NFL Playoffs -- Divisional Round

Another week, and yet again all anybody can talk about in the world of sports is Mr. Timothy Tebow. Man, you just cannot feel good going into a sudden-death, overtime type of situation against that guy, can you? The moment the Steelers lost the overtime coin toss and Denver elected to receive, pretty much everyone in that stadium -- the Steelers and Broncos players included -- knew the Broncs would be winning the game on that drive. Not sure we knew it would happen on the literal first play from scrimmage in overtime, but when you've got Tebow and just need one score to win, its ovah baybeee.

I'll tell you what -- anybody who saw value in the Pittsburgh Steelers this past weekend, giving nine points on the road at an upstart Denver team with something to prove, is out of their minds. Let alone, a Steelers team with a literally limping Ben Roethlisberger, and missing their top runningback, their center, and their leading tackler on defense? Giving nine points. On the road!

That had to have been the most obvious pick I've seen in the NFL playoffs in a few years. And this, from a guy who has had a long-standing rule never to bet against the fix-waiting-to-happen Pittsburgh Steelers. But with all those injuries, going on the road, and giving nine points in a game between two stingy defenses? That story just doesn't make any sense.

Denver's game this weekend at the Cheatriots is a different story, however. Unlike the Steelers, the Cheats are more or less totally healthy right now, and the full roster of key players on offense seem to be firing on all cylinders. New England is also at home this coming week, they have a much better offense than the Steelers even with both teams equally healthy, and Tim Tebow and the Broncos -- who just got beat pretty hard by the Cheatriots a few weeks back -- have that much less to prove this week after the home win against Pittsburgh last weekend. With the line on that game hovering right around two touchdowns, that one is a heck of a lot harder to pick than this past weekend's freest money around, but I'm thinking I would probably hold my knows and go with the Cheatriots as long as the number is under 14. I mean, they'll already know all of Denver's plays ahead of time by the time kickoff comes around next weekend, right?

Elsewhere in the NFL, there wasn't much surprise in the first round playoff games, as all four better seeds won in all four games, three of which (other than the Steelers) were favored by Vegas. The best game this weekend in my mind is the Saints playing at the 49ers, with the Saints installed as an early 5-point favorite on the road, across the country, at a team that was 13-3 in the regular season and which has the league's stingiest points-against defense. As much as I want to go with the home team and take the generous offer of five points, I'm just thinking that the Saints can find a way to eke out a touchdown or so margin of victory in this one.

Elsewhere, it's the Giants getting 8 points at the Packers, another line which intrigues me somewhat. I mean, didn't the Giants just take a late lead at Lambeau and end up losing in the final minutes by 3 points to these same Packers only a month ago thanks to a late Aaron Rodgers comeback drive? This same Giants team that today is clearly playing significantly better than it was a month ago, while the Packers have just as surely come back down to earth a little bit since losing the undefeated season to the Chiefs a couple of weeks later? I was expecting something a little smaller than 8 points, and I am inclined to think that the Giants are the better value on this pick as long as that number remains above a touchdown.

And in the final game of the conference semi-finals, it is the Houston Texans, in their first-ever playoff run as a franchise, traveling to Baltimore to play the Ravens. Houston is getting a lofty 8.5 points from the sharps in Vegas, and even though that is admittedly an awfully big number to give to a seemingly inconsistent team in the Ravens, something tells me that the Ravens will come through nicely at home, where they went 8-0 in the regular season. With Matt Schaub this could easily be an entirely different story, but me thinks that T. J. Yates is probably looking at his worst game as a starting quarterback in the NFL thus far for Houston. Given especially how poorly the Texans have performed against the spread this year, I'll take my chances and go with the Ravens and lay the 8.5 points in this one.

