Coming Up For Air

Wow.

So let's recap:

1. Yes, I am still alive.

2. No, I did not throw myself off a bridge after bubbling the BBT4 Tournament of Champions last Sunday night.

3. Work has been all-encompassing this week, just about the worst it's ever been for me as far as having my life taken over by my job. Due to various conditions and circumstances, I ended up taking on a boatload of work over the past couple of weeks, the end result of which as they all came together and were suddenly due at the same time, has been me getting into my office before 7:30 in the morning, staying around 12 hours, driving home and taking just enough time to scarf down a quick dinner before jumping right back on the pc and continuing right where I left off at home. Stay up until all hours of the morning trying desperately to finish everything that needs finishing before the next day in the office, and then rinse and repeat the next day. Every day this week, I've spent more than 16 hours struggling to get through everything that needed to get done, and it's only sometime today that I've had any chance at all to come up for air.

I thought while I'm free for what is sure only to be a momentary break, I would jump on here and let everyone know what's what.

Some other thoughts to share before I dive back down into the depths:

First off, my bust from the ToC last weekend. What can I say about it. I don't like the play I made calling off the rest of my stack with AT on the QT4x board down to 5-handed in the tournament. I've gotten a bunch of emails and girly chats about the play, so for the record I am here saying that, with a little hindsight, I don't like the play I made and I think the better play would have been to fold and wait for a better spot, especially given what was at stake.

But that's not to say that I can't explain making that call. I know exactly why I made the play that I made. It really comes down to two things: Hand Ranges, and frustration.

Let's take them in reverse order. As I tried to capture in my live blog of the event, I ran like Zeus and Jupiter rolled into one during the first 90 minutes of the ToC. I was dealt AA and KK once each, getting paid nicely with both as I recall, but the real story had to do with my draws. I must have hit three flushes and two straights, most of them on the turn, during the first hour and a half of the ToC. With the massive 5000 starting stacks that Al was able to secure for us for the ToC, the implied odds of chasing almost any reasonable draw are huge, and on top of that, you bloggers were not making properly-sized bets to price me out of chasing even from a pot odds perspective. I remember calling a couple of 2/3-pot bets on the flop with naked flush draws early in the tournament, knowing that I have more than enough pot odds to see two more cards if my opponent did not bet again on the turn, and knowing the tremendous implied odds if I could get paid off (and I did often). At least once, I chased an oesd on the flop by calling a bet of just half the pot. I mean, if there's a draw on the board and you're out there leading out for just half the pot, you damn well better have a set, or you are making a downright bad play. Even with a set it's probably a bad play since you can lose if that draw fills on the turn or river, but it's defensible with a set. But if two of a suit flop, or two high cards flop, and you're betting half the pot, you are just asking to get called by a draw and then end up paying if you actually had a hand when the flop came down.

So for 90 minutes in the ToC, I called every bet on the flop with every draw just about, and I swear I must have filled every single draw I saw, and I got paid time after time after time. It was without a doubt the only time I ran good in the entire BBT4, and I was lucky enough to have that happening in the Tournament of Champions, with $24k in free prizes at stake for the winners. I floated lucko on a steal attempt with my K2s and managed to flop trip 2s. I raised from early position with sooted connectors, and I flopped the flush. It was sick. I ran like god, and we all know how easy poker can be when you are running godlike. So that was me for an hour and a half at the ToC, and I quickly amassed a solid chip lead while probably eliminating a full ten bloggers along the way.

And then, poof! It was over.

For the last 2 hours and 40 minutes in the Tournament of Champions, I got no hands. Zero. I mean, I didn't see a premium pair, I didn't see a single pocket pair at all in fact, and I did not receive AK, AQ or AJ even one time during that span. Once we got down to about 20 players left or so in the ToC, my cards were finished. I still managed to win a couple of nice pots, but even those required me to make very marginal calls with very marginal hands and in both instances I got lucky to get in ahead. Once was the hand against F-Train somewhere down to the final two tables, when I called his allin reraise preflop for about 10k when I had raised originally from the cutoff for around 2k, and I flipped up the very dominatable A9o. Lucky for me, F-Train was sitting on A8o, and my kicker played and I got another elimination. On another occasion also down to the last two tables, I called another short stack (mostly everyone was a short stack compared to me almost all the way through this thing) with just top pair and a Jack kicker, and ended up being up against top pair with a lower kicker for another nice jump and another knockout from the ToC. But that was all I had going for me with the cards I was getting, and that only got worse and worse as we got down to fewer and fewer players left.

So, by the time I made that fatefull allin call with second pair top kicker at the final table, you have to put yourself into my shoes to understand how I could make an ill-advised call like that. I hadn't seen any hands for about 150 minutes. I was stealing like a banshee, but I had no cards. None. Nada. And it sucked. And those of you who play a lot of poker know how it is -- when you've been looking at a steady stream of 84o and J3o and Q6s for the past two and a half hours, forced to fold to raise after raise after raise from the big stacks at the table, and watched your own stack dwindle to less than half what it was at one point an hour or so earlier, and suddenly you pick up ATs, it looks like the stone nuts. I raised preflop with it, the first time I had had a hand when I raised before the flop in hours, and the table big stack called. The flop came QT4, so I caught second pair with top kicker, and I bet out again. actyper called. When the turn brought a rag (I think -- too lazy to look back at the screenshots at this point), actyper suddenly led out allin for about 3 times what I had left behind.

And this is where my second explanation comes into play -- hand ranges. I'm playing hand ranges here. That's what I always do. I did it when I called F-Train's allin with my A9, reasoning that he might push any Ace, any two face cards and any pocket pair there, and I got lucky. When I called the allin on the flop with my QJ on the Queen-high flop and ended up being up against Q9 or whatever it was, same thing. All I can do is put a player on a range of hands, given the way he or she has played a given hand from the moment the player first decided to voluntarily put money into the pot, and then I make my decisions based on that hand range.

So when actyper pushed so strong there on the turn, the first thing that went through my head was that he must be weak. As it turns out, this was a testament to how well actyper played the hand, because he sent me the absolute wrong message about the real strength of his hand, and I bought it. Partly because he played it real well, and partly, I am sure, because of the frustration of not having seen a good hand for 150 minutes. But in my head when I made the call, I figured I was sure he would push allin there so quickly with just about any Ten, possibly a few draws, and of course anything better than those hands. But any Ten and a draw were in my view squarely in actyper's range of hands to be pushing like he did there, again especially in light of him not having let me lead out again on the turn before check-raising me allin. So, my analysis of the hand ranges involved led me to believe that I was ahead of a significant part of his range, and drawing to probably five outs to another big portion of the hand. And looking at the chips in the middle, the percentage of my stack already involved, and the pot odds of calling off the rest of my chips, my analysis of the hand ranges led me to make the call. Turns out he had flopped a set of 4s, and IGH in 5th place.

Of course, in retrospect I can easily take a different view of actyper's actions in the hand. Here he has a significant chip lead with 5 players left, two of us set to win 10k to play in the WSOP this summer, and actyper called my preflop raise, called my bet on the flop, and then led out allin when a rag fell on the turn. Now, are those really the actions of someone with a weak hand? I mean, is actyper really gonna risk that entire huge stack he has amassed, at a time when he can pretty much just sit and wait this out for a while before having to make a move? I'm not so sure as I look at it now, with a lot more time and perspective to really review everything. But I have detailed notes on actyper, and generally I show him as an aggressive player who would much rather be the one pushing than the one calling, and at the time, all I can say is that I felt his range included enough hands that I was ahead of or was drawing to beat that I felt it was the right decision to make the call. Of course, in retrospect, seeing what he had, of course I wish I had just folded. But I really didn't want to be in last place of 5 players remaining, and I certainly didn't want to give up a bunch of equity in the pot against a guy who I could easily see at the time pushing with a bluff because he would expect me to fold rather than go out on the bubble. My sense knowing how actyper plays a little bit is that most of the people I've spoken with don't get my point about hand ranges, but I think that call was a lot closer than most of you out there is my guess. Still, I think in retrospect it is a call I would not make again, and one I wish I had not made on Sunday night.

So congratulations to actyper and to jj for taking down the 10k seats. I firmly believe that jj owes it to us as a community to come out for the $1500 WSOP event on Saturday June 27, even if he's not planning on using the prize to play in the Main Event itself. And congratulations as well out to ck and karmarules, who I understand may be katiemother (who recently made her blog private, also adding to my suspicions), for each winning the 2k prizes. Here I was listing jj and ck (and karma, frankly) as three of the big longshots in the ToC, and they managed to nab three of the four big prizes in the event. What a thrill to be a part of such a battle as the BBT4 ToC, and the hugest thanks of all again out to Al for putting it all together and for continuing to figure out unique and fun ways to send bloggers to the World Series of Poker. I will continue to say until my grave that, ultimately, that's what it's all about -- sending bloggers to the WSOP.

