Tuesday, September 18, 2007

MATH Recap and 3-Suited Flop Hand Continued

Now this is really getting redickulous. Somehow this week, RaisingCayne managed to not only add a 6th final table in 7 appearances this year in the MATH to his resume, but he actually won the thing outright again, his 3rd overall MATH win again in just 7 lifetime events. Wow. Even more amazing to me is that I left the pc once I watched Columbo get eliminated on a short stack in 6th place, thereby ensuring that none of the cashers this week would threaten the three-headed hydra atop the 2007 MATH moneyboard, at a time whem wormmsu, playing in just his second ever MATH, had about 40k in chips and Cayne was down to I think 5 or 6k, and in last of the 6 remaining players. So I didn't see how it all went down, but all I know is when I logged in this morning, Cayne had done it again. I read on Cayne's blog about a huge suckout ITM at the final table in a hand that he effed up against emptyman so it seems there was some more donkery to be had for Cayne after I signed off, but let's be honest. This guy has final tabled the MATH 6 times in 7 tries, he came in 2nd once and he's won it outright three times. Obviously he is doing something right.

In the end, with 24 runners on the night and the top 3 finishers splitting the $576 prize pool, third place and $115.20 goes to IslandBum1 who recorded his first MATH cash since winning one of the early MATH tournaments involved in the Battle of the Blogger Tournaments this past spring. Ending in second place, after the big suckout referred to above, was emptyman who won $172.80 for his efforts, and as I mentioned, this week's big winner once again was RaisingCayne, who won the $288 first prize for his continued domination of the event I once reigned supreme over.

And here is the updated 2007 MATH moneyboard, taking into account this week's Mondays at the Hoy tournament:

1. Bayne_s $1175
2. Columbo $1168
3. Hoyazo $1162
4. RaisingCayne $1110
5. Pirate Wes $792
6. VinNay $775
7. cmitch $774
8. Iggy $745
9. NewinNov $677
10. Lucko21 $665
11. Waffles $650
12. IslandBum1 $642
13. Astin $616
14. Tripjax $561
15. Julius Goat $507
16. bartonf $492
16. mtnrider81 $492
18. PokerBrian322 $490
19. Chad $485
20. scots_chris $474
21. Emptyman $461
22. Fuel55 $458
23. Mike_Maloney $456
24. RecessRampage $434
25. Otis $429
26. Surflexus $402
26. Miami Don $402
28. jeciimd $382
28. Jordan $382
30. Blinders $379
31. lightning36 $371
32. ChapelncHill $353
33. Zeem $330
34. LJ $326
35. OMGitsPokerFool $324
36. oossuuu754 $312
37. leftylu $295
38. Wigginx $288
39. ScottMc $282
40. Fishy McDonk $277
41. Irongirl $252
41. Manik79 $252
43. Wippy1313 $248
44. swimmom95 $245
45. Byron $234
46. wwonka69 $216
47. Omega_man_99 $210
48. katiemother $209
49. Pushmonkey72 $208
50. Buddydank $197
51. Gary Cox 194
52. 23Skidoo $176
53. Santa Clauss $170
54. Iakaris $162
54. Smokkee $162
56. cemfredmd $156
56. NumbBono $156
58. lester000 $147
59. Heffmike $145
60. brdweb $143
61. Mookie $137
61. DDionysus $137
63. Patchmaster $135
64. InstantTragedy $129
65. Ganton516 $114
66. Fluxer $110
67. hoops15mt $95
68. Gracie $94
68. Scurvydog $94
70. wormmsu $91
71. Shag0103 $84
72. crazdgamer $82
73. PhinCity $80
74. maf212 $78
75. Alceste $71
76. dbirider $71
77. Easycure $67
78. Rake Feeder $53

So for the second straight week, our three cashers have already previously cashed in the MATH this year, leaving our total number of Hoy cashers on the year at 78 different players. Emptyman climbed up to 21st on the list with his second place finish this week, while IslandBum used his third place cash to jump to 11th, and Cayne remains in 4th place while adding another $288 to his MATH haul from just the past couple of months. The win leaves Cayne as the fourth member of the $1100 club in the MATH this year, and just $65 away from Bayne who still leads after the three of us at the top all failed to cash for at least the fourth straight Mondays at the Hoy tournament. The top of the board is fast becoming anyone's to grab hold of, and if Cayne has shown us anything it's that you could start playing the MATH at any time and still have an impact that is felt in just a short period of time. Way to go Cayne, and I can only hope I'm at your starting table next Monday night in the next MATH.

