Friday, October 01, 2010

NFL Week 3 -- Picks

Boy, just like that it is Friday again, and time for some more NFL picks. I don't know what it was, but I looked at the page last week and those games just jumped right out at me. I ended up going 4-1, but once again even in my one loss (Denver +6 vs Indy), I was basically spot-on in how I thought that game would go, including that Denver kept it close all the way to the end. It wasn't until late midway through the 4th quarter that Indy caused a turnover and went up by more than a touchdown, but Denver played 'em tough just like I thought they would. I'm not trying to take credit for being "mostly right" when I was really wrong, but I'm just making the same point after Week 3 that I made after I went 1-3-1 in Week 2: I'm feeling pretty on top of the teams in the league this year here in the earlygoing, just like I was last year. 5-4-1 over two weeks, but I am just a ball hitting the ground on a replay here, and an extra inch of a step closer to the sideline there, from being a heck of a lot more in the black already for the young season.

So let's try to keep it going this week, shall we? As always, in no particular order, here are the Week 3 NFL picks:

1. Denver Broncos +7 at Tennessee Titans. I don't know what it is about this game -- you guys know I'm a big Vince Young and Jeff Fisher fan if you've been reading these picks for a while now -- but that line just seems awfully big for a Titans team that doesn't always pour on the points. Denver's defense will be stingy as always, and the Titans focus on ball control with Chris Johnson in the backfield such that they tend to cut down on the number of total offensive drives they have in a game. I think the thing that puts this line over the edge for me is Denver quarterback Kyle Orton, who remains one of the most efficient and most productive quarterbacks in the NFL so far in 2010 despite getting very little pub for it. I'll take the points here and expect a close game, probably won by the Titans late.

2. Baltimore Ravens +1 at Pittsburgh Steelers. A week after starting off with two road favorites (both of which won), I'm right back at you this week with two road dogs, in this case with the Ravens who I not only think but expect will win this game outright. Not saying we're going to get a blowout here -- the Steelers remain probably the single best defense in the NFL with Hair Polamalu in there and healthy, and we all saw what the Ravens defense did to Mark Sanchez -- who otherwise has looked pretty darn good this season -- in Week 1. So this is going to be a low-scoring affair, but in the end I have to give the nod to the Ravens' matchup with Charlie Batch, who has had exactly one NFL start since 2006 and has no idea what he is in for this week in Pittsburgh. The Steelers already made their point, they went 3-0 in the first three games of Ben Roethlisberger's four-game suspension, but this week they are going to lose a tight one to the division-rival Ravens. Easy pick, plus a point just to make it feel even better.

3. Indianapolis Colts -9 at Jacksonville Jaguars. Last week I picked my Eagles to run up the score at a very bad Jacksonville's stadium, and we were treated to a quarterback showcase by Mike Vick en route to a 28-3 shellacking of the home team. Peyton Manning is coming to town this week and the line is only 9 points. Yes, it's a big line. But it's going to win. That's another damn easy pick right there.

4. Philadelphia Eagles -6 vs Washington Redskins. Yeah, I had to pick this one, didn't I? I'm not necessarily ready yet to put money on the Eagles to win this year against McNabb in Washington, but this game in Philly, which will be televised almost entirely around the country I think should be a fairly easy win for the Eagles. Mike Vick is on a high right now, he is playing much better football than his counterpart Donovan McNabb in Washington, and most of all, the Redskins look an awful lot like they just kinda sorta might suck balls again this year. Mike Shanahan or not, the Redskins look like the same team Dan Snyder has stared in the face of for as long as most people can remember at this point, and although it's a little too early in the season to be sure of that just yet, the matchup with the Eagles, in Philadelphia, with McNabb returning to the Linc for the first time as an opposing player, and with the reaction the fans in Philadelphia are starting to have to Vick who is in my book the early leader for NFL MVP, it just bodes I think for a solid win out of the Iggles this weekend.

5. San Diego Chargers -9 vs Arizona Cardinals. Don't ask me why I'm picking a team that's had as much trouble scoring the ball as the Chargers have so far in 2010, but at home Phillip Rivers et al are a much stronger force than on the road, and the Cardinals have looked equally worse on the road than they themselves have at home. Hard to put my finger on it, but something about this game smells like a two-touchdown victory to me with the Chargers somewhere around the mid-30s by the final whistle.

Best of luck to every who's playing the games this week. And while McNabb will surely be cheered when he first appears on the field in Philly, I'll be glued to the tv set on Sunday at 4pm with my Redskin-loving brother in law, laughing while McNabb tosses ball after ball hopelessly into the ground in front of his receivers. Finally, after a decade of suffering, I'll get to guffaw at those throws smacking the turf in Philly instead of grimacing at them.

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Blogger l.e.s.ter said...

It'll be very surreal, McNabb at the Linc and not getting booed.

9:34 PM  
Blogger Bayne_S said...

Isn't it special that because the Raiders don't sell out the only afternoon game I get to watch is Jax v Colts

12:52 AM  
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4:41 AM  

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