in that we will have more than enough time to line up our pitching staff just the way we want to for the NLCS, but is it the way the games should be played? Personally, I prefer a system that favors the teams with the incredible 2- or 3-man starting rotation less, by having fewer off days in between series and even during the series themselves, but as I said, there's no doubt that this helps mostly every team still alive by this point in the playoffs and I imagine that is 90% of the reason behind the move (the other 10% being media money, in some form or another), but it totally takes away from the excitement and the momentum of the games to us fans, and I am not specifically a fan of this move one bit.

All that said, it was an entertaining divisional series round of games, with some surprises in the AL but nothing but chalk in the NL. First, in the American League, the Rays and Rangers played a very unusual series in which -- for the first time in divisional round history -- the road team amazingly won all five games in the series, including the Rangers clinching on Tuesday night on the back of yet another stellar postseason performance out of Cliff Lee. I think the owner of the Rays made a major, major screwup by coming out right as the regular season was coming to a close and announcing his intentions to essentially slash the payroll and break up the team after this postseason run was over. His team played tight as hell in the playoffs right from the getgo, they couldn't score runs when they needed them against a very scoreable-against team (other than when Cliff Lee is out there), and in the end their best pitcher (and the Rays' only great pitcher at this point in the season) lost two starts in the series, both at home, and that's your season right there in a nutshell.

On the other side in the AL, I picked the Twins to take down the Yankees finally after years and years of ineptitude against the Bronx Bombers, but instead we were all treated to one of the biggest step-downs I've in the postseason in years, in any sport. I mean, even for the Twins, and even against the Yankees, this was a huge puss-out for the Twins. They did not come to play, they allowed themselves to get rolled over by a pitching staff that has been very assailable by many teams throughout this season, and they continued with their total inability to hold on to any kind of a lead whatsoever, even late in games. The Twins led in two of the three games of the series, one of them late, and they had homefield in both games where they led. The fact that they got bounced this badly by a team with noticeable weaknesses compared to last year's world championship team is a huge black mark on that team and on Rod Gardenhire, who I now can only label as the game's best regular season coach, not best overall coach given his total postseason ineptitude.

Looking forward, the Rays would have been a much, much better matchup with the Yankees I think, other than the one big, fat, huge scary part about the Rangers to every Yankee fan in the world -- Cliff Lee. Recall that as a Phillie in 2009, Lee won both of his starts against the Yankees, including in Game 1 when he came out and absolutely moved down the best lineup in the AL by far. And the sick thing about watching Lee pitch is how incredibly calm and stone-faced he seems out there, even in the biggest spots of his life. Who could forget this catch by Lee in Game 1 of the World Series last year, when it was almost like he was too busy thinking of something else to be bothered really paying attention while making this catch. It is a small, insignificant play but I think speaks volumes about Lee and his ability to shine against the best lineup in the game while under the biggest spotlight in his sport. Unfortunately, even though I never believed the Yankees would make the World Series this year after around the halfway point in this regular season, I just don't see the Rangers as having quite enough on either the offense or the pitching staff to take down this juggernaut Yankees squad. Especially with the way that Andy Pettitte and Phil Hughes pitched against the pussies Twins, the Yankees have got to be a significant favorite in this series, despite the fact that every Yankee fan out there is quaking in their boots about facing Cliff Lee. Not having to face Lee until Game 3 was the Yankees' biggest win of the entire postseason so far, and is a major factor in my thinking the Rangers will not have enough to find their way to their second-ever postseason series win as a franchise.

The National League divisional series had much less excitement and interest, and they went right along with the chalk. The Phillies took the best-hitting, most prolific run-scoring team in the National League in the Reds, and no-hit them in the first game, gave up 3 earned runs in the second, and then 2-hit complete game shut them out again in the third game to nab the easy sweep for the far and away the league's greatest team. Meanwhile, equally prdictably on the other side, the incredible pitching staff of the Giants was as expected far too much for a very ordinary Braves lineup, and they easily disposed of Atlanta in four games with no big offensive outputs throughout out of the overmatched Braves batters.

People are having fun predicting the Giants to take out the Phillies or at least to make a serious run at the best team the National League has seen in some 90 years, but to be perfectly honest I am just not seeing it. I mean, there is no doubt that the Giants are the team I would have wanted the Phillies to face the least, because between Lincecum and Sanchez they have two starters who have previously and I am sure will again shut down the Phils' lineup, and we could easily face those two starters as many as five times in a 7-game series. Plus the Giants' bullpen is excellent, which is the only weakness this Phillies team has here in the 2010 postseason. But in the end, even though I respect the Giants' picthers quite a bit, I am just not seeing this as anything but an awful matchup for them. The Phils have homefield advantage, and even though I could surely see Lincecum outlasting Roy Halladay in a pitchers duel in one of his two starts in Games 1 and 4, the bottom line is that the matchups of Halladay vs. Lincecum -- both in Philadelphia -- and Oswalt vs. Sanchez -- one in Philly and one in San Fran -- plus Cole Hamels pitching Games 3 and 7 against the Giants' #3 starter, and again with the extra game at home in Philly, this one just seems like a mismatch to me for the defending NL champs. This Phillies lineup is the total opposite of the Braves' light-hitting squad, and those games that were 1-0 and 3-2 wins for the Giants in the NLDS are more likely in my mind to be 5-3 and 6-1 losses for the Giants here in the NLCS.

In any event, Friday cannot get here quickly enough for those of us big baseball fans out there. It's been quite a ride so far and it should only get better from here as we march towards the 2010 World Series.

MLB, and NFL Week 4 Picks

Wow. The story so far in the early part of the Divisional Series in baseball is twofold. First, can the Twins hold on to a fucking lead one time? Just one time? Christ, as of this writing that is now 8 consecutive losses for the Twins -- who are perennially in the postseason -- in which they have held the lead at some point in the game. Go win a whole game already. Unreal.

But the real biggest story of the playoffs so far has been the two unbelievable performances from big-time pitchers stepping up in the very first appearance in the MLB postseason. First it was Phildelphia Phillies Roy Halladay throwing a no-hitter against the National League's highest-scoring team in the Reds the other day in his first time ever in a playoff game, a feat only equalled one other time in well over a century of baseball history, and making Halladay the first man to ever pitch a regular season and a postseason no-hitter in the same year. And then on Thursday night, those of you who stayed up late to watch were treated to a gem of a game that saw young Tim Lincecum hurl a complete game, two-hit dominating shutout that included 14 strikeouts and some of the most tensely exciting, stressful pitching around as his team held on for a 1-0 victory in Game 1 of that series. How unfortunate that the one run scored in the game was actually the result of a single to knock in a runner from second who had clearly clearly clearly been thrown out stealing second a few pitches earlier. It wasn't close, and the replay makes it just so painfully obvious. The guy stole second, was out by a mile, got called safe, and two pitches later came in on a single that should never have been, and there's your game, 1-0.