So, back to yesterday's hand analysis question. To recap, I checked my option out of the big blind with K9s and 4 limpers in the pot ahead of me, and the flop came down KT6 all suited, not in my suit. The small blind checked to me, and I asked how you would be apt to play this hand on the flop:

As usual there were a lot of well-thought-out comments. As a general statement, I am definitely in agreement with the majority of the commenters about betting out somewhere near the size of the pot on a flop with lots of potential draws like this flop has. Mostly everyone seems to like either betting out "to see where I'm at", or check-folding. Personally, I'm not a fan of either, in this specific case. In general, again, give me a flop like KQx with 2 diamonds or something, and I would be likely to do exactly what most of the commenters suggested, and bet out to protect my top pair hand. But, in particular on a three-suited flop, there is almost always going to be at least a couple of guys who are going to call me with their shit flush draws on this flop. Always. Because anyone with any spade can think they can win this pot all of a sudden. So in these all-suited flop situations specifically, I tend to check here. I actually have absolutely no reason to assume that my top pair is behind here; most likely, I'm figuring, I actually have the best hand right now. But with any reasonable-sized bet, I have in my mind basically no chance of eliminating any more than two of the other four players still in the pot, and if any spade falls on the turn, then I will be immediately sacrificing the bet I just made on the flop. So, unlike other draw-heavy flops where I generally like to bet out with a hand like top pair, in this situation of a surprise all-suited flop, I often like to check, with the intention of calling anything but an overbet from another player, and with the intention of check-folding the turn if another spade comes, or potentially betting out on the turn if a non-spade card hits the board.

So I checked it here. The next two players checked behind me as well, but then the middle position guy bet out 90 chips into the 150-chip pot, and the small blind folded ahead of me, bringing the action to me:

As I mentioned above, I checked with the hope of someone on a draw or a middle-pair-top-kicker kind of hand, with the intention of trying to see a turn card as cheaply as possible. So I called the bet, more or less indifferent to the other players behind me calling, although with such a weak top-pair hand, folding them is probably a better move for me than having them stick around to try to suck out on me.

In the end, just the player to my immediate left also called the 90-chip bet, at that point into a 330-chip pot, and everyone else folded. Three-handed, we saw a turn card of an offsuit 7. With the small blind out of the hand, action was to me.

Now what do you do here? The turn card is more or less raggy garbage, and there is now 330 chips in the pot. I still have K9 on a K6T7 board with 3 spades all on the flop. Do I bet out now to again protect my top pair hand and find out where I'm at? How much in relation to the 420 chips in the pot would you bet, with 1360 total chips in my stack? Or do I check here? Anybody looking to check-raise in this spot? How about the check-folders out there?

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Blogger bayne_s said...

Has anyone else pointed out you keep saying you have K9 and the screenshot shows you having KQ?

I am still playing small ball as I have picked up a gutshot against a possible made flush.

1:57 AM  
Blogger Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

Hmmmm. Strangely Bayne, no one has yet pointed that out to me.

2:03 AM  
Blogger stlphily said...

I don't know, ahhhh, I have no idea what to do.
Also, looks like k-9 to me.

2:37 AM  
Blogger jamyhawk said...

First of all. LMAO at Bayne's comment.

I don't like the check call here or the check fold. I think you have to get some more information. I would hope you have some idea of how your opponents have been playing. Surely, the two to your left have draws. What the original bettor has depends on your read. Has he been stealing pots?

