Saturday, June 06, 2009

BBT4 ToC Odds -- The Rest of the Field

Wow have I been taking some sickass suckouts lately. More than usual. And they're the kind of suckouts where I am a few outs away from having a really big stack, and serious chip utility, only to find myself suddenly looking at the tournament lobby screen, having to re-check the hand history to even try to figure out whatthefuck just happened. As much as I hate running bad, I hate even more going through a string of suckouts heading into a tournament that I am more looking forward to than maybe any individual poker event this year (so far, not counting my upcoming WSOP foray later this month). The BBT4 Tournament of Champions is this Sunday night, June 7, at 8pm ET on full tilt, and I will be opening up the blog all day on Sunday, updating live throughout the day heading up to the ToC, and hopefuly sticking around well into the evening updating my own progress as the ToC wears into its later hours. And speaking of the BBT4 Tournament of Champions, without further adieu let me get to my predictions for the rest of the field that I have not already covered in my prior couple of posts. In alpha order, starting with those I have not yet covered:

Dr. Pauly -- Pauly is a solid poker player, and is always a danger to make a deep run using his ability to extract chips from his opponents, where Pauly is better than many in this field. That said, Pauly is far too busy with his writing to play much with this group anymore, and as a result my suspicion is that Pauly's poker skill will be outweighed somewhat by his inexperience against this particular field of blonkeys. With an average odds of 21 to 1 against, Pauly's still going to fare better than average, coming in I think right around 15 to 1.

Miami Don -- Don is an interesting pick for the ToC. He only played in 26 of the 56 BBT4 tournaments, but in those 26 appearances Don amassed more than 28 points per event on his way to 5 final tables and over $1220 in cash winnings. Don's solid BBT performance combined with an equally solid run in the most recent Bodonkey to demonstrate his ability to play against the bloggers. Don is another guy whose chances to win one of the two 10k WSOP prize packages is solidly above average, probably coming in at around 11 to 1.

nightranger -- StB plays under the handle "nightranger" on full tilt and is another guy who has demonstrated skill in maximizing value from his strong hands. Although StB has won several blonkaments in his day, those days were mostly some time ago, and as a rule we don't see StB in our regular games with anywhere near the frequency that was once the case. In the end I know that StB can play the game, but I think his odds of winning one of the top two prizes are right around average given his lack of recent experience against most of the rest of the ToC field. 22 to 1.

pushmonkey72 -- I really owe pushmonkey one, because it was he who almost singlehandedly put my one and only lifetime Mookie championship on a silver platter for the taking earlier in the BBT4. But despite that one act of undying kindness for which I will feel eternal gratitude, I think pushmonkey is a very long shot to finish in the top 2 in Sunday's Tournament of Champions. I know push has won a few blonkaments over time, but I've just seen too many poor decisions to think him likely to last against this particular field of BBT4 tournament winners. 35 to 1.

pvanharibo -- Obviously pvan has the skill to win the ToC. LJ has the aggression that all great poker tournament players live and breathe, and she's shown that she can do it on a large stage several times over, both in the blogger tournaments and elsewhere. On top of that, she tends to hit when she needs to and the bloggers fold to her like it's going out of style. The only thing the rest of the field has going for it is that pvan had a pretty horrible BBT4 overall, certainly by her standards. I will temper the odds a bit as a result of her cold streak in BBT4 tournaments, but we're still looking at 15 to 1 for pvan to take this thing down.

qrs1 -- I don't know who this guy is, and I only saw him start showing up in the BBT4 somewhere near the end of the series. Having only played 12 tournaments total in the challenge, qrs still somehow managed to finish in 36th place on the series leaderboard overall. Although the guy popped up with 6 final tables in those 12 tournaments, I have to scale the odds down somewhat based on some of the plays I saw made along the way during the BBT4. Not knowing anything else about who this guy is, I will lay his odds of winning at around 20 to 1.