Is it me, or is the refereeing in sports -- all sports -- just getting worse and worse and worse every year? I used to think it was just that our technology with respect to replays was getting better and better every year, and thus able to catch more and more mistakes, but really these guys are just missing so many calls, making themselves the story and the deciding factor in these games instead of the people we ultimately are paying millions of dollars a year to see play. It's one of the worst trends in sports, and is it me or is this as bad as it's ever been right now at this exact moment after the last few days of the playoffs and what's gone down in the NFL already this year?

And while I'm asking questions, is it me, or is Tim Lincecum the spitting image of that kid from "Dazed and Confused" who played the main character who was about to go to high school? I'm pretty sure if I go back and check that, that kid's name is gonna be Timmy Lincecum in the credits. No reason to even check really, it's obviously that kid.

Anyways, the baseball is making waves already but that's not really what I'm here to talk about today. Today is Friday and that means I am in here with five more NFL picks, as I seek some direction after a 2-3 week -- in which I straight-up blew a couple of the games in my worst actual weak of the season so far -- that has left me now right back at .500 for the year at 7-7-1, which equals not a break-even but a loss of 7/10 of a unit assuming a 10% vig on each bet. No big whoop but I am here to do better than that. Last week was putrid, let us try to get back on the winning bandwagon with some trends I have noticed that I do not think have adequately been priced in to the lines quite yet.

1. St. Louis Rams +3 at Detroit Lions. Here's one of the trends I am talking about: The Rams are for real. Some people may be starting to realize this, but to be docking a team as bad as the Lions an extra field goal against what I believe is a clearly superior team right now is I think still a mistake. I say better than 50% chance that Sam Bradford -- who is definitely for real -- and Steve Spagnuolo -- who is also definitely for real -- will combine with the stingy Rams' defense -- who by the way is also for real having given up just 13 points per game so far through four games against admittedly bad teams, to put up a good fight and I have decent confidence they will keep this one real close as the Rams continue to get better each and every week.

2. Carolina Panthers +3 vs. Chicago Bears. Something tells me that Jay Cutler is mostly faking these concussion-like symptoms he has been complaining about this week, after taking nine sacks last week in the first half last week at the Giants, and that the linesmakers have not quite taken into account yet the cancerous effect that a guy like Cutler can have in a locker room when his vag starts to cry like it always does. The Panthers still have a great coach, and they're not going to 0-8 at home this season, and the Bears are coming in with Cutler on the bench and Todd Collins starting at quarterback.

Yes, that's right. I just said Todd Collins. I'll take the home team and the points. That one seems like another pretty easy win.

3. Tennessee Titans +7 at Dallas Cowboys. Here I think the line is reacting a bit too much to the Titans' surprising loss last week at the hands of Denver, but a team like this in my mind is going to bounce back much more strongly this week at the Cowboys. No way Jeff Fisher's team is coming out flat again and getting pushed around on the line like the Titans did last week by the Broncos. I'm not sure they will win this game, but I'm looking for the Titans to play sufficiently not like they did last week, and the Cowboys are really a crapshoot anyways right now in terms of how they'll play in any given week, to make this a nice value with the full touchdown on top. This should also be a win.

4. San Francisco 49ers -4 vs. Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles are beatable right now, and there's no way the Niners are going to go 0-8 at home this year so they too are going to win one of these games sooner or later. This seems like the right matchup for that to happen, especially with the Eagles flying all the way across the country for this game and double-especially with the absolute joke of a game plan the team had in place last week against a hapless Redskin squad. Something tells me the 49ers cover late in this one.

5. I'm going to be an idiot and once again pick the Saints as a hefty favorite, and even worse this time on the road. It's New Orleans Saints -7 at Arizona Cardinals. I mean, only an idiot would actually fall for this pick, but I read yesterday that the Cardinals are amazingly benching Derek Anderson now in favor of starting their undrafted rookie no-name from Okeefenokee U. What that team has done with the qb situation in Arizona this year is just comical. Anyways, of course the Saints haven't played well enough to cover a line like this in any of their games this year, let alone on the road across the country like this, but I'm an idiot, have my picks not made that clear enough already? This one is a loss.

Best of luck to me and to all of you who are playing the games. May your fantasy teams experience more luck than your opponents' teams experience.

2010 MLB Playoff Predictions

Well, once again I'm not going to be posting these until after some of the Game 1s have already begun in this year's postseason baseball season, but as with my preseason NFL picks, most of this post was written prior to Wednesday's kickoff to the 2010 postseason games.

1. Rays vs Rangers. I'm going with the Rays in this one. They've got home field advantage, they had the most wins in the American League this season, and unlike when they had their unlikely postseason run back in 2008, now this is a team with plenty of experienced players with postseason and even World Series games under their belt. Cliff Lee did not surprise me much in winning Game 1 today or really any time he steps on the mound, but I still have a feeling that the Rays will quickly turn this back into a series again and will likely prevail in the end over what is a very good Texas Rangers team.

2. Yankees vs. Twins. I have turned this one over and over and over in my head, and try as I might I just cannot shake this nagging feeling that the Twins are finally going to break through this year. Secretly I have thought the Twins have been the best team in the AL for the past several months, and all this with star Justin Morneau -- who hit .345 with 18 home runs this year in 82 total games -- missing fully half the season to injury, and with the closer Joe Nathan missing the entire season with Tommy John surgery earlier this year. And the main thing I just can't get past is that the Yankees' rotation is simply not close to what it used to be. Yeah AJ Burnett has kinda sucked balls late this year, but at least with him last year you knew he might bust out with a great start, every once in a while. Now this year, the Yankees are looking at CC Sabathia, who of course is a horse, but after that it's an injured Andy Pettite who has posted an ERA of nearly 7 since returning from something like 6 weeks on the disabled list, and then it's Phil Hughes who didn't really pitch well for the past two months of the season in his own right. And that's it, that's the whole rotation, just those three pitchers for Joe Girardi in the postseason. And I worry that, after losing the division to the Rays on the final day of the regular season and thus having to go on the road to play Minnesota in their brand new stadium in Games 1 and 2, if CC can't get it done early then this could be a quick series for the defending World Champions.

Giants vs. Braves. I'm going to go with the chalk here and take the Giants, whose pitching staff I just see dominating the Braves' faltering lineup, especially with homefield advantage also leaning their way. The Braves really cooled off in the final month or two of the season, and meanwhile the Giants did nothing short of posting the best team ERA in September in the last 40 years since the days when Tom Seaver graced the mound. I was a big Braves guy earlier in the season, but this Giants rotation is going to be very difficult for them to beat in a 5-game series without homefield advantage.

