Bad Luck, Bad Result in the ToC

Well the BBT5 Tournament of Champions has come and gone, with three of our brethren winning themselves $10,000 prize packages and another two more nabbing $2,000 prize packages along the way. Unfortunately, my name is not among them.

What happened, you may wonder, given my solid confidence yesterday heading in to the big game?

It's pretty simple, really. I started off the ToC playing like a total spewmonkey, and the cards were just not with me. I lost a big pot within minutes when I correctly put xkm on a lower pair to my QQ on a 478 board, but I opted not to raise, thinking I could extract some more chips from what I figured would likely be another lead bet on the turn if an Ace or King did not fall. When the turn brought a 9 which also put a flush draw on the board, I opted to just call xkm's bet once again, again correctly reasoning that I was ahead but not wanting to go nuts with the possible straight having filled a couple of times now, and given the deep stacks we had in this event thanks to Al and Full Tilt. When the river brought an ugly, despicable Ten, runner-runnering to a 4-card straight, I felt compelled to make the crying call of xkm's fairly small bet of around 40% of the pot, although of course I was less than thrilled to do so. What's that? Why didn't I raise this hand on the flop or the turn? Well, the stacks are so deep, and I was afraid xkm might have a decent pair lower than mine which I was afraid he might just push in with. And do I want to get it all in this early in a super stack, slow structure tournament with just an overpair of Queens? The reason I don't is, well, I would have busted on this hand if I had. xkm flipped up JJ on the river for the sick runner runner straight, and I was down below 4000 from the 5k starting stacks within just minutes of beginning. I did not play that hand optimally I don't think, but I am pretty sure xkm is not going away with the overpair, which means again that I literally would have gotten allin on the flop, been a 9-to-1 favorite with two cards to come, and then busted on just about the worst runner-runner rivering ever if I had. So instead I chose to keep the pot small but still ended up taking it on the chin at the river.

From here though I slowly regained my composure, made a number of huge plays, some of them with the goods and some of them as bluffy as I get, and by the end of the first hour, I was just over 5300 chips, back above the starting stack and ready to get my aggro on in Hour 2. Which is exactly what I did, slowly chipping my way up as I stole more and more pots, my c-bets finally getting some respect, and before I knew it, I was in second place in the tournament (with jj ahead of me, of course).

And then I ran KK into AA. As I've often said here, I have never yet run into the situation where I would fold KK preflop, but in this case there was so much dead money already in the pot thanks to a half-stack reraise preflop from xkm after I had raised it up with pocket Kings in early position, that I just felt like a total tool if I did not play this hand for stacks after a third player raised it up as well, trying to make a move on what certainly looked like a stealy raise from xkm. Well KK into AA it was, allin preflop -- in a spot where I would not possibly have gotten away even on the flop as my Kings were an overpair -- and instead of being the massive chip leader in the tournament with 16 left, I was suddenly a pretty short stack with under 2900 chips remaining.

Fast forward maybe 15 minutes, however, and I had managed to claw my way back to over 6000 chips, having won a nice pot with Aces vs someone else's top pair, and after some failed steals gone bad, we came to the last hand of Hour 2, which saw Goat raise it up 3x from middle position. I have JJ in the small blind, so I do my best impression of a final-minutes-of-the-round resteal and raise it up but not even all in. Goat pauses and ten pushes, I figure must have been beat but I have to call for very few chips remaining into a now large pot, and I am overjoyed to see that I am allin preflop with pocket Jacks up against Goat's pocket 9s. I barely had time to relish a sweet double at the end of the hour when the flop comes 9TQ, giving Goat the flopped set but me an unlikely straight draw. My straight miraculously filled with the 8 on the turn, but the rivered Ten sealed my fate, and I was done in the mid teens.

