Wednesday, April 19, 2006

Resolution to Hot Hand #2

Once again thanks to everyone for the thoughtful insights and comments to Hot Hand #2. I'm going to post the results of the hand here. I'll also point out that this time, nobody guessed correctly what the donkfish was holding. But that's a good sign, because I would argue that anyone who could get a read on this hand has some serious mental issues and an even more serious total lack of poker thinking.

By way of summary (you can read all the details in the next most recent entry to the blog below), I was dealt pocket Queens in middle position. I raised it up 3x the big blind, and only the big blind called. The flop came J53 with two hearts. My opponent bet 400 into a pot of 1080, which I raised to 1200 with my overpair and with the potential flush draw out there. He called. The turn came the 8 of hearts. My fishponent bet 160 into a pot of 3480 (Gutless!! Gutless!!). I raised it up to 1200 once again with my overpair, which my opponent again called. Then the river was a 3 of hearts, making four hearts to the board and leaving me sure I had lost to a brutal runner-runner flush for basically all my chips.

When we flipped our cards, my overpair Queens was up against:



That's right, folks. The fishdonk had AQo, with the Ace of hearts. So, my read had been right on all along, almost to a tee. And the cards absolutely schmeistered me with the runner-runner flush to knock me out of the tournament (actually I had a few chips left, which I built up a bit until this bad beat on the river eventually did me in officially, but you get the idea).

But moreso than the incredibly horrific cards I ran into in order to lose this megapot in Hot Hand #2, I would really like to hear everyone's thoughts on what this fish could possibly have been thinking with his calls on the flop and the turn. I mean, I might be able to accept that he was willing to call off an appropriate portion of his hard-earned stack with just the backdoor nut flush draw and the two overs, but I saw to it personally with my flop raise that he definitely did not have the odds to make the call on the flop, not with the possibility that I could be four-flushing, have top pair, or even have ANY pair for that matter. That was a redonkulous call, was it not?

Even worse than that call, when the third heart came on the turn, yes that gave him the runnerrunner nut flush draw, but it could have also made me my complete flush, and he still had stone cold nothing. Not even AK-high. Just AQ-high and a 1-card flush draw, in a pot that his opponent had bet strongly into twice. And I properly put it to him on the turn, reading his cards almost exactly, and charging him basically all of his remaining chips on the turn to stay in on his 20% flush draw / Ace draw (and he couldn't even know that an Ace would win it for him, after my aggressive betting along the way in the hand). Again, unless I am missing something, is this not one of the donkiest plays in the history of poker blogger tournaments?

Now tell me, would any of you have been able to put this guy on this hand? Even I, who read him more or less like a book in this hand, still put him on the Ace of hearts and a Jack, for top pair on the flop at least. To call my large flop bet for around a third of his hard-earned stack, with nothing but two overcards and a backdoor nut flush draw, that is just inexplicably donkalicious to me. Then to call again on the turn with still just the two overs, but now a flush draw instead with just one card to come, it's pure donkfish. And yet IGH from a tournament I had been given a second and even a third chance in, and was finally just starting to turn things around and made it to the top 10 of the remaining players. Just. Plain. Sick.

Am I wrong here guys??!! Could I possibly have avoided this outcome given the way the cards fell?

10 Comments:

Blogger HighOnPoker said...

Looks like Friday will happen. Shoot me an email highonpokr@yahoo.com so we can flesh out the details. Right now, I'm inviting you, the two ladies from I Had Outs (.blogspot.com), DrewsPop, Lady Falcon, and I'm trying to think of other NYC bloggers who might be interested. Sox Lover, probably too. I'm thinking either 1/2 NL or a $40-60 buy-in tournament. Let me know.

2:57 AM  
Blogger alan said...

You put him on a draw on the flop, when he bet only 400 into 1080. You had 2845 left at this point, and you said yourself that the pot was already nice and big given stack sizes. Your raise to 1200 isn't really a pot sized raise... he only has to call 800 at 1880, getting 2.35:1, and leaving you with only 1645 with a 3480 pot. I would have pushed all in right there to win the pot. It's a slight overbet, but the pot was big and you wanted to win it without seeing an ace, king, or heart come out.

4:45 AM  
Blogger Miami Don said...

I've been thinking about this Hot Hand and I finally get it now as it relates to a cash game hand I played at the MGM this weekend and some other hands I also witnessed.

You're dealing with a calling station/weak player and even though you read the guy almost perfectly no matter what bet you make on the turn it will not be a factor.

He called a large re-raise on the flop with an Ace high and needing a runner/runner to catch the flush. Once the 3rd heart came on the turn there is absolutely no way this guy will lay down to any bet you make. If you pushed he certainly would have called because he already called your turn bet leaving him with only $400. So you're basically at the mercy of the turn.

At this point all you could have done is call his crappy turn bet. If a heart comes on the river you lay your hand down and if the river is junk you push at which point he probably lays it down.

Thanks for the Hot Hand 2 Hoy as it solves the problem I've had with the my hand from the weekend and it will help in future similar situation.

Seems strange but true that a good player might have to adjust/weaken his play based upon some donkey style of Poker

6:10 AM  
Blogger smokkee said...

I almost had it (guessed AKo). Maybe i'm getting closer to understanding donk play or close to becoming one. as Don said, once that heart hit the turn, there's no way he's getting away from this hand. you're probably better off slowing down and just calling his lame turn bet so you can get away from it with a few chips if the heart or overcard comes. You read it well, you just ran into a calling station who got super lucky. StatikKling was it? i'm gonna look up his blog.

