Tuesday, July 21, 2009

Why Not Halladay?

Man, as a fan of Your World Champion Philadelphia Phillies, this story is really driving me crazy today. Word out of Sports Illustrated is that the Phils' unwillingness to include top pitching prospect Kyle Drabek (son of former Pirates pitching great Doug Drabek) appears to be the stumbling block to getting the trade deal done to bring Roy Halladay to Chilladelphia. The relevant portions of the article are as follows:

"'If Philly agrees to surrender Drabek', one competing executive said, 'they might get [Halladay] real quick'....Beyond that, a package of outfielding prospect Michael Taylor (recently promoted to Triple A in what looks like an obvious showcase), shortstop Jason Donald and pitcher Carlos Carrasco is, according to another AL executive, woefully short....Phillies GM Ruben Amaro suggested 10 days ago Drabek may be untouchable, though more recently he's tempered that remark slightly to say he won't publicly disclose which prospects they might consider trading."

Nowhere in the article is the name of third-year Phillies pitcher J.A. Happ even mentioned, Happ of the 7-0 record, 2.68 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in his 11 starts and 94 total innings this season. And Happ's complete lack of mention in the article by SI leads me to believe that the Phils are not being pushed to include both him and Drabek in a deal with the Jays. Which begs the question: Why the funk are the Phillies not doing this deal?

Think about it. This is Roy Halladay here. This isn't Livan Hernandez or Pedro frickin Martinez. It's Roy Halladay, who just the other night pitched his 39th complete game since 2003, Halladay who has a 2.73 ERA and a WHIP of 1.07 in 18 starts this year. This is, more or less, the best a pitcher can be in the major leagues. I mean, he's doing it all -- striking guys out, keeping guys from scoring, keeping runners off the bases, not giving up home runs, winning, pitching deep into games, you name it and Roy Halladay does it. Essentially, the best we could ever hope for from Doug Drabek's kid would be for him to somehow, some day, by some incredible miracle, be as good as Roy Halladay has been for even just one or two seasons. Am I not right about that?

So we're going to turn down the chance to have Cole Hamels, J.A. Happ and Roy Halladay anchor this staff for the next several years, all because of some prospect who might someday be able in the most optimistic possible outcome to be as good as Halladay already currently is? Sorry but I just do not follow that logic.

Now, if it turns out that Happ is an essential part of the deal along with mini-Drabek, then that changes everything. And I'm not inside those discussions so I don't know what's actually been offered and promised. Giving up Happ to get Halladay certainly represents better aggregate skill overall, but we're also taking on a 15-mill-a-year guy -- soon to be 20-25 million I am sure -- in exchange for someone making the $405,00 salary Happ is making here in 2009 and beyond, and whose best years should still be well ahead of him. And we would have to throw in our top young pitching prospect as well? That changes the balance significantly, and in fact with how well Happ has been throwing the ball just now, I'm not sure I would do that deal. But if we get to keep Happ in the deal, then how do we possibly justify not giving up our top pitching prospect (I would even give up our top two pitching prospects in the deal, for sure) in exchange for getting Roy Halladay? Think again of the triumvirate of Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and J.A. Happ. Those guys could be good, and be good together, for another five years at least. Those three and me would probably be a good enough rotation to win most playoff series. With the couple key young spots we already have at starting pitcher, how could we possibly justify not giving up our best one or two pitching prospects to nab the biggest trade booty in years?

I mean seriously, you tell me, you Phillies fans out there: doesn't Roy Halladay sound like an absolute lock for back to back world championship parades down Broad Street?

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11 Comments:

Blogger 1Queens Up1 said...

The guy seems to be a stud, only on the DL a few times since 04 (including a broken leg from a line drive and an appendectomy) and hes only 32, at least 3 more good years left in him.
I'm all for it if we don't give up Happ.

9:38 PM  
Blogger ElSnarfoGrande said...

J. Happ could turn into Kyle Kendrick next week, but that being said, I think keeping him out of the deal is essential. You trade prospects to get Halladay to win NOW, keeping Happ in the rotation with him is the best recipe to do that. If you trade Happ, now you weaken the back end to make the front end stronger.

I have one theory as to why the Phillies could be withholding Drabek, for now at least. It was reported early on that the Jays were not giving teams a chance to negotiate with Halladay's agent before the trade. This is obviously something the Phils would be looking to do, because if you know you can get the 3-4 year extension it makes the deal much more worth it. Maybe they are using Drabek as leverage to get this negotiation. Just a thought.

Also the closer this gets to the deadline the less they will have to give up. Halladay's value plummets next year with only one year left on his deal, the Jays will want to get this done by July 31 of this year.

10:15 PM  
Blogger Miami Don said...

Great points Hoy. When did sports become about the future of prospects and not about the already proven results of a veteran, not to mention the best starting pitcher in baseball over the last five years.

