Monday, July 09, 2007

MATH Recap, MATH Pimp and an Interesting Cash Hand Question

Howdy pardners! I can honestly say that I'm always happy to be back after a few days away from here at the blog, especially after a weekend full of poker-related degeneracy at the Hammer household. There is just so much to get to, I think I can actually feel the sides of my head swelling every time I try to wrap my brain around all the different topics I have buzzing through my head right now, so I'm resorting to something I almost never do as I write this post: little shorthand notes at the bottom of the text editor to remind me of all the topics I want to get to today. It feels kinda ghey to me, but it gets the job done and that after all is what I'm all about.

So it's been a long time since my last post. I thought I might post while on my vacay, and on the good news front, I did write some or most of about four different posts, which means lots of pokery content on its way here over the next few days. But in the end as I've written about before, a vacation just doesn't seem like a real vacation when I'm still a slave to the blog every day at some point. It was bad enough that I had to do a fair amount of work reading a thick contract we have in preparation for a Monday morning conference call to begin negotiating it with some bastages from one of the big sweatshop New York City law firms. I already know that will mean way-way-too-many sessions of back and forth fighting over a bunch of minutiae that these law firm jagoffs already know is not reasonable, not standard, and not something they're going to end up getting from us in this contract, but they'll be more than happy (insistent, even) to drag these idiotic discussions out for weeks on end, all to eventually give in on them just minutes before our mutual deadline for the negotiations to be completed, probably in exchange for some other more meaningful point that they actually feel is important to get included in our agreement with them. And all the while these law firm clowns will have done their best to have dragged out and extended the time and the difficulty with this negotiation, thereby ensuring that they individually can make their billable hours targets for the year at their law firm, so that they individually can have a better shot at getting a bigger bonus this year, or at making partner in a few years, etc. So what if they hurt their own clients and the deal as a whole by purposely dragging out a week's worth of talks over 20 phone calls and more than a month, creating considerable ill will between the parties that will now have to work closely together for the next several years, generating legal costs to their client several times what they should have been and would have been if this deal were being negotiated in-house on both sides. It's all just to pad their own billable hours with the out-house donkeylawyers, and their complete lack of "just get it done" mentality -- in fact their completely opposite interest to that approach -- makes deals harder for everyone to just sign up and let the business teams of our companies actually do their jobs.

What I just described is the roadmap to my next 30 days of work. Plus those other three full time jobs I am working these days. Good times. Anyways, all this is to say that I had to work enough already as it is over the weekend with this big deal I'm doing, and as a result I just didn't find the time to blog as well. But like I said you will make up for it this week with an overflow of content. As a teaser, I have a couple of BBT review-type of posts coming which I think will have some interesting stuff for those of you who like to read here on a regular basis. I also had my first live home game in several years at my place over the weekend, which was attended by several bloggers, friends, and friends of friends. Profitable, too, but all that too is for a later post this week, other than to say that I had a fuckin great time and really wish I could do this more often. Hey, maybe it's time for us New York bloggers to get a weekly game together? That would be badass. We should be playing weekly $.50 - $1 cash for $100 buyins. I would make the time in the evenings for that, and if I could make the time then anyone could. I say that with confidence.

I would be remiss if I did not also mention that the New York metro area's own SoxLover (you may know him better as Fishiswa) won Saturday night's 28k. That's right -- going right after the KOD himself, on KOD's own stomping ground. This is Sox's first major online tournament score, so I say to you, Sox, "Welcome to the club!". It's still a fairly small club among our group of players who have ever outright won a major mtt on one of the big online poker sites, but the great thing is that it's a club that is constantly growing, never remaining constant. Despite all my serious joking aside, the overall poker skill of the "average" poker blogger is actually increasing, and that is something that makes me very happy to know, to observe from the inside, and in fact to be a part of. Although obviously it's morphed into much more than this, one of the main reasons I ever started the blog was to try to help other people, in my own unique ways, to become better players by highlighting my mistakes, highlighting their mistakes, and fostering discussion on these points that would be helpful to a bunch of players who might stumble upon my site some day. To be someone who others credit with helping their game from time to time is something I always love to hear, and while I'm certainly not saying that SoxLover specifically has ever learned anything from me, to be just a small part of the machine that helps good players become better players in some miniscule way is a role that I relish given the amount of time and effort I typically put into this whole blogging thing.

