NFL Pick 5 -- Week 16

Another 1-4 week last week for my picks, which makes three crappy weeks in a row as my early-season magic appears to have disappeared here heading into the end of the NFL regular season. Last week's performance brings my total season record down to 39-31, still eight games over .500 but totally heading in the wrong direction. As it's a holiday weekend, just five quick picks for this weekend's games:

1. Baltimore Ravens +3 at Pittsburgh Steelers. Nothing complicated here. I think the Steelers are finished, it took them an absolute miracle performance to pull out a final second victory against the Packers last week, and even at home I don't see them beating a hot Ravens team by a field goal.

2. Miami Dolphins -3 vs Houston Texans. I don't love having to lay the three points here, but I'll take the team that is extremely hot during December and is playing at home with a chance to sneak into the AFC playoffs. I have a lot of respect for the Texans on offense, including Matt Schaub at qb and Andre Johnson, probably the best overall wide receiver in football over the past two years, but I'm going with the Fins to find a way to pull this one out as they have all season long since their pro-bowl quarterback went down to injury in Week 3 with the team still looking for its first win.

3. Washington Redskins +7 vs Dallas Cowboys. Yeah, I must be literally crazy to pick the Redskins + any amount after the performance they put in last week. But this Cowboys team is going to be in trouble this week after nabbing the biggest win of Wade Phillips' career in Dallas against the undefeated Saints. This team's record when they get any sniff of success speaks for itself under the current regime, and I'm not picking them to win by more than a touchdown on national tv on Sunday night.

4. Cincinnati Bengals -13.5 vs Kansas City Chiefs. Two-touchdown favorites are never fun to bet on, but the Bengals will be looking to bounce back against a terrible Chiefs team after two consecutive subpar performances for Carson Palmer, Chad Ochocinco and company. And one thing the Chiefs have shown again and again this year is that they can get beat down on hard, especially by good teams. This will be the Bengals' first game against a shitpiler team in a while and I'm expecting them to pour it on early and often.

5. St. Louis Rams +14 at Arizona Cardinals. Although this is matchup of the NFL's worst team against the defending NFC champions, the Cardinals haven't been playing particularly well over the past few weeks, whlie the Rams have been at least competitive more often than they were earlier in the year. With the Cardinals having performed far better on the road than they have at home this season, and with Steven Jackson to control the ball for the Rams and keep that potent Cardinals offense off the field to some extent, two touchdowns here seems a bit too much to take.