What else? OK so the Yankees can't beat the Red Sox -- that is 7 for 7 this year so far for the Sox as of this writing -- but how effing great have the Yankees been playing since A-Rod joined the team? I think I saw recently that they are something like 22-8 since A-Rod's return from a steroid-induced hip injury, and lord knows that Yanks' first baseman Mark Teixeira is enjoying the protection. I know I wrote about this a few weeks back, but at this point Tex is leading the majors in home runs with 20, and he is roundly understood to be one of the best free agent signings of this past offseason, when just one month ago you could not have found someone -- anyone -- who would have described the Teixeira signing as anything but an abject failure. Like I wrote about last month, what a difference a little protection makes, huh?

Oh -- and if you didn't see Jayson Werth of Your World Champion Philadelphia Phillies absolutely single-handedly save the game last night in the bottom of the 10th inning last night against the hapless Mets, you should definitely go and check it out. Basically, with a man on first in a tie game in the bottom half of the 10th inning at Citi Field, perennial step-downer David Wright smacked a ball into the alley in right-center field. With a fast runner on first, Jayson Werth knows that if the ball gets by him, the Mets will likely score the winning run on the hit and the game will be over. So Werth just throws caution to the wind and goes completely balls-out, makes a sensational diving catch that even had the homerass Mets announcers screaming in amazement.

Remember back a few weeks ago, when the Mets lost a game in the 9th inning after Carlos Beltran was thrown out at home plate after refusing to slide in a close play? Even after the game, Beltran himself and his coach both excused his play and neither seemed to think it was much of a big deal. Well, Jayson Werth showed on Wednesday night just how much hustle like that matters, and in doing so he illustrated perfectly exactly what makes the Phillies a better overall team than the Mets right now. I've said it before and I'll say it again -- the Mets are a loser team, and they've got no heart whatsoever, something they show time and time again, game in and game out.

So much more to say, but this is all the time I have for now. Hopefully back at ya tomorrow with more of the same.

Live Bloggin the ToC

12:25 pm ET: It's over!! Ck pushes allin for 20k and actyper hesitates before calling with Q8o and a massive stack. An 8 on the turn and ck's WSOP Main Event dreams are history. JJok and actyper will win the 10k prize packages, and karmarules and ck31 take down the 2k scores. Congrats to all involved in the BBT4 and the Tournament of Champions!

12:20 pm ET: karmarules was gone in 4th place before I could even open up the window to see how she busted. It's actyper with a sick chip lead, jj at 46k and ck at 20k, with the top two finishers winning the 10k seats.

12:19 pm ET: I busted on the bubble in 5th place when I took ATs, easily the best hand I received in the past three hours, and ran it into a flopped set on a QT4 flop where I just couldn't put actyper on a Queen. actyper, jjok, ck31 and karmarules will share in the 24k in prizes being put up by full tilt for the BBT4 ToC.

12:14 pm ET: actyper has opened up another big chip lead, up at 79k to jj's 41k and my 39k. All five players remaining are reasonably close other than actyper, with even the last place stack sitting currently at 22k. It's still wide open folks.

12:06 pm ET: ck's AT turns broadway and bests big chipleader actyper's QQ for another double up for ck. as actyper drops out of the chip lead, one hand later he is allin with AK vs the A7 of qrs, and AK holds. qrs is out in 6th, and we are up to the cash bubble in the ToC. I'm still at 39k, but that is now 4th of 5 after all the sucking out going on at this table.

12:06 pm ET: ck doubles up again with 55 against kickyourace's KQs. kick is out, we are down to 6. actyper remains out in front with 72k, and I am still second with 43k, with jj right behind me at 40k.

11:55 pm ET: Fourth break is here. Here are the chip counts:

actyper -- 60,230
hoyazo -- 43,423
jjok -- 41,032
karmarules -- 29,402
qrs1 -- 26,172
kickyourace -- 10,624
ck31 -- 9117

Still anybody's game as I've been saying. Blinds will resume at 800-1600 with a 200 ante after the 5 minute break.

11:52 pm ET: I just took out smboatdrinks after karmarules sucked out against him with Q9o over boat's AK. Down to 7 left, and my stack rises slightly to 40k, still 3rd place of 7 remaining.

11:50 pm ET: actyper's KJs outlasts iaatg's A5o allin preflop and iaatg is the first player out of the BBT4 ToC final table. Meanwhile, actyper's stack has swelled to the large chip lead, sitting at 73k while jj remains in 2nd place with 41k and me with 37k. Break time coming up again shortly.

11:37 pm ET: Massive postflop suckout by ck after smboatdrinks correctly instacalled ck's flop push with 93 on a 972 flop. CK immediately nailed a second 7 on the turn to double through smboatdrinks. Still all 9 of us remaining at the final table, with me at 38k in chips, back in 3rd place behind jj and actyper.

11:32 pm ET: I drop to 34k in my biggest chip loss of the night when my 33 runs into the final table short stack's AA. That puts me in 4th of 9, behind jj and actyper in the mid 40s, and now SmBoatdrinks at 35k as well. Still anyone's game, but if the short stack did not pick up AA again at the final table I would be ok with that too. ;)

11:28 pm ET: Heffmike is out on the final table bubble and we are down to 9 remaining. Unfortunately it was once again jj who recaptured the chip lead from me when his TT bested heffmike's AJ, putting jj now in first with 49k and me in 2nd place as the final table begins with 41k in chips.

11:22 pm ET: I just eliminated F-Train when he reraised me allin and I opted to call with my A9o after seeing F-Train push allin a few times in the past half hour or so. He flipped up A8o and my kicker held to bump me up to 42k and back into the chip lead. Seconds later, smokkee lost his first race of 2009 and we are down to 10 players remaining. I am in the lead with 43k, with actyper in 2nd with 39k and jj at 38k. Still anyone's game, but we are now just one player away from the ToC final table.

11:16 pm ET: Shabazz Jenkins is out in 13th place after KQ flopped a boat against him allin preflop. 12 runners left, all of my top 5 in odds are now eliminated. I've been stealing like a banshee, haven't had a good hand in over an hour at this point, and am happy to be clinging to my third place position with still 27k in chips. jj and actyper still each hold 37k for the top two spots on the current leaderboard.

11:07 pm ET: Update: I understand that stoner has just busted in 3rd place in WSOP Event #13, when his AK could not beat KK and he loses to the tough loss to swallow 3-handed. That said, I'm expecting that the $202,000 stoner just won will help him to swallow the loss, at least just a little bit. Congratulations sprstoner!!!

11:03 pm ET: sprstoner is down to 3 left in the $2500 nlh WSOP event #13. And I have lost my lead in the BBT4 ToC, as jjok calls down jamyhawks allin push with a short stack and with jj's 88. The 88 held and jj moves to 36k vs my 29k, and as I write this, actyper eliminates Snarf as well, jumping his own stack up to 35k and placing me now in third place.

10:55 pm ET: Third break, down to 16 players remaining in the ToC. As mentioned, most of the heavyweights from the BBT4 leaderboard have been eliminated at this point, although for the first time in a couple of hours I have a guy right on my ass at the top of the leaderboard. I am still in first, with 29,935 in chips as we break for 5 minutes, but jj has now climbed to 29,070, while actyper is a close third with 26,597 in chips. It's still anybody's game, but obviously I can't complain about where I'm at with just 12 spots left until the money positions in this badboy.

10:50 pm ET: Whoa! Somehow I missed this, but Jordan is also gone, out in 21st place, so that is yet another of the "Tier I" guys that won't be winning WSOP packages in the BBT4 ToC. The only guy left that I had in that first group is Shabazz Jenkins, who currently sits in 13th place out of 16 remaining.

10:48 pm ET: I elim LJ when I make the mandatory call of her short-stack raise preflop when I hold 66 utg. I hold against A5s and move to 32k, with 2nd place still jj at around 22k in chips.

10:41 pm ET: And another early favorite goes down. Chad is out when he pushed allin from the small blind with K2s, and was instacalled by Vinnay who woke up in the big blind with QQ. Chad is out in 23rd place, and Tony Eusebio goes just a minute later leaving 21 blonkeys remaining. in the ToC. My 28k is now ahead of jj in 2nd place with around 22k in chips.

10:33 pm ET: And another early favorite bites the dust. 1ueensup1 is out of the Tournament of Champions in 25th place of 44 who started 2 and a half hours ago. I didn't see how it happened, but it doesn't really matter I guess. So far TJ and Queensup are both out in the top half of the field, leaving this a wide open race for the 4 wsop prize packages and the two 10k seats. Meanwhile I just raised with, won and showed my fourth hammer of the night. Eat it.