OK this Monday post has gone on long enough without the requisite self-promotion:



Back from the holiday week it is time for the next Mondays at the Hoy tournament, for the foreseeable future remaining at full tilt poker at 10pm ET, password as always of "hammer". I cannot tell you how psyched I am looking at a week of the Hoy, the Mookie, and Riverchasers, all without the pressure of the scoring system of the BBT looming over a good half the players' minds and influencing everyone's play across the board. Getting together, playing hard, taking some chances without worrying about anything external to the tournament itself, pushing with just that oesd on the flop in the first hour on an allin reraise, that my friends is what the blonkaments are all about, at least in my book, and this will be our first 3-blonkament week on that front in a long time. So come on out and join the festivities tonight at 10pm ET on full tilt!

Now before I forget, since I stopped posting for my vacation with my post from last Monday, I never got to review the results of last week's MATH tournament. As this is kind of old news now I don't plan to spend any real amount of time covering the event. Let's just say that we had 23 runners in the first post-BBT MATH, and the tournament featured surprisingly slow and tight play most of the way through, with only three players busting out in the first hour of the tournament. But for the first time in a long time, there were no "points" to shoot for, no recognition or happiness for finishing in 12th place of 23 players, and no reason to aim for that goal at any point in the event. I have to say, I really liked it. I missed this. BBT dominator Bayne was the third player out once the BBT wasn't there to kick around anymore, and Maudie showed up for her first MATH in a long time as the BBT rolled out of town.

In the end, the top 3 spots paid in last week's MATH tournament, with our very own fluxer coming in third place and capturing $110.40 for his efforts, which included calling every single time I raised before the flop without exception through the entire time at my table. And I do mean every single time. That was fun for me, but eventually I ran my JackAce on a J96 flop into Jordan 66 and my night ended somewhere in the early-middle of the tournament but before fluxer could get his claws onto my chips.

In second place for $165.60 in last week's MATH was lightning36, making his second or third appearance of the year on the Hoy moneyboard but his first in several weeks. I wasn't there to see the end so I can't comment on how it went down, but knowing who the champion was it is probably some luckbox move.

And speaking of the most recent MATH champion, for his second Hoy title in three weeks, was Lucko, who I understand is out in Vegas right now as you read this playing in Day 1d of the WSOP Main Event on Monday. So best of lucko to Lucko, and congratulations to the man who moves up into the top 10 on the 2007 MATH moneyboard with his $276 payout for another first prize:

1. Bayne_s $1175
2. Hoyazo $849
3. Columbo $801
4. VinNay $775
5. cmitch $774
6. Iggy $745
7. NewinNov $677
8. Lucko21 $665
9. Astin $616
10. Tripjax $561
11. Julius Goat $507
12. mtnrider81 $492
13. Chad $485
14. scots_chris $474
15. Fuel55 $458
16. Otis $429
17. Miami Don $402
18. Jordan $382
19. Blinders $379
20. Pirate Wes $372
21. lightning36 $371
22. IslandBum1 $357
23. ChapelncHill $353
24. Zeem $330
25. Mike_Maloney $326
26 oossuuu754 $312
27. leftylu $295
28. Waffles $294
29. Wigginx $288
30. ScottMc $282
31. Fishy McDonk $277
32. Manik79 $252
33. Wippy1313 $248
34. Byron $234
35. RecessRampage $224
36. wwonka69 $216
37. Omega_man_99 $210
38. Pushmonkey72 $208
39. Buddydank $197
40. bartonfa $180
41. 23Skidoo $176
42. Santa Clauss $170
43. Iakaris $162
43. Smokkee $162
45. cemfredmd $156
45. NumbBono $156
47. lester000 $147
48. Heffmike $145
49. brdweb $143
50. DDionysus $137
51. Patchmaster $135
52. InstantTragedy $129
53. Ganton516 $114
54. Fluxer $110
55. Gracie $94
55. Scurvydog $94
57. Shag0103 $84
58. PhinCity $80
58. jeciimd $80
60. maf212 $78
61. Alceste $71
61. dbirider $71
63. Easycure $67
64. Rake Feeder $53

Maybe tonight will be the night that you finally enter the moneyboard! Come out and play and let's find out.

