Tuesday, March 13, 2007

MATH Update, and a Hand to Analyze

Well, last night's Hoy went as expected, with my plan to knock blogger tournament killer Fuel55 out before the final table working to a tee as everyone took their shots early and often, and most players refused to back down in the face of the man's truly unbridled aggression. In fact, just about the only guy whom I remember backing down to Fuel was me, and that was when I knew he was on a bluff (he showed JT with nothing but a straight draw on the turn after I folded), but I was on an even worse bluff with just 6-high and the low end of that same straight draw. Otherwise, people pushed Fuel hard, and the end result was Wigginx taking Fuel down shortly before final table play began, and indirectly preserving my continuing dominance atop the 2007 Hoy money leaderboard as a result (all part of my plan...heh heh). And congrats to Wigz for winning himself that $10 bounty for eliminating Mr. Fuel from the event, money very well spent as far as I'm concerned.

In the end it was Bayne once again taking a big chip lead into the Hoy bubble (4 players left), with Omega_man_99 and new Hoy player Santa Clauss both sitting on similar-sized stacks as well with 3 players remaining, but that quickly changed as Bayne lost a few pots and then Clauss eliminated the 4th place finisher (I think this was Byron in fact, after a sick, sick riverstars suckout as I recall) to take a nice-sized chip lead heading into the money positions. After a fairly short final 2 eliminations for a MATH tournament, in the end it was Bayne ending in third place for $68, Omega in 2nd for $102, and winning the Hoy in his first-ever appearance that I have seen was Santa Clauss, taking down $170 for his efforts. Congratulations to all of our cashers, in particular to Clauss for his first-ever Hoy win, as well as to Bayne for inching ever higher on the Hoy leaderboard. And speaking of which, here are the updated standings, which after Monday night now include exactly 20 players who have cashed to some degree in the Hoy through 10 weekly tournaments so far this year:

1. Hoyazo $472
2. Fuel55 $458
3. Bayne_s $410
4. VinNay $310
5. Wigginx $288
6. Manik79 $252
7. Omega_man_99 $210
8. bartonfa $180
9. Santa Clauss $170
10. Smokkee $162
11. Chad $120
11. Zeem $120
13. Ganton516 $114
14. Byron $108
15. NewinNov $90
16. Columbo $80
16. PhinCity $80
16. jeciimd $80
19. l.e.s.ter000 $72
20. Julius Goat $60

In other news, did everyone see that Iggy has a new uberpost up at his old digs at Guinness and Poker? Talk about back and better than ever. I have got to say, Iggy's latest is truly an uberpost just like old times. Go check it out if you haven't yet.

For my last item today, I want to pose a hand for you all to analyze. Someone whose game I respect very much analyzed this hand recently, and I would like to solicit your opinions as to whether you agree or disagree with his suggested approach. So here is the setup:

You're in a major nlh tournament, down to just 12 players remaining on two tables. Blinds are 2k-4k with a 500-chip ante. Of the six players at your table, the stacks are, starting from UTG and moving to the right: 100k, 200k, 140k, the button is 120k, the small blind is 80k, and you are sitting in the big blind with a 300k stack. The first three players fold, and then the button, a guy who you have observed stealing the blinds in the past, raises your big blind to 15k. The small blind folds. You look down to find J2s.

What's your move here? You're on the big stack at the table, and your cards are sooooted. And, you know the button could be stealing as you've seen him do it before. Are your starting cards combined with your stack size sufficient for you to play here? Do you fold, call or raise it up and try to re-steal the blinds and the button's raise right now? How would you play this hand?

I'll be back later with what this very respectable player advocated doing in this situation, as well as my thoughts, but since the two differ I would like to get everyone else's opinions first.

Wheatie tonight, 8:30pm ET on pokerstars. Password is "monkey" as always. Which also describes generally the play you will see in this thing for the most part. Yet for some reason I can't stop myself from playing in this tournament whenever I am free. Go figure.

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16 Comments:

Blogger StB said...