Phillies vs. Reds. Of course this one is very close to home for me, but this Phillies team is going to be a huge task for anyone in the National League. Not only were the Fightin Phils 2010's best team, but they had 54 wins at home and will have homefield advantage all throughout the entire postseason. And when it comes to a starting rotation, this is the best staff that comes to mind since those steroid-fueled Yankees teams of the early 2000s at least. You've got Roy Halladay, the lock NL Cy Young winner, and you've got Roy Oswalt, who led the NL in WHIP with a stunning 1.02, and then there's Cole Hamels, who might have been the NL's best pitcher in the final two months of the season. In a short series like this, this Reds team -- whose whole "World Series" was just returning to the postseason this year after a long absence -- should be no match for the best team in the sport in 2010.

Oh, and Roy Halladay just pitched a mutha fuckin no hitter against them too. What a fucking stallion.

Football Frenzy, and Favre F*cks it Again

Kostanza FTW!! That's right -- after going an abysmal 6-21 or whatever it was in my final 27 picks of the NFL season, including the first two rounds of the playoffs where I finished 3-5, it had become painfully obvious to me that I had turned into the Joe Bloggs of picking NFL games. There's just no other way to see it, and I am nothing if not introspective. So, being that I was still interested in picking these games, that left me with little else to do last Thursday night other than to pull a George Kostanza from undoubtedly the best Seinfeld episode ever, and just pick each game exactly as I normally would, and then bet the opposite of those picks. I mean, I literally won just 6 out of my last 27 picks, so that means I was reliably wrong in my analysis an amazing 78% of the time! Who in the world has access to an indicator that spot-on for NFL games, right? Just me. And the result?

A big, fat 2-0 on the weekend. And what a weekend it was of NFL football.

Where to begin? I suppose let's start with the Colts. I don't want to write a lot about what an amazing performance Peyton Manning had against the vaunted Jets defense, who coming in had only given up 8 passing touchdowns all season before Manning torched them for three on Sunday afternoon, mostly because I know everyone else in the world is gonna be gushing about the guy for the next two weeks straight. But it's pretty clear what happened in that game in my eyes. When the Jets played the Bengals in the playoffs, Darelle Revis essentially took Chad Ochocinco out of the game as far as big plays, and qb Carson Palmer and the Bengals couldn't get it going anywhere else enough to make a game out of it with the Jets. Then last week, when the Jets visited the Chargers, once again Darelle Revis essentially took Vincent Jackson out of the game from a big-play perspective -- V-Jack actually had a very productive day but he was not in the picture in the big plays and did not sniff a touchdown on the day. Although Antonio Gates also went on to have a similarly nice day in stats but never getting near the end zone, the bottom line is that Phillip Rivers and that team were simply not able to make effective use of their other players once V-Jack wasn't going to be catching any 45-yard touchdowns on the day, and the Jets' defense ended up totally stifling and embarrassing the Chargers in front of their home-town fans. So when the Jets brought Darelle Revis into Indy-town this weekend for the right to play in the Superbowl, they figured he would be able to essentially keep Reggie Wayne out of the end zone, and once again they were right. But unlike Carson Palmer and the Phillip Rivers before him, Peyton Manning had just the answer for the deletion of Reggie Wayne from his repertoire in this game: Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie. Two rookies. Rookies! And this time it was the Jets who just had no answer, as Manning absolutely lit up that defense for nearly 400 yards and 3 touchdowns just through the air, and as expected the Jets were just not able to keep up.

Think about the Jets' side of things for a minute, it hardly needs to be said out loud how clearly this was a very solid year for the beleaguered "second franchise" from New Jersey York. I mean, this was a rookie head coach in Rex Ryan who, by the end of the season, seemed to have more or less figured out this league, didn't he? What he did to the Bengals was one thing, they had a very good year and many expected them to win the game in the Wildcard round a few weeks back, but it was the Chargers game that really cemented this team's season this year as more than just a passing fancy. And they also played a rookie quarterback behind center all season as well, and even though there were a great many low points during Sanchise's 2009 campaign, he certainly finished up strong, winning seven of his final eight starts before losing to the Colts, and winning three out of four on the road in his final four games of the season to make it to the conference championship in his first season as a pro. This team has a long way to go to be able to best the likes of Peyton Manning, but at the same time, unlike some teams that played this weekend, it's not like they mistake'd themselves into losing to the Colts on Sunday. The best team in the AFC from start to finish is the one going to the Superbowl now, and the Jets made a nice effort but simply did not have what it takes to stop Peyton Manning, most likely the greatest quarterback to ever play the game. When you see a guy doing what he does statistically -- taking on all comers, including the NFL's best defense in the Jets this weekend -- and also clearly playing the role of offensive coordinator, audibling and calling the plays regularly on offense, and the offensive line coach, etc. it's easy to forget that no other player in the league does that. Manning is just mind-numbing.

Anyways, I promised myself I wouldn't write about Peyton like that in this post. So moving on to the other game, this was another great shootout-style of game like we've seen elsewhere in the NFC playoffs this year, only the point totals at 31-28 were not quite as high as previously, mostly because there were 87 turnovers in this game. And the New Orleans Saints are going to their first Superbowl ever. For those of you who have spent any amount of time in New Orleans over the years, can you even imagine the party going on there last night (and still now I am sure)? Or in two weeks if the Saints manage to find a way to outscore Peyton and the Colts? Wow. Drew Brees only threw for 197 yards, but his three touchdowns were enough to keep pace with the Vikings, who badly outgained the Saints on the day and seemed to move the ball at will before either AP, Brett Favre, or a combination of both AP and Brett Favre would fumble the ball, with the occasional interception thrown in as well for good measure.

And for the Vikings fans out there, what a sick, sick way to end the 2009-2010 season, obviously. The Favre haters out there -- and lord knows there are a shit-ton of you, you know who you are -- could literally not have scripted this thing better. I mean, the poetic justice of Favre coming back to the Vikings this year, having the year he had, with 30-some tds and just the 7 interceptions, to then end the team's run in a situation where his team basically had a long field goal attempt to win the game already, and really only needed 5 or 10 more yards to give their kicker a really good shot, by throwing that interception. It's like a movie, almost. A horror flick for the Minnesota fans out there, that is for sure. Favre actually threw too hideous picks in the game, as I've heard some monkeys on the radio since the game give Favre a pass due to the rush about to hit him on his first pick, in reality that's exactly what made that so horrible. He Eli Manning'ed it! The rush was coming in his face, and rather than chuck the ball away, or just tuck it in and take the sack, instead Favre leans back on his heels, falling backwards, and just sidearms the ball forward to avoid getting tackled with the ball. And it goes right to the Saints defender cutting in from the side, who of course Favre didn't see as he fell backward and lashed out his arm blindly at the last possible second.