A $200 bet would let me know if he has something (assuming 330 in the pot - not the 420 you said latter), or could take it down now, which would make me very happy. If he re-raises, I fold 90% of the time (again depending on how I read he has been playing), but may call a min re-raise to make sure he is not trying to steal.

2:40 AM  
Blogger Steven said...

Has anyone pointed out to bayne that he needs glasses?

I'm hating this hand more and more. At this point I'm checking, hoping to see another card cheaply. It wont take much for me to let this go.

2:58 AM  
Blogger RaisingCayne said...

First, thanks for the accolades! My recent MATH performance has just been redickulous, I agree. Sorry to hear you stopped viewing when I was 5th out of the last five with a short stack, as that's right when I really felt I started turning it on with appropriate aggression. And regarding my suckout against emptyman... in my defense, it was actually WAY before 'in the money' that this occurred. I did not have any undeserved luckbox moments at the final table, and was very proud of my play from the last 15 or so on down. The suckout chipped me up from within the bottom half to within the top half when there was about 16 or so remaining.

I'm giddy of getting within striking distance of Bayne in 1st place on the yearly leaderboard! As always, I'll be lookin' forward to next week! I'm feeling invincible in this thing, someone has got to humble me! :-) See you next week!

Regarding the hand you present: IF I decided to check that flop, and call the 90 chip bet prior to seeing the off suit rag turn card... then I'm also check-calling the turn here too myself. Given the same logic you discuss for not betting out on the flop, there's still too much reason to conclude that a pot bet on the turn would also still be called by one of the two remaining villains. I check after seeing the 7 come on the turn, with the intention of calling up to ~360 chip bet. Folding to any raise higher. I put villain on your direct left on a big spade draw, given his check-calling nature. And I put the villain that bet the flop on at least a pair of tens, but am really not able to define his range yet at all. And it is not at all worth the risk just to attempt to get him to define his hand! And with a big bet not being likely to get out a big spade draw, I don't see much sense in trying to bet out or checkraise here. And I'd even completely understand the simple check-fold here, given the tournament is still so early, and you've still got 1360 of your starting 1500. ... I'll look forward to hearing your thoughts on this next phase in the hand. Although... in my mind, I already took down 150 chips with my 100 chip bet on the flop. :-)

3:03 AM  
Blogger Mike Maloney said...

Well, if we're check-calling the flop, then we're going under the assumption that our pair is good. Otherwise, why are we even in the hand, right? So the 7 has done nothing to make us think otherwise, and now there's a gutshot on the board for us.

Checking seems like a waste here, because it doesn't help us define anyone's hand. The guy to our left seems to be on a draw. I'd bet about 275, and fold to any raisers. That way you're drawing hands can't call (Unless they're on a huge draw), and you aren't letting two other people see a free river card.

3:23 AM  
Blogger emptyman said...

I think we have enough information to make a play at this pot now, with likely the best hand.

420 in the pot, gotta bet at least 300, I like 360. Have to put other 2 players on a spade or 1 pair. If they had flush, set, or 2 pair, think they would move on the flop given a chance to check-raise.

A raise means fold. A call probably means A or Q of spades or 1 pair, but could mean made flush, even the nut flush. Really would like to see fold/fold.

All that being said, I still hate where we are, now 1/3 of our stack in with K9 on a very dangerous flop early in a donkfest. 90 chips by itself was maybe affordable, but OOP and dangerous board where we could easily be drawing dead, I still feel like we called hoping to improve.

3:55 AM  
Blogger WillWonka said...

I believe I'm betting out here as well. I was in the check fold camp on the flop; but the flop bet was low enough to see another card.

Now the turn bet amount is the big deal here as we need to convince Mr Flop Better that we are good. I'm thinking somewhere a little below pot sized.

We definitely need to Mr Spade Draw pay for his draw and then put the pressure on Mr Flop Better. If he raises, gotta lay her down.

