NFL Playoffs -- Divisional Round

Another week, and yet again all anybody can talk about in the world of sports is Mr. Timothy Tebow. Man, you just cannot feel good going into a sudden-death, overtime type of situation against that guy, can you? The moment the Steelers lost the overtime coin toss and Denver elected to receive, pretty much everyone in that stadium -- the Steelers and Broncos players included -- knew the Broncs would be winning the game on that drive. Not sure we knew it would happen on the literal first play from scrimmage in overtime, but when you've got Tebow and just need one score to win, its ovah baybeee.

I'll tell you what -- anybody who saw value in the Pittsburgh Steelers this past weekend, giving nine points on the road at an upstart Denver team with something to prove, is out of their minds. Let alone, a Steelers team with a literally limping Ben Roethlisberger, and missing their top runningback, their center, and their leading tackler on defense? Giving nine points. On the road!

That had to have been the most obvious pick I've seen in the NFL playoffs in a few years. And this, from a guy who has had a long-standing rule never to bet against the fix-waiting-to-happen Pittsburgh Steelers. But with all those injuries, going on the road, and giving nine points in a game between two stingy defenses? That story just doesn't make any sense.

Denver's game this weekend at the Cheatriots is a different story, however. Unlike the Steelers, the Cheats are more or less totally healthy right now, and the full roster of key players on offense seem to be firing on all cylinders. New England is also at home this coming week, they have a much better offense than the Steelers even with both teams equally healthy, and Tim Tebow and the Broncos -- who just got beat pretty hard by the Cheatriots a few weeks back -- have that much less to prove this week after the home win against Pittsburgh last weekend. With the line on that game hovering right around two touchdowns, that one is a heck of a lot harder to pick than this past weekend's freest money around, but I'm thinking I would probably hold my knows and go with the Cheatriots as long as the number is under 14. I mean, they'll already know all of Denver's plays ahead of time by the time kickoff comes around next weekend, right?

Elsewhere in the NFL, there wasn't much surprise in the first round playoff games, as all four better seeds won in all four games, three of which (other than the Steelers) were favored by Vegas. The best game this weekend in my mind is the Saints playing at the 49ers, with the Saints installed as an early 5-point favorite on the road, across the country, at a team that was 13-3 in the regular season and which has the league's stingiest points-against defense. As much as I want to go with the home team and take the generous offer of five points, I'm just thinking that the Saints can find a way to eke out a touchdown or so margin of victory in this one.

Elsewhere, it's the Giants getting 8 points at the Packers, another line which intrigues me somewhat. I mean, didn't the Giants just take a late lead at Lambeau and end up losing in the final minutes by 3 points to these same Packers only a month ago thanks to a late Aaron Rodgers comeback drive? This same Giants team that today is clearly playing significantly better than it was a month ago, while the Packers have just as surely come back down to earth a little bit since losing the undefeated season to the Chiefs a couple of weeks later? I was expecting something a little smaller than 8 points, and I am inclined to think that the Giants are the better value on this pick as long as that number remains above a touchdown.

And in the final game of the conference semi-finals, it is the Houston Texans, in their first-ever playoff run as a franchise, traveling to Baltimore to play the Ravens. Houston is getting a lofty 8.5 points from the sharps in Vegas, and even though that is admittedly an awfully big number to give to a seemingly inconsistent team in the Ravens, something tells me that the Ravens will come through nicely at home, where they went 8-0 in the regular season. With Matt Schaub this could easily be an entirely different story, but me thinks that T. J. Yates is probably looking at his worst game as a starting quarterback in the NFL thus far for Houston. Given especially how poorly the Texans have performed against the spread this year, I'll take my chances and go with the Ravens and lay the 8.5 points in this one.

NFL -- Superbowl Predictions

With the Superbowl just two days away, I thought I would weigh in here with my prediction for the game as well as any other thoughts I have. In general, I think there is a decent chance we are looking at the best team in the NFC in the Packers -- who have played a lot better in the postseason than they did during the regular season -- against probably the next best team other than the Patriots in the AFC in the Pittsburgh Steelers. And we are also probably looking at the best quarterback in the NFC in Aaron Rodgers -- potentially second only to Philly's Mike Vick -- against the most clutch guy you're going to find in today's NFL in Big Ben Roethlisberger, who already has two superbowl victories in two appearances in just the last five seasons. This one has all the makings of a great game, with two excellent, well deserving teams bringing big stars to the contest looking to step up in big spots.