And then Favre's interception with his team very close to field goal range with 8 seconds left in a tie game....I mean, if you're Brett Favre, how do you throwing a fuggin pick there? How? Your team is close to field goal range, your kicker's career long is the exact 57 yards that this kick would be right now if the Vikes cannot pick up any more yards. If you can get maybe 5, maybe 10 more yards, that would probably make a big difference. Just run the ball, maybe throw a real short, real quick screen or something. Whatever you do, just make sure you don't throw a pick. Not with a chance to win the game and go to the Superbowl already within our grasp. While Mark Sanchez of the Jets for the most part played a solid game against the Colts in the early game on Sunday, it turned out to be Brett Favre who played more like Sanchise, throwing just 1 touchdown but the two huge interceptions that kept his team from having a chance to win this game in a spot where they very nearly already had a chance to win if they could have only held on to the ball.

And while I'm on the topic, Brad Childress embarrassed himself so much as a head coach this year. I mean, he's actually worse than Andy Reid! Hands down. Not only was there the whole debacle this year where Favre bent him over and fire-raped him when Childress failed in his attempt to wrestle play-calling control back from Favre who was repeatedly changing running plays to passing plays all season long, but Childress single-handedly contributed to his team's breakdown at the end of regulation, and it was the kind of mistake that is so blatant, so overt, that people all over the country (yours truly included) were pointing it out right when he did it, as opposed to just after the fact. After Chester Taylor ripped off a nice run for a new first down in Saints' territory, Brad Childress made the unthinkable decision to just run the clown down until there was just time for one or two plays left, rather than using a couple of well-intentioned running plays to do that while also picking up a few more yards along the way. Instead, because Childress allowed time to whittle down to only one or two plays left, when his team then made an incredible procedure penalty to get moved our of field goal range, he put Favre in a situation where Favre felt pressure to make some kind of a play, and to do so fast. This doesn't absolve Favre from his shit throw or his penchant for ending seasons and dashing his fans' hopes with overtime interceptions late in the playoffs, but Childress deserves a huge amount of the blame for his utterly obvious, even-in-real-time evident gaffe that directly cost his team a trip to the Superbowl. Brett Favre might be careless in the clutch, but Brad Childress, you are a bona fide moron.

This week I should have two fun posts on stories of nice tournament scores I have made of late, one at Bally's in Atlantic City in their daily bounty tournament and one in the UBOC going on right now at UltimateBet.

NFL Conference Championship Picks

OK, we're going to try something new here with this week's NFL picks. After going something like 6-21 in my last 27 picks this season (including the playoffs), I've gotten to the point where I cannot make a good pick to save my life. In fact, that has become just about as reliable an indicator as any other pattern I'm seeing out there, to the point that I'm ready to put my money where my mouth is and bet on it.

That's right -- it's time for some opposite picks. Works like a charm.

So first, we've got the Indianapolis Colts favored by 8 points at home over the New York Jets. Here is where normally I would point out how incredibly well the Jets' defense has been playing, including completely stifling the 11-game-win-streak San Diego Chargers in San Diego last week to the tune of just 7 points scored before trash time in that game by one of the NFL's most prolific scoring offenses. I would also point out that it was just a 5-point game early in the third quarter when these two teams met a few weeks ago before the Colts pulled their starters and eventually lost to allow the Jets into the playoffs. I would mention how the Colts are simply not the excessive-scoring offense that they may have been in the past, looking at their schedule all throughout this year. Lastly I would point out how well Mark Sanchez has been playing here over the past month, in particular in not trying to do too much and in not throwing costly interceptions or making idiot plays. All of this leads me to the obvious conclusion that a spread of more than a touchdown simply is too much for this game.

And thus, the pick is? Indianapolis. Lay the 8. It doesn't make sense, but like I said picking the opposite of what makes sense to me would have been a very profitable strategy over the past month of NFL football.

In the other game this weekend, it's the New Orleans Saints favored by 3.5 over the visiting Minnesota Favres, and again I think it's pretty clear which way my sensibilities lean. Although both teams absolutely shat the bed at the end of the regular season this year, the Saints are the home team, they were the better team during the entire season this year, and they looked to have bounced back even harder last week in a 45-14 brutalization of the defending NFC Champion Cardinals than the Favres did in smushing the Cowboys. Especially given Brett Favre's penchant for stepping down in big spots late in his career, and since I have the feeling that this is finally going to be Drew Brees' time to shine, that line of barely more than a field goal seems a bit on the low side to me. Thus, since all logic dictates a pick on the Saints, take the Favres, plus the 3.5 points.

Should be a fun chance this weekend to see just how bad I am really running in these NFL games. Because, if you get every game you pick wrong for a month, so then you decide to go opposite of what you want to pick the games as, and you go on to lose those opposite picks as well, then you know you are *seriously* running bad.

NFL Divisional Round Picks

Four more games this week, in the week where we usually see the blowouts but who knows as there do appear to be some compelling matchups to decide who will battle it out for the conference championship in the respective conferences. I went 2-2 last week, which as I mentioned is not a profitable way to be, but it was my best performance in a month and ultimately saw me correctly pick half the games when not being given a choice in which games to select, so I suppose I can be halfway-satisfied with .500 in the first round of the playoffs. Looking forward to getting back on the profit train after now five weeks away from that whole part of the station. So without further adieu:

1. Arizona Cardinals +7 at the New Orleans Saints. The early Saturday game has all the makings of an extreme shootout to kick off the divisional round of the playoffs in the NFL, as the Cardinals come in fresh off of their thrilling 51-45 victory against the Packers that included them giving up five touchdowns in the second half of that game alone. And the Saints have been reeling themselves, losing their last three games after a 13-0 start, and having not won in more than a month at this point. Given what the Pack did last week, one can only assume that the Saints will not have any trouble scoring the ball, and there is no way I am betting against Kurt Warner doing much of the same for his squad after his incredible performance last week and in the post-season in general over his career. Even though I believe the Saints should find a way to win this game at home, there is enough chance that the Cardinals could win outright that, when combined with all the ways they could lose but by less than 7, the value just once again seems to sit with the underdog in this matchup in my eyes.

2. Indianapolis Colts +6 vs Baltimore Ravens. The Saturday night game is one where I like the favorite, for the first time in this entire playoffs so far in fact. I picked Baltimore last week and I have a lot of respect for Joe Flacco, Coach Harbaugh and everything the Ravens managed to do this year in fighting their way into the playoffs out of a very crowded bottom of the AFC playoff race. And I do not think the Colts are some kind of an unbeatable team by any means, as we have seen year in and year out since Tony Dungy was the coach of this team and could only find the promised land once with Peyton Manning at the helm. But ultimately I have a metric shit-ton of respect for Peyton Manning, and I think his creativity, his awareness and his spontanaeity at the line will be enough to get the victory against a Ravens team that seems really undermanned in the passing game. With this explosive, quick-strike Colts offense playing in the dome at home, and with the Ravens getting a little old on defense, there is a good chance that the Colts drop behind early in this one, and I don't like Flacco et al to play well enough from behind to keep this quite to within one score.