Oh right it's all about the almighty dollar and owners stuffing their pockets instead of worrying about winning.

And sorry Snarfo but I disagree with you that Toronto losing leverage by waiting to deal Halladay.

Halladay will still be sought after if it's this offseason or even if it's up to the trade deadline of next year. If no team wants to pay their asking price Toronton is better off keeping him and letting him walk as a free agent and getting two first round draft picks than they are by giving him away on the cheap.

Also any team that trades for Halladay now gets him for TWO pennant races and they get the opportunity to sign him long term and if not then they will be the ones who get the two first round picks allowing them to recoup some of the lose of trading two prospects.

Toronto is by no means desperate and shouldn't take anything other than what they are asking, which is more than fair market.

This is a no-brainer for the Phillies. I'm by no means a Philly fan but with their core offensive players locked up for the next few years and with a chance to add Halladay, the best pitcher in baseball, the Phillies could be talking about a dynasty.

10:59 PM  
Blogger 1Queens Up1 said...

Snarf: Heck Halladay could turn into Carl Pavano after the trade for all we know.

I like the sound of a Phillies dynasty and I also like this news out of NY today:

WASHINGTON -- New York Mets manager Jerry Manuel's job is safe.

Mets general manager Omar Minaya gave the vote of confidence during the fourth inning of New York's game against the Washington Nationals on Monday night. Minaya said that he recently spoke with Mets chief operating officer Jeff Wilpon, and Wilpon was supportive.

"I want you to be our general manager, and I want Jerry to be our manager," Minaya said he was told by Wilpon.

Gold Jerry, pure gold.

11:36 PM  
Blogger Shrike said...

I've blogged about this more than once, and let me just say that Don is right on the money.

-PL

11:39 PM  
Blogger corron10 said...

The sports talk radio is blowing up in Philly. Its just crazy.

I do think this is a no-brainer for the phillies, but we are still taking about the phillies here and the decision ultimately comes from upper maanagement, who still money tight bottom line guys.

If its true, that is the 4 prospect, of Taylor, Donald, Carrasco and Drabek, then you need to do it. Especially if you keep Happ. It would be almost a steal.


Lets hope this current win streak, doesnt put something in the minds of the phillies, "Hey maybe we dont need him", and get someone on the cheap.

12:23 AM  
Blogger Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

Corron -- you hit on my biggest concerns right now. #1, we are running away with the division and seem clearly superior to our competitors, so the push to acquire Halladay probably lessens somewhat. And #2, now that we already added Pedro for a "measly" million dollars, again the need to push for Halladay drops somewhat.

Both bad logic in my view, but my fears nonetheless.

12:41 AM  
Blogger ElSnarfoGrande said...

Don,

My only point was that if you look at what the Twins and Indians got for Santana and Sabathia (both of whom are the same caliber of pitcher) who only had one year left on the deal, it's significantly less then what the Jays are asking for and could potentially get. You're right in that the Jays can wait, but they will not get a #1 prospect like Drabek if they wait til next year. A known blue chip prospect like that is more valuable then the first round picks.

Corron,

Did you hear the reports about Myers trying to get back? This coupled with the Pedro mess could be complacency at it's finest. That would piss me off to no end. A half-legged Myers + Washed up Pedro != Halladay

1:20 AM  
Blogger corron10 said...

I heard that Myers thing. And your right Perdo+Myers does not equal Halladay.

Were talking about a guy, (Halladay), that once you put his name down on paper as a starter, you are going to win Game 1 of a best of 5 and 7 series. plain and simple.

and lets face it, with the All-Star game deciding home field advantage. Halladay can assure you "home field adavantage" for the rest of the series.

1:45 AM  
Blogger 1Queens Up1 said...

Wow I didn't hear about Myers I thought he was down in Allentown, did they cut him at some point?

1:54 AM  
Blogger Riggstad said...

I think the Phil's are being smart about this. If you look at the competition for Halladay right now, they are being extremely smart.

Some assumptions:

)Toronto needs to deal Halladay because they have no future and need prospects.
2) They have no other suitors right now other than the Phils

It was thought that Boston and the Yanks would get him but Toronto quelled that by stating that an American League team would pay a whole lot more than a National league team.

If you look at the Dodgers and the Cardinals, it's almost laughable.

The Dodgers don't have enough to trade away, and the Cardinals can't and won't be able to swallow the money.

I believe the Phil's will get this done. But I think Happ will be part of the deal with either Drabek OR Carasco and Taylor and the infielder. Not that I mind because they are stacked in the minors for once.

If they deal Happ, Drabek, and who cares who else, I'm fine with it.

Sign Halladay and you have three years of world series' coming to Philadelphia. Or at least the best possible chance for three years :)

5:33 AM  

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