10:26 pm ET: Over 30k and still comfortably in first place after knocking out mclarich who pushed the turn with just an oesd and two unders on a K89 flop (he held 67). I could not find a reason to fold 97o to his stack that is barely a dent in mine, and I dodged 8 outs once for the big jump. Second place is now smboatdrinks at around 15k, so I am still sitting pretty way ahead of the pack with 25 runners left.

10:14 pm ET: Up over 25k as my Q9 outflops ck's TT and I withstand one bet from her before we both wisely check down the river. With 30 runners remaining, I'm just over 25k with second place (still ck) just a shade over 14k. Meanwhile I am out of the 40k per my earlier post. Right now it's just the ToC open on my pc, though that is likely to change as this thing wears on.

9:55pm ET: Second break, and I sit with 21,730 chips, still good for first place with 32 bloggers remaining in the BBT4 Tournament of Champions, about 4k ahead of second place which is ck31 at the moment. My stats through 159 hands in the ToC are pretty effing amazing if I don't say so myself -- I have won an astounding 24 hands preflop (15% of the total hands dealt at my table!), plus another 2 on the flop, 2 on the river, and an equally incredible 10 out of 12 showdowns, which is a testament to my having had AA and KK already tonight in addition to making two straights and a flush all in the first two hours of this thing. That means a total of -- get this -- 23% of the total hands dealt at my table have been won by me, and this at an event that's had 7 or more players at each table throughout and which has been mostly 9-handed. I'm suuuuure that will continue as the ToC rolls on!

9:46pm ET: I just elim'd pushmonkey when he pushed allin on a reraise with what turned out to be AJo against my TT. I got some chips from Snarf in the process as well, but could not get him to commit fully when I flopped a set on a scary JT9 board. The 8 on the turn prevented me from betting, but luckily I held against pm's flopped TPTK and I shot up over 22k in the process.

9:42pm ET: I just took another sickass beat to get essentially eliminated from a poker tournament, this time in the 40k where I got allin with QQ against 77 and A8s, and watched 77 make its set on the turn to send me essentially to the rail. It's hard to believe I still play this game sometimes. Although, I did just double back up and am now only about a third of the average stack with about 200 runners left until the money. Meanwhile, in the ToC I am just over 18k and still in 1st place wth 33 runners remaining.

9:24pm ET: Just elim'd dueyv when he bet half the pot on the flop and I called with an oesd. My oesd filled on the turn, he checked to me and I opted to bet out 2/3 of the pot, which duey quickly raised allin for another 2k more. Holding the nuts, I called of course, expecting to need to fade some outs to a boat, but instead duey showed ATo unimproved and was drawing dead. That bounced me up to 14k and second place, and then the very next hand saw Aposec push allin on a reraise to my pf raise from middle position, which I felt I had to call with AKo. He showed AJo, and somehow another favorite held up, vaulting me over 16k in chips and into first place on the leaderboard with 35 left out of 44 runners who started about 90 minutes ago.

9:20pm ET: Over 10k and into 4th place overall after F-Train instacalled me on the river with his 77, third pair on the board, and lost to my pocket Aces. At the moment the Asshat Frat Crew is representing in a really big way, with Chad in 1st, Don in 3rd and myself in 4th. Goooooo crew!!!!

9:04pm ET: Booom Tuscaloosa Johnny becomes the first of the Tier 1 favorites to be eliminated from the BBT4 Tournament of Champions. TJ flopped bottom set, but lost to flopped broadway. That's brutal. But what a run for TJ, over not just this BBT series but the last two of them overall.

8:56pm ET: First break. I have 8455 in chips, good for fourth place after 55 minutes of play. Meanwhile, at the second break of the 40k, I am 274 out of 480 with just under 5k in chips. Chad is in the final 20 of the Sunday Brawl on full tilt, already in place to win well into the four digits, and sprstoner is in 3rd place with 5 players remaining in WSOP event #13!

8:52pm ET: Up to 8600 in chips after I turned 12 outs, called a 2/3 pot bet against Aposec based purely on implied odds, and then rivered the nut flush. I raised aposec's river bet and he correctly folded with the runner-runner diamond flush showing on the board. I am currently in 2nd place on the leaderboard, but right above me in first with more than twice the starting stack is Chad, who I already had at 6 to 1 as one of the favorite to win this thing. Love that he has that sized stack early.

8:40pm ET: I just nabbed the rest of lucko's 540 remaining chips when he pushed allin ahead of me when I held QQ. He flipped T9s and somehow the biatches held, bumping me over 6000 chips for the first time and into 6th place and simultaeously eliminating one of the toughest players from the ToC field.

8:25pm ET: I got down to 4100 before caling a blind steal from lucko on the button with my K2s. I flopped two more 2s and just smooth called two bets from lucko on the flop and turn, including when I made quad ducks with the case 2 on the turn. On the river I bet out big for the full pot, and lucko called for most of his stack with 73o for the rivered boat. Up to 5900 just like that, good for 10th place out of 43 left as Julkeus has become the first player eliminated from the ToC.

8:07pm ET: First fucking of the night came early, and I managed to minimize the damage in any event. I called a 2/3 pot bet on the flop with a hidden flush draw, made my flush on the turn, but failed to get it allin thank god. The river made a 6-outer boat for aposec and I could have easily been allin there with a massive lead for the early double-up as my opponent held A and was n0t about to fold. Down to 4700 from 5000 starting stack in the very earlygoing.

8:02pm ET: Stole first hand dealt to me on the night with a 3x open-raise from middle position. That's always a good feeling.

8:01pm ET: Shuffle up and deal! I got Al, Snarf, Aposec, duey, F-Train and shipfaced at my starting table. GL to everyone who is playing!

7:48pm ET: Well so much for my nice stack in the 40k. QQ < KK on a Ten-high flop vs. a short stack took care of that one. Ahhh typical, dirty, poker. T minus 10 minutes on the BBT4 ToC!

7:32pm ET: Sprstoner (Shawn Glines) is in the final 8 at WSOP event #14!

7:26pm ET: Just doubled up early in the full tilt 40k, which started at 7pm ET. Called preflop raise with T9s and flopped flush, eventually getting the lone Ace of the flush suit allin on the turn and fading the 8 outs on the river. Gotta love full tilt mtt players.

7:05pm ET: T minus 55 minutes until the BBT4 ToC. Meanwhile, sprstoner is down to the final 10 of WSOP event #14.

5:35pm ET: 44 runners and counting have signed up for tonight's BBT4 Tournament of Champions. Get out here and let's see if we can break 50!!

Just kidding. This is a freeroll and you are only registered if you "earned" your way in by "winning" a BBT4 tournament over the past three months. But you can still come out and watch the junk-kickery!

4:20pm ET: Well, the day is finally here. T minus 3 hours and 40 minutes as I write this until the biggest day of the year in poker blogdom, as far as I'm concerned. Two lucky bloggers will walk way after tonight's BBT4 Tournament of Champions with $10,000 prize packages to the 2009 World Series of Poker Main Event. Two more of the 44 runners in tonight's freeroll will snag $2,000 WSOP prize packages for their efforts, with just worse than 1 in 20 odds for everyone to win some kind of cash for the WSOP this summer.

Over the past few days I have done a little writeup on each of the 43 other runners who will be joining me tonight at 9pm ET on full tilt. You can go and read those in my previous three posts before this one. Here is a quick recap of my odds of each player to win, in alpha order as best as I could do in my current state:

125Will -- 20 to 1
1Queensup1 -- 5 to 1
actyper -- 23 to 1
AlCantHang -- 35 to 1
Aposec72 -- 28 to 1
Asphnxma -- 30 to 1
Bone Daddy -- 19 to 1
Buddydank -- 14 to 1
chiefroger -- 35 to 1
ck31 -- 32 to 1
columbo -- 16 to 1
cracknaces -- 7 to 1
Dr. Pauly -- 15 to 1
dueyv9 -- 28 t 1
ElSnarfGrande -- 10 to 1
heffmike -- 9 to 1
highonpoker -- 6 to 1
hoyazo -- 15 to 1
iaatg6296 -- 14 to 1
inguri -- 35 to 1
jamyhawk -- 22 to 1
Jimdniacc -- 17 to 1
jjok -- 27 to 1
Joanne1111 -- 15 to 1
Julkeus -- 20 to 1
karmarules -- 28 to 1
kickyourace -- 24 to 1
lucko21 -- 11 to 1
mclarich -- 24 to 1
Miami Don -- 11 to 1
nightranger -- 22 to 1
pushmonkey72 -- 35 to 1
pvanharibo -- 15 to 1
qrs1 -- 20 to 1
rake feeder -- 29 to 1
rubbishat -- 40 to 1
Shabazz Jenkins -- 9 to 1
ShipFaced -- 18 to 1
SmBoatDrinks -- 18 to 1
smokkee -- 12 to 1
tgrazz -- 33 to 1
Tony Eusebio 20 to 1
Tuscaloosa John -- 7 to 1
Vinnay -- 25 to 1

I'm looking forward to starting up the action in just over 3 and a half hours. In the meantime, go think about sprstoner who is right around average with just 20 runners left in WSOP Event #13, the $2500 nlh tournament that started with 1088 runners and pays out $506,000 and change to the winner.