So how did I go out so fast in the BBT5 Tournament of Champions after being so confident going in yesterday? Runner-runnered for 20% of my stack five minutes in against a guy who bet me repeatedly while he was hopelessly behind in the hand. Amass large stack, but then run KK into AA in a 3-way pot. Then rebuild again to near average and then lose JJ to 99 allin preflop. Anybody out there know how to still be alive after all that in a no-limit tournament? Me neither.

Good times, this poker thingie.

Huge, huge congratulations go out to JJ today for winning the 10k prize for the second straight year in the BBT ToC. JJ is like the Cris Carter of the BBT -- all he does is win tournaments. Seriously, that is an incredible feat to win this grand prize two years running, and it could not happen to a better guy, or to a more deserving guy. For reals -- JJ was the prohibitive chip leader in this tournament after about 30 minutes in, and he held the prohibitive chip lead basically all the way to and into the final table. He quickly got himself into position at the top of the leaderboard, and he simply did not look back, period. He played the best and he took down the grand prize, along with NYRambler who also nabbed a 10k seat, in addition to Adam 27x. The 2k "consolation prizes" were won by KeepFloppin and adamsapple19, although I have to admit I did not stay up to watch the end of the final table. I think I made it until near 1am but eventually had to hang em up for the night, although I did let JJ know in the girly chat that I was going to sleep knowing in full confidence that he would win, and I can't say it was the least bit of a surprise when I confirmed that confidence this morning. What a run out of JJ in the last couple of BBTs, especially given his limited appearances in the actual tournaments comprising either BBT series.

Will JJ play the WSOP Main Event this year? Will he blog about his experiences there? My two cents for JJ: Take the hint, man! No-God, fate, kismet, the Island, Jacob -- whoever it is, someone is trying to tell you something. Obviously, you are fated to play the WSOP Main Event. The Rio isn't finished with you yet! So I say you give in to fate and get your ass to Vegas next month for the granddaddy of them all, get that mug on tv, and rocket past Iggy's incredible finish in the ME a few years back to show everyone what you can do after learning to thoroughly dominate the poker bloggers like no one else has ever done.

The BBT5 was a great ride for everyone involved, and although of course I cannot say that I was pleased with my luck in the series-ending ToC, I am certainly thankful both to Al and to full tilt for their generosity and their hard work in setting up and handling the logistics of a series like this. And although I would have loved to have been included in the ToC winners' list this time around, like I said it could not have happened to a more deserving bunch of people than this year's winners. Best of luck to everyone, and hopefully those who won prizes will find their way out to Las Vegas this summer and to write about their experiences so that people like me and many, many others who read can live vicariously through them, and so that full tilt hopefully continues to see the value in putting on huge promotions like this for us lowly bunch of poker wonks in the future.

BBT5 ToC Odds

So that's it. The BBT5 is over. Probably the last ever BBT tournament series, right? Right? Seriously, with Al's frustration bubbling over several times in this series -- at least a few times my fault -- and him once again having to go through all the bullshit that comes with running something like this, I can't see him doing it again. But then, I suppose a good deal of that decision will depend ultimately on how much full tilt feels they got their money's worth this time around, which at this point remains to be seen as we head into the BBT5 Tournament of Champions this evening. In the past, full tilt has given away thousands upon thousands upon thousands of dollars to various bloggers, and for whatever reason it feels like a good half of them have declined to use those funds to play poker, and thus did not blog about any poker experiences they had thanks to full tilt's generosity. And of the other half who have gone on to use full tilt's funds to play, mostly all of them have really not blogged about the whole thing all that much in any event. There have definitely been a few notable exceptions, but for the most part I imagine that full tilt is still waiting to really get the bang for their buck that they ultimately envision out of these BBT series. Will this be the year? I suppose that depends on who wins tonight's Tournament of Champions.