Now in some other, more ranty poker-related news, I was thinking this weekend about where my poker bankroll currently resides. And then a question occurred to me. When the fuck is Neteller going to follow through with its fucking plan and let me go to their website -- as if I should have to do this again, having already registered and received a confirmation for my withdrawal many months ago now -- and re-request my fucking money back from that little segregated "trust" account they claim to have set up to house my funds specifically? They got all this positive press from the announcement back in early June about people being able to get their money back soon, and now here I am going on the middle of July, and still not a fucking peep. Dear Neteller: On behalf of all of us in the poker blogging community, give us our fucking money back and do it NOW!!!

And while I'm on the topic of rant-worthy poker-related moves, did you all out there happen to catch the David Singer interview, and just hear about the whole David Singer incident, at the WSOP Main Event? I originally found it on Pauly's top-notch one-of-a-kind WSOP coverage here, and if you haven't read it I encourage you to do so. Now I'm sure others out there will have different opinions on this issue than I do, but what can I say. I have been out in Vegas during, and have actually played in the Rio in both of, the last two World Series of Poker tournaments. I've heard the announcements, I've seen a million guys' cell phones ringing during WSOP tournaments there. David Singer's complaint essentially comes down to moving allin on Day 1 with just a primary draw -- at a time when he still had 9800 chips so there was no extreme urgency or anything -- and then getting called by (and eventually losing to) a guy with top pair whose cell phone buzzed during the hand. The player took a quick look at his phone, pushed one button (obviously silencing or diverting the call since he was playing at the poker table at the time), and then that was it. David Singer, who was eliminated on the hand with his, if I may say it, idiotic move for Day 1 of the WSOP with just 8 outs working for him, now contends that since this player "touched" his phone at all during a live hand, that his hand must be dead, and therefore the player must fold to David Singer's allin push with just a primary draw. And again, the guy did not answer his phone. He wasn't texting with anybody. His phone buzzed, he pushed a button to silence it so he could keep playing his hand. Now Singer wants his hand to have been declared dead. In a particularly brilliant suggestion, Singer has asked for the overall director of the WSOP at Harrah's to either refund his $10,000 buyin, or preferably, to simply allow Singer to play again on one of the Main Event's other later Day 1's. So now he wants to get two entries into the WSOP Main Event? I love it. All because a guy didn't answer his cell phone when it rang. Imagine what Singer would be entitled to if the guy actually did answer that phone then! Maybe a lifetime exemption from having to buy in to the Main Event ever again in his lifetime? Maybe a refund of his buyin, plus the cash that was set to be awarded to the bottom 10 cashers in this year's tournament? What a fucknut. And as is often the case with some of these superwusses in the poker world, I truly hope that the most shit that David Singer gets for this loser move is from his own colleagues, the poker tournament pros and grinders who are out there with him every week trying to find their way to, or find their way back, to a major poker championship. Personally I find it laughable what Singer is complaining about, and as always pokernews did a great job covering the event, and Tiffany Michelle kicked some serious ass in getting the story in the interview with him.

OK now that the public service announcements are done for the day, check out this screenshot I've been wanting to share with you for some time, but I've just been waiting for the right moment. I think now is finally that right time:



Go click on that link and make sure you take in what I'm showing you here. These are my stats on poker tracker, for the lifetime that I have used the product, which is about 3 months and around 10,000 hands of cash game play at 9 different levels overall. You can see there, I have been dealt pocket Aces precisely 30 times.

And I have won with them all 30 times.