The Buddy and the BBT -- Again

Wow is it ever fun playing in the BBT when you are lucky enough to nab a ToC seat early! In exchange for all the incredible free money and prizes available from Full Tilt via the BBT5 tournament series, we definitely have our nerves ratcheted up quite a bit for each of these weekly private tournaments, and it's just awesome not to really care if I bust on a given hand or not because I know I've already done what needs to be done to play for the big money in the end. Of course, my own competitive spirit still basically requires me to try hard to win and to be disappointed when I bust, but come on these are not only no-limit poker tournaments, but ones with 10-minute blind levels, and with only a $10 buyin open to anybody with internet access. It just takes a bunch of run-good to win one of these things, there is no doubt about it. Like I said earlier this week, the trick I think is just to come out for these 24 tournaments and try to play well in all of them, in the hopes that the one or two times the math runs your way, you can be in position to grab the seat.

I mentioned this as well earlier in the week, but I will say it again after playing in the Buddy last night -- a lot of people out there whose game I have come to know and understand very well are simply not playing their game so far through several BBT5 events. Guys I have sat and watched play a generally very tight style of poker for years -- the style they still play in that $8 token sng they run in during the Buddy each week -- seem to be repeatedly busting out early, stacking off for many many big blinds with just top pair mediocre kicker against obvious strength, etc. People who have proven over time in the private blogger tournaments as well as in prior BBT series that they have the patience to stick around and wait for the good spots are instead pushing way too hard with marginal hands and taking huge hits early.

I was thinking maybe it's due to the BBT5 being far shorter than our previous tournament series, and as a result people quite rightly feel the pressure to get their win as quickly as possible or something, but obviously pushing marginal hands too hard against a crowd like this -- especially in the Buddy of all the BBT5 tournaments -- is not the way to do it. I know all about what I speak of here because as my longtime readers know, I have typically started off these BBT tournament series very slow, often playing too aggressively early, even for weeks on end before finally finding my groove. Let this post be a lesson to all of you out there who are struggling with that same feeling now -- and I've played all the events, I've seen it everywhere -- don't take 4 or 5 weeks figuring out that you have to play a tight-aggressive game and that you have to respect the fact that bloggers will call with many hands that might not warrant a call outside of a tournament like the Buddy. In the BBT5, 4 or 5 weeks of goofing is too long to give yourself a chance. Like I said above, everyone is tied to the same rule ultimately -- you have to play every single tournament smart and just hope you are around for the one or two times in the entire series when fortune will smile on you enough to give you a chance to win.

And speaking of bloggers calling, I value bet like a monster on Wednesday night and played my way right into a tournament-leading stack for most of the second hour of the Buddy on the night. I'm not sure I've ever consistently made and succeeded in getting paid with such thin value bets, which of course all comes down to making the right reads on your opponents' hands. Multiple times I had guys call me down at the river for 70% of the pot with just one pip lower than my kicker. I got 2nd pair top kicker to call down my top pair crap kicker on a couple of occasions, and I even got a few players to call at the river when I had turned or rivered monsters like when I turned a set (muhahahahahah!) in the second hour or when I rivered an inside straight with pocket 8s in the first. I didn't win any big pots with big pairs or AK on the night, but I amassed over 13k in chips at one point during Hour 2 just by winning a lot of hands without showdowns, and getting people to call me at the river with slightly worse hands than my own, even when nowhere near the nuts. It was awesome, and I was just beginning to think I might be able to crack out another final table run.

Then late in Hour 2 I got moved to one of the sickest, silliest tables I've ever sat at in a blonkament, one featuring myself, Chad, Lucko and LJ all within the span of five or six seats at the table. As we all had pretty large stacks in front of us, it was only a matter of time before somebody was gonna tussle. I went first when my read failed me on Lucko, as I open-raised from the button with pocket 4s, Lucko quickly reraised me from the big blind, and my read told me he acted too quick to really want action, so I pushed for another 4x his raise or so. He called quickly, at which point I was actually happy to see he had AK (as opposed to any pair) when we flipped our cards, but although I flopped good he hit a King on the turn and I quickly went from a nice stack with around half the field left to out of the tournament, and Lucko's stack swelled to frightening proportions.