Before I get into my thoughts on tonight's TOC, with this week's Buddy marking the final event of BBT5, we are now down to the 21 participants who will run for the money in tonight's big event at 10pm ET on full tilt. So we can start off by looking at the people of note who are not going to be in tonight's TOC, many of whom are people I was counting out of the ToC as they were eliminated last night as that was when they were officially eliminated from contention. Among those out of the ToC we have guys who have won against the bloggers and who have had much success in former BBT series such as twoblackaces (out 99th of 101 in the Mookie this week, that musta been interesting), lucko, Bayne, Astin (remember AstinBaynage from back in the first BBT?), heffmike, ck , Don, Chad, columbo , buddydank (eliminated from ToC contention in his own self-named tournament, dayummm that has gotta hurt), Waffles (did not play, pay day must not be for another week), smokkee, Tuscaloosa John, Jordan, 1Queensup1 and many, many others who could have posed problems for anyone in tonight's Tournament of Champions for sure. In fact, the honest truth is that most of the people I have a little bit of respect for in these tournaments are not in the ToC this time around, which is a good thing overall I suppose, but which is also going to make for some very tough going in tonight's field.

And with that, let's move on to the field for tonight's BBT5 Tournament of Champions. I look briefly in the morning just to note that the winner of this week's Buddy was someone I do not recognize and not somebody who has already nabbed a seat, which means as I mentioned that we are looking at a total field of 21 runners for the big prizes. With Shabazz Jenkins recently nabbing his second ToC seat in addition to oossuuu and his 3 ToC seats, that is just three tables of 7 to play it down to three grand prize winners and two more "mini" prize winners. With three 10k WSOP prize packages and two 2k WSOP prize packages being awarded, that means a total of $34,000 being given away for free to tonight's winners, and with 21 runners, that brings the total Blinders-approved(TM) Expected Value of a seat in tonight's ToC is 34,000 / 21 or over $1,619 per seat. If you just play average, do average, and have an average run on the night compared to everyone else, you can expect to win over $1600 on average just for having the right to play in the big game tonight. That is some incredible free swag for a bunch of donkeys who barely even know how to play this game, isn't it? And moreover than the $1600 expected value, a full 5 out of 21 runners will win a nice big fat prize of at least 2k. 5/21 = a 23.8% chance that each one of us will win at least 2k tonight, and a 3/21 or 14.3% chance that each of us will win one of the big momma 10k prize packages.

So here is the field in tonight's BBT5 Tournament of Champions, along with some quick thoughts from me on each, keeping in mind that the average player should be 23.8% (just over 3 to 1) to win a prize and 14.3% (6 to 1) to win a grand prize:

Jim McManus. Author of one of the greatest poker books ever written in Positively Fifth Street and for sure one of the drivers of my obsession with poker over the last several years, McManus has also been to a World Series of Poker Main Event final table, and from watching him I would say the guy can play. I have found him to be a bit on the aggressive side in the BBT events he has played, but that aggression generally works well against this crowd if you know how to wield the power, and McManus has played enough with the big boys to know just that. Add to this the fact that full tilt would cream in its pants if Jim wins this seat and goes on to get the site some solid publicity, and you have to figure that Jim's odds of cashing are somewhat better than your average bear, even against this field of champions and highly-skilled players. I would say Jim is at least 2.5 to 1 to cash and probably around 5 to 1 to win a ME seat tonight.

Adam 27x. Like a number of the entrants in tonight's Tournament of Champions, I don't know anything about Adam 27x. All I do know is that it looks like he played exactly one BBT5 event, and he crushed it. 'Nuff said. I'm still just putting his chances at average tonight though, 3 to 1 to cash and 6 to 1 to win the ME seat, because if nothing else this person will be at a significant disadvantage in terms of knowing the other players around him (like that really hurt him last time).

adamsapple19. This week's Buddy winner is another total mystery to me. He played in five BBT5 tournaments, cashed in two, and final tabled just the one he nabbed his seat in. I don't know him, but he hasn't played against this group much, so I once again see him right about average to cash in the big game. 3:1 to cash and 6:1 to win the 10k seat.

All in At 420. Allin is a professional poker player and is someone who played 6 events in the BBT5. He can obviously play the game and I would say probably has slightly better than the average chances to win a prize in tonight's Tournament of Champions. 2.5 to 1 to cash and 5 to 1 for the ME package.