Yep, you read that right. I have been dealt AA in cash games since I got my poker tracker 30 times, and I've gone on to win that hand all 30 times. 30 for 30 with pocket Aces. 30 for effin 30 guys. Forget having 'em cracked for a minute. I haven't even folded without going to showdown because I found 5 raise-callers preflop and then the flop came down TJQ all-soooted or anything. I've won the hand every single time I've found pocket Aces since I've started using poker tracker, and if you read here then you know that's going on 3 months now.

And don't get me wrong, I am fully aware that the mere act of posting this graphic here will immediately mean the certain death of this streak in my cash play. I relish that too. Bring it. I'm like Cal Ripken at this point. It's gone on so long over so many pocket Aces hands that every time I see 'em at this point, it's like "Is this the time my streak comes to an end?" "Is today Jimmy Shaker day?" It's become too much. So I know the poker gods will not let this brazen posting go unrewarded. So the least you can do is enjoy it for now, while the beatiful streak is alive and kicking at 30, knowing that no matter how horrible of a streak any of you are going on right now with your big cards -- remember for example that streak I had of AA losing to KK allin preflop, just to remind you of how low it's been for me as detailed right here on the blog -- that it can and will, eventually turn itself around. And don't get me wrong, I am playing those AA hands just right, all of them, and I haven't sucked out once in those 30 hands when I've won. I'm raising and reraising preflop and taking many of them down without a fight as a result, which is fine. But take a look at my average pot won with the Aces: over $83. $83. Over 20 big bets at 400 nl, and over 40 big bets at 200 nl, and even more BBs at the lower limits reserved for blogger games. It averages out to nearly 11 big bets per hand. 11 big bets moved to my stack every time I get pocket Aces dealt to me, and I've won 30 out of 30 times so far. Read that n weep, Aces Man!

Hey I heard a few rumblings this weekend about some fucking fun-sounding cash games at the donkey parlor known as the MGM poker room out in Vegas including some of my personal favorites Chad, Lucko, Fuel and superstoner, who got all together to donk it up at the 1-2 tables over the weekend while the guys are in town waiting for their respective WSOP Main Event performances to begin. I know that Chad and Lucko utterly killed the games, each requiring extra chip racks just to cash out of there in one trip, but more than that, I just think how much I would have loved, loved to have been out there to see that game. Sheeeeit, forget seeing the game. I wish I could have been playing in that game. Talk about a loose aggro donkfest for the ages with that crowd. Do any of them even know how to fold before the flop (or in some cases, on the flop)? Dam does that sound fun. My homegame this weekend was a blast -- see a later post this week on the topic -- but I don't know that it can hold a candle to that much aggrodonkery all congregating at the same low-stakes live cash table at the same time. Kudos to all you guys who are in the Main Event and best of luck to you all, and really to anyone who lives in Vegas or who has their life set up so they can get out there a few times a year without too much trouble. You are all better men (and women) than I am, and I salute you.

Before I go today and resume this little thing I like to call my job, I wanted to post about the biggest cash hand I was involved in since my last post, which actually occurred sometime on Thursday or Friday night when I logged in for a little cash game action on full tilt for a relatively short session during some down time at the beach. There were a couple of haters bloggers on the rail who actually saw this hand go down live, so to those of you who were there I ask respectfully that you do not give away what you know about the hand, though I don't mind if you comment without giving away any knowledge you have. But I'm going to present to you the story of this cash hand, which occurred at the 1-2 6-max nlh tables on full tilt, and I would like you to rate for me the play of the three players involved, from who played this hand the best to who played it the worst.

So here's the setup. As I mentioned this is 1-2 nlh, 6-max table on full tilt. You are observing the table when you see the following hand go down. The blinds of $1 and $2 are posted, and then utg puts in a standard pot-raise to $7. Utg+1 responds by reraising to $24. the cutoff in the next seat decides to call the $24 reraise cold. The button and the blinds all fold, and action is to the utg player, who has to call $17 into a pot that already contains $58. He mulls for a few seconds and then makes the call as well, so we see a flop three-handed with $75 in the pot.