BBT4 ToC Odds -- The Rest of the Field

Wow have I been taking some sickass suckouts lately. More than usual. And they're the kind of suckouts where I am a few outs away from having a really big stack, and serious chip utility, only to find myself suddenly looking at the tournament lobby screen, having to re-check the hand history to even try to figure out whatthefuck just happened. As much as I hate running bad, I hate even more going through a string of suckouts heading into a tournament that I am more looking forward to than maybe any individual poker event this year (so far, not counting my upcoming WSOP foray later this month). The BBT4 Tournament of Champions is this Sunday night, June 7, at 8pm ET on full tilt, and I will be opening up the blog all day on Sunday, updating live throughout the day heading up to the ToC, and hopefuly sticking around well into the evening updating my own progress as the ToC wears into its later hours. And speaking of the BBT4 Tournament of Champions, without further adieu let me get to my predictions for the rest of the field that I have not already covered in my prior couple of posts. In alpha order, starting with those I have not yet covered:

Dr. Pauly -- Pauly is a solid poker player, and is always a danger to make a deep run using his ability to extract chips from his opponents, where Pauly is better than many in this field. That said, Pauly is far too busy with his writing to play much with this group anymore, and as a result my suspicion is that Pauly's poker skill will be outweighed somewhat by his inexperience against this particular field of blonkeys. With an average odds of 21 to 1 against, Pauly's still going to fare better than average, coming in I think right around 15 to 1.

Miami Don -- Don is an interesting pick for the ToC. He only played in 26 of the 56 BBT4 tournaments, but in those 26 appearances Don amassed more than 28 points per event on his way to 5 final tables and over $1220 in cash winnings. Don's solid BBT performance combined with an equally solid run in the most recent Bodonkey to demonstrate his ability to play against the bloggers. Don is another guy whose chances to win one of the two 10k WSOP prize packages is solidly above average, probably coming in at around 11 to 1.

nightranger -- StB plays under the handle "nightranger" on full tilt and is another guy who has demonstrated skill in maximizing value from his strong hands. Although StB has won several blonkaments in his day, those days were mostly some time ago, and as a rule we don't see StB in our regular games with anywhere near the frequency that was once the case. In the end I know that StB can play the game, but I think his odds of winning one of the top two prizes are right around average given his lack of recent experience against most of the rest of the ToC field. 22 to 1.

pushmonkey72 -- I really owe pushmonkey one, because it was he who almost singlehandedly put my one and only lifetime Mookie championship on a silver platter for the taking earlier in the BBT4. But despite that one act of undying kindness for which I will feel eternal gratitude, I think pushmonkey is a very long shot to finish in the top 2 in Sunday's Tournament of Champions. I know push has won a few blonkaments over time, but I've just seen too many poor decisions to think him likely to last against this particular field of BBT4 tournament winners. 35 to 1.

pvanharibo -- Obviously pvan has the skill to win the ToC. LJ has the aggression that all great poker tournament players live and breathe, and she's shown that she can do it on a large stage several times over, both in the blogger tournaments and elsewhere. On top of that, she tends to hit when she needs to and the bloggers fold to her like it's going out of style. The only thing the rest of the field has going for it is that pvan had a pretty horrible BBT4 overall, certainly by her standards. I will temper the odds a bit as a result of her cold streak in BBT4 tournaments, but we're still looking at 15 to 1 for pvan to take this thing down.

qrs1 -- I don't know who this guy is, and I only saw him start showing up in the BBT4 somewhere near the end of the series. Having only played 12 tournaments total in the challenge, qrs still somehow managed to finish in 36th place on the series leaderboard overall. Although the guy popped up with 6 final tables in those 12 tournaments, I have to scale the odds down somewhat based on some of the plays I saw made along the way during the BBT4. Not knowing anything else about who this guy is, I will lay his odds of winning at around 20 to 1.

rake feeder -- Rake won I think the very first tournament of the BBT this time around, besting me in heads-up play at the series-opening Big Game. Rake also showed up for 28 events, meaning that he participated in fully half of the events of the entire challenge, so he's mixed it up with the group playing in Sunday's ToC sufficiently often to know what's what. The thing about Rake that makes me a bit dubious about his chances of running deep is that in those 28 BBT4 tournaments, it was just three final tables and 3 ITM finishes. That tells me that Rake's game is a bit hit or miss, and that regardless of his early performance, he simply does not have the late game skills that many of his competitors in this field are sure to bring to the table this weekend. It will take some very fortunate situations for Rake to last down to the final two. 29 to 1.

rubbishat -- No idea who this is. But they have the word "rubbish" in their name, and it looks like in his one win out of 6 tries was for a lofty $67. Thus, we're looking at another guy who plays exclusively in the $5 Brit gheyness, and thus someone who plays low and who doesn't have much experience against the rest of this field on top. 40 to 1.

Shabazz Jenkins -- I've said this several times, but Shabazz is a good poker player, one I have seen and played with deep in tournaments on multiple occasions over the past year or so. Shabazz crushed in the BBT4, finishing 51 events in 3rd place overall on the leaderboard, with over $1600 cash won and as one of the small handful of players who ended the series with more than 30 BBT points per event over more than 30 tournaments. Despite playing so well in the blogger events, I think Shabazz is a bit of a sleeper in the Toc just because he hasn't been around for too too long and since he only won outright one of the series' 56 tournaments. Shabazz is clearly one of the favorites in this field in my book. 9 to 1.

ShipFaced -- I know nothing about who ShipFaced is. What I do know is that the guy played just 8 BBT4 tournaments, and somehow he managed to win two of those eight tournaments. I don't know what to do with that information since I haven't a clue who this guy is, but I suppose he's gotta be in the top half of the field after that impressive performance over just a handful of events. Plus, on BDR last week someone said he won a Mookie along the way, so you know he's got mad skillz. I'll stick ShipFaced just a bit above average, at 18 to 1 to win one of the 10k packages.

SmBoatDrinks -- Here is a guy who's been playing with the bloggers for a couple of years at least, and I've seen the name several times during that period, so I know he has the requisite experience against this field to at least prevent experience from being a detriment to his chances in the BBT4 ToC. What's more, Boat also finished the BBT in 19th place on the overall leaderboard, making 8 final tables in 43 appearances along the way. The biggest knock against Boat's BBT performance is that he has only been able to turn those 8 final tables into $400 cash, which indicates not many late runs and more than his fair share of early final table bustouts. The good overall performance gets Boat into the picture in my view, but it's not enough to punch solidly into the top half of the field. 18 to 1.

smokkee -- Smokkee is definitely one of the two or three tightest players in this year's BBT4 ToC field. Normally this is not a reliable path to success in a tournament where you need to finish in the top 2 out of a strong, aggressive field, but I don't know that I can ever recall seeing someone on a heater of good luck like smokkee has been on over the past month or two. Anybody who can just foldfoldfold to the final table and then reliably expect KK>QQ>JJ and AK>KQ on a King-high flop cannot possibly ever be far out of this tournament, and when you throw in that the guy has been winning races late in tournaments over the past few weeks at probably an 85% clip, and smokkee has to be well into the top part of the field for the upcoming ToC. Since his success remains based on a mathematically flawed strategy that only works due to some of the sickest luck I've ever seen, I can't put smokkee in the top tier of players, but he is a solid second-tier with very good chances of running deep given his recent performances. 12 to 1.

tgrazz -- I don't know who this player is either, other than to say that the guy suckout-eliminated me from not one but two tournaments during the BBT4. And that while playing only 18 of the 56 BBT4 tournaments overall. In those 18 events, however, tgrazz made just 3 final tables and scored under 18 BBT points per game overall, which indicates not a lot of late strength in his tournament game. Combine that with very little experience playing against this group overall, and we're looking at another below average chance to win the big shit on Sunday. 33 to 1.