3. Dallas Cowboys +3 at Minnesota Vikings. The Sunday 1pm game is another one like my first pick above where I just think there is more value on the underdog than on the favorite in the game. The Cowboys have looked great over their past several games, while the Vikes haven't played well against a real opponent in going on 6 weeks now thanks to a weak end of the season for Brad Childress & crew. And with as many weapons as the Vikings have on offense with Brett Favre, Adrian Peterson and all those good receivers, I honestly think the Cowboys are one of the few teams in the league that can go toe-to-toe with the Vikes on the talent front. Although Minnesota's rush defense is excellent, they have not faced an O-line like Dallas' yet this season, and the Vikings have been shown to be very vulnerable to strong passing teams. With Tony Romo playing very well lately and taking especially good care of the ball, I predict a big day for Miles Austin and especially for Jason Witten, and I suspect it will be enough to at least keep Dallas in this game heading into the fourth quarter. It's another example of where I think the chances of Dallas winning outright plus the chance of them losing by a field goal or less is just a bit greater than Minnesota's chance of winning by more than 3.

4. San Diego Chargers -7 vs New York Jets. I don't know exactly how this game plays out such that the Chargers win by a touchdown or more, but I just have a feeling that the Jets' run ends here on Sunday afternoon. Although I would not at all be shocked to see the Jets keep this one within 7 points, ultimately I think the Jets' defense is just not going to be good enough to contain all the myriad weapons the Chargers can throw at you (pun intended) on offense. Sure, Darrelle Revis is a beast and I think clearly the #1 cover guy in the NFL today, but unfortunately for Jets' rookie head coach Rex Ryan, Revis is just one man. So they can put him on Vincent Jackson and basically take Jackson out of the game, but then they still need to worry about Malcom Floyd and Darren Sproles coming out of the backfield (each with 45 receptions on the season), and of course let's not forget big Antonio Gates, the best tight end in the league today as well. And then there's always Sproles and LaDainian Tomlinson coming out of the backfield. I just don't think this Jets defense has it in them to hold by far the NFL's hottest team down for long enough to keep this one real close. And as I mentioned with the Ravens above, if the Jets fall behind early to the Chargers' juggernaut offense, that ruins the game plan of keeping Jets' rookie qb Mark Sanchez from having to do too much. They fall behind early and I could see a flat-out blowout in the making for San Diego.

Wildcard Weekend Whoopass

As usual, the NFL delivered in a big way this weekend with its wildcard round of playoff games for the 2009-2010 season, games which I was actually able to watch most of for a change. I went 2-2 overall with my picks, which isn't great obviously but at the same time it is (1) far better than my picks performed over the last four weeks of the regular season, and (2) not as bad as it looks, considering that now I am "forcing" myself to pick each playoff game instead of just getting to choose my favorite lines and only cherry-picking those in connection with each week's games. Even in the two games I lost, I had a general idea of how the games were likely to go, but I just ended up on the wrong side of the bet in the end.

First on Saturday afternoon there was the Jets - Bengals game, which saw the Jets shock the world (but not you if you read my picks on Friday) in pretty much beating down on the Bengals for the second straight week, both games at Cincinnati. I don't know what much there is to say about this game for the Bengals, who I will show some respect to by not calling them the "Bungles" again even though the way this season ended definitely has me thinking they will be back to the Bungles come next season. Suffice it to say that this could be the poster-child for why you do not necessarily come out and give up in Week 17 for the purpose of "hiding the ball" a little bit when you know are are probably facing a team again the very next week in the playoffs. Turns out the Bengals hid the ball so much in Week 17 that they couldn't even find it again when it came to play in the wildcard round, and the Jets stuck it to them. On offense, the Bengals clearly have a problem passing the ball. Ochocinco is not what he used to be, and the loss of Chris Henry and TJ Houshmanzadeh over the past year is really felt by Cincinnati. And my guess is that Carson Palmer's injured thumb plays a much bigger role than he has been letting on, as he looks like a shadow of his former self. And give the Jets a boatload of credit here, as they continued with the game plan of the last few weeks of the regular season which involves not asking rookie qb Mark Sanchez to do much at all in the games. Instead they just pile up the rushing yards, which the Bengals were all too happy to cede for the second straight week at home, and in this game they only asked Sanchise to throw the ball 15 times total, which again is the only winning strategy for this team in my book. Sure, Sanchise only had one touchdown pass on Saturday -- not counting the wide open one dropped by Braylon "Butterfingers" Edwards in the first half -- but he went a very efficient 12 for 15 on the day for 182 yards, and more importantly, he had zero interceptions as well in his first playoff game. This one clearly went to the better team in the Jets, which I don't see how or why anyone would argue after the last two weeks between these two foes.

The second game on Saturday was the one game I did not see coming, but really, being an Eagles fan, I should have. For the second straight week, the Eagles could really get nothing going against the Dallas Cowboys, and doing nothing is not going to keep you in the game for long against this Dallas team, especially in their gorgeous new stadium. Sure in my picks I took the points against a team of proven losers in Romo, Wade Phillips et al on a Cowboys squad that hadn't won a playoff game since 1996, but betting with history was not the best idea in retrospect as compared to betting based on the game I watched the week before where the Cowboys also obliterated the Eagles. Anyways, kudos to Dallas for going out and grabbing this victory from the hated Eagles, but boy did the Eagles make it easy for them, starting, as usual with the head coach. Andy Reid has a stellar record over his career in the regular season as a head coach. As I mentioned previously, this is Andy's 9th trip to the playoffs in the last 11 seasons as head coach of the Eagles, a record that is truly remarkable especially given the parity year in and year out in the NFL of all the professional sports leagues in this country. But, as any longtime Eagles fan knows, Andy Reid's vagina shuts up tighter than a nun's heading into any big game, a pattern that unfortunately for Eagles fans has managed to repeat itself again and again and again over all those years of regular season success with Reid at the helm. For the second straight week, the Eagles came out listless on both sides of the ball, allowing the Cowboys to march down the field on their first few possessions on defense, while McNabb fired his patented bullets into the ground five feet away from open receivers on offense, and all through the game for the second straight week the team made almost no effort whatsoever to throw the ball downfield to big play receiver DeSean Jackson. Combine this with the fact that the Cowboys secondary stuck to Philly's wideouts like glue all night long, and the result was a confused McNabb looking repeatedly from one receiver to the next without anyone to throw too from beginning to end. Dallas will travel to Minnesota next week in a game that I could see being a real shootout, along with the other NFC playoff game which is almost sure to feature some high-powered offense next weekend as well.

