Monday, July 30, 2007

MATH Pimp, and Fun With Cash Hands

OOOooh boy, another glorious Monday. Hah. Seriously though, it has been so long since I had a day like Sunday at the cash tables. Far too long. Sunday night I won more than three buyins at 2-4 nl, which is my biggest one-day score in over two months and my first really solid set of multiple sessions in probably half that time. After a ho-hum weekend at the full tilt cash tables -- and a failed attempt for a quickie trip to the Borgata for some live poker action on Saturday night -- I was a monster on Sunday. I kept the pots small when I was weak, I got people to call big bets when I was big, and I hit some effing cards in key spots. I won about a full buyin when I made a surprisingly nut flush on the river with my Q♠. I won another when I managed to flop top two and turn a boat. I got people to call my river value bets on five or six occasions over a a few tables over a few hours.

And the best part about my cash game play last night? I didn't make a single major mistake, which again is the first night I can honestly say that in quite some time. I've had plenty of up nights recently, but not totally major mistake-free ones. Over probably a thousand hands of poker on the session overall, I never lost a pot worth more than about a quarter-buyin or so. I won several that big, but I never lost one. If that ain't the key to playing profitable poker, I don't know what is. Win lots of big pots but only lose small ones. Wtg me.

Btw the actual best part about my play on Sunday was the 4-for-4 I went with pocket Aces. This brings my total since I started using pokertracker to 41 wins in 41 times dealt pocket Aces. Average pot size is still over $85 won per time dealt the best starting hand in holdem. And keep in mind, this is over 13,500 hands, meaning that I should have been dealt pocket Aces my 1/221 of the time, representing 61 times I should have been dealt pocket Aces over this stretch. I have gotten them 41 times. I guess my other twenty went straight over to this guy. Probably all of them in the first hour of the MATH or some blonkament like that.

Poker gods come smite me now.

Speaking of smiting poker gods, don't forget tonight is the latest Mondays at the Hoy tournament on full tilt!

10pm ET tonight, under the "Tournaments" tab, then under the "Private" tab. Password as always is "hammer". Please be there to call my preflop allin with J9s so that more people can leave me comments suggesting that I would ever call an allin with J9s and then defend it on the blog. Ahhh, guys on losing streaks using my blog to work out their frustrations. You gotta love the freedom of the blogiverse.

Before I forget, I understand that Neteller is officially accepting withdrawal requests again for those of us with money still trapped there after a prolonged period of inaccessibility. My suggestions are (1) get in there as quickly as possible and make your withdrawl requests, and (2) I'm still not expecting to ever see that money again until I actually have it in my hands.

Also, a quick question I wanted to poll the readers on. So we're about to reschedule the full tilt freeroll again after last week's server issues froze the event with 51 players left out of 56 runners about 45 minutes in. Now we're going to rerun the thing one day soon. What is everyone's view about including or excluding the 5 people who had busted out in the rerun of the freeroll on full tilt? Do we start it up with all 56 players again and just take a no harm no foul approach? Or do we rerun it with just the 51 players starting fresh who were still alive at the time of the outage last week? Leave your thoughts in the comments if you feel strongly one way or the other.

Oh yeah, it's been a full week and now two weekends since the final installment of the Harry Potter series came out, so I assume most of the hardcore among you have already finished the story by now, making it ok for me to at least mention here. I am determined not to give away any spoilers of any real value here, but if you can't take the possibility then you can skip ahead to the next paragraph. Anyways, all I will say here is this: I really enjoyed the book. I loved it even, just like I've loved all of them. This shit is like Lays potatio chips, really, or kind of like when you're flipping channels and suddenly find that Shawshank Redemption is running on USA again -- once you pick it up I challenge anyone to just put it down. I could not stop reading the book, just like with all the Harry Potter books, and I really give credit to J.K. Rowling for creating this really amazing and interesting story out of her own head like she did. FWIW, I did think the final climax of the book, the final confrontation, was a bit anti-climactic, but then that is probably more or less always the case whenever you end a story as epic as this tale has been. But the shit is great, there is just no two ways about it. If you're interested, don't believe any of the shit you read out there on the Internets -- I myself heard lots of negative stuff from the initial reviewers on the first day or two. The book was incredible, just as good as all the others, and it made for a great ending to truly one of the most awesome stories of my lifetime. I've spent what, the better part of 15 years of my life reading these books, and talk about time well spent. Rowling is my MVP of the summer as far as I'm concerned.