BamBamCan. BamBam nabbed his ToC seat near the end of the BBT5 in I think the final invitational tournament. Although he always seems to be hanging around late in these blonkaments, I can't say I have many memories of BamBam winning these things outright or playing for the big money. So I would lay BamBam's odds of cashing in the ToC somewhere less than average, maybe around 4 to 1 to cash and 9 or 10 to 1 to win one of the 10k grand prizes.

dignitasODEE. I looked up dignitas on the internet and although this person seems to have some online presence, I do not recall them being an actual online pro of any note. Dignitas played in six BBT5 events and managed to win the one, so like the others who won an event while not playing much against this crowd in general, I think the odds are right around average for dignitas to cash in the ToC, 3:1 to cash and 6:1 for the ME seat.

hoyazo. Although I have not managed to get a good run going in the BBT over the past few weeks since winning my seat early on in the series this time around, I still feel like I am playing a good game of poker overall. I know well the games of over half of the ToC participants, and I have had a lot of success against the bloggers over time. Ever since bubbling out of the BBT4 ToC last year, it feels kinda like I owe myself something here, and as I mentioned, the lack of most of the big, scary guys who could have ended up finding their way into the ToC leaves me feeling like this thing will definitely be mine to lose. Of course anything can happen (and has been happening, lately) in any poker tournament, especially one against this field, so there's just no way to get anyone's odds much above average in any event, but I tend to think of myself in my own pompass way as about 2 to 1 to cash tonight, and maybe 5 to 1 to win one of the big seats.

jjok. What can you even say about this guy? He's played like four BBT tournaments in his life, and he's won them all. Even after I slapped some bad odds on him in last year's Tournament of Champions, he showed us all by claiming one of the WSOP ME seats in the BBT4 ToC. Never one to learn a lesson though, I am going to once again say that jj is not quite active enough, and does not quite have the experience against this field, to have great odds to beat the bloggers in tonight's ToC. Yes, the same bloggers who he was roundly embarrassed almost every time he has sat down with us over the past year. I'm a genius, what can I say. 4 to 1 to cash, 8 to 1 to win a ME seat (you're welcome, jj).

Julius_Goat. Although it looks like we might be waiting until after Hurley passes on the mantle of Island Protector to the next guardian before we get Goat's final Lost post, Goat has always been one of my favorite bloggers, and a guy that I am quite sure full tilt would love to have playing and writing for them in the WSOP ME. And moreover, Goat has had I think among the best overall BBT5 performances of all the people who participated this time around, as basically start to finish the guy amassed big stacks, made fairly deep runs, and of course took care of business the one time he needed to. As someone who always seems to be hanging around the top of the leaderboard in these things, and as the guy who I think it is fair to say played the best tournament poker of anyone in the event where he won his ToC seat, I say Goat definitely has above average chances of cashing tonight in a big way. Let's say 2.5 to 1 to cash and 6 to 1 to grab the granddaddy prize of the poker world.

KeepFloppin. Pokermeister is a solid player and he seems to have played more and more of the blonkaments as he got more involved with our group over the past year or so. However, what he does not have is much tournament experience, much big game experience with tons of money on the line, or much big game tournament experience with tons of money on the line. While in a cash game the Meister might be more formidable, I can't escape the fact that he will probably be fighting an uphill battle in tonight's BBT5 Tournament of Champions. Let's say 5 to 1 to cash, and 10 to 1 to win a ME seat.

lightning36. Lightning is another guy who I feel like I have seen playing a lot against the bloggers over the past couple of years, but who is also not someone I think of as a tournament specialist in any particular way. Lightning has had enough blonkament success not to just write off, but I'm still seeing him as having on the under side of average chances in tonight's ToC. Maybe 4.5 to 1 to cash, and 9 to 1 to win a grand prize.

maigrey. Maigrey is an old-schooler who has won more than her fair share of blogger tournaments in her day. Although she played in 8 BBT5 events, those numbers are semi-inflated because she managed to win her way in to the ToC in the very first one, meaning that all of those other BBT5 appearances for Heather were just not played with the same sense of urgency as most of the rest of the field played with every time out. Maigrey is good, can be tricky and is definitely not someone to be trifled with, but I will keep her odds right at the average of 3:1 to cash and 6:1 to win a seat due to lack of regular experience playing with the field in tonight's big event.