I let him have it. I don't like it, but I let him have it. When the time comes, I will hit back. But for now, I can focus on getting to the final table and stealing the blinds behind me.

I did that this past Sunday. Had someone going after my BB every time. I waited until I had something decent (in this case 4 4) and popped him back the size of the pot. He folded and then left my blinds alone.

If I am going to fight back, I don't want to find a spot where he suddenly has something. Face cards don't worry me as much as big pairs do.

If I am going to play, I am most likely raising. Calling with a bet on the flop if an A shows up ain't bad though.

10:50 PM  
Blogger smokkee said...

i'd let it go and wait for a better spot.

calling is no good. if you reraise him 3x to 45k and he pushes, you'll have to call and hope for the best. i'd rather reraise a button stealer with a better hand than J2sooted.

11:21 PM  
Blogger bayne_s said...

As http://jacksrok.blogspot.com/ can tell you I would call here.

This is 1/6 the button's stack and 1/20 of your stack. If flop has J or two of your suit you bet, anything else it's you bet if you feel he missed.

11:51 PM  
Blogger Byron said...

There was no suckout - I was shortstacked (M~4, I think) and made an UTG push with K10o after folding for 3-4 orbits when we were 4 handed. Santa Clauss called (after a long think which made me think he was holding a med sized Ace) with pocket 10's. K10 vs p10's ain't no suckout (although I wish I would have!).

It was entirely my own fault, as I'd let him back into the game a few levels earlier by doubling him when he pushed (in my defense, Santa was pushing about every other orbit last night!) while I was holding pocket 3's. My instacall had him flip over pocket 4's. Booooo!

12:04 AM  
Blogger jjok said...

bayne......haha.

Let's break the monotony and say raise to 45K. If he pushes, I don't agree with smoke that you have to call. Kinduva "why the fuck did I do that" move at that point, but you def still can fold getting less than 2:1.

Realistically, I'm folding without the reraise.

12:15 AM  
Blogger Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

There was one sick suckout late at the final table last night in the Hoy that I can't remember the details of. I just know that I saw the thing happen and I was pretty sick to my stomach for whoever it was who got nailed. Not sure who the parties were to be honest.

Thanks for all the comments on the hand from today's post so far. Keep 'em coming. It's interesting that nobody so far seems to want to go for it just based on the large stack we have going on.

1:04 AM  
Blogger Byron said...

The suckout was by Bayne_S against Omega. I remember I was pissed because it would have cased (we were 4-handed at the time). I can't remember the preflop action, but they both got it all in on the flop. Omega had top & bottom pair, Bayne had bottom two. Bayne was all-in and ready to go when he turned the full house. I recall your comment from the observer chat "I think I just threw up in my mouth a little". It was a cooler of a hand in the first place for 4-handed play, and the luck light happened to be shining on Bayne in that particular hand. Omega started jamming nearly every hand after that and worked his way back up pretty nicely for a cash finish (as opposed to me!).

On the J2sooooted hand. Calling is out of the question. I hate x2 of anything, sooted or not. The button is too obvious of a position for a steal, so I'd give him credit for a real hand.

With a 300K stack, a 4500 loss is inconsequential. I would fold and pick a better spot to try and eliminate players. If he is stealing, let him think he can steal from me and then nail him when I get dealt a better hand.

1:20 AM  
Blogger jeciimd said...

Interesting hand. I would say that the most important observation regarding this hand is not whether you have noted your opponent to be a stealer, but rather have you seen him fold "correctly." If not, you're exposing a good chunk of your stack with a very marginal holding.

1:24 AM  
Blogger Fuel55 said...

It was tough to survive attacks in the Hoy like A4, A6 and 22 ...

Good grief I love blogger play!

As to J2s - FOLD.

1:37 AM  
Blogger BurnleyMik said...

I don't think calling is a bad move here. You have position after the flop and the pressure is then on him. I don't really like the J2s, but there is $22k in the pot and it's $11k to call, so you are getting 2:1 against one opponent. I would see a flop and take it from there. Even if you fold on the flop, the SB is going to be much more cautious when raising your BB in future and so makes him less likely to try and steal from you again without the goods. Interesting hand though. The only problem with folding is that the SB and other players at the table may see this as weakness and you may find yourself under attack in the BB every round. Very interesting hand though.