6:20 AM  
Blogger Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

It is really beyond me how you guys can say I could have or should have just called his weakass 160 chip turn bet. No way that is the right move here in my book -- I (correctly) put him on a nut flush draw after the turn. Now I'm thinking back to what every pro has ever said in any interview or book they've had -- you have to make people pay for their draws. Yes I could have just pushed allin on the turn, but as you all have correctly pointed out, he's just going to call that anyways. But no, I do not in any way accept that I should have just called 160 into a 3480 pot when I knew this guy was on a flush draw. That's me giving up a pot that I am a 4 to 1 favorite to win at that point.

5:12 PM  
Blogger SoxLover said...

My two cents.

Agree you played it right on very street.

Generally agree that he played it poorly on most every street--however, without knowing the guy, he did not play it impossibly badly, just badly.

Pre-flop: facing a standard reraise (3x) with a bottom end premium hand (factor says fold) from an agressive player (factor says consider not giving credit), he called for a discount out of position (I prefer raise or fold here, but calling to see a flop with a big ace out of position against an aggressive player is not awful).

Flop: Here's where he made the biggest mistakes by far. Leading out into this flop I'm not sure is terrible--if you were playing crap you might well go away, but if you do it, you must make a bigger bet (at least 2/3 pot). I prefer usually (not always) sticking to plan a with a big ace out of position against an aggro: see your flop, preferably hit the queen rather than the ace since the latter is less likely get paid when ahead, check if you miss or hit the queen (bet out with the ace usually) and when the probably raise comes, fold if you don't have it, pop if you do. Weak lead out with nothing against agro is a strange play--his call of your reraise here is awful.

Turn: Can't stand the weak lead, but he's correct to call the all-in reraise. Prefer pushing once he's made the mistake to be here since he picked up outs and may have some fold equity if the smooth call represented a set and the flush card lends cred to a flush (could you fold an over pair to that flush card, yes I think you could have). He's calling 1040 to win 4680. Hands he can put you on most likely: overpair, trips, TPw/heart, TPTK. Against the worst of those he has 8 outs and is getting slightly less than required pot odds with 1 card, against the best (TPw/heart) he has 14 outs. Against the range, he has the odds and there are SO MANY chips in the pot. Folding would have been a huge mistake. As you know, you were absolulely correct to make him pay for that last card.

Bad play, but not quite the worst ever.

6:41 PM  
Blogger Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

Sox, excellent analysis of course. A couple of points though. Number one, I don't think that he got any kind of discount on the flop call. Yes I could have gone NUTS with the overpair and moved in, but we all know how often the Hiltons lose, so I made what I thought was a correct raise, one that gave the fish worse odds to call than the math provided to him. He had no pair on the board, that's the thing that makes all his calls so poor. Same thing on the turn, where he made a call on a 5 to 1 shot and paid the pot 4 to 1 to make it. Although I could have pushed harder on the flop, I don't think it was right at the time to move in my entire stack with the biatch Hiltons, even an overpair. Either way, let's just agree it was fishy as hell. And it sucked for me.

Maybe see you on Friday?

7:53 PM  
Blogger L'artiste said...

Here’s why I think calling the turn bet would have been the better option: to give you a chance to get away from the hand at the river. If you knew, absolutely knew, that he was gonna call a turn raise on your part, why commit yourself completely to this pot when your hand is still vulnerable to a few cards (any hearts, any ace or king, etc.) ? And that’s if we’re not already completely dead at this point, AhQh could have been one his holdings.

Don’t get me wrong, his call of the flop raise was absolutely atrocious, but that turn card combined with the size of the pot justified his actions for staying in this hand after.

This is a big thing I’m trying to work into my game right now. Not falling in love with a big pocket pair. If I pick up a big pocket pair, I want to get the money in preflop and win that thing on the flop at the latest. Keep the pot small and always give yourself a chance to get away from a pot where you’re really only holding one pair.

9:24 PM  
Blogger Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

Artiste, a couple of things. For the most part I agree with everything you said in your most recent comment. I did put in a good-sized raise on the flop with my Queens. I'm not someone who moves allin for 2500 chips into a 75-chip pot preflop without a good reason to do so, but I made a standard raise preflop because I agree, the point with big pairs, in particular with the fucking Hiltons, is to win the pot as quickly and early as possible.

And secondly, to be clear, if I had known he wasn't going to fold to my 1200 raise on the turn, then I would argue that #1 I should be more than willing to put in the big bet and get 5 to 1 on him taking a 4 to 1 shot, and #2 the point is, I did not know that he wouldn't fold. I made that bet on the assumption that I read to now be on a 17% flush draw, so he would fold to my big turn raise. I still can't believe he didn't. But no, I had no idea that he was so clownorific as to stay in that pot on not one but two bad-odds calls. I guess I should have realized earlier what an utter donklefish he was, but like I said, he's a poker blogger and I assumed that meant he has a basic understanding of pot odds.

I won't be making that mistake again.

9:40 PM  
Blogger iamhoff said...

Nice to see I at least got the Ah correct. Hoy, you played it right at every point. Just calling his weak bet on the turn is just hindsight talking...you had the pot odds and you had the better hand...you make the raise. Unfortunately you were up against the dreaded creature donkfish. He was going to call any bet preflop with ace-paint, so there would be no scaring him off there. The only decent move I saw him make was his continutation (although I'm sure he doesn't even understand the concept) bet on the flop. He should have folded on your raise, but he was looking at two overcards, nut flush draw, and nut straight draw. To a donkfish, that's golden. I speak donkfish. I know. Donkfish happens, man. See ya at the Mookie tonight.

12:47 AM  

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