NYrambler. Rambler not only won one event in the BBT5 but got off to massive stacks in at least three or four others. If this were a regular BBT tournament I would definitely have rambler in there above average, but I think rambler's aggression might get the best of him against this field with this kind of money on the line, so I'm going to stick with 3:1 to cash and 6:1 to win the seat tonight for another of New York's finest.

oossuuu754. Oossuuu is basically a shoe-in for making the final table tonight, and with a big stack at that. He has destroyed all comers in the BBT5 as I have mentioned here previously, and I feel sorry for anyone who does not realize that one of the top 3 spots and its 10k prize package has his name written all over it. Osu is a good 1.5 to 1 to cash tonight, and not more than 3 to 1 to win the 10k grand prize.

pushmonkey72. Pushmonkey found his way in to the BBT5 ToC late in the game, much as I recall him doing in a previous BBT series as well, so he is not exactly a stranger to the blogger games or even to playing for the big money at the end. I seem to recall making a similar prediction about Rich in a previous post for a previous BBT-ending tournament, but in the end I haven't seen pushmonkey make deep runs in bnig spots in blonkaments too too often, and thus I think push's chances are just below average to cash tonight, maybe 3.5 to 1 to cash, and 7 to 1 to win the seat. Can't ever say anything too bad about the guy most directly responsible for my first Mookie win during the BBT4 (back when it was still called the Mookie).

pvanharibo. pvan is one of those people in the ToC who everybody has to look out for. Without a doubt I don't know anyone in this group who can bounce back from the early short stack like pvan, so even if she drops early she may be down but definitely not out. I saw pvan playing extremely aggressively during most of the BBT5, including the Buddy in which she won her ToC seat, so I expect more of the same tonight which I think is probably likely to get her off to a nice stack and increase her chances above average of cashing. I would say 2.5 to 1 to cash and probably about 5 to 1 to win a 10k WSOP ME package.

Shabazz Jenkins. Shabazz is a good little player who has had success previously in former BBT series, including winning two seats into this year's BBT5. There's just no way you can count this guy out, as he too has shown a penchant for building big stacks early but also for being able to rebound from early weakness in these tournaments. Shabazz is someone who I also think is slightly better than average to finish at the top in this evening's BBT5 ToC. Let's say 2.5 to 1 to cash and 5.5 to 1 to win the grand prize.

TexansBaby. April, along with Maigrey, is the only other confirmed pure "old school" blogger in the mix tonight in my view, and that along with the blogger tournament success she has had over time makes her a formidable opponent for sure in tonight's ToC. That said, with very little to really go on, I continue to look at a lack of recent experience against most of the other bloggers in tonight's field (I see her only having played 6 events in the BBT5, for instance) as a potential drag on any player's expected performance tonight. Thus, I would expect about a 3.5:1 chance for April to cash, and maybe a 6.5:1 chance to win one of the 10k seats.

TripJax. Trip is another one of those really good guys in the ToC this time around, and I was thrilled when I got up that morning a few weeks back and saw that he had nabbed his seat in the ToC after near-missing and finishing the runner-up in an earlier event in the series. Trip has a good game as well, and unlike many of the older-school bloggers I have covered in this post, Trip actually came out and played in 13 of the 18 BBT5 tournaments overall, cashing in 3 of them and making two final tables. With Trip's success against this field and his experience playing against them, his odds to cash on the night have got to be somewhat better than average. Let's say 2.5:1 for the cash in the top 5 spots, and 5 to 1 to win the 10k.