rake feeder -- Rake won I think the very first tournament of the BBT this time around, besting me in heads-up play at the series-opening Big Game. Rake also showed up for 28 events, meaning that he participated in fully half of the events of the entire challenge, so he's mixed it up with the group playing in Sunday's ToC sufficiently often to know what's what. The thing about Rake that makes me a bit dubious about his chances of running deep is that in those 28 BBT4 tournaments, it was just three final tables and 3 ITM finishes. That tells me that Rake's game is a bit hit or miss, and that regardless of his early performance, he simply does not have the late game skills that many of his competitors in this field are sure to bring to the table this weekend. It will take some very fortunate situations for Rake to last down to the final two. 29 to 1.

rubbishat -- No idea who this is. But they have the word "rubbish" in their name, and it looks like in his one win out of 6 tries was for a lofty $67. Thus, we're looking at another guy who plays exclusively in the $5 Brit gheyness, and thus someone who plays low and who doesn't have much experience against the rest of this field on top. 40 to 1.

Shabazz Jenkins -- I've said this several times, but Shabazz is a good poker player, one I have seen and played with deep in tournaments on multiple occasions over the past year or so. Shabazz crushed in the BBT4, finishing 51 events in 3rd place overall on the leaderboard, with over $1600 cash won and as one of the small handful of players who ended the series with more than 30 BBT points per event over more than 30 tournaments. Despite playing so well in the blogger events, I think Shabazz is a bit of a sleeper in the Toc just because he hasn't been around for too too long and since he only won outright one of the series' 56 tournaments. Shabazz is clearly one of the favorites in this field in my book. 9 to 1.

ShipFaced -- I know nothing about who ShipFaced is. What I do know is that the guy played just 8 BBT4 tournaments, and somehow he managed to win two of those eight tournaments. I don't know what to do with that information since I haven't a clue who this guy is, but I suppose he's gotta be in the top half of the field after that impressive performance over just a handful of events. Plus, on BDR last week someone said he won a Mookie along the way, so you know he's got mad skillz. I'll stick ShipFaced just a bit above average, at 18 to 1 to win one of the 10k packages.

SmBoatDrinks -- Here is a guy who's been playing with the bloggers for a couple of years at least, and I've seen the name several times during that period, so I know he has the requisite experience against this field to at least prevent experience from being a detriment to his chances in the BBT4 ToC. What's more, Boat also finished the BBT in 19th place on the overall leaderboard, making 8 final tables in 43 appearances along the way. The biggest knock against Boat's BBT performance is that he has only been able to turn those 8 final tables into $400 cash, which indicates not many late runs and more than his fair share of early final table bustouts. The good overall performance gets Boat into the picture in my view, but it's not enough to punch solidly into the top half of the field. 18 to 1.

smokkee -- Smokkee is definitely one of the two or three tightest players in this year's BBT4 ToC field. Normally this is not a reliable path to success in a tournament where you need to finish in the top 2 out of a strong, aggressive field, but I don't know that I can ever recall seeing someone on a heater of good luck like smokkee has been on over the past month or two. Anybody who can just foldfoldfold to the final table and then reliably expect KK>QQ>JJ and AK>KQ on a King-high flop cannot possibly ever be far out of this tournament, and when you throw in that the guy has been winning races late in tournaments over the past few weeks at probably an 85% clip, and smokkee has to be well into the top part of the field for the upcoming ToC. Since his success remains based on a mathematically flawed strategy that only works due to some of the sickest luck I've ever seen, I can't put smokkee in the top tier of players, but he is a solid second-tier with very good chances of running deep given his recent performances. 12 to 1.

tgrazz -- I don't know who this player is either, other than to say that the guy suckout-eliminated me from not one but two tournaments during the BBT4. And that while playing only 18 of the 56 BBT4 tournaments overall. In those 18 events, however, tgrazz made just 3 final tables and scored under 18 BBT points per game overall, which indicates not a lot of late strength in his tournament game. Combine that with very little experience playing against this group overall, and we're looking at another below average chance to win the big shit on Sunday. 33 to 1.