4:15 AM  
Blogger bayne_s said...

Wow full screen it is K9.

I may have found recent leak in my game.

4:31 AM  
Blogger Julius_Goat said...

Online screenshots are rigged.

Since we've decided to play this hand past the flop, I'm either check-folding or pushing pretty hard at this. Either we are dominated or not, but the fact that only one card is coming is a factor.

We almost certainly know we have some sooted donks here. Sooted donks often lose heart after the turn. If they've flopped the flush, there's not much we can do. If they've got us outkicked or 2 paired, again not much we can do.

You played it the way you played it to minimize your losses if the 4-flush filled. You called b/c your assumption is that you were ahead. The turn is a blank. Stick with your read and reap the pot with a big bet. I'd say at least 3/4 pot, often full pot. If you get a call, you're done with the hand and know why K9s is a bastard for sure.

5:03 AM  
Blogger Dr Zen said...

Check and keep the pot small. I only have TPmehK.

The fuckers never fold unless you put a ton of chips into the pot. They always think they have implied odds. You know they don't because you know what you have, and that you won't put any more chips in if another spade comes. But they don't. And many of them wouldn't care if they did. They'd call anyway because they have never laid down a flush draw for less than all their chips in their life, and sometimes not even then. If both have a high spade, there's every chance one will put me in if I bet. I don't want to call off my stack with this hand and then see that no, the guy did not have a high spade, he had KT and was waiting for the turn. Heads up, I might feel differently.

6:10 AM  
Blogger RaisingCayne said...

LOL at Bayne finding the leak in his game! No wonder he hasn't pulled away on the MATH leaderboard yet... he's blind!

7:04 AM  
Blogger Mike Maloney said...

Sorry, didn't realize there was 420 in the pot, thought it was like 350. In that case I'd bet out about 350-375 or so.

10:40 AM  
Blogger columbo (at eifco dot org) said...

ok, let me admit something right now. I did not comment on part 1 because I play this exactly like Hoyazo does, but did not want to take any guff for it. On the all spade flop with Top Pair, I want to check, not because I fear being behind, but rather to keep the pot small. I do this to "set up" my turn play when a non-spade falls.

Now, when the non-spade falls on the turn, the only bet here is a pot sized bet. I might get called by a big spade, but if I am he is a big dog. No one else should call unless I am in trouble (like against two pair).

The nice thing about the all spade flop is that you are not expecting to get re-raiesd on your leading bets. You expect call or fold. So you can control the pot size from around the front.

If you do get a caller of the pot size bet, then you must really think about your river lead. Maybe a blocking bet, maybe give it up, depending on the opponent.

8:25 PM  
Blogger SubZero said...

A very interesting situation. The facts as I would see them:
1. You have a weak made hand with no draw to the nuts.
2. You shouldn't worry about an opponent with a set just now: they usually won't want to bet without a boat, as with the multiway pot they will be petrified that someone has a made flush and will raise allin. A set should be checking or calling anything less than an pot bet.
3. The flop play indicates that you have either a made hand, or a strong draw. If you had a weak made hand, you would normally bet here to drive out draws.With a strong draw on this scary flop, a check-call would be in order. If you had the nuts, you might aim to check-raise.
I think in this case you need to try and minimise the field and drive out draws, so you should represent a weak made hand and fire a roughly pot sized bet. This bet should either elicit a fold from your opponent on the left (giving up his draw) and then a call or raise from the button, or get a call (button folds) or a raise from the left (button folds or raises). Either way, you have eliminated an opponent or eliminated doubt on where you stand with your TP, and you can see the river or get out as necessary.

9:03 PM  
Blogger pokerpeaker said...

OK, it's the turn, there are only two other players, the chances of them having a flush is small at this point, but they no doubt have some sort of draw. So I bet the pot. If I get raised in this situation I fold, but let's make them pay for their draws. I think the pot is worth fighting for here, just not to the death, obviously. I plan on checking the river and hoping no one bets big.

10:23 PM  

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