Saturday, September 19, 2009

NFL Pick Five

In the future I will plan to get this post out sometime during the week, but I thought starting with Week 2 of the NFL season, I would post five picks against the spread each week, and then keep track and see how I do throughout the season. As I've mentioned previously, historically early in the season I have fared somewhat poorly, but by the middle and late stages of the year and heading into the postseason, my accuracy with NFL picks has steadily improved. Hopefully this year I can follow on to my huge run in last year's NFL post-season and keep the ball rolling starting here in Week 2.

So here is my first Pick Five of the NFL season, in no particular order:

1. Jets +3.5 at home vs. the Cheatriots. Jets could win this game outright. The Cheats looked bad until the final few minutes last week, while the Jets defense came out like gangbusters against the Texans to start the season. I think the Pats have a good shot to beat Mark Sanchez and the Jets on Sunday, but I don't expect a ton of scoring in this one and I am going with the points.

2. Saints +1 at the Eagles. Again, I think there is a good shot that the Saints win this game outright, and getting the extra point is just gravy. We're talking about Drew Brees, easily the best quarterback in the NFL over the past 17 weeks, against a depleted Philly defense with a new defensive coordinator, plus some guy named Kolb starting for the Eagles. This one could get ugly folks, and we push even if the Eagles pull out a one-point victory.

3. Dallas -3 vs the Giants. In December of course this would be a different story, but this is September and that means the Cowboys and Tony Romo will come to play this week. It's the home opener in that brand new $1.3 billion stadium in Dallas, and I do not think the home team will disappoint. Plus, the Giants continue to have a major weakness in the passing game which will also inhibit their ability to score, especially in a hostile environment like this one.

4. Miami +3 vs the Colts. I can't explain how or why Miami is going to cover on this one. But I couldn't explain it last year either while the Dolphins streaked to an 11-3 finish and won the AFC East outright. I have the Colts on a down year this year, and the Dolphins following up nicely to last season's coming-out party, and as a result I think the Dolphins have a good chance of winning this one outright. With the 3 points it's definite value in my eyes.

5. Detroit +10 vs the Vikings. Detroit sucks, obviously. Their defense is hideous, as Drew Brees and his 6 touchdowns showed last week. But they have played the Vikes tough in Detroit in their last few meetings, and with Favre you just never know when four picks and two pick 6's are on their way. I like the Vikes to win, but not by double digits.

Best of luck to everyone playing these games this week!

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