Tony Eusebio -- I don't know much about Tony to be honest, but he seemed to be friendly with a few people here and there who played in the BBT this time around. Tony finished the BBT4 in 24th place, with 6 final tables in 31 events played. His points per game was respectable, and I don't recall him making any embarrassing plays, outside of the Skillz game where I'm stil cleaning up the barf from some of the calls I saw. As the ToC is a no-limit event and with Tony having performed well overall in the BBT, I think his lack of familiarity with some of the players will keep his odds down close to average overall. 20 to 1.

Tuscaloosa John -- What can I say that hasn't already been said about Tuscaloosa John and his incredible BBT prowess? Not only did TJ run roughshod over the BBT4 field, including 14 final tables and over $2200 in cashes over 50 tournaments, but he's done it before as well -- TJ won not one but two of the montly 2k prizes from last summer's BBT3 as it is. All this is a long way of saying, TJ has repeatedly beat down on the bloggers over a sustained period of time, and he appears to have this format really down pat as far as having figured out how to survive to make a run at the end of these things. Of course, winning almost every race I saw him in over the past month doesn't hurt either. There's no way TJ is less than 7 to 1 to win one of the big prizes in Sunday's Tournament of Champions.

Vinnay -- Vinnay won his way into the BBT4 Tournament of Champions just a couple of days after I had called him out for never winning the Mookie, ending the challenge in 46th place on the overall leaderboard. Despite showing up for 20 BBT4 events, in general I don't think Vinnay has quite the experience against this type of field that most of the other participants in the ToC will have, and on top of that I also note that Vinnay made just three final tables in those 20 tournaments played. Overall this stacks up to a slightly worse than average shot at the big prizes on Sunday, probably around 25 to 1 against.

And that rounds out everybody playing in the BBT4 Tournament of Champions on Sunday night at 8pm ET. Everybody except for me, that is. As I mentioned on BDR the other night, I feel like I surely have the skill to make the kind of deep run needed to nab one of the 10k WSOP prize packages in this thing. I had a solid BBT overall, finishing in 15th place on the leaderboard while making 7 final tables and more than $1200 over 39 events played. But, if I am to make the deep run I know I am capable of, I will need to get some good situations along the way, either in the form of decent cards, hitting some flops, or at the least having some of my 57% and 52% hands hold up when I need them. And unfortunately for me, the story of my BBT4 has been more or less the total opposite of that, as I always seem to be the guy losing the key race, missing the 14 outs twice in a key spot, and just generally not being afforded the opportunity to wait out the good spots nearly as much as many of the others who really killed this time around in the BBT. And with the way I have been running lately, it seems almost a certainty that I will get suckout- or luckout-eliminated somewhere along the way in the upcoming ToC. My poker skill matches up well againsts the totality of this field, but I am simply nowhere near the top of the list as far as actual chances of winning the big shit. 15 to 1.

OK that's all for now. I will update the Hoy live blog right here on Sunday as often as I can, at least until I get sucked out on by some douchebag who would jizz all over himself if he even thought about winning 10k in a poker tournament. That should be good for an hour or so at least after the 8pm start time of the ToC, but look for me here ahead of that for some good old-fashioned live blogging of my poker day.

All Hail the BBT, and TOC Odds Part Deux and Trois

Sorry 'bout no Tuesday post, but as we all know, sometimes duty calls. Work kicked me in the balls, ferociously and repeatedly, on Tuesday, to the point that I didn't really get to think about this space other than to wonder if I would ever get out of the office long enough to pursue any of my other non-work interests on the day. That means that I also missed a day of giving my thoughts on the odds of each player in the BBT4 Tournament of Champions nabbing one of the two $10k WSOP main event prize packages available in this Sunday, so today I'll just have to give you a double dip on that front.

But first, I was a bit saddened but I can't say all that surprised to read on Al's blog the other day that the BBT4 will be the final BBT-style series put together for us lowly blonkheads by the good people at full tilt. It's been an amazing run, really, if you think about it. And I say that with a certain sense of pride, as the BBT at its core is something I was deeply involved in from its very inception.

The WPBT had just finished its first "season" in 2006 of keeping a running leaderboard of bloggers' performances in a series of weekly blogger tournaments. The WPBT figured out early that it was more fun from a leaderboard perspective if you rotate the games, so we played a mix of limit, no-limit, pot-limit, holdem, omaha, razz, the "Gemini" as I recall which was still I think the first and only multi-table blogger tournament ever run, and various other games and structures to keep things fresh. There were no real prizes for performance in the WPBT, just pride, which as I look back on it made it cool in its own way I suppose. Although I tailed off a little bit there at the end, I ended in the top 10 on the 2006 WPBT leaderboard and was very proud to have won a few of the tournaments outright in various flavors of poker, and I had enjoyed it and really for the first time realized that, if done correctly, it could be truly fun to focus on actual performance every week in one of the blonkaments I was going to be playing anyways. The WPBT also brought out several new characters into our world of blogging, guys like Chad and Lucko and others who really wowed us with their prowess in a wide variety of games and poker skills over the better part of a year of playing together once a week.

Around that time I got to thinking. I had begun writing for Cardsquad with the lovely Joanne, and I was starting to formulate a plan to use that platform to somehow combine a leaderboard score for all of the blonkaments -- the WPBT on Sundays, the MATH, the WWdN and the Mookie at the time as I recall -- and post a running tally of everyone's leaderboard points every week to a wide poker audience on Cardsquad, hopefully using that to increase the popularity of our games among new players as well as helping to keep things fun like the WPBT had been so good at doing for me over the previous year. I worked up a couple of ideas but had never really taken them to fruition yet when I headed out to Caesar's in I think March of 2007 to play in the WSOP Circuit event down in Atlantic City.

And that's where I met Al for the first time in the flesh. After I busted about 7 hours in to the Circuit Event, I headed over for my first (and still only) trip to the Borgata to meet up with The Al Can't Hang at a bar in the Borg, and though we only hung out for maybe an hour, two at the most, it turns out that Al had been having similar thoughts to my own as far as putting together some kind of mega-, all-encompassing blogger tournament series that could be really fun and interesting for everyone. We talked almost the entire time over a few shots and beers about it, and then we went about our merry ways, me back home to New York and Al back to the poker room where some other bloggers were playing in tournaments. I, of course, continued to think much but actually do very little about organizing an actual structure to this mega-leaderboard idea, but we all know how Al is about getting shit done. Lo and behold, maybe a couple of weeks go by, and suddenly Al is hitting me up on the girly, all excited-like, and he's telling me that full tilt has apparently agreed to give us back every dollar of rake we pay for the tournaments in a 3-month-long Battle of the Blogger Tournaments series in the form of an end-of-series freeroll with cash prizes.

I was floored. That was going to be what, like $3000 in free prizes, just for all of us playing the very same blonkaments we were going to be playing anyways? Whoa. And over time, it grew. In that first BBT back in the summer of 2007, dominated by resident draw-chaser Bayne, we got back a few thousand in cash prizes at the end in a giant freeroll. Just six months later, Al managed to convince full tilt that they needed to give away a seat to the upcoming Aussie Millions tournament they were sponsoring -- a fucking $12k AUD buyin tournament seat!! -- which my friend jeciimd managed to win by dominating the points system of the BBT2 almost wire to wire over two months, including winning the first series-ending Tournament of Champions for the grand prize and the trip to Oz, and the giving away of more than 20k worth of free shit to us humble bloggers. Then six months later it was time for the BBT3, and for full tilt to give away the first set of World Series of Poker seats. And boy did Al and full tilt knock this one out of the park -- for the BBT3's Tournament of Champions, we would be looking at not one but two WSOP Main Event seats -- 10k apiece! -- plus, two more 2k WSOP prize packages to be awarded in the series-ending Tournament of Champions, and three more 2k prize packages to be awarded to the winner of each individual month of the three-month challenge. In making essentially the same deal for us here with the BBT4, full tilt will have given away nearly a hundred grand of purely free shit to the bloggers, all as part of the Battle of the Blogger Tournaments, an idea first hatched by a couple of blonkeys over some shots at a bar near the poker room in the Borgata.

Sure, I have had my issues with the BBT from time to time. Most of those related (and still relate) to people being unable to keep themselves from getting angry and acting childish as a result of all that suddenly is at stake in our little private weekly games, be it in the chat box, in their blogs, and in comments on other people's blogs. Where our regular private tournaments had started off as fun opportunities to get together with blogger friends and light-heartedly sling some internet chips, often times they were turned into a source of tremendous stress, and eventually real frustration and jealousy for many people, and that of course was not a good development. A lot of bad shit has been said and thought about people and their play as a result of the advent of so much money riding on our private games. Some of this was directed at me -- mostly by people with micropenis of course -- but really it's the stuff I've seen happen as opposed to what has involved me that was the worst in my view. And, given the structure of the tournament series as it has evolved over the past couple of years, it has become a serious grind for just about anyone who wants to make a serious effort in the challenges, one that often exacerbates the stress and frustration that the BBT had already created by its very existence.