In Pittsburgh's favor, you've got the defense. The Packers have had a lot of success running the ball so far in the 2010-2011 post-season, featuring rookie James Starks out of nowhere to help balance what was otherwise a very pass-centered offensive attack in winning their three NFC playoff games. That flat-out will not happen in Dallas on Sunday. The Steelers' run defense is the best in the game today, and nobody but nobody runs the ball on them, least of all some rookie flash in the pan. So the run game will be totally out, which will help the Steelers to focus more squarely on Aaron Rodgers at qb. Although Rodgers has been good at evading the blitz with his feet and then making a play on the run with a very strong arm, the Steelers will likely throw some more unique blitz packages at Rodgers, designed to force him to throw the ball quickly rather than scramble around and make a play. How well Rodgers handles the Steelers' pressure is probably directly related to the Packers' chances of winning the game.

Also in the Steelers' favor is experience. The head coach has been here before, already the youngest Superbowl-winning head coach in NFL history. Many of the star players (James Harrison, Troy Polamalu) have been here and performed big recently. The quarterback has been to the Superbowl already twice before, winning both times on his way to a 10-2 post-season record at this point still young in his football career. As I mentioned, Big Ben is the most clutch of the clutch players in the NFL today, the ultimate guy you want to have the ball in the hands of when you need someone to make a play. He may not necessarily have the strongest arm, and his ball may not be the tightest spiral, but Ben Roth is a guy who avoids the rush as well as any qb in the sport, who escapes the pressure and then can throw on the run in a huge spot as well as anybody. The Packers, meanwhile, have just two defensive players with previous superbowl experience, and their head coach has a reputation for stepping down solidly in big games.

Oh, and any discussion of the Steelers' advantages in a big football game cannot forget perhaps the most influential thing they have in their corner -- the refs.

The argument for Green Bay is a little simpler, and it goes like this. This is probably the most potent passing offense in the NFL this year, and although the Steelers' strength against the run is not debatable, Pittsburgh's secondary has shown itself repeatedly this year to be beatable early and often, much unlike the Steeler teams of the recent past. In a nutshell, the Packers' greatest strength as a team (its passing game) clearly plays right into the Steelers' greatest weakness as a team (its pass defense). In conjunction with this seeming mismatch of Aaron Rodgers vs. the Steeler secondary, the Packers have a solid defense which should perform well against Rashard Mendenhall and the Steelers' pounding run attack. Sure, Big Ben is going to make some big plays, but the Packers should be able to move the ball well through the air on offense, and should be able to hinder to some extent Pittsburgh's preferred mode of offense, the rushing game. Overall, it's a good matchup for the Packers as far as potential Superbowl opponents go, and Aaron Rodgers has got to be hungrier than Big Ben, with Ben already having two trophies on his mantle from the past few years.

In all, the line on the game is Green Bay -2.5. I understand why the Pack is favored given the way they have played this post-season and the way that NFL fans seems to have glommed on to this team almost from the preseason back in the summer of 2010, but just with increasing fervor over the last four or five weeks of the season. But I just can't get over the fact that this line is a little bit over-adjusted for these factors. The overall feeling I am left with is that the "true" line on this game would be more like a pick'em, but that the powers that be in Vegas know they need to take a few points away from the Packers here or else 90% of the action will come down on Green Bay's side. But this line not moving conclusively from the 2.5 it opened at up to even 3 points after two weeks in play tells me pretty much all I need to know here -- the big-time bettors who know their stuff think this line is too much in favor of Green Bay already. You've got the more experienced team, the Superbowl-winning head coach, the best clutch guy in the game, Troy Polamalu and James Harrison on defense, and the refs who repeatedly dictate that you never, ever, ever bet against the Pittsburgh Steelers (see, scarring it into the underside of my right arm is already working out for me!), and you're getting nearly a field goal to boot. The value here is clearly on Pittsburgh +2.5, and that's my pick for the game.