Right before deciding to push in on the preflop reraise there, I specifically thought to myself "I should fold here. I did fold in this spot several times the other day when I won. If I did not have my ToC seat wrapped up already I would fold here." So I called, went with the aggressive play, and it turned out to be one that was the correct move given Lucko's holding, but I can't complain about the result when I knowingly, willingly took on that race and knew it was a more volatile move than necessary in that spot and still with a nice chip stack behind. Basically, with a ToC seat already in my back pocket, I took a gamble here on a 50-50 shot (52-48 in my favor, to be exact) that if I won, I would have a massive stack and a very good chance of smashing through this field, but that if I lost, my big stack would be gone and I would be done. Frankly, it's a bad move in a tournament like this as I can surely wait for a better spot than with the 4s where any hand Lucko calls with (and I figured he would call with overs) is basically racing against me, but I chose to do it and I almost held on for the big win. Instead I was out and as I mentioned, the specter of Big Stack Lucko really started to emerge.

Lucko's stack got even stoopider when Chad ended up reraising a preflop raiser and a caller with Chad's hammer, and ended up pushing that into both pocket Jacks and Lucko's pocket Queens, all allin preflop. Chad could not hold up despite flopping five outs to win, and before anyone knew it, Lucko had 50k in chips -- way too early in the Buddy for that kind of a stack -- when second place had just over 12k. And if you're like me, you were ready to call it for Lucko right then and there, with still like 30 runners left. Nobody plays that big stack in a blonkament like Lucko does, that has been demonstrated time and time again.

Although I was gone for most of the next hour, I did manage to log in to the final table and see that Lucko was gone and that Poker Meister (I think that's who KeepFloppin is or whateverhisnameis) had amassed the prohibitively large stack near the beginning, and in the end it looks like he's the guy who took it down and nabbed the last BBT5 ToC seat for this week. That has got to be the most significant blogger tournament win Meister has ever had, so congratulations to him for apparently playing very well and pretty much dominating the entire final table from beginning to end.

Six of the 24 seats in the BBT5 Tournament of Champions have now been awarded. This coming Sunday night, two more lucky run-gooders will claim their spot at the table in the Invitational freeroll. I'll be there, once again with my aggression hat on, waiting to make you call me light on the river by picking just the right amount that you simply cannot resist.

Hand Reading -- Concluded

Good comments to yesterday's post regarding what my opponent was holding, and how best to respond. First, to recap, with my thoughts after each step of the way:

So we're very early in the nightly 40k guaranteed tournament at 7pm ET on full tilt, and I was dealt KK in the cutoff. The action folded to me preflop, and I put in my standard 3x raise to 90. Both the small blind and the big blind called.

So far, it's hard to put either guy on much, as many people will defend their blinds against a late position steal with a very wide range when the blinds are still small. I'm thinking, probably a top-60% hand for both of them or better.

The flop came down Q92 with two spades (I had the King of spades). The small blind checked, and the big blind bet out 90 into a 270-chip pot.

Here the big blind is leading out into me instead of allowing me to bet first since I was the preflop aggressor. This is highly likely to be a top-pair-middle-kicker sort of hand. There is almost no way it's strong, in that if he flops a set here or something he clearly check-raises instead of donk betting. And I find it highly unlikely that he bets out with a 9 or a deuce here, since I raised preflop. Possible, but unlikely in my book. Middling Queens are the best fit for this unusual and I think quite telling out-of-position lead bet so early in an mtt so far.

I called the 90, hoping to get in a raise on a later, bigger street with my overpair and really only fearing the three non-spade Aces on the turn, and the small blind called as well, putting 540 chips into the pot:



The turn brought the 9 of spades, now putting a 3-flush on the board in addition to a pair of 9s, the small blind once again checked, and the big blind once again led out, time for 240 chips into the 540-chip pot.

Here it becomes impossible in my book that this player has any type of strong hand. With two players calling his donk bet on the flop, he almost has to put one of us on some kind of a draw, and with the third spade now hitting the board, any type of solid hand or even reasonably solid hand has to bet strong here, not less than half the pot like he did. Even TPTK or the trip 9s like some commenters suggested is going to bet bigtime here with now three spades on the board, fearing a fourth spade on the river and wanting to chase any one-spade flush draws off right here and now. Think about it -- if you have AQ here, wouldn't you bet more than 240 into the 540-chip pot in this spot (if not, you stink)? That's my read. He is leading small once again, taking the lead for the second street in a row against a preflop aggressor, even in the face of a scary board. This guy is surely not strong, and yet he's not weak either to be leading out twice against a preflop raiser. What he has is top pair. That's basically it. Possibly Ace of spades and middle pair or something, but far more likely in my mind that this is top pair middle kicker. That's the read here.

