Thursday, June 14, 2007

Live Hand Analysis

Today I find myself thinking more and more about a hand that we all saw live at the 1-2 nlh cash tables at the MGM poker room this weekend. I actually wrote a bit about the hand yesterday, as it involved fellow bloggers Alan Penner and Iakaris, and today I'd like to hear your thoughts on how you would play this hand from either player's perspective. Some of my numbers may be a bit off, but I've definitely got the general gist of the hand here.

Action folds around preflop to Iakaris in middle position. Iak raises the $2 big blind to $10, which had become the standard raise at this table after most of the players around the table had amassed stacks of at least 2 to 3 buyins. It folds over to Alan who calls the raise, and the big blind calls as well. We see a heads-up flop of A23, all clubs.

Action is to Iakaris, holding A3 suited (no clubs, obviously). He's got top two pairs, but no piece of the possible flush. Do you bet here?

Iak bets out $30, basically the size of the pot. Generally speaking, I think you have to bet here. You've flopped a strong hand, and while I normally enjoy slow-playing top two pairs, in this case with 3 clubs on the board, I don't see how you are helped by potentially allowing a fourth club to fall which will basically require you to lay your hand down to any significant action.

Meanwhile, Penner has 54s, also no clubs, but he has flopped the nut straight. How do you like to respond to this bet from Iak?

Penner stares at the board for about 10 seconds and then puts in a massive overraise of around $160, enough to put Iak allin. If you're Iak, do you call this bet for the rest of your chips? Do you believe you are likely ahead at this point, or behind?

As I wrote about yesterday, in the end Iakaris thought about this raise for a long, long time. He was really struggling. Eventually, he slid the rest of his chips into the middle, making the call for the rest of his stack and taking his chances. Penner flipped up the straight, and Iak was already behind and Penner went on to win the hand. I lost a $5 prop bet on the hand because I figured that for Iak to call, he would have to have had a high club in his hand, when in reality, interestingly, neither player had any clubs.

What do you guys think about how either or both players played this hand?

Labels: ,

22 Comments:

Blogger Eric a.k.a. Bone Daddy said...

Live poker is rigged!!

1:59 AM  
Blogger Eric a.k.a. Bone Daddy said...

I like Ike's bet, it defined where he was in the hand.....Behind.

2:04 AM  
Blogger Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

So then should Iak have folded to the big raise from Alan on the all-suited flop?

2:36 AM  
Blogger crazdgamer said...

Action is to Iakaris, holding A3 suited (no clubs, obviously). He's got top two pairs, but no piece of the possible flush. Do you bet here?

Sure do. I'd bet pot (which is what Iak did.)

Meanwhile, Penner has 54s, also no clubs, but he has flopped the nut straight. How do you like to respond to this bet from Iak?

Raise. I'd be putting Iak on an Ax or trying to protect trips.

Penner stares at the board for about 10 seconds and then puts in a massive overraise of around $160, enough to put Iak allin. If you're Iak, do you call this bet for the rest of your chips? Do you believe you are likely ahead at this point, or behind?

In Iak's shoes, I'd put Penner's range on high ace + high club, trips, straight and flush. I rule out big pair because I would've been re-raised pre-flop. I'd only be ahead against the high ace, and even then I'd have to dodge 9 outs. Everything else I'm behind and drawing to at most 4 outs. Without knowing Penner, I don't know what his style is, but I would depend on a read at this point to try and figure out if he could raise all-in with a high club or ace. Without that knowledge, I'm folding.

2:48 AM  
Blogger Miami Don said...

Tough hand there but I think you have to fold to the massive overbet.

Learing how to fold big hands-- especially two pair-- is huge when playing cash games.

2:51 AM  
Blogger Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

Very good answer, crazdgamer. I even doubt Alan is raising that big on the flop with just a high Ace. There has got to be a club in there in my mind (although there wasn't, in reality).

2:51 AM  
Blogger pokerpeaker said...

I fold after the other guy pushes. Too many things on that board beats you. I like Iak's bet at first but after that I fold.

Here's another thing to think about:
I might consider checking and calling as well, hoping to hit my full house card. The other guy probably bets the pot and I'd call that. Not sure what I'd do on the turn, but possibly check again. It's possible that your call on that board might scare him a little bit and you might be able to see a cheap turn card.

But mostly I bet like Iak did and then fold to his all in push.

2:54 AM  
Blogger Eric a.k.a. Bone Daddy said...