VinNay. VinNay is another guy who has played a very good BBT5, winning one event and final-tabling two of the 14 tournaments he showed up to play, but amassing a large stack in several others without managing to nab multiple seats as a result. I have my eyes on VinNay as someone whose game is well-suited to a ToC like this, and who is definitely above average overall in his chances. To me VinNay is probably 2.5 to 1 to cash as well, and let's say 4.8 to 1 to win one of the big ones.

xkm1245. xkm is someone who I have known since the days of the WWdN when he used to trash talk like a mahfah every time I sucked out on him (which was often, you know me). Although we seem to be friends again lately (until tonight...heh heh), xkm is another guy who I haven't seen playing against the blogger too much over the past year or so. But, at the same time, the guy showed up for 9 BBT5 tournaments and managed to cash in a whopping five of them, so he is clearly on a good streak. With that kind of momentum I will predict him right at average of 3:1 to cash and 6:1 to win the seat.

So there you have it. I am including myself as well as oossuu, Jim McManus, TripJax, the Goat, All in at 420, VinNay, pvanharibo and Shabazz Jenkins as the top 9 of the 21 runners and the group from which I would expect to see 2 of the 3 Main Event package winners as well as at least 3 of the 5 overall prize winners in the tournament. No matter what happens, I will look to play my best and take the game tonight very seriously, which I understand to be a very favorable structure including super stacks with 5000 starting chips and the same extended blinds as are found in the nightly 50-50 tournament on full tilt. It's still hard to believe that, thanks to the generosity of full tilt and the ass-hard work of Al Can't Hang, we are basically playing in one of those two-table token sitngos on full tilt where the top 5 out of 18 runners win the prize.

See you tonight at 10pm ET for the BBT5 Tournament of Champions on full tilt!

Pencil Him In

Well I had a post I was going to complete today talking about my past World Series performances as part of my psych-up for my Vegas trip, which is now amazingly less than two weeks away. I still cannot believe that; when I first bought my plane tickets, it felt like two years until Vegas time. I know these next 12 days will still feel like two years, but it's a lot less time than it was back then. In the winter, those tickets, this whole trip, another WSOP, it was all just a dream, just an idea. Now as I sit here thinking about it, it's a reality. And it is soooo close....

Anyways, the plan yesterday was to complete sometime during the day my WSOP reminiscence post and get that up here today. But then a strange thing happened. I woke up, literally whispering the name "osu". Really, you can ask my wife. I had a crazy premonition and I mean I literally sprung out of bed, bounded down the stairs, and checked out the old laptop where I had left up the lobby of Wednesday night's Buddy tournament. And fudge if I did not think I was looking at a cached copy or something -- oossuuuuu won again, now his amazing third BBT5 win, and more importantly for those of us skilled enough to already be in the upcoming Tournament of Champions, now bringing that ToC down from its original plan for 24 seats now to 22. With three 10k prize packages and two 2k prize packages in play in that thing, the value of those last few remaining BBT ToC seats just continues to go up. $34,000 in prizes to be distributed to 5 out of 22 players? Check my math but I'm thinking that is 1 and 12/22 = 1 and 6/11 = 1.545 = $1,545 of EV per seat in the ToC. And with I guess four more seats available in this thing, oossuuu might be able to get it down to just 18.

Three ToC seats. Three. And I think he's won them all kind of recently too. Let's face it guys -- you can pencil oossuuu in for one of the two 10k prize packages. He's earned it, and he's going to win it. This guy bullies a table so badly that I'm scared of him. And he always has it. Always. Well, has it, or hits it. One way or another, he is betting or raising, and your chips just keep sliding sliding sliding his way. And he's been absolutely killing it during the BBT, which worked so well for jeciimd back in BBT2 when he crushered the field during the series, and then held on to win the jackpot 18k prize to the Aussie Millions as well. The very best players in the last BBT as I recall -- Tuscaloosa Johnny as always, 1Queensup, Jordan -- I don't think any of them won the seats in the end in the ToC, but here we are again with one guy who is simply head and shoulders above the rest.

oossuuuu, this post is my homage to you. I bow to you, and I am willing to cede you one of the 10k prize packages. Just don't include me in your path of destruction and eliminations along the way so that I may have a fair chance at surviving. I'll donk to you in the WSOP even if that is the price of protection. You are the most skilled of all the bloggers in playing the blonkaments right now, and no one else is even remotely close. You have figured it out; you have figured us out.