I once again just smooth called, hoping to draw in the small blind when I held an overpair in addition to the King-high flush draw with just one card to come, but unfortunately the small blind folded:



Now the river brought a raggy 6 of diamonds, and, with 1260 chips in the pot, my opponent led out for 420 chips:



OK that ices it for me. This is top pair, and to lead out three times in a row against a preflop raiser, it's not a shitty kicker. So let's start from the highest kickers and move our way down his likely range. It's not AQ, because I'm operating on the assumption that that particular hand would have raised TPTK on the turn when the third spade hit the board, and I'm not going to put him on KQ because I hold two Kings myself so that is unlikely. QQ would have raised preflop. QJ and QT are solid possibilities, if this guy thought I was stealing preflop, especially if he holds a spade in there so that the third spade on the turn would not have scared him too too much into betting more than he did. And is he betting out this much with Q9, Q8 or a lower Queen? I just don't think so. Maybe on the flop, sure (although I'm not a fan of the donk bet, almost ever. If I donk bet you, chances are you are about to get played with), and maybe even on the turn if he thought I was floating him on the flop. But leading out, and so small, once again on the river? In my mind, this isn't Q8 or Q7, which would have to fear AQ, KQ, QJ or QT in addition to overpairs and other two-pair-or-better hands. It is QJ, or possibly QT. Outside chance of Q9 for two pairs and the turned boat, but that is highly unlikely as a Queen and two 9s are already on the board as it is. That third lead bet, and yet all of them small, ices it for me like I said above. This guy is on QJ or QT.



Now, this is where my particular style of play comes in. In this particular case, I was pretty damn sure about my read here. Like, in my head I knew his cards. So while most of the commenters made the absolutely valid point that my hand could be beat by a lot of possible hands and that thus it makes the most sense to just call here, I just don't play that way, not when I have what I view as a dead-on read like this. Sometimes I am wrong of course, but I picked this hand in particular from the other night because I noted it right away as one where I just felt like I had an absolute bead on my opponent's play. This was QJ or maybe QT, and I was ahead. So how best to play it, if you're me?

The dreaded minraise. Why not? If I push in on this guy, surely he's gonna fold his top pair middling kicker. If I even pot-raise him, we're all in and he will I think fold. This is a $75 buyin event, and we're not even 20 minutes in at this point. But I don't want to just call, not when I feel 98% sure that I'm ahead but that my opponent believes I was stealing preflop and that he's been ahead on every street, and where I have purposely played it slow enough here to lead him to continue believing that. If I'm him, with the preflop raise and now two calls, I'm probably putting me on a middle pair, maybe 8s or Tens, or maybe AK or AJ with a spade in there, all of which he is ahead of. If I make a bet that changes his read of my hand, he might fold it. But for another 420 chips into what is now over a 2500-chip pot, there's no way he'll lay down top pair to me. So there it is, one of the few times you'll ever see me min-raise a guy:



He did in fact call my minraise, and I took down the pot:



And there it is:



This is the way I play, and of course again I picked this specific hand because I laid a dead read on him and was right, and I thought it was interesting to look at how much information he really did give from his preflop call to leading out, and doing so small, on all three streets, given the particular cards on the board along the way. Those of you who play with me often or who have railed me in mtts or sngs will know that sometimes I make a read and am fooled by someone, often resulting in my elimination from tournaments. But this is the way I play the game. I don't usually get such a strong and confident feeling about what a guy is holding, but when I do, It's not my style to just make the weak call just in case I'm wrong. If I think there is value to be had, I'm going to go and get it, and in this case that extra 420 chips was to me well worth what I perceived to be a miniscule risk that I was beaten.

I have so many screenshots saved up, I could run these "What's He Got" pieces for the next 25 years and never run out. If it was fun I'm sure I could try to do more of these.