The flop comes down 876 with two diamonds. The utg player leads out for $66 into the $75 pot. Utg+1 thinks for a few seconds and then moves allin over the top for his last $150.

The cutoff instantly pushes allin himself, for a total of about $180, once again bringing the action back to the utg player who has now led out and been raised and seen that raise called behind him on both streets. He is facing an allin call of his last $105 or so into the pot, which now contains $471. Once again utg mulls for a short time, and then he pushes the rest of his stack in as well, so the three players flip up their cards. This is what it looked like:



In the above graph, the utg player was the guy in the middle with the sooted JackAce, and utg+1 had the pocket Aces. The cutoff had pocket 5s.

Now my question for you is, what do you think of how this hand was played by all three players? Who do you think played it the best, and who played it the worst in your view? What would you change with how each of these guys played out the hand?

One other bonus question: check out that screenshot above again, and try to estimate what you think the likely odds for each of the three players was of winning the hand in a showdown since everyone was already allin at this point in the hand. When you have your estimates, if you want to see the actual odds for each hand, click here to see how close you were.

Anyways I am really interested in everyone's opinions on this hand in particular, and I suspect there will be some varied opinions of at least one or two of the players' strategies with the hand. I can also tell you how it ended up if anyone is interested after we discuss it a bit here first.

OK so I'm going to end this here for today. Once again I am thrilled to be back at the blog after a few much-needed days away (from this job, anyways), and as promised I will have lots more pokery content coming for you later in the week as well just like I have gotten used to spewing out daily for the past couple of years. Until then, best of luck and I'll see you tonight for Mondays at the Hoy on full tilt!

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21 Comments:

Blogger Irongirl01 said...

Welcome back Hoy!! I would have loved to have made it down to the city for the Home Game but its three hours down and back (at least).

As for Neteller, they have been sticking to the dates pretty well for their announcements. My guess is our magic day is July 13th 2007 (this Friday) which was the date they mentioned in June

9:53 PM  
Blogger columbo (at eifco dot org) said...

Q&A: ok, I follow the action pre-flop. I can buy all of it. But Post-flop, HOW THE F DOES THE PRESTO JUSTIFY THAT SHOVE/CALL?!

10:39 PM  
Blogger lightning36 said...

You have to let us know your secret on the pocket Aces. Last time I had them, I was up against a chaser who hit a gutshot on the turn. Believe me, he did not have the pot odds to call. Makes you want to cry sometimes ...

10:40 PM  
Blogger 2dollarjack said...

Is it too tight of a selection to say that with little read on the other players, that the cutoff shouldn't have seen the flop in the first place?

The player with the aces played as commonly preferred, so I have no problem, as did JackAce, who called seeing the pot-odds, possibly thinking he was up against two pocket pairs, with the exception of aces? <-- is it reasonable to say this?

Post-flop, AJ was presumably taking a stab whilst also probing the strength of the other hands, whilst the aces player was doing the general "protect aces at all cost" defensive play.

Presto...mmmm, unless they misread their 5s for 8s, they are a deadset joke. I'm happy to play them when the cards are flowing, personally, but I seem to often give them too much credit with unfortunate lay-downs.

AJ's call was a given with two players all-in, I believe.

10:55 PM  
Blogger pokerpeaker said...

AA - I think he played it fine. He re-raised the bet, and by a decent amount, I believe.
He also was right to shove, I believe, given that he could win the hand right there, he probably has the best hand despite the scary flop, and he's not giving the guy odds to draw.
A,J - I don't like it. Yes, he had good odds to call the re-raise, but with A,J, you're dominated by a lot of hands, especially given that action. He's managed to put a lot of money in with a 36 percent draw. In the long run, he'll lose a lot of money, even if he won this time.
5,5 - Horrible call. He has no idea how the player behind him is going to respond to the re-raise, and he must know that the only way his hand improves is by flopping a set. Yes, if he flops a set, he probably gets paid off big, so if he's last to act on the raise, I don't mind the call. And once again, he's put a huge sum of money in on a draw, another great way to lose money in the long run.
And yes, I know this is Presto, and despite that, I still fold.