The first Sunday game was without a doubt the highlight of the weekend, as the New England Cheatriots came out and shat the bed in a big way, more or less just like I thought they would against the Ravens even though they had not previously lost a game at home all season. After losing Wes Welker early in the game in Week 17, and with Randy Moss playing all lackluster already here late in the season, and no real running game to speak of, and a questionable defense, the Pats came out flat and deflated and ready to call it a season, allowing Ray Rive to scamper for 83 yards and a score on the very first play from scrimmage, and the Ravens simply never let up from there. In the end, Tom Brady threw for just 154 yards on 23 completions for an anemic 6.6 yards per completion, including a fumble and three picks on the day as Brady compiled his worst-ever playoff qb rating of 49.1 on the day, and while the Cheatriots could muster nothing on the ground either, the Ravens plowed ahead, outgaining the Pats on the ground 234 yards to 64 yards in what proved to be the crucial stat of the day. The final score of 33-14 does not even encapsulate just how bad of a blowout this game was, with the Ravens up 14-0 within the first five minutes of the game in New England, and up 24-0 in the first quarter before the Pats could even muster up their first scoring drive of the game. It was so ugly, and the Pats made so little effort to come back in any way, that Baltimore qb Joe Flacco only had to throw the ball 10 times on the day, with his team comfortably in front and able to wear the Pats down with repeated assaults on the ground, even when the Cheatriots knew that was exactly what was coming. It was as bad of a beatdown as you almost ever see in the NFL playoffs these days.

Worth mentioning with respect to the Ravens - Pats game was just how badly the referees tried to help the Cheatriots get back into things in the second half with some of the worst refereeing ineptitude you will ever see in the NFL. First they awarded the ball to the Cheatriots after a punt in the third quarter nicked the shoulder of a Ravens player before being recovered by the Cheatriots, only to see on the replay that clearly the Pats player had not taken possession of the ball before knocking it out of bounds. For some reason the Ravens failed to challenge this play even though it was as clear as the day is long that the call was blown and the referees had no business missing something so clear-cut. But only about 3 minutes of game time later, early in the 4th quarter, came perhaps the worst call of a season mired by utterly atrocious refereeing, when the Ravens scored to go ahead 33-14 and decided to go for the 2-point conversion. Baltimore's player took the ball and pounded ahead towards the goal line, reaching over and causing most of his teammates on the field to raise their arms in the touchdown motion as they thought the ball had in fact "crossed the plane" of the goal line. Apparently though that's not the actual rule, because the refs on the field said he did not score, and they even reviewed the instant replay play in the booth, where -- of fucking course -- the refs opted not to overrule the call on the field that he had not crossed the plane. This, while NBC is showing the replay again and again that shows not just the nose of the ball, and not just an inch of the ball, but fully more than half the ball, not just touching the beginning of the white goal line (which is a touchdown, for those who know the rules of the NFL), and not just nearing the paint of the end zone, but more than half the ball sticking over the other side of the white goal line and over the colored end zone grass. How any self-respecting asshat with eyes could watch that replay and possibly argue anything other than that it was an obvious touchdown is beyond me, and beyond the sensibility of every single other human being watching that game. Thankfully, the Cheatriots had absolutely no heart and no comeback in them whatsoever on this day, and no way that the refs intentionally tried to alter the outcome of this game was going to have any effect. Once again the better team won and the Ravens will now advance to play the Colts in Indy next weekend.

Lastly was the 51-45 all-time NFL postseason shootout between the defending NFC champion Cardinals and the Green Bay Packers. I picked the Packers in a pickem here, and this was one game that the oddsmakers basically nailed, as the game went into overtime at 45-45 after the Packers mounted a ferocious, incredible comeback that saw them score five touchdowns in the second half including the game-tying one with under two minutes to go in the game. Although the notion of defense is obviously completely anathema to either team in this matchup, the offensive prowess in this game was utterly sick, in particular the passing games which saw Green Bay throw for 422 yards and the Cardinals for 379. Kurt Warner has got to be the story in this one though, after finishing his day an incredible 29-33 for 379 yards and 5 picks, the only time I have ever heard of where a quarterback finished a game with more touchdowns (5) than incompletions (4) on the day. Zona's offense crushed so badly that they amazingly only faced five third down plays in the entire game, going 3 for 5 but showing just how well the Cards were pounding the Packers' laughable excuse for a defense on the first three downs of every series. I mean, can you imagine running up 51 points and 531 yards of total offense, while only facing five third downs in the entire game, including overtime? And Kurt Warner's postseason record is becoming flat-out ridiculous, with Kurt now sporting 31 touchdowns to just 13 picks in 24 post-season games against touch competition, inluding incredibly the three best yardage games in superbowl history (414 against the Titans, 377 vs. the Steelers and 365 against the Cheatriots), the most career super bowl passing yardage with 1156, while Warner's 1147 yards and 11 passing touchdowns in last year's postseason also has him the record for most yards passing and most touchdowns in a single post-season. Warner's 66.5% career completion percentage in the post-season is also an NFL record, while his 104.6 career postseason qb rating is second only to Bart Starr himself. And Warner is already only the second quarterback to ever throw for five touchdowns in a playoff game two separate times. And now Warner will ride his Cardinals into New Orleans for a huge matchup next Saturday afternoon with the NFC 1 seed in the Saints, in a game that could easily be a repeat shootout of what we saw last night in Arizona. How I cannot wait for that one.

NFL -- 2009 in Review

So the 2009 NFL regular season has now come and gone, and -- as usual -- what a crazy year it was. Once again the NFL shows why it is the king of all sports in this country -- this is a league that consistently seems to put together the best and most flexible schedules as far as televising their contests, and it's a league that showcases its stars, stars who are for the most part about as athletic as anyone in the sports world today. But the NFL has also figured out that parity is key to the long-term success of a sports league in America -- something the other major sports still seem to be trying to figure out, with varying levels of success. So the worst teams automatically get the best picks every year, and the result is that nothing is set in stone from one year to the next, something which fills the entire NFL fan base with excitement and anticipation heading into every year anew. And of course the league was full of the usual big stories that really provided heightened interest for all who enjoy taking in a game (or sixteen) during the weekends in the cold months for most of the country.

Without question one of the biggest stories of the NFL in 2009 has got to be Brett Favre's return to football in Minnesota. Although through 10 games the Vikings were 9-1 with Favre at the helm, and Favre was at the time a clear candidate for the league's MVP, the real story emerged in the final few games of the season when it came out that Favre had been systematically changing his head coach's running plays to pass plays in audibles and the line of scrimmage over the past several games. This culminated a few weeks back against the Panthers when Vikings coach Brad Childress informed Favre that he was to be benched in favor of Tavaris Jackson in a 7-6 game, after which Favre essentially told his coach to go screw, he wasn't leaving the game. Childress relented, and the parties later claimed to have cleared up their differences, but ultimately the Favre saga remains one of the key pieces of the NFL story in 2009, especially with his team heading into the playoffs losing 3 of its final 5 games.