2:55 AM  
Blogger bayne_s said...

Hoy,

Here is sick suckout hand:

PokerStars Game #8876802509: Tournament #45044480, $20+$2 Hold'em No
Limit - Level VIII (200/400) - 2007/03/13 - 00:01:19 (ET)
Table '45044480 1' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: omega_man_99 (7705 in chips)
Seat 2: bdidde (5319 in chips)
Seat 4: Santa Clauss (6407 in chips)
Seat 8: bayne_s (6069 in chips)
omega_man_99: posts the ante 25
bdidde: posts the ante 25
Santa Clauss: posts the ante 25
bayne_s: posts the ante 25
Santa Clauss: posts small blind 200
bayne_s: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bayne_s [6h Th]
bdidde said, "nh"
omega_man_99: calls 400
bdidde: folds
Santa Clauss: folds
bayne_s: checks
*** FLOP *** [Ac 6d Td]
bayne_s: bets 800
omega_man_99: raises 1600 to 2400
bayne_s: raises 3244 to 5644 and is all-in
omega_man_99: calls 3244
*** TURN *** [Ac 6d Td] [Tc]
*** RIVER *** [Ac 6d Td Tc] [3c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
bayne_s: shows [6h Th] (a full house, Tens full of Sixes)
omega_man_99: shows [6s As] (two pair, Aces and Tens)
bayne_s said, "ewww"
bayne_s collected 12388 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 12388 | Rake 0
Board [Ac 6d Td Tc 3c]
Seat 1: omega_man_99 showed [6s As] and lost with two pair, Aces and Tens
Seat 2: bdidde (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Santa Clauss (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: bayne_s (big blind) showed [6h Th] and won (12388) with a
full house, Tens full of Sixes

And comments from later hands:

Santa Clauss said, "sick"
hoyazo [observer] said, "i just threw up in my mouth."

3:24 AM  
Blogger Astin said...

Calling is a mistake. You call and fold, you've increased his stack by over 16% vs 7.5% if you fold. You don't have position after the flop, facing a pre-flop raiser. Assuming he is stealing, you're only going to increase your stack by 1.5% if there's no further action after the flop and you take it down.

So fold or raise? Again, I don't think the amount you could win warrants the risk to re-steal. You'd have to pop it up another 45-60k likely to make it matter. But, if you've been handing him your blinds for a while and figure it's time to take a stand against a steal, then go for it. You can afford to walk away if he pushes back. Personally, I'm leaning heavily towards a fold with J2s. A stronger hand and I might re-raise, but that sucker's in trouble against just about everything if he doesn't fold.

3:28 AM  
Blogger FishyMcDonk said...

RE: J2s. Has no one advocated the obvious? Jam baby! errr, I mean fold.

3:34 AM  
Blogger BurnleyMik said...

I don't think re-raising here would work. He is very unlikely to try and steal from the biggest stack without some kind of hand. Maybe a small pair which he could be pushed off Post flop, but pre flop he may fancy his chances a jam against a re-raise. a re-raise would be committing too many of your chips, where-as a call, with position maybe be a more positive move. Folding is also a decent move, but if you feel this guy is a stealer, then IMO call and take him on the flop.

4:10 AM  
Blogger Mondogarage said...

I'm with stb, smokee, and others. Even if he is on a steal, I'd want to resteal with at least a couple of draws. Not just a medium flush draw and no straight draw.

If you re-raise him enough to not make it an insta-call, he becomes pot committed. You have to consider he may have already thought that out ahead of time.

Also, if you let this one go, that may increase the odds of a steal attempt next go round, where you may well have a much better hand to spank back with.

However, isn't J2s the Dawn or something? She'd totally jam it here.

5:17 AM  
Blogger Detonator said...

Raise around 40,000. Late in the tournament you must defend. If he reraises let it go.

11:23 AM  

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