Friday, September 24, 2010

Week 3 -- NFL Picks

Well, I haven't loaded up the ole' Bodog account yet this year, and based on last week's results it might not be time to start it up yet with real money, but we'll see as last year I did great during the first half in betting all the games I was picking here on a weekly basis. But yeah, last week's picks did not exactly start off with a bang, although strangely I felt like I was for the most part making good picks that just were not coming through for some reason. I mean, I picked Tennessee -6 against the Steelers, and they hold the Steelers to just 7 first downs in one of the worst offensive outputs anywhere of the young NFL season so far, but somehow I managed to pick the game where the Titans turn the ball over seven times and Vince Young the hot young quarterback who almost never loses not only plays like garbage but he gets benched in favor of Kerry Collins. Was I supposed to foresee that happening? I picked the Cheatriots -3 at the Jets, which in retrospect was obviously not a great pick, but shiiiit, it's the people who picked Sanchise and the Jets to beat a great Cheatriots team after the respective Week 1 performances who I really have the questions about. Same exact point about the Saints -6 at the 49ers. You can talk about the trite "road favorites" thing, the "double digit home dog thing" or various other hackneyed trends that of course have proven not to be actual trends in sports betting or everyone would be making money off of them, but at the end of the day it's the people who thought San Fran would come out and take the Superbowl Champions down to the wire who you have to really ask the questions about in my book. And then there was the Redskins, in a game which I got pretty much exactly right before the Skins gave up two late scores and ended up pushing when they gave up a field goal near the end of the overtime period. So while 1-3-1 is obviously not the way I planned or wanted to start the year off, I am not immediately ready to start with the opposite picks (just yet). I've definitely got another couple of tries in me to establish the kind of roll I started off with in 2009, and I think the Week 3 slate is full of juicy games to play. Including the following five picks, in no particular order as always.

1. Kansas City Chiefs +3 vs San Francisco 49ers. This is one of the dumbest lines you ever see out there, so much so that I'm almost concerned it is one of those "too good to be true" lines but just not quite. The 2-0 Chiefs are a 3-point underdog at home in a loud, excited new stadium against the 0-2 49ers. I think the Chiefs should probably be favored to win this game, but with the 3 points on top there is just no way to resist. You can book this one now, it's a win.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers -3 at Tampa Bay Buccanneers. Here's another road favorite that should spook many of the women out there. Yes, Pittsburgh is playing with their 4th-string quarterback in Charlie Batch this week. And yes, they could not move the ball to save their lives in Week 2. But that was against a touch Tennessee defense, and the Bucs should put up much less of a fight defensively on Sunday. Moreover, did I mention the 7 turnovers the incredible Steelers' defense had last week? They must be salivating at the thought of snacking on Josh Freeman and the young Bucs team this weekend. I'll take the Curtain and the lay the points. Book it! 2-0, let's try to keep it going.

3. Philadelphia Eagles -3 at Jacksonville Jaguars. Here's some more easy money out there. Mike Vick is now the starter in Philadelphia, the first time he's had that security in nearly five years heading into a weekend game, and the team is going to visit one of the worst teams in the league so far in this short season. I expect Vick, who is quickly on his way to being truly beloved in Philly (you watch!), should erupt in this game and give Philly at least a field goal victory, and I am confident enough that I am willing to give the points here.

4. Denver Broncos +6 vs Indianapolis Colts. I'm not sure what it is about this game that strikes me as off, but I am definitely not seeing some kind of a Colts blowout here. The Denver defense is fairly stiff, and although the Colts have a way of eliminating that look from their opposing D, I think they can hold Peyton Manning in check just enough such that their amazingly efficient Kyle Orton-led pass offense and fairly balanced running game should keep this one pretty close in the Mile High City.

5. Tennessee Titans +3 at the New York Giants. This is another one of those "too good to be true" lines, but I'm going to take the bait again here and go with Yet Another Road Favorite. The Titans are gonna be pissed and raring to go after last week's shellacking by the Steelers at home, and I'm not quite sure the Giants have it in them to hold off that kind of a stampede between Vince "All He Does Is Win Games" Young and the NFL's best runningback in Chris Johnson. Although 3 points is actually a very sensible line for this game, the chance that the Titans win outright combined with the chance of them losing by 3 points or less definitely seems to create some value on the Tennessee side of the bet at this spread.

So there it is. An easy 5-0 to get right back over .500 here in the early part of the 2010 NFL season. Best of luck to anybody who is playing the games and to whatever team it is that you root for (except if you root for Jacksonville this weekend).

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Blogger Tilt said...

You're mistaken, the titans are not road favorites, but road dogs... I also think the niners line is a very good line and if it was less than 3, I would have pounded them. I still think niners are going to blow them out, just don't like laying points on the road.

8:19 PM  

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