Wednesday, May 20, 2009

BBT4 Almost Done

OK so we've got tonight's Mookie, then next Sunday's Brit thing, the Big Game, Monday's Riverchasers, Tuesday's "skillz" event and then the final Mookie a week from tonight left in the BBT4. That is what, six events left before the BBT4 Tournament of Champions which is scheduled for Sunday, June 7. That's six more tries for all of you out there without ToC seats to nab yours at the last minute here, six more tries for Jordan to win yet another BBT4 title, and six more tries for those of you who have already claimed ToC seats to do whatever you can to keep other good players out of the series-ending tournament where two WSOP Main Event packages will be awarded in addition to I believe two more 2k WSOP prize packages.

The last time I took stock of the BBT4, it was just over halfway through the challenge. In that post, I took some time to review who I thought had a good chance of winning seats into the Tournament of Champions during the second half of the tournament series. Here's what I wrote, back on April 21:

Who to look for to win ToC seats in the second half of the BBT4? I like NewinNov to nab a seat, as he always seems to be hanging around late in these things and has the game to get it done, and is playing well so far in BBT4. Twoblackaces is also a pretty good bet to be in the TOC come series-end is my guess, based on his very solid record of blonkament wins over a relatively short period of time. Evil Wonka is also a good bet to win his way in, and I would add PirateLawyer to the list as well, especially given the existence of the weekly Skillz event and Mookie where PL tends to excel the most. I could see Columbo finding his way in to the ToC sometime in the next month and a half despite a rough beginning for him to 2009, and I would not be surprised if NumbBono also finds his way in after winning 50 Mookies and several other blonkaments over the past year or so if I recall correctly. JD Schellnut is another guy who seems to find a way to win the big blonkaments just often enough to get in to the ToC, and I would say the same thing about Astin who often likes to sneak in late to the series-ending blowout tournaments, often with the help of his Ace-changing machine that can change any hole card to an Ace with one click of a button on his ftp poker client. Lastly, I would guess that at least one of LJ and Bayne, two players with little BBT4 success to show for several tournaments played in so far, will end up in the ToC. LJ alone has probably won the most cash outside of the BBT out of anyone who has entered even one tournament since the BBT4 began, and it is likely only a matter of time before she busts out with a big BBT win of her own this time around.

So let's see how I did, shall we? Of the people I named in that April 21 post, only two have gone on to nab their ToC seats thus far -- Columbo, about five seconds after I posted to that effect, and then LJ who took down the limit holdem Skillz event this week in what can only be described as a total donk-a-thon, with nothing but push and pray poker for the entire final 90 minutes at least. I got sucked out on by some clown allin on four separate occasions on the night, and I laid a couple of nasty ones myself, which there is just no way to avoid when the structure and the low Ms mean just about every hand is allin preflop or at least on the flop by the time we're down to the final two tables. So LJ and Columbo are already in, and with six events left, I figured I would go out on a limb and make some more predictions about those upcoming half-dozen events.

The guy I have my eye on most to win one of these final six events is twoblackaces. TBA doesn't have a win yet in this BBT series, but he's played almost every event so you know he will make himself available in these last few shots to get in. And despite being an accomplished blonkament player and winner in general over just a year, year and a half of playing regularly with this group, TBA is also currently in 27th place on the BBT4 leaderboard, so he's stringing some good runs together. Of course predicting that anyone will win a tournament in just six tries is a stretch to say the least, but I say TBA has as good a chance as anyone of finding his way in somewhere during these last handful of BBT4 tournaments.

Next, I'm going to mention another guy who was already included in my earlier list -- NewinNov. Newin has crushed the Bodonkey regularly and has played his way into 9th place on the current BBT4 leaderboard, while also posting nearly perfect attendance at the BBT4 events so far, so he has got to be right at the top of the list for these last six upcoming events. Newin always seems to be hanging around at the midpoint of these things, so he plays with the kind of tightness early that most of us understand is necessary to win the BBT events, and as I said I expect him to be ready and willing for all or most of the remaining tournaments, so I look for Newin to make some noise here in the final couple weeks of play.

Anybody who doesn't think Tuscaloosa Johnny or 1Queensup1 can't win another of the final few events simply hasn't been paying attention throughout this series. Those two guys have utterly crushed the field so far in the BBT4, and each has posted 12 in-the-money finishes in just 44 or 45 events, so they're lasting well into the final table at a better than 1-in-4 pace. Each of them will be around near the end of at least one more of the six remaining events, of that I am fairly certain.

And speaking of BBT4 world beaters, I would be remiss if I did not bring up the aforementioned Jordan, who has done nothing in the BBT but win four events in just 24 attempts. Now, while 24 tournaments is certainly enough to draw some conclusions, if I, personally, were ranking the players, I would put a minimum events played of probably 30 or 35 out of the 55 total tournaments in order to do a fair comparison and make sure we are dealing with statistically significant sample sizes. Despite that, however, 4 wins in 24 attempts is what it is, and what it is is simply amazing. I do not foresee Jordan's good run continuing with a 5th BBT4 tournament victory though in the past two weeks here, but to suggest it isn't highly possible is sheer folly. The same can be said about heffmike, who has also won three events in this challenge and has shown a knack for hanging around to the end of the tournaments in the series.

Other players who I have a feeling could make some late noise in the BBT4 and find their way into the ToC include Ddionysus, cracknKK who has been showing up more and more lately, and fellow asshat frat crew member Scottymc.

With six shots to go, and the fields seemingly bottomed out at around the 40 range in most of the week's events, there's a good chance for just about anyone who wants a seat to get in. All you need to do is survive for two hours, then once you're in Push and Pray time, just push. And pray. Whoever's luck holds out the longest, wins. And I'm betting at least one of those winners will be from among the people listed right here in this post. And lord knows I will be there to try to donate to the cause when they suck out on me along the way.

Oh, one more thing: Tuesday night, another game with A-Rod batting behind him, and another home run for Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira. That's 9-2 now in the 11 games since A-Rod returned from steroid punishment book embarrassment hip surgery. Who would have ever thought this team would need Alex Rodriguez as badly as they obviously do? Joe Girardi might just have saved his ass with A-Rod coming back, and Tex could be on his way to a powerful first season in New York after all despite his slowass start in the batter's box.

See you all tonight for the Mookie.

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Blogger Shrike said...

I've hardly been playing in the second half of the BBT -- which certainly impacted the accuracy of your predictions when you put my name on your "most likely to succeed" list -- but I do think I will play the Mookie and the Big Game this week. Time to squeak in at the deadline!


1:44 AM  
Blogger Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

PL -- don't worry, winning the Mookie is easy peasy. Just play super solid poker and I'm sure you will get in tonight.

2:43 AM  
Blogger Shrike said...

Some would argue I am incapable of doing so. It's certainly beneficial having that reputation when you want to get paid off on big hands! ;)


5:35 AM  

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