11:38 PM  
Blogger Alan aka RecessRampage said...

Just to clarify, UTG was AJ, UTG+1 was AA, and the CO was 55 right?

Based on that, preflop, I don't have a problem with anyone's actions. The only questionable one is the smooth call by the cutoff but with two other players in there, I guess there's enough money behind to justify the call.

On the flop, AJ bets out, following through on his preflop action/semi bluff with the nut flush draw. Fine. AA raises all in, going with the read that he is still ahead. CO is an idiot for calling with 55 but you see that often on a 1-2NL 6max... esp over the weekends... I mean with that much action pre and post flop, only way he should be doing that is if he hit a set.

However, following the action, by the time it came back to AJs, it's a must call. The pot is giving him almost 5:1 and considering he's got a MINIMUM of 9 outs (he doesn't know that the aces aren't outs so he could even think he's got 12 outs), he's gotta call.

I don't know who played the hand best but I know that the 55 is a fool. But those are also players you want at the table... underpair and drawing to the sucker end of the straight on a possible flush board... lol...

The only thing I was actually surprised with was that AJs was not the favorite after the flop. I know AA and AJ were close. I actually thought AJ would be about 40% and AA be slightly less than that. Oh well, close enough for me for the purposes of doing the calculation on the table...

The one thing I would have done different is that if I had AJs (UTG), I'm not sure that I woulda fired out a bet there. With the preflop action, it's clear that one of the two behind me has a pocket pair and the flop looks very much like a board where one could trip up. I guess I may have checked to see what the action would look like. But that's because I'm not crazy about committing myself on a draw... call me tighty mctight... :)

11:52 PM  
Blogger Alan aka RecessRampage said...

Oh in the midst of all that comment, I forgot to add... I've had PT since the beginning of 2006. Off the top of my head, I think my aces have won 85-90% of the time. I know so many people that say aces never win but that's by far my biggest money maker. Keep that streak alive!

PS. Hoy, any bounty if we bust your aces during the MATH??? :)

11:54 PM  
Blogger Astin said...

3 months, and you've only seen AA 30 times? Sheesh. I see 30 pocket aces before breakfast! :)

Guess I need to get me PT.

Anyway, the hand. Pre-flop, I've got no problem. Maybe presto should have folded but maybe he reads Fuel. AJd has to call with those odds 6-handed.

Post-flop, there is no way 55 should push there. Heads-up, MAYBE he puts someone on a draw, but 3-way with just an OESD on a flush-drawing board, facing a bet, and all-in raise? That only gives him 7 outs at best (6 for the OESD without diamonds, and the 1 non-diamond 5) AJd again is forced to call with the odds facing him. No issue there. He has at least 9 outs before he sees the cards (flush draw), and maybe thinks the A is good for 3 more against a smaller overpair. So potentially 12 outs twice with better than 4.5:1 odds. I think if presto doesn't push, AJd is forced to think about folding at least.

So in short - preflop, no issues. Postflop - presto screws it up for AA to the tune of almost 22% with a bad move.

12:31 AM  
Blogger bayne_s said...

If 55 wasn't Fuel he played hand poorly.

Since we all know AJ is the nutz on FullTilt especiaaly if Holding against Hoy then his play his fine

12:31 AM  
Blogger Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

Ha Alan that's a good idea, but to be clear my streak is only applicable to my cash game play. I'm pretty sure I've had Aces cracked or had to fold them outright on at least a couple of occasions recently in tournament play, blonkament or otherwise. So I guess no Aces bounty tonight. But I should have thought of that. I'll get up a good bounty next week if I think of anything good.

12:44 AM  
Blogger smokkee said...

hoy,

i'm sure you remember i was on the rail during this hand so i won't spoil it for everyone else.

but, the flop is not accurate (haha!). the guy with 55 flopped a set of 5's. i think the board was 5-7-8 with two diamonds.

recheck your HH.

1:53 AM  
Blogger jamyhawk said...