Which leads me to my second big story of the 2009 NFL season -- the end-of-season collapse of the league's three biggest juggernaut teams. Although every year we do see the best teams sit players and not play to win in their final game or two if they can get some extra rest for their stars as a result, I definitely cannot remember a year when the league's best teams all entered the playoffs on such a shaky note. The Vikings, as mentioned above, were 10-1 after Week 12 but ended the season 12-4 after losses at the Cardinals, at the Panthers and at the Bears in the final quarter of the season. But this pales in comparison to the league's two real titans, starting with the Vikings' NFC rivals in the New Orleans Saints. Here was a team that was 13-0 after Week 14, but then suddenly the bottom dropped out and after trying to lose several games earlier in the season, Dallas stepped in in Week 14 and beat the Saints by 7 in front of the hometown New Orleans fans. Then the Saints followed that game up with an inexplicable overtime loss to the lowly Bucanneers, finally ending the season by pulling their starters and getting beat down on by a rallying Panthers looking to save their head coach's job for at least another year.

And then we come to the Colts. This might have become the story of the year after the Favre stuff died down in the final couple weeks of the season, as Colts head coach Jim Caldwell opted to pull his entire starting squad with a 5-point lead in the third quarter against the Jets in Week 16 despite his team sitting at 14-0 with a chance at football immortality and a 16-0 season. A whole lot of football fans have said they understand this move -- made to look even smarter after seeing Patriots' leading receiver Wes Welker blow out his knee in the first quarter of Week 17's more or less meaningless game against the Texans -- but personally, in particular as someone who has been actively involved in sports for most of my life, I am squarely in the camp that does not understand the move. Again, Peyton Manning, who has achieved almost every possible individual and team goal in his illustrious career as an NFL quarterback, had his chance at cementing football immortality by becoming the first team to ever complete a 16-0 season without the aid of blatant cheating, and the team had a slight lead against a strong defense in a game where the Jets had not done anything other than a kickoff runback for a touchdown early in the second half. At any time during the third and fourth quarter, Caldwell could probably have reinserted Manning and gotten his team the victory, but the Colts stuck to their game plan and pulled Manning along with many other starters and allowed the team to lose. This, from a team that has repeatedly sat its starters at the end of seasons during Manning's career and has gone on not to win the superbowl, while the one year that the team did win the superbowl was the season that the Colts were forced for scheduling reasons to play its way through all 17 games of the season. And the part that really pushes this decision over the edge for me is that Manning, in addition to being one of the great quarterbacks and incredible field generals in the modern-day NFL, hasn't missed a single start in more than twelve years. Twelve years! So the Colts management opted to pull their starters and turn a lead into a defeat to miss their chance at going 16-0, and in losing its chance to go undefeated for the year they also copied the strategy that has failed to produce a superbowl victory in the end several times in the recent past, and they benched a guy to protect him from injury when he hasn't missed a single game at the toughest position on the field to put together a longevity streak. It just doesn't make sense. And now the Colts, who played their starters in Week 17 only for a couple of short series, also go into the playoffs having turned their record around from 14-0 to 14-2 after two losses at season's end. So we're looking at the Vikings losing 3 of 5 to end the season after starting 10-1, the Saints going from 13-0 to 13-3 to end the year, and the Colts dropping from 14-0 to 14-2. How these separate losses of momentum for the NFL's three hottest teams through early December will affect the teams' playoff chances in January remains to be seen, but in all it really contributes to what has been another crazy, crazy year in the No Fun League.

The last thing I would mention regarding summarizing the 2009 NFL season are some of the incredible comebacks and turnarounds, the biggest surprises on the upside and the biggest disappointments of the season. For starters, you've got the New York Giants and the Denver Broncos, who started off 5-0 and 6-0, respectively, but both ended the season at 8-8 clips and on the outside of the playoff race looking in. Ultimately, although neither squad was all that great of a team in the end IMO, I see the issue with the Giants as being more related to scheduling than anything else. The Giants began the year 5-0 with games against Washington, Dallas, Tampa Bay, Kansas City and Oakland, once that schedule turned around after Week 5, the team faced 9 out of 11 opponents with at least .500 records on the year, losing 7 of those 9 games. Denver, on the other hand, I think more played over their heads in starting off 6-0 on the year, including wins against the playoff-bound Cheatriots, Chargers, Cowboys and Bengals during that streak, but once the Broncos passed their bye week after Week 6, they were a changed team and ended up spiralling down a 2-8 finish to miss the playoffs by a game and really leave their fans shaking their heads.

On the flip side of the equation, I was really impressed most of all with the Tennessee Titans this year, who started off the season 0-6, including bottoming out with an embarrassing 59-0 blowout at the hands of the Cheatriots before also taking their bye week in Week 7, but where the Broncos seemed to have fallen apart during their time away, the Titans made the move of the year in switching quarterbacks from Kerry Collins to Vince Young, and the result was visible immediately as the team went on a 5-game winning tear and finished up 8-2 in its last 10 games to eke its way back to .500 as well by season's end, including victories in that second half against .500+ teams the 49ers, Jaguars, Texans and Cardinals. The Carolina Panthers were another team that really turned things around and pretty much saved their head coach's job in the process in the second part of the 2009 season, starting off 0-3 and sinking to 4-7 before rattling off four wins in their last five games to also end the year at 8-8. So you had the Giants, Broncos, Titans and Panthers all finishing up 2009 with identical 8-8 records, although the teams could not have been moving in more opposite directions in so doing.

Other disappointments or impressive performances in 2009 in the NFL? Of course there's always the Redskins, who seem to spend at least $100 million every offseason on some big signing or signings, and yet who seem unable to generate victories no matter what they try and no matter who is leading the team. The Skins finished 2009 at 4-12, including early-season losses to the Panthers, the Chiefs and the Lions. And speaking of the Lions, that team still royally sucks but at the same time, let's give the team some props for finishing at 2-14, a full infinity percent better than the franchise's win total from 2008. Eric Mangini probably deserves some kudos as well for keeping his team from throwing in the towel and busting out with four straight wins to end the 2009 season and lift his team out of the NFL's cellar and to an almost-respectable 5-11 overall record. The Houston Texans finished 9-7 on the year after coming from behind to defeat the Cheatriots in the final game of the season, the Houston franchise's first-ever winning season, and the Atlanta Falcons rode on Matt Ryan's back to a 9-7 record, the first time in franchise history that the Falcons have posted back-to-back winning seasons. And, speaking of streaks, the two hottest teams in the NFL heading into the playoffs do not include the Vikings, Saints or the Colts -- it's the Chargers, who have won 11 straight in the AFC, and the Eagles in the NFC who won 6 straight games before getting crushed in Dallas in a crucial NFC East matchup to decide who would take the divisional title in 2009. More on that later in the week when I make my picks for the weekend's playoff action.