Hey, what ever happened to "what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas".

Oh, and to answer your question, 2 pair against a double coordinated board and a RR is a fold, unless you are in vegas and feel like gambling, 8 more implied outs for the "I'm playing live, let's gamble rush", the math almost starts to work.

3:16 AM  
Blogger JB said...

crazdgamer's response is correct. Lak calling the over bet is foolish, its time to fold

3:18 AM  
Blogger smokkee said...

flopping 2p in a limped pot on a coordinated board in a cash game and not being able to get away from it is a good way to go broke.

you have to fold to the overbet without any real draw.

4:03 AM  
Blogger smokkee said...

btw, you mentioned a preflop raise. but, i don't remember there being one. i could be wrong.

4:04 AM  
Blogger lucko said...

I like how they both played it.

And I wouldn't classify the push a massive overraise either.

4:16 AM  
Blogger bayne_s said...

Like Iak's bet on flop, he is paying for information.

As I see it Alan has 2 choices, smooth call if he is willing to fold if another club hits or push to make Iak pay for a draw. If Iak has flopped a flush on same hand as you have flocked a straight than forsake the poker gods and worship the donkey gods as waffles as chosen to do.

4:19 AM  
Blogger Wwonka said...

this is why i will stick to limit.
But I would fold figuring I am behind and would need to catch perfect to win.

I would put him on a big flush draw,
Set

I would fold But i am a Pussy.

peace
wwonka

4:58 AM  
Blogger Chad Carpenter (Yahoo IM: carchd) said...

Without a club in either hand I cannot believe this pot swelled to the size that it did. The key to NLHE success in my mind is controlling the size of the pot. I am still in shock there was this much money in the pot with not one club in either hand. This whole story would have been different because I folded the King of clubs. Getting over 3/1 in this hand I would have been all in with both of them making the nuts on the river. I like that story better :)

6:07 AM  
Blogger Alan aka RecessRampage said...

I like Iak's flop bet as well. It's funny to me though how quickly everyone advocates the fold. I probably would have too but the fact that Penner pushed makes me think he doesn't want a call (which he probably didn't without knowing Iak's hand so Iak could have put him on AK or something with TPTK nut flush draw). So Iak went with that read and called. That's different from not being able to lay down 2 pair which is what everyone seems to be assuming. Wrong read? sure. but following your read is not wrong.

6:33 AM  
Blogger Dr Zen said...

Without looking at other comments, my answers are: I bet, I think it is too much, it's read dependent. In an unraised pot, I'd call. Raised, I'm tending to fold.

I don't like either player's play all that much. The one guy bet too much on his straight. With the ace on the table, the chances that you called preflop with Axs and are now pushing your NFD are quite slim, but you've probably hit the flop in some way. I'd bet enough to deny a set drawing odds but not all in.

I'm not sure I like the other guy's call. It's tough to lay down though. I guess the other guy could be pushing with AQc.

6:49 AM  
Blogger Iakaris aka I.A.K. said...

Hoy, you got it a little wrong brotha, and I think the difference is important...

Preflop is right as written But after I raise on the flop, he reraises to 90, he has about 240 behind.

I then reraise 180 indicating that my worst holding includes a king of clubs.

He jams after agonizing, even noting "how can I lay this down". At that moment I know he has the Kc or top set or less likely a straight (I admit I didnt see 45d comind). I know I am beat at that point but still have a playable hand I think in terms of potential.

I only have to call 150 for about a 700 dollar pot.

The difference is that I created the pressure to fold out better hands than mine. Nonetheless, it was a war I could have avoided.

I think the interesting questions are do you fold to Alans reraise, and do you call the river.

I see easily the case for the first fold, but I am definitely calling 150 to win 700 when I am not drawing dead there (albiet thin).

Funny but I posted about this one too; it was the most interesting hand I played in vegas by far.

8:54 AM  
Blogger Dillo said...

Fair play by both guys. Gotta bet the two pair, and fair overbet with the flopped straight. Gotta be able to lay down the two pair tho.

8:58 AM  
Blogger lj said...

chad you are hilarious.

11:54 AM  
Blogger Dr Zen said...

The correct action makes it a whole different hand!

1:08 PM  
Blogger golden said...

This Donkey says: Iak was correct to bet out after the flop and most definatly should have folded to the reraise. Seems to me to be a no brainer.

7:31 PM  

Post a Comment

<< Home