Anyways, back to some poker, here was a fun hand which I think is a good exercise in hand reading skills. We're playing 6-max holdem cash with 2-4 blinds and a $400 max buyin on full tilt. I've got KJo on the button and the action folds around to me preflop. I put in the standard pot-sized semi-steal-raise to $14, and just the big blind calls my bet for an additional $10 into what becomes a $20 pot. The flop comes 6AQ with two clubs. My opponent checks the flop, and I check it right back after a few seconds pause.

The turn brings an offsuit King, giving me 2nd pair decent kicker. This time my opponent leads out small:

This bet seems a bit post-oaky to me, and in any event I have 2nd pair decent kicker so I'm not laying down to a minbet. I call. The river then brings a second Ace, and my opponent bets out a bit more this time:

This card doesn't actually hurt me since it is offsuit and therefore I am still behind now if I was already behind before the river, and I am still ahead now if I was already ahead before the river card. So do you call here? Who is folding? Anybody raising in this spot?

See you tonight for Mondays at the Hoy on full tilt! Newcomers welcome!!

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Blogger ZachSellsMagic said...

I think the turn bet was designed not to lose you and the river bet wants a call.

I'd fold.

10:22 PM  
Blogger Brez said...

Even though I'm not part of the BBT, maybe the inclusion of the five players would be justified if they could pay some sort of buy-in, that would be transferred to the top 5 finishers?

10:35 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Call river obv.

10:47 PM  
Blogger Mike Maloney said...

I call the river, but I've been such a donkey at the cash games lately.

As far as the freeroll goes, I think you have to let everyone back in. It's not like everyone gets to start back up with the chipstacks they had when FT froze up. I get to go from being shortstacked back to average with everyone else, for example. Imagine if I had just been knocked down to 75 chips on an all-in hand right before FT froze up. I would still be allowed in the tourney, back at 2500 chips like nothing happened. If we're playing by those rules, I think you have to let the people who were knocked out back in too, and just start fresh.

Besides, it's not like Waffles isn't going to get busted on the first hand again anyways.

10:55 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Everyone should be allowed a fresh start in the freeroll. The event was cancelled and it's like the first one never took place.

Like a baseball game that is rained out before it becomes official. All stats are wiped out and the game is started over like it was never even played.

Unless we pick up the freeroll exactly where it was when FT crashed, then everyone has a clean slate. It sucks for those who had doubled up and it's good for those who busted.

I can't believe this would even be open for debate. IMO its an absolute no-brainer.

11:10 PM  
Blogger RaisingCayne said...

I call the river bet myself, (but I'm a consistent cash game loser, so am curious as to your thought process here.)

11:23 PM  
Blogger L'artiste said...

How can you fold that river when you called the turn bet? You called the turn cause youm thought you were ahead right? Than the second ace changes nothing, you're still ahead so call.

11:28 PM  
Blogger Matt said...

I think we can rule out AA, KK, AK, or QQ since he didn't reraise preflop. Perhaps he does have one of those hands, but if so, he's playing it pretty badly.

By the river, I put his range of hand on any ace, 66, Kx, JT, or a busted flush draw. What gets me though is his turn bet - it's just so freakin small. If he's got a hand, it's not really building the pot nor is it chasing out any draws. IMO, it screams mega weakness. Because of that, I don't give too much merit to his river bet. It could be the nuts, it also could be a busted draw trying to steal the pot, since you haven't shown any aggressiveness post-flop. I think, at worst, you end up splitting the pot. Make the call.

I don't think there's any reason to raise. On that board, you'll only push out any bluffs and get called by a hand that either beats you or splits the pot.

11:39 PM  
Blogger Buddy Dank said...

Since I was one of the five that was out already it's fairly obvious that I would like to have everyone back in the BBT Freeroll. But I'm not going to be upset either way.

Sorry but there will not be commentary during the MATH this evening on BuddyDank Radio. But people can still listen to the music and make requests.
I'll be taking all of Numbono's money at the live game tonight!

12:03 AM  
Blogger CEMfromMD said...

I think that we have to let everyone back in, unless we are able to recreate everyones chip stack. Heck I was short stacked (less thn 60% of my starting chips) but if I am allowed to start back at 2500, I dont see how it is fair that those who are out shouldnt get the restart also. The baseball analogy was a good one, if its cancelled due to reaching a "completion" (which by FT rules would be at a point where they could pay out to players remaining), then it should start over anew.