For shizz and giggles, the over/under on this game is 45 points in Las Vegas. Let's take the under, but just by a hair. I'm thinking more like a 21-19 game than a 26-24 game for this Superbowl.

In terms of some of the more interesting prop bets I see available on Bodog.com for this year's Superbowl:

1. How Many Times will FOX mention "Brett Favre" on TV during the Game?
Over 2.5: -160
Under 2.5: -120

This is an easy Over to me. I'm sure they won't go nuts talking about Favre all the time, but how does Favre not get mentioned three times in a Superbowl game with the Green Bay Packers in it, in the same year he just "retired"? Especially if the Packers are winning near the end, I figure Favre is good for at least one mention early and one during the game at some point for sure. Anything at the end should be gravy on this bet.

2. How many times will FOX mention "lockout" on TV during the Game? Over 1.5 (-110), Under 1.5 (-120)

This has to be an Under here I think. FOX might refer to the potential for a work stoppage, but the odds of them using the word "lockout" more than once? I would say very low, most likely in accordance with specific written instructions from the NFL to that effect.

3. What side of the ball will the players that perform the Gatorade shower be from?? Offense (+150) Defense (-200)

I'm seeing this game ending with Big Ben kneeling down a couple of times to secure a close victory. And if not that, then I see it ending with Aaron Rodgers doing the exact same thing. And that means that, with the offense on the field, the defense will be the ones to do the dousing. Go with Defense, even for the 1:2 odds.

4. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers (Over 22½ completions)

Take the over, take the over! The Pack will not be able to run the ball much, and there is not even much illusion here that they might be able to. Rodgers isn't going to get to 30 completions, but 23 seems like a realistically likely outcome here.

5. Total rushing yards for Steelers running back Rashard Mendenhall (Over 74½)

Take the over, take the over! Just like I expect Aaron Rodgers to throw the ball all day long, I expect the Steelers to keep trying to pound it with the run. Mendenhall is the kind of back who can get a lot of carries and keep running strong, and he put up 27 rushes for 121 yards against the Jets last week. I don't expect Rashard to equal that figure this week against the Packers, but 75 yards on the ground should happen for Pittsburgh's featured back in this game.

6. LeBron James 1st Half Points vs. LA Clippers: -115
Green Bay Packers 1st Half Points: -115

Here I like LeBron. James has been on fire lately, and I would be surprised if the Packers score 14 points in the first half on Sunday.

For those of you whose teams are still in it, or if you're taking a big position on any the game, best of luck!

NFL Week 3 -- Picks

Boy, just like that it is Friday again, and time for some more NFL picks. I don't know what it was, but I looked at the page last week and those games just jumped right out at me. I ended up going 4-1, but once again even in my one loss (Denver +6 vs Indy), I was basically spot-on in how I thought that game would go, including that Denver kept it close all the way to the end. It wasn't until late midway through the 4th quarter that Indy caused a turnover and went up by more than a touchdown, but Denver played 'em tough just like I thought they would. I'm not trying to take credit for being "mostly right" when I was really wrong, but I'm just making the same point after Week 3 that I made after I went 1-3-1 in Week 2: I'm feeling pretty on top of the teams in the league this year here in the earlygoing, just like I was last year. 5-4-1 over two weeks, but I am just a ball hitting the ground on a replay here, and an extra inch of a step closer to the sideline there, from being a heck of a lot more in the black already for the young season.

So let's try to keep it going this week, shall we? As always, in no particular order, here are the Week 3 NFL picks:

1. Denver Broncos +7 at Tennessee Titans. I don't know what it is about this game -- you guys know I'm a big Vince Young and Jeff Fisher fan if you've been reading these picks for a while now -- but that line just seems awfully big for a Titans team that doesn't always pour on the points. Denver's defense will be stingy as always, and the Titans focus on ball control with Chris Johnson in the backfield such that they tend to cut down on the number of total offensive drives they have in a game. I think the thing that puts this line over the edge for me is Denver quarterback Kyle Orton, who remains one of the most efficient and most productive quarterbacks in the NFL so far in 2010 despite getting very little pub for it. I'll take the points here and expect a close game, probably won by the Titans late.