I agree the 55 shove is terrible. The only thing I can imagine is that they thought they could isolate with a shove and then draw out if they are up against an overpair? No way they thought they were ahead, right?

And I would have bet out with the AJ to find out where I am at. With the re-raise all-in from AA, I would normally fold, but the 55 shove makes the pot odds too good to fold.

The AA plays it right to chase out any draws they can, and possibly take down the pot right there. They could be up against set, worst case, as the pre-flop raises should have ruled out anyone staying with 910.

IMO
55:Terrible play
AJ:OK play
AA:Good play

Now tell us that the Presto took it down...

2:26 AM  
Blogger Chad C said...

30 for 30 with AA, what kind of luckbox crap is that? I am 0-5 I think the last 5 times I got it. Once potentially costing me $54K at Bellagio this weekend! I really hate you lucksack!!!

2:59 AM  
Blogger Blinders said...

When are you going to post a hammer screenshot from tracker? I am waiting. Lol on the AA streak post. You are sooooo dead now. The poker gods are avid poker blog readers. This will not slip by unnoticed.

3:54 AM  
Blogger Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

Smokkee you are not correct. The 55 guy called the allin with just 55 on a 678 board. I have all the data right here at my fingertips.

And isn't anyone going to point out that this is a terrible flop for AA? Totally coordinated, two-suited flop, against two guys who called raises for $24 preflop and then utg who led out big on the flop as well? Come on people.

4:56 AM  
Blogger Astin said...

Yah, it's a bad flop for AA, but it's not a terrible one. With the action pre-flop, there's no way AA can put 55 on 9T (MAYBE you can suited) or 45, although AJ is a crapshoot from everyone else's perspective. The flush draw isn't fun, but it's still just a draw, hence the big re-raise from AA to scare out the draws. It obviously didn't work.

If I'm AA, now I'm sweating the turn and river hard.

8:37 PM  
Blogger WildDuces234 said...

I get AA 29 Percent, and I would have repopped when I got raised to 75--
J A (d's) I put at 37%

55 28% 5 dimonds is no good, and 6 outs on the st8 draw.

I agree w/ hoy, AA is thinking he might be drawing dead...

8:45 PM  
Blogger Alan aka RecessRampage said...

Hoy,
I sort of agree with the fact that it's a bad flop for AA. But considering the preflop action, it's hard to put someone with a hand that hit that board hard except for trips. And the main person I am worried about is the one behind me. UTG raises and UTG+1 reraises so UTG calls. Without knowing anything about UTG, I don't automatically think that the guy would play suited connectors this way. Of course, there are people who would. Like me... or Fuel... or maybe even you (in other words, raise from UTG with 9-10, reraise, but another caller justifies the call). But again, the UTG could totally be making a play with AK or any pocket pair like TT, JJ. The "big bet" on the flop is not that big considering the pot size. I don't know.

I could see AA being stacked here (without knowing the other two holdings) but I don't think it's a bad play the way he played it.

11:04 PM  
Blogger 2dollarjack said...

I get this real weird feeling that AA will hold up here. I think Hoy has either jinxed him or gave us a huge clue from the fact that 30 AA's have held up in a row!

12:04 AM  
Blogger pokerpeaker said...

Hoy, I"m with others, considering the preflop action not a whole lot matches the board even if it is terrible. If I raise with A-A and do not get re-raised and get three callers and then face terrible action on the flop that's a completely different story.

12:47 AM  
Blogger Alan aka RecessRampage said...

To add to Pokerpeaker's point, it would be different if you switch positions with AA and 55. In other words, if AA was in the cutoff and preflop, reraise, UTG and UTG+1 calls. Flop, UTG bets, UTG+1 shoves, I fold AA there from the cutoff. It's clear I'm beat, though it would turn out that at that point, I wasn't beat but I wasn't the favorite either. In other words, I'm only 40% to win the hand. And that's based on knowing what they have. I'd have to assume that one of them tripped up (will never have guessed underpair to the board with a OESD). But given the actual position that this happened, I stick with my initial assessment.

2:55 AM  

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