But make no mistake -- the BBT has been an effing incredible thing overall, and I don't see how anybody can reasonably say otherwise. Sure, things have changed with our private tournaments as a result of the BBT, but change is not necessarily a bad thing. And to think that, just for playing together like we used to every Tuesday and Thursday night on pokerstars with Wil Wheaton for free, now we would receive nearly a hundred large of free prizes from a major online poker site, for that Al deserves all the freaking credit in the world. I won't even put it into words how special it is that Al helped send two bloggers to the Main Event last year via the BBT3 Tournament of Champions, in addition to giving away another ten 2k WSOP prize packages and an additional 10k+ in cash prizes over the past couple of years. But for someone who was involved fairly early on in this community -- not A-lister early, mind you, but fairly early compared to most of you out there reading this -- to think that two bloggers got to play in the WSOP Main Event, and another 10 bloggers won 2k prize packages, that is fucking awesome. There's just no other way to describe it. So the BBT is dead, but not forgotten. Tonight I resolve to crack out my aging bottle of Johnny Walker Blue Label and hoist one up to Al, for helping bring the WSOP to so many poker bloggers who would otherwise never have even sniffed Las Vegas during the summertime otherwise, and for adding an excitement to our lives over much of these past couple of years that we all should know would never have been present without him.

Al Cant Hang, thank you, for everything. Sincerely.

OK with that out of the way, time to turn back to my BBT4 ToC odds. Starting with none other than the Man of the Hour himself.

AlCantHang -- OK after saying all those nice things about Al above, now I can say what I really think about his chances of winning one of the two WSOP Main Event 10k prize packages in the upcoming BBT4 ToC: not great. Although Al is surely high on everyone's list of who we would like to see take this baby down, Al has not had a ton of success in the blonkaments overall, and he only managed to make the points in 1 out of 7 BBT events he played this time around. Average odds are 21 to 1, so I will put Al, one of the few poker players who would not even claim to be particularly good at no limit holdem, at 35 to 1 against.

chiefroger -- Sorry, I simply don't know anything about this person. If you told me there was one person registered for the ToC who did not actually play in any of the events, I would have picked this name. Chiefroger played exactly one BBT4 event, won his seat, and that was it for him. Assuming this is not yet another blogger with multiple accounts on full tilt, I will lay this person's odds at 35 to 1 as well, given a total lack of experience playing against this group nor any demonstrated success in nlh tournaments as a rule.

ck31 -- ck knows how to play poker, and in fact makes a nice little side income from doing just that at the live tables ever since making the move from New York to Las Vegas last year. ck has written a number of solid strategy posts on Skillz game poker variations over the past year or so on her blog and has has often had intelligent contributions to analysis of those games. That said, like Al before her, ck is not a no-limit specialist, a fact with which she would not argue. What's more, ck has had very little success in winning the private blogger tournaments over time, despite managing to nab her seat to the BBT4 ToC. It's hard to give strong odds on someone winning out -- especially against this field of mostly nlh tournament winners -- to someone who is not a nlh fan and who doesn't win many blonkaments to begin with. I'm saying 32 to 1 here as well for ck.

dueyv9 -- This is another person that I just don't have any real information on. I recognize the name from some of our private blogger tournaments, but duey is not someone I really know anything about. That said, duey did play 28 of the BBT4 events, and ended in a respectable 45th place on the final BBT4 leaderboard, so that's not entirely indicative of someone without nlh skill. Purely based on those two facts that I know about this person, I will lay the odds of a 10k prize win for dueyv at 28 to 1 against.

ElSnarfGrande -- Here is someone that I personally know very little about, although I understand that Snarf is associated with the corporation poker blog in some way (I think). Although a relative newcomer compared to some of the old-school WWdN'ers among us, Snarf has been playing with this crew for some time and has surely amassed a nice pile of notes and thoughts on the other players' games at this point, which is always something I look to when trying to create odds like this. But what's even more impressive is that Snarf ripped it up in the BBT4, amassing over 32 BBT points per game, a thousand dollars of cashes and 12 final tables over 41 events, good for 6th place overall on the final leaderboard of the final BBT tournament series. I think this bodes well for Snarf's chances in this weekend's ToC, so I will lay Snarf's odds of winning the 10k at 10 to 1.

heffmike -- Speaking of people who performed well during the BBT4, heffmike definitely fits the bill. First off, heff came out for 53 of the 56 events, giving him plenty of experience in this BBT to go along with the time he spent playing with this crew prior to this summer. Moreover, heff managed to outright win three of those tournaments in the BBT4, in addition to making 14 final tables and winning nearly $1500 on his way to a 4th place finish overall in the series. And, as I can personally attest to, heff has also caught a lot of breaks over the past couple of months, which is crucial for anyone who thinks they can outlast this field and make it down to the final two participants in the BBT4 Tournament of Champions. With how he has been running and the skill he has shown all throughout the BBT this time around, it's an inescapable conclusion that heff is one of the favorites to win one of the two 10k price packages this weekend. Let's say 9 to 1.

highonpoker -- Now if you're looking for someone who ran really well during the BBT4, look no further than Jordan. Although Jordan finished the BBT4 in 5th place on the overall leaderboard, that stat is misleading because he only played in 31 of the 56 total events, way less than anybody in his league on the leaderboard. This leaves Jordan's 45+ BBT points per event looking downright stratospheric compared to anyone else with 30 or more events -- 34 PPE is the next highest that I am seeing of anyone else who qualifies. And Jordan won four BBT4 tournaments, also the most of anybody in the entire blogiverse over the past three months. So, although Jordan did not play nearly as many of the events as the other high scores in the challenge, and thus doesn't have nearly the sample size of tournaments that they have, he without a doubt made more out of his BBT appearances than anybody, much much more. And, again as I can attest to from personal observation, Jordan ran as well as anybody I've ever seen run in a BBT series. Jordan in the BBT4 made Bayne in the original BBT look like me trying to get two overcards to hold up. I've seen Jordan allin and behind at least 6 or 7 times just over the four tournaments I saw him win, and I've watched him pull a rabbit out of a hat on the turn or river another several times on top where his tournament life was not officially on the line. Now, many people might say that his incredible luck to get to this point decreases Jordan's chances of cashing big in the ToC, but I do not agree. Jordan is on an incredible heater in the blonkaments -- a streak which continued right into the last day of the BBT when he pulled several lucky cards on his way to a third place in the final Brit Bloggerment -- and I see no reason to believe that will suddenly stop now. I don't want Jordan at my table, I don't want him with a big stack of chips, and frankly I just have to hope that somebody can take the wind out of his sails early, or "God help us all", to use a very line from Lost. I'm thinking 6 to 1 for Jordan to win the big one.

iaatg6296 -- I don't know anything about this guy, except what I learned from Joanne on the radio the other night, that his initials stand for "It's All About The Game", which I find to be exceedingly ghey. I also have noticed iaatg complaining early and often in the chat box throughout his 40 BBT4 events about how incredibly unlucky he runs, which I don't believe per se, but which I do view as a sign of some poker immaturity. Thus, again assuming we're not dealing with another in the growing list of bloggers with multiple accounts to make extra money at the expense of those who follow the rules, a perceived lack of experience playing the game and playing with this particular group is a slight strike against iaatg's chances. But iaatg also finished the series in 13th place overall on the BBT4 leaderboard, so the guy obviously has some skills. That 13th place showing over 40 tournaments is surely enough to get him above average, but I am still thinking something like 14 to 1 for iaatg here.

inguri -- Here is another person I simply know nothing about. Not a thing. I don't know what event he ever played in the BBT, and I don't remember ever seeing him. I see from the leaderboard that he played just the one event, winning $82 in the process, which means it must have been one of the ghey Brit things. So here's a guy with no real experience playing against this group of players, who won a small, $5 event in his only attempt in the BBT4, which again does not bode well in my book. 35 to 1.

jamyhawk -- I don't remember seeing Jamyhawk much during the BBT4 slate of tournaments to be honest, though I am seeing that he participated in 26 of the 56 total events. In general I think jamy suffers a bit here from not having played nearly as much with this group as he once did, although I seem to recall him winning his way in to the BBT3 ToC as well, so the guy obviously has some ability to win against the bloggers. Jamy's 34th place finish on the BBT4 leaderboard is not bad given that it occurred in less than half of the events of the challenge, so I have to give him some credit there as well. Overall, I see jamy as a guy who could win the grand prize on Sunday, but not someone who I would be inclined to pick to be that winner. I will say a very average rating of 22 to 1 to win it all.