Tony Eusebio -- I don't know much about Tony to be honest, but he seemed to be friendly with a few people here and there who played in the BBT this time around. Tony finished the BBT4 in 24th place, with 6 final tables in 31 events played. His points per game was respectable, and I don't recall him making any embarrassing plays, outside of the Skillz game where I'm stil cleaning up the barf from some of the calls I saw. As the ToC is a no-limit event and with Tony having performed well overall in the BBT, I think his lack of familiarity with some of the players will keep his odds down close to average overall. 20 to 1.

Tuscaloosa John -- What can I say that hasn't already been said about Tuscaloosa John and his incredible BBT prowess? Not only did TJ run roughshod over the BBT4 field, including 14 final tables and over $2200 in cashes over 50 tournaments, but he's done it before as well -- TJ won not one but two of the montly 2k prizes from last summer's BBT3 as it is. All this is a long way of saying, TJ has repeatedly beat down on the bloggers over a sustained period of time, and he appears to have this format really down pat as far as having figured out how to survive to make a run at the end of these things. Of course, winning almost every race I saw him in over the past month doesn't hurt either. There's no way TJ is less than 7 to 1 to win one of the big prizes in Sunday's Tournament of Champions.

Vinnay -- Vinnay won his way into the BBT4 Tournament of Champions just a couple of days after I had called him out for never winning the Mookie, ending the challenge in 46th place on the overall leaderboard. Despite showing up for 20 BBT4 events, in general I don't think Vinnay has quite the experience against this type of field that most of the other participants in the ToC will have, and on top of that I also note that Vinnay made just three final tables in those 20 tournaments played. Overall this stacks up to a slightly worse than average shot at the big prizes on Sunday, probably around 25 to 1 against.

And that rounds out everybody playing in the BBT4 Tournament of Champions on Sunday night at 8pm ET. Everybody except for me, that is. As I mentioned on BDR the other night, I feel like I surely have the skill to make the kind of deep run needed to nab one of the 10k WSOP prize packages in this thing. I had a solid BBT overall, finishing in 15th place on the leaderboard while making 7 final tables and more than $1200 over 39 events played. But, if I am to make the deep run I know I am capable of, I will need to get some good situations along the way, either in the form of decent cards, hitting some flops, or at the least having some of my 57% and 52% hands hold up when I need them. And unfortunately for me, the story of my BBT4 has been more or less the total opposite of that, as I always seem to be the guy losing the key race, missing the 14 outs twice in a key spot, and just generally not being afforded the opportunity to wait out the good spots nearly as much as many of the others who really killed this time around in the BBT. And with the way I have been running lately, it seems almost a certainty that I will get suckout- or luckout-eliminated somewhere along the way in the upcoming ToC. My poker skill matches up well againsts the totality of this field, but I am simply nowhere near the top of the list as far as actual chances of winning the big shit. 15 to 1.

OK that's all for now. I will update the Hoy live blog right here on Sunday as often as I can, at least until I get sucked out on by some douchebag who would jizz all over himself if he even thought about winning 10k in a poker tournament. That should be good for an hour or so at least after the 8pm start time of the ToC, but look for me here ahead of that for some good old-fashioned live blogging of my poker day.

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Blogger StB said...

Nice job with the odds. Think you pretty much nailed it.

3:56 AM  
Blogger SmBoatDrinks said...

Great Job Hoy!

Good luck to everyone tonight!!!

4:22 AM  
Blogger jjok said...

boom? ;)

11:42 AM  
Blogger BLAARGH! said...

FWIW, I happened upon rubbish's blog today by sheer coincidence. Turns out he's a she, and pretty funny. Def worth a read. She's definitely a brit blogger, not sure if she's pro or not - seems like she might be.

Also fwiw, nice job on the toc last night, sorry you didn't win a seat, you dominated pretty much the whole thing.

1:21 AM  

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