2. Baltimore Ravens +1 at Pittsburgh Steelers. A week after starting off with two road favorites (both of which won), I'm right back at you this week with two road dogs, in this case with the Ravens who I not only think but expect will win this game outright. Not saying we're going to get a blowout here -- the Steelers remain probably the single best defense in the NFL with Hair Polamalu in there and healthy, and we all saw what the Ravens defense did to Mark Sanchez -- who otherwise has looked pretty darn good this season -- in Week 1. So this is going to be a low-scoring affair, but in the end I have to give the nod to the Ravens' matchup with Charlie Batch, who has had exactly one NFL start since 2006 and has no idea what he is in for this week in Pittsburgh. The Steelers already made their point, they went 3-0 in the first three games of Ben Roethlisberger's four-game suspension, but this week they are going to lose a tight one to the division-rival Ravens. Easy pick, plus a point just to make it feel even better.

3. Indianapolis Colts -9 at Jacksonville Jaguars. Last week I picked my Eagles to run up the score at a very bad Jacksonville's stadium, and we were treated to a quarterback showcase by Mike Vick en route to a 28-3 shellacking of the home team. Peyton Manning is coming to town this week and the line is only 9 points. Yes, it's a big line. But it's going to win. That's another damn easy pick right there.

4. Philadelphia Eagles -6 vs Washington Redskins. Yeah, I had to pick this one, didn't I? I'm not necessarily ready yet to put money on the Eagles to win this year against McNabb in Washington, but this game in Philly, which will be televised almost entirely around the country I think should be a fairly easy win for the Eagles. Mike Vick is on a high right now, he is playing much better football than his counterpart Donovan McNabb in Washington, and most of all, the Redskins look an awful lot like they just kinda sorta might suck balls again this year. Mike Shanahan or not, the Redskins look like the same team Dan Snyder has stared in the face of for as long as most people can remember at this point, and although it's a little too early in the season to be sure of that just yet, the matchup with the Eagles, in Philadelphia, with McNabb returning to the Linc for the first time as an opposing player, and with the reaction the fans in Philadelphia are starting to have to Vick who is in my book the early leader for NFL MVP, it just bodes I think for a solid win out of the Iggles this weekend.

5. San Diego Chargers -9 vs Arizona Cardinals. Don't ask me why I'm picking a team that's had as much trouble scoring the ball as the Chargers have so far in 2010, but at home Phillip Rivers et al are a much stronger force than on the road, and the Cardinals have looked equally worse on the road than they themselves have at home. Hard to put my finger on it, but something about this game smells like a two-touchdown victory to me with the Chargers somewhere around the mid-30s by the final whistle.

Best of luck to every who's playing the games this week. And while McNabb will surely be cheered when he first appears on the field in Philly, I'll be glued to the tv set on Sunday at 4pm with my Redskin-loving brother in law, laughing while McNabb tosses ball after ball hopelessly into the ground in front of his receivers. Finally, after a decade of suffering, I'll get to guffaw at those throws smacking the turf in Philly instead of grimacing at them.

What a Superbowl

Wow. What a superbowl that was, huh? It's very fitting to me to end the 2008-2009 NFL season with such a kickass awesome game, because frankly I thought this was one of the most fun seasons in recent memory as far as the NFL goes. In the end, the team that I believed was the best team in the NFL since the moment Plax Burress's illegal handgun went off while still in his pants pocket and emptied its bullet deep into Plax's thigh managed to pull it out, but not after making it look really bleak with just a few minutes left.

A few general Superbowl observations:

1. Larry Fitzgerald. Wow. What can you say. People can say whatever they want, but until this postseason, Fitz was probably considered the second best receiver on his own team. Now all of a sudden everyone acts like they've been saying he's the best in the game for the past few seasons. But what a postseason this guy had, utterly shattering the record for receiving yards in a postseason -- previously held by Jerry Rice -- even before the Superbowl began, and Fitz came to play in this game as well. His touchdown run right up the middle of the field late in the 4th quarter was pretty effing awesome. It will be interesting to see starting next year if Fitz is really able to take on the "lead" wide receiver role with Anquan Boldin on the opposite side all the time. I am truly bummed to see Fitz have to lose this game after making that awesome touchdown catch and run with so little time left in the biggest game of his career.