12:24 AM  
Blogger Julius_Goat said...

Before I read the other posts, this looks like a classic busted flush draw from a foob (that'd be a frustrated noob).

I call here.

12:47 AM  
Blogger Julius_Goat said...

Oh, and I don't care if the busto's get back in. As long as we play the thing on a day when I'm free, I am a happy goat.

Give ever'body eat!

12:48 AM  
Blogger Wwonka said...

The freeroll should be restarted where it left off.

Giving the 5 people who were out another shot isn't Quite fair to everyone else.

If this had been the Math tourney the Money would have been paid out according to chip counts. Not restarted from scratch.

Ohh and You still seem to have the facts wrong in reference to the J9s hand. Maybe you should look at the HH before you make stupid comments.


12:54 AM  
Blogger MHG said...

Amen about the Shawshank Redemption reference! Every time I find that movie playing on TV I have to watch it until the very end. The big tree with the rock-hedge and the white sand beach make me smile every.single.time.

I fold K-J face up and then berate him if he shows the bluff.

1:12 AM  
Blogger lj said...

agree wholeheartedly w/ meanhappyguy and your post. i am unable to turn away from the shawshank redemption whenever i find it on, and i bawl at the same spots, even though i've seen it, well, let's just say it's probably over 25 by now.

i have a really? problem so i call. but agree with others that if you're gonna call the turn, why fold river. if you were behind to top pair on turn, you're still behind now!

i was in top 5 before freeroll crashed, so agree that it would be lovely if we could get our chips back and pick up where we left off. since that's not possible it seems most fair to have a do over. not sure i can think of any other equitable solution, even though it's unfortunate. plus now bayne can play.

1:20 AM  
Blogger Irongirl01 said...

As for the BBT.. Unless we can pick it up where we were where it started I think those who were out should be allowed back in. Its not fair to penalize them If for example I am allowed to start at the full stack.

1:26 AM  
Blogger smokkee said...

i got a feeling ur up against A-rag there. if you called the lamo turn bet, i'm sure you're calling the river bet.

1:35 AM  
Blogger Astin said...

Option (a) We all pick up where we left off, with me in 6th place.

(b) The 5 railbirds don't get back in, but their starting stacks get distributed evenly through the remaining players.

(c) Let the 5 railbirds play in an SnG to determine who gets back in

(d) Everyone starts from scratch. I don't actually likes this option. If, however, I was out, my opinion would be different because I'm a selfish bastard.

BTW - Call. If you're wrong, whoopdedoo. If you're right, you don't get bluffed again. I think it's worth the $16 purely from an information perspective.

2:02 AM  
Blogger Alan aka RecessRampage said...

I'd call in a heartbeat. But my leak tends to be the overcall...

I got stacked twice at a 3-6NL table.. rest of the weekend was spent trying to minimize the damage... :) And I was off to such a hot start this weekend... 2nd best hands suck.

As for the freeroll, I'd say restart without the 5 that dropped out but personally I don't care either way. I am, however, surprised with the overwhelming vote for doing the tourney including all 5 that busted.

2:10 AM  
Blogger Blinders said...

I am not for letting the bustouts back in. This was a freeroll, and your freeroll ends when you bust out. Can't wait till one of them takes it down and all the complaning that will happen after that. You should not be able to win an MTT that you busted out of (unless it is a rebuy, and you pony up)

4:54 AM  
Blogger Unknown said...

I haven't seen the other comments. I find it hard to believe that he would not bet his Ace with two clubs and a possible straight out there as well. It's entirely possible that he called your raise with J,10 or QQ or 66, but he should bet that, too, with that board.
He's making it very cheap for you to call, so I call and I think I've got him. Q,10?

5:50 AM  
Blogger Dr Zen said...

It looks like ace-rag, some sort of queen or busted clubs. Call. He'll have the latter two enough to make you good here.

6:31 AM  
Blogger Pseudo_Doctor said...

Ace Rag at worst for your opponent....or he had the Queen and then bet bigger on the river thinking that ace helped his hand considering two out there means a less likely chance your holding an ace...either way I'd call because u didnt find out where you stood on the turn

8:20 AM  
Blogger pk said...

I would agree with pokerpeaker mainly - smacks of a busted draw, most likely the straight so I'll go for call and watch him turn QT or QJ.

5:43 PM  

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