Jimdniacc -- Jim is another guy who fared pretty well overall in the BBT despite playing in only half of the events. His 25 BBT points per event played put him somewhere in the top 10-15 players throughout the BBT4, which is quite good, and jim seems to have amassed some solid experience playing against the bloggers in general over the past year. I don't know much more about him other than this, so basing it just on what I'm seeing on the BBT leaderboard, I would lay jim's odds of winning one of the 10k seats at somewhat better than average -- let's say 17 to 1.

jjok -- JJ, who has been and always will be one of the funniest mf'ers in this group, is another of those guys who played in exactly one BBT event, won it, and then disappeared. So his leaderboard numbers look bad in cumulative terms, but the sample size renders it all pretty meaningless in the end. This leads me to have to look to the past, at JJ's general performance in the blonkaments, where I would say he has been a mixed bag over time. I seem to recall JJ winning a blonkament here and there, although my impression without looking anything up is that those wins have been very few and far between. Combine that with a lack of recent play against most of the competitors who will be in Sunday's BBT4 Tournament of Champions, and I think the odds are against JJ taking down one of the big prizes this weekend. 27 to 1.

Joanne1111 -- Joanne is an interesting case for the BBT4 ToC. The guys on the radio didn't seem to think much of her ToC chances, but I don't necessarily agree, at least not to the extent that they seemed to believe it. Joanne played in just 37 of the 56 events in the BBT4, but in doing so she managed to finish in 12 place overall on a cumulative basis, and compile more than 26 BBT points per tournament in so doing. This is indicative of an top-ten quality performance in the BBT4 overall, which is something that is not easy to do. Unlike some of the other names on this list, Joanne has won several blonkaments in her day, ranging from way back to the WWdN to the more elite and elusive titles of today like the Mookie and the Skillz series. While I do believe that Joanne's lack of aggression tends to make it harder for her to make real deep final table runs, I think the odds of her being alive when the final table hits on Sunday are about as good as anyone in the field's. 15 to 1.

Julkeus -- I just don't know this person at all, though I recognize the name from many of the blonkaments over the past year or 18 months, so I know that Julkeus has the experience part covered pretty good. Julkeus also finished 22nd overall on the BBT4 leaderboard over 44 events played, so he obviously has some skills to speak of as well and is not one of these "get lucky once and done" kind of guys. My biggest issue with Julkeus seems to be the way he finishes his tournaments, as from 9 final tables in the BBT4, he managed to win just $339 and change. With full tilt only awarding the 10k prize packages to the top two finishers in Sunday's Tournament of Champions, I have some doubts about Julkeus's ability to play with the aggression and sense of timing required to last all the way down to the end in what for many players will be the biggest poker tournament of their lives. I will say 20 to 1 for Julkeus to win the big one.

karmarules -- Don't know this person at all. Terrible name, I can tell you that, and one that seems likely to be used by a multi-accounting blogger as much as anyone else. But karma played in exactly two BBT events, and stopped as soon as he/she won one of them, so the experience factor has to cut against this person come ToC time. Absent any other information, I will have to put this person in the pile of ToC participants who don't know most of us, haven't played with us, and as far as I know could be in way over their heads when the final table rolls in on Sunday. 28 to 1.

kickyourace -- I don't know anything about this person either, although some of the guys on the radio the other night seemed to know something about him. I think maybe someone said he was a Riverchasers guy. So that's seventeen one strike against his chances right off the bat. He played 8 of the BBT4 tournaments, cashing in 2 and winning his ToC seat in one of them, so he knows how to play and at least has some experience playing against the group of people he is likely to have sitting at his table come Sunday evening. Based on the limited information I have, I will lay the odds here of winning one of the two 10k prize packages on Sunday at 24 to 1.

lucko21 -- Lucko has been a great tournament player at various times over the past couple of years, although as I have mentioned here in a similar post last year, one of the more streaky players out there in terms of his results. Clearly lucko has the skill to win one of the 10k prizes in the ToC, and he also has run extremely well, almost sickly well, in the blogger tournaments over the past year or so, so he's got that working for him as well. The biggest factors cutting against Lucko winning the seat is that he did not play well or make particularly good decisions in the BBT3 ToC -- he sat at my table for much of that event as I recall -- and more importantly, he just doesn't play a whole lot of poker tournaments anymore from what I understand. Despite these potential shortcomings, however, we've all seen what Lucko can do when given some nice cards and/or 7 or 8 suckouts in the earlygoing of one of our private tournaments, so he is clearly way above average regardless of not having played much recently. 11 to 1.

mclarich -- I don't know a whole lot about mclarich, other than that I recall him winning a few blogger tournaments over the past couple of years of playing together with our group, so there is at least some history of winning there. That said, I am showing him as having played 14 BBT4 events, and only making the top 25% in three of them, and final tabling (and winning) just one. That isn't terrible -- winning a ToC seat in 14 tries is pretty great, actually -- but overall it is not indicative of someone playing great poker or someone on whom I would want to bet a lot to be alive at the very end of the ToC against all of the best players who participated in the BBT4 over the past few months. Despite knowing he has won a few other blonkaments in the past, I'm thinking around 24 to 1 here to be one of the last two players standing on Sunday.

OK that's all I got for today. Thank you again to Al for making all of this possible, not once but several times over the past two-plus years. I will be back tomorrow with a new crop of 8 or 9 ToC runners and my feelings on their chances to win their way into the 2009 World Series of Poker Main Event!

BBT4 Ends, and ToC Odds

It was another fabulous Spring weekend for the Hammer Family in New York, which meant plenty of time outside with Hammer Wife and the kids, and, of course, plenty of time alone with my new grill. And boy did I grill up a storm. Just this weekend, the outdoor cooking menu included hamburgers, hot dogs, sausages, filet mignon, asparagus, french toast, and, the piece de resistance, barbecue chicken and shrimp kabobs with peppers, onions, tomatoes and pineapples. The wonders of outdoor grilling are still shocking me almost daily, and I find myself wondering how I could have managed to make it more than three decades in this world without ever having experienced the luxury of my own grill. These days it seems like almost every night (and day) I am either thinking of what to prepare next, shopping for the next grilled meal, or out there actually cooking up over the open flame. Over the next week or two I will be looking to reproduce the delicious barbecued chicken from my kabobs for an entire meal, in addition to hopefully firing it up for some lobster tails and, eventually, a nice rack of barbecued ribs so I can feel like a real grillin machine.

Aside from the time with the family, there was poker. Lots and lots of poker. Aside from one brutal day (thank you full tilt), I continued assailing the heads-up sitngos on three different poker sites, and made such a nice chunk of change doing so that I eventually stepped up to buyins I have not spent much time playing, eking out a small profit in the process and causing myself to further wonder just how high you have to move up before donkeys aren't reraising allin preflop with A9o and the like. And then of course there was the BBT4, which ended with a bang on Sunday with Don's last Big Game, as well as with the Asshat Frat Crew hitting Buddydank Radio in force, which I have to say was once again a good time. Performance-wise, I of course skipped the ghey Brit thing as the timing could not be worse, but I managed to hold on through more than 2/3 of the field in the Big Game before finally losing a race -- to Tuscaloosa John, natch -- to bust in I think 13th place overall out of 41 runners. I can't complain about the results I guess, especially when you consider that I didn't make a single good play in the entire night's tournament when it comes right down to it. I had the extreme pleasure of being gifted a courtesy double-up late in the first hour when I was dealt my only premium hand of the night (over several tournaments and several hours, mind you) in pocket Aces, I flat called a re-reraise preflop from a guy I can't remember and then proceeded to call his allin on the raggy flop, to which he sheepishly flipped up K5o unimproved. But other than that, my stack barely climbed above that mark over the ensuing two hours and in the end I was left with a preflop allin against the mighty pocket 3s, which held up as has been common for me over the course of the BBT4, and IGH just out of the final table. My story in the Big Game Mulligan was eerily similar, where I lasted to the final table before losing two out of two races and then eventually getting called when I raised allin with 12 outs twice and failed to hit. Natch. On the night overall, I ended 1 for 5 in race situations, and for those of you who haven't figured this out yet, that is simply a recipe for disaster, from which no success can be expected given how push-festy these things always become as the end approaches given the structure and the starting stacks.