As far as my regular season picks, I picked five games against the spread in each week of the NFL regular season except for Week 1 and Week 17, and I ended up with a record of 39-34-2. Although anything over .500 means a winning season bet-wise, the way it happened was not pretty, as I ran that record up to 35-20 after Week 12 only to close out 4-14 in my final four weeks of utterly pathetic picks. I mean, I couldn't find a winner no matter what I tried in the final quarter of the NFL season. I saw a game that I thought for sure was mis-priced, and then the team on the other side of my bet would run back a late touchdown and snatch away a victory, or better yet, I even picked the opposite of who I thought would win the games near the end and even then I would push or be straight-out wrong. 39-34 is to tell the truth not much different than my past history of picking games against the spread, so the hot early start to my picks in the 2009 was sadly more likely the aberration than the norm, and the late-season nosedive was probably always destined to come. But I had fun picking the games and writing about them here, as I will continue to do heading into the NFL playoff rounds, and I know that my knowledge of both the NFL and of picking games against the spread grew as a result of the analysis I was regularly doing here at the blog.

Lastly, I wanted to take a quick look at my preseason predictions for the 2009 NFL season to see how they fared against reality.

In the NFC East, I correctly predicted the Eagles to go 11-5, I missed the Giants' win total by 1 with my prediction of 9-7 for the G-Men, and I nabbed the Redskins as well in the range of 4-6 wins. But the Cowboys surprised me big time, in particular with their strong 3-game December win streak to capture the East in going 11-5, as I had them pegged for an 8-8 season under country bumpkin coach Wade Phillips, who also grabbed the divison title away from the Eagles in what definitely came as a surprise to me on the season.

In the NFC North, my predictions were more or less a disaster. I figured the Vikings for 10 wins but they surprised me with 12, while I tapped the Bears and new quarterback Jay Cutler for 10 wins and the division crown in what turned out to be a horrible performance for both Cutler and the Bears on the year. I also figured the Packers to improve, but only to around .500 and to miss the playoffs, both of which were also wrong as the Pack made a strong run and was never really in doubt as a wildcard team behind the surging Vikings this year. But hey, I was spot-on that the Lions would win exactly two games on the year, so that means I basically got this division just about correct, right? Right?

In the NFC South I once again got swayed by the crowd and predicted the Panthers to win 11 or 12 games, although they inexplicably won just 8 despite fielding essentially the same team as the one that won 12 games in 2008. I correctly picked the Falcons to have another solid year behind Matt Ryan, Roddy White and Michael Turner, although injuries to all three of those players in several key games in the second half of the season kept the team limited to 9 wins instead of the 11 I was figuring them for before the season began. I tapped the Bucanneers to win 7 games this year, a far cry from the pathetic 3-13 record they ended with, and I figured the Saints for 8 or 9 wins, also a far cry from the 13-for-13 they put up in running the best offense in football before losing their momentum in the final three games of the year.

Lastly, in the NFC West, I predicted that the 49ers would steal the division with 9 wins vs 8 or 9 for the defending champion Arizona Cardinals. In the end, the Niners simply could not muster enough consistency on either side of the ball when it counted to make a late-season run at the division, and although at 8-8 I was very close with the Niners, the Cardinals came through with an upside surprise at 10 wins to defend their title as NFC West champions and give themselves a chance to defend their NFC Championship from 2008 as well. I also predicted the Rams to improve on 2008's 2-14 record by a couple of games (they actually got worse, finishing at 1-15), and I was one game ahead of the Seahawks' 6-win 2009 season, although at least I was on track that this would be a down year for both of the other teams at the bottom of the NFC West race.

My preseason NFL predictions were not much better in the AFC, unfortunately.

In the AFC East, I again went totally with the pundits in expecting 14 wins from the Cheatriots who actually finished the season at 10-6, though I was correct that they would win the division at the least. I predicted 10 wins from the Dolphins, who made a nice run but eventually succumbed late in the year and finished at 7-9. Although the words I wrote back in September about the New York Jets and their rookies at quarterback and at head coach sound spot on for how this season ended, the Jets were handed two wins that would have almost surely been losses at the end of the year against two of the toughest teams on their schedule to finish out the year 9-7 and with a miraculous playoff berth. And bringing up the rear I correctly had Buffalo in this division, for whom I predicted 5 wins but who actually came up with 6 thanks to again a final-week gimme game against a bunch of no-names as Indy sat everybody who might possibly contribute to a deep playoff run.

The AFC North was yet another division where I allowed the preseason pundits to cloud my judgment and have me predicting a two-team race along with the rest of the so-called experts, as I expected 12 wins from the Ravens and 11 from the Steelers in producing two AFC playoff teams yet again out of this division. Well, I was right about the two playoff teams, but I completey ignored the Bengals, who back then were still the Bungles in my mind and who I tapped for just 4 or 5 wins on the season, but who actually busted out with a 10-6 record and who easily ran away with the division while the Ravens and Steelers had to scramble until their final games to know if they would be in or out of the 2009 NFL postseason. But again I stepped it up at the bottom of the division, predicting the Browns' 5 wins exactly thanks to Mangini's late-season push back into quasi-respectability.

Yet again I went with convention to my detriment in predicting the AFC South, where I expected another 11 wins and a division crown from the Titans, who surprised everyone by starting off 0-6 before recovering strongly on the back of Vince Young to finish at 8-8. Being the genius that I am, I also predicted a down year for the Colts, who I figured would win just 10 games amidst a new head coach, the loss of their top wide receiver and a struggling running game, where obviously I misjudged just how incredible of a player, play-caller and a leader Peyton Manning really is. I was pretty close in guessing 8 wins for both Houston and Jacksonville on the year, although I have to admit that each team played better than I thought they would as this season wore on.

And lastly, there is the AFC West, where I predicted the Chargers would win 11 games and the division (they won 12), mostly due to just how horrible the division would really be, which it was. I figured the Broncos for just five wins (they actually won 8 after a 2-8 swoon to finish the 2009 regular season), the Chiefs for 4 (which was spot-on), and the Raiders for 2 or 3 wins, when they actually (somehow) won 5 games.

So in all, it was a pretty laughable set of predictions for me on the NFL season for 2009, as I was looking for division winners of Philadelphia, Atlanta, Chicago and San Francisco in the NFC, plus wildcards of Minnesota and Carolina. In reality it is Dallas, New Orleans, Minnesota and Arizona winning their respective divisions, while Philadelphia and Green Bay nabbed the wildcards, meaning that I picked exactly one playoff team correctly out of six picks during the preseason in the NFC. So sweet. In the AFC I fared only marginally better, predicting division winners of New England, Tennessee, Baltimore and San Diego, with wildcards of Pittsburgh and Miami, while the actual division winners proved to be New England, Indianapolis, Cincinatti and San Diego. The AFC wildcard teams of the Ravens and the Jets rounded out a better but still uninspired performance with my predictions for the AFC as learned a really important lesson here in my first year of making these predictions -- the pundits don't know shiat, so don't follow them anymore unless I actually believe what they believe. As I mentioned above, the NFL above all other sports leagues in this country has parity built in to its very core, and there are more worst-to-first stories in this league than in the other three major U.S. sports combined I am sure.

Later in the week I will post my predictions for the four playoff games this weekend, including three of which that are rematches of this past weekend's Week 17 matchups, in which all three were blowouts to end the regular season.