2. Kurt Warner. Talk about truly bummed to see him lose. I'd like to see somebody try to find another example of a quarterback having a day like Warner did in the Superbowl and still somehow not win. 31-43, 377 yards, 3 touchdowns and no interception, and he doesn't win? Warner must still have woken up this morning wondering "what the hell?" I'm gonna say it right here for the record -- anyone who doesn't think Kurt Warner is NFL Hall of Fame material is simply not paying attention. Did you see the stat last night that Warner now holds all three of the top statistical performances in Superbowl history? That right there is sick. Combine with the fact that he led this franchise to its first Superbowl and came this close to winning it, doing everything he possibly could to make it happen, after the year he had here, plus all the stats he ran up and incredible teams he led back in the days of the Greatest Show on Turf, and in my book Warner is an absolute, raging lock to make the HOF. And despite the silly religious stuff with thanking Jesus after he wins games and stuff, Warner is truly a good and likable guy, someone I find it easy to rally around. Oh and btw, as Goat pointed out to me in the girly during the game, Kurt Warner really does look younger than he has in years. Botox anyone?

3. The Cardinals. What a friggin bummer. The NFL's career whipping boys were sooo close to taking this thing down, I'm sure they're still trying to figure out how they gave up that game-ending touchdown drive so quickly, and how the eff Santonio Holmes managed to get both toes down on his game-winning catch. I've talked to a lot of people about this, and it's hard to find almost anyone who wasn't rooting for the Cardinals to pull this one out. It sucks either team has to lose after a game like Sunday night's, but this one especially rots given how hapless the Cardinals franchise has been over the years, how incredibly close they came, and again given what truly decent guys Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald seem to be. Remember, this week saw Fitz publicly offer to restructure his own contract if it would give the Cardinals more money to pay to keep fellow wideout Anquan Boldin in town. That's not something you see every day in the NFL, that's for sure.

4. Ben Roethlisberger. Ben Roethlisberger is pretty much The Man when it comes right down to it. Big Ben now has two Superbowl wins in what, five seasons? I know in the first one he did not play particularly well at all, but even in that one a few years ago, his main wide receiver won the MVP and a Superbowl win is a Superbowl win, right? And he played awesome on Sunday night in leading his team to victory, as he did all through this season really, including putting the team on his back through that incredible last-minute scoring drive that saw the team march about 80 yards in just about two minutes of game time. Just looking at the throw to Holmes that resulted in the game-winning touchdown catch, if you see the replay you can see that Big Ben literally put that ball where only his receiver (or no one) could catch it, just over the outstretched hands of the jumping Arizona corner, and just barely close enough to his man that Holmes could catch the ball and still remain in-bounds. As usual, Roethlisberger had a ton of big plays in the clutch on Sunday, and he has really cemented himself as the best young quarterback in this league as far as I'm concerned. Move over, Tom Brady, there's a new young qb stud in town and his name is Big Ben.

5. Santonio Holmes. Four catches on that final drive, and 9 catches overall in the game for over 130 yards. And what a fucking catch. 'Nuff said.

6. The Steelers. It is so rare these days to see a team that you feel is winning the championship the right way, but I just really get that feeling about the Steelers. Sure, I would have loved to have seen Arizona erase its demons and nab their first Superbowl championship, but personally I find it very difficult not to like this Steelers team. From the ownership all the way down to the players, these are a stand-up bunch of guys, and I am glad it's them who is the first franchise to six victories, as opposed to the 49ers who apparently cheated the salary cap all the way through their 80s and 90s victories, or the revolting Cowboys with their parade of "big money" asshat players and nimrod coaches. The Rooney family which owns the team has been the big proponent of insisting on interviewing minority candidates for head coaching vacancies in the league, and they put their money where their mouth is a few years ago in hiring 32-year-old Mike Tomlin to lead the team after Bill Cowher's departure left the team looking for just its third head coach in forty years. Now Tomlin becomes the youngest head coach to ever win a Superobowl, surpassing the record recently set by former Eagles' O-coordinator Jon Gruden, and the Rooneys, Tomlin, Roethlisberger and that vaunted Steelers defense are all sitting pretty today after capturing the team's sixth Superbowl championship in just 43 years of the leagues being merged in the NFL. Six wins in 43 seasons in a league that is now up to what, 30 teams? Sickness.