Friday, October 08, 2010

MLB, and NFL Week 4 Picks

Wow. The story so far in the early part of the Divisional Series in baseball is twofold. First, can the Twins hold on to a fucking lead one time? Just one time? Christ, as of this writing that is now 8 consecutive losses for the Twins -- who are perennially in the postseason -- in which they have held the lead at some point in the game. Go win a whole game already. Unreal.

But the real biggest story of the playoffs so far has been the two unbelievable performances from big-time pitchers stepping up in the very first appearance in the MLB postseason. First it was Phildelphia Phillies Roy Halladay throwing a no-hitter against the National League's highest-scoring team in the Reds the other day in his first time ever in a playoff game, a feat only equalled one other time in well over a century of baseball history, and making Halladay the first man to ever pitch a regular season and a postseason no-hitter in the same year. And then on Thursday night, those of you who stayed up late to watch were treated to a gem of a game that saw young Tim Lincecum hurl a complete game, two-hit dominating shutout that included 14 strikeouts and some of the most tensely exciting, stressful pitching around as his team held on for a 1-0 victory in Game 1 of that series. How unfortunate that the one run scored in the game was actually the result of a single to knock in a runner from second who had clearly clearly clearly been thrown out stealing second a few pitches earlier. It wasn't close, and the replay makes it just so painfully obvious. The guy stole second, was out by a mile, got called safe, and two pitches later came in on a single that should never have been, and there's your game, 1-0.

Is it me, or is the refereeing in sports -- all sports -- just getting worse and worse and worse every year? I used to think it was just that our technology with respect to replays was getting better and better every year, and thus able to catch more and more mistakes, but really these guys are just missing so many calls, making themselves the story and the deciding factor in these games instead of the people we ultimately are paying millions of dollars a year to see play. It's one of the worst trends in sports, and is it me or is this as bad as it's ever been right now at this exact moment after the last few days of the playoffs and what's gone down in the NFL already this year?

And while I'm asking questions, is it me, or is Tim Lincecum the spitting image of that kid from "Dazed and Confused" who played the main character who was about to go to high school? I'm pretty sure if I go back and check that, that kid's name is gonna be Timmy Lincecum in the credits. No reason to even check really, it's obviously that kid.

Anyways, the baseball is making waves already but that's not really what I'm here to talk about today. Today is Friday and that means I am in here with five more NFL picks, as I seek some direction after a 2-3 week -- in which I straight-up blew a couple of the games in my worst actual weak of the season so far -- that has left me now right back at .500 for the year at 7-7-1, which equals not a break-even but a loss of 7/10 of a unit assuming a 10% vig on each bet. No big whoop but I am here to do better than that. Last week was putrid, let us try to get back on the winning bandwagon with some trends I have noticed that I do not think have adequately been priced in to the lines quite yet.

1. St. Louis Rams +3 at Detroit Lions. Here's one of the trends I am talking about: The Rams are for real. Some people may be starting to realize this, but to be docking a team as bad as the Lions an extra field goal against what I believe is a clearly superior team right now is I think still a mistake. I say better than 50% chance that Sam Bradford -- who is definitely for real -- and Steve Spagnuolo -- who is also definitely for real -- will combine with the stingy Rams' defense -- who by the way is also for real having given up just 13 points per game so far through four games against admittedly bad teams, to put up a good fight and I have decent confidence they will keep this one real close as the Rams continue to get better each and every week.

2. Carolina Panthers +3 vs. Chicago Bears. Something tells me that Jay Cutler is mostly faking these concussion-like symptoms he has been complaining about this week, after taking nine sacks last week in the first half last week at the Giants, and that the linesmakers have not quite taken into account yet the cancerous effect that a guy like Cutler can have in a locker room when his vag starts to cry like it always does. The Panthers still have a great coach, and they're not going to 0-8 at home this season, and the Bears are coming in with Cutler on the bench and Todd Collins starting at quarterback.

Yes, that's right. I just said Todd Collins. I'll take the home team and the points. That one seems like another pretty easy win.

3. Tennessee Titans +7 at Dallas Cowboys. Here I think the line is reacting a bit too much to the Titans' surprising loss last week at the hands of Denver, but a team like this in my mind is going to bounce back much more strongly this week at the Cowboys. No way Jeff Fisher's team is coming out flat again and getting pushed around on the line like the Titans did last week by the Broncos. I'm not sure they will win this game, but I'm looking for the Titans to play sufficiently not like they did last week, and the Cowboys are really a crapshoot anyways right now in terms of how they'll play in any given week, to make this a nice value with the full touchdown on top. This should also be a win.

4. San Francisco 49ers -4 vs. Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles are beatable right now, and there's no way the Niners are going to go 0-8 at home this year so they too are going to win one of these games sooner or later. This seems like the right matchup for that to happen, especially with the Eagles flying all the way across the country for this game and double-especially with the absolute joke of a game plan the team had in place last week against a hapless Redskin squad. Something tells me the 49ers cover late in this one.

5. I'm going to be an idiot and once again pick the Saints as a hefty favorite, and even worse this time on the road. It's New Orleans Saints -7 at Arizona Cardinals. I mean, only an idiot would actually fall for this pick, but I read yesterday that the Cardinals are amazingly benching Derek Anderson now in favor of starting their undrafted rookie no-name from Okeefenokee U. What that team has done with the qb situation in Arizona this year is just comical. Anyways, of course the Saints haven't played well enough to cover a line like this in any of their games this year, let alone on the road across the country like this, but I'm an idiot, have my picks not made that clear enough already? This one is a loss.

Best of luck to me and to all of you who are playing the games. May your fantasy teams experience more luck than your opponents' teams experience.

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6 Comments:

Blogger l.e.s.ter said...

LOL on Tim Lincecum. Wiley Wiggins is the actor's name.

10:20 PM  
Blogger lightning36 said...

I remember long ago thinking that beseball umpires were the best officials in sports. Every replay showed them getting the tough call right. That was a long time ago.

I was snickering about the Dazed and Confused pitcher last night. Are there any other 1970's dudes in baseball?

2:12 AM  
Blogger Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

Wiley Wiggins? Seriously? If that is not the most made-up-to-hide-my-true-identity-as-baseball's-top-young-pitcher name I've ever heard, then I'm not Sammy Farha's cousin.

Btw, it should not be overlooked that Lincecum smokems da ganja as well. Just like "Wiley Wiggins" in that movie.

2:26 AM  
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10:01 AM  
Blogger Schaubs said...

1 for 5?

use the Costanza method dude.

1:18 AM  
Blogger Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

Funny, no dripping pussies were on here last week when I was 4-1 saying that the Costanza method was dead. Hmmmmmmm.

12:51 AM  

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