Again, not that I'm going to complain overall about my results in the BBT4. I'll have more on this later in the week, but overall I will have finished solidly in the top 20 in BBT points for the second straight BBT series, this one while missing over 30% of the total events due to prior engagements, and while running pretty piss-poor horribly over the entire stretch overall. What's more, I managed to cash for more than $1230 over those 39 events, which I think translates to an overall BBT4 ROI of about 119%. Again, given how generally horribly I have run throughout the BBT this time around, these are all figures with which I am extremely pleased overall. But dam have I run poorly. I would estimate that I probably ran about 20 percentage points below mathematical expectation overall over the series, meaning that my dominating favorites won only maybe slightly more than half the time, I raced at about a 30% clip, and my 12-outers hit at more like a 20% success rate. What can I do about that, I don't know, but suffice it to say, I am not running well in the blonkaments overall, and I won't have a shot to win one of the two 10k WSOP prize packages available in next Sunday's BBT4 Tournament of Champions unless I find a way to make something happen for myself.

Speaking of which, part of what I want to spend this week doing here on the blog is reviewing each participant in the ToC and giving my personal assessment of their chances of nabbing one of those two WSOP packages on Sunday night. This is similar to what we did on Sunday night on BDR, but I thought I can give my own thoughts in a little more detail and without drunkass Don's hideous oddsmaking to distract you all from what I think about the players. This is way too much for even me to write in one post, so my plan will be to review the 43 ToC runners' chances in groups of roughly 8 per day, starting with today. I'm not going to group people into different classes of player or other breakdowns like we've seen elsewhere, but rather just take them all in random order and give my unbiased and objective thoughts on each's chances of taking down one of the two grand prizes in the ToC.

So, let's start with the first guy in alphabetical order:

125Will. Buddy revealed last night that this is a multiple account for another blogger, which I can't say I am a fan of in the least, but I do like the guy in question and I respect his poker skills overall. That said, I also do not think that no-limit holdem is 125Will's best game, although he has recorded some decent wins at the game. With 43 runners in the ToC overall, and thus an average of 21.5 to 1 against winning one of the two big prizes for the player of "average" skill, I would put 125Will right around that average level, somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 to 1. The combination of no-limit not being his strongest game combined with him not playing regularly with such a large prize on the line make it no more likely than roughly average that he finishes in one of the top two spots.

1Queensup1. What more can you say about the job that 1Queensup1 did in the BBT4? Greenfish ended up the overall points leader in BBT4, recording 15 final tables in 52 BBT4 events, 33.5 BBT points per event, and a whopping $2290 and change won to make him not only the overall points leader but the overall cash leader as well. It was more or less a total decimation of the field in the BBT4, ranging over nearly every single event in the entire series, and in the end I just don't see how Queensup is not the overall odds-on favorite to win his way into the WSOP ME via the upcoming BBT4 ToC. If average is 21 to 1 against winning one of the two grand prizes, I'm thinking Queensup is probably somewhere around 5 to 1 to finish in the top two. On the radio on Sunday a couple of the AFC guys kept quoting odds lower than this, but I just don't see how anybody is better than around 5 to 1 when they still need to outlast 40 of the other 42 donkeys playing in this thing.

actyper. I don't really know a whole lot about actyper, other than my original notes on him from a year or so ago where I had indicated that he actually knows how to play this game a little bit. That said, actyper only played in 6 of the 56 BBT4 tournaments overall, and that makes me think his chances of winning another are not as great as those who have more recent experience playing four or more times a week with their blogger brethren. Plus, his one win came in the ghey Brit thing, which is barely worth mentioning when compared to the kind of stress and the pressure knowing what will be on the line in next Sunday's ToC. With all this, I see actyper as somewhere around the average, maybe 23 to 1 against winning his way into the ME on Sunday.

Aposec72. Aposec has been playing with the bloggers for some time now -- I feel like I recall seeing him as far back as the old WWdN tournaments on pokerstars -- and I know Chad last night mentioned thinking that Aposec is tighter and more solid than most of the bloggers in the upcoming ToC. I have not quite had that experience with this particular player -- not that I have noted him being bad, but he's not one of those guys I think of as particularly dangerous among the crown who has qualified for the BBT4 Tournament of Champions. Aposec played in 19 events in BBT4, not enough to have amassed the experience that could be the thing that pushes someone over the edge on a big call or fold late in the ToC, and more than that, in those 19 events Aposec managed to amass just 15 BBT points per event. Personally I just don't see what compels me to give Aposec better than average odds to win a seat in the ToC. Let's say 28 to 1.

Asphnxma. F-Train qualified real early for the ToC in the BBT4, and I actually think this cuts against him as once again I think a lack of familiarity with the players in the ToC can only hurt one's chances of surviving what is sure to be a grueling, tough field. In fact, F-Train has barely played any blonkaments over the past few years, and, as far as I know, he's not by a long shot a no-limit specialist in any event. I think F-Train's game is more limit poker than no-limit, and frankly I don't even know how much he really plays the game these days as a rule. So the guy does not know the styles of most of the bloggers he'll be up against in the ToC, he does not play many tournaments, and he does not play much no-limit as it is. All that does not bode well for his chances of winning his way into the ToC in my view. 30 to 1.

Bone Daddy. Eric is a good guy and someone with whom I have spent some time in Vegas over the past couple of years. Despite enjoying the occasional superdonk play, BD knows the game and has shown over time an ability to win a blogger tournament if he gets a lil bit of cardage to get him started off early with a nice stack. BD can also be deceptively tricky if you're not careful, which should serve him well again if he can pick up some good cards or solid flops in the earlygoing on Sunday. That said, BD tends in my experience to get a little jumpy early if things aren't going his way, which I think is borne out by his only making 5 final tables in 32 BBT4 events, the fewest of anyone who finished in the top 26 on the final BBT4 leaderboard. Given that he will have to end in the top 2 spots in order to win the big prizes, BD is a dangerous person if he gets some chips, but he's likely to have a long row to hoe in order to reach the promised land. Overall, out of respect for his sneakiness, I will say 19 to 1 for Bone Daddy.

Buddydank. Buddy is a good player as his BBT4 performance has shown, but dayummm the guy is tight as hell. And tight does not generally do well overall in the blonkaments, especially given how aggro some of you donkeys can really be. That said, Buddy played in 42 events and made 10 final tables, winning won and nabbing $930 cash along the way, so the guy has demonstrated skills in these things. And more than that, with the 12 minute levels and super stacks that the ToC features this time around, Buddy will have more time than usual to wait out the pocket Aces and pocket Kings that Buddy plays almost exclusively (and seems to receive far more than his fair share of). I think his skill combines with the structure of the ToC to create a decently better than average shot for Buddy to win one of the 10k prize packages, I would say somewhere around 14 to 1 against for the illustrious BDR host.

Columbo. We said it time and again on the radio show on Sunday night, but Columbo is a guy whose game has improved noticeably over the few years I have been playing regular blogger tournaments with him. Unlike many of the other players in this year's ToC, Ray is also someone who tends to actually analyze his play a lot more than most people I know. I picked columbo to win a ToC seat about halfway through the series, and most of those same reasons apply to giving him a somewhat better than average chance in the upcoming ToC. That said, the one thing that prevents me from picking columbo too strongly is his experience in getting real deep in the BBT4 events -- in playing 53 of the 56 events in the series, Ray managed to amass only $292 and change in cashes, which tells me that he can make the top 25% for the points, but that he has been playing a little bit too tight in the early and mid stages of these things to allow himself the opportunity to start building that all-important big stack early. Balancing everything out, I still think columbo is a better than average shot to win one of the ME seats in the ToC -- let's say something like 16 to 1.

Cracknaces. This will be the last donkey I will review today. Other than the top 5 on the BBT4 leaderboard, Chad is without a doubt the best chance there is of nabbing the WSOP ME seat. Not to mention, he's probably the single best chance of everyone on the board to actually do well once he gets in to the Main Event in any event. In addition to being an all-around very solid poker tournament player, Chad makes some of the best on-the-spot decisions of any tournament player I watch regularly, and I know he has the drive to win at least as much as anybody out there. Like me, Chad's biggest issue in the ToC will probably be getting some good cards to play with, and not tilting when the inevitable happens, but if he can get off to a big stack early, he is sure to be a force to be reckoned with as the tournament wears on and the pressure increases. Add to this the fact that Chad is experiencing one of the best runs of his entire career just now -- including winning outright the Mini Series of Poker #3 event in Limit O8 this past weekend, followed up by a near miss for a WSOP ME seat in a full tilt free roll, and then a 12k cash in the pokerstars 100k guaranteed just while the Big Game and Big Game Mulligan were going on. Even if he is playing 9 other tournaments at once during the ToC, there's no way I'm laying Chad at worse than 7 to 1 to win the big one.

OK that's all for today. Another batch of 8 or 9 ToC runners coming tomorrow. For now, it's off to the grillhouse to see what's in store for me in the world of outdoor cooking tonight.