Odds on oossuuu nabbing five ToC seats before this is all over, anyone?

Exciting BBT5 Weekend

I am seriously thrilled at the outcome to this past weekend's BBT5 Invitational tournament, with Julius Goat and Jim McManus both winnings seats into the series-ending Tournament of Champions to play for the big bucks. I didn't watch a whole lot of McManus's play -- other than to see him push allin for 30 to 50 big blinds repeatedly seemingly earlier than he needed to, which is more or less par for the course in these blonkaments I suppose -- but I loved Positively Fifth Street and I think it's fair to credit that book with some portion of my own personal explosion in interest in the game of poker, so for my money having JM in the TOC is a positive development.

And then there is Goat. Goat hasn't had a ton of success in winning the private blogger tournaments in the past, but he's always managed to bust out with a win here and there to keep his name on the map, and so far in the BBT5 we have seen why. Although this weekend was Goat's first foray deep into the final table in the BBT5 that I can recall, those of you who have played most of the events will note that every time you look up at the leaderboard over the past few weeks, Julius_Goat always seems to be sitting there with a big stack. In addition to starting to find a groove as a mid-sized sng player in his own right, Goat has shown of late that he is really starting to figure out how to play against the bloggers, something you can really only say about so many people in the group overall. But Goat has figured it out, how to get the early double-up and how to accumulate chips in these familiar events, and such was the case again last night as Goat was sitting in good but not great shape as the tournament rolled down to the final few tables.

But the huge thing about Goat's play on the night from my perspective wasn't the way he started, but the way he finished. I watched him closely as I have with many of the other BBT5 final tables as I've been up late working on my "other" job almost every night of the past few weeks, and Goat played about as good of an overall game on the day as any winner of a ToC seat so far in BBT5. I didn't see the guy make a dumb call and suck out once in the final few tables, and in fact I don't think he made a single bad decision in all the time I watched him. This is in stark contrast to most of the other ToC winners so far -- myself included -- who have recorded many suckouts along the way to nabbing their seats, and in many cases involved the making of several unthinkable and inexplicable plays that were probably not worthy of winning at all. But Goat was totally on the entire night, and it was really awesome to watch. His reads were on fire -- he even called down at least twice on the final two tables on the river with less than one pair and either tied or won them both vs. an aggressive bettor on the other side. His timing was awesome, and when he bet with nothing at the river, they folded. Every time.

The closest thing to a big mistake that Goat made on the night that I saw was about midway through the final table when he called down a highly aggressive player with top pair Jack kicker and lost to TPTK for a little less than half his stack, but the good thing even about that play was that it still left Goat with plenty of chips to fight back, which is exactly what he did. Twice during the final table, Goat got a little short after failing to secure a big pot like this one, but both times, Goat immediately got right back to work instead of focusing on the downside and letting it get to him. And both times he was quickly able to get himself right back to the chip lead, and after having lost it already at the final table once, he did not make the same mistake again.

So for my money Goat is definitely a force to be reckoned with at the upcoming Tournament of Champions. He's been playing overall about as well as anyone in the BBT5, and his win was pretty much the most impressive one I have seen so far, easily over most of the recent winners.

Now who else should we be looking out for as the series moves to its final few weeks?

For starters, it's got to be TwoBlackAces. Not only has he twice bubbled in BBT5 events already, but like Goat he seems to have a big, huge stack almost any time you check him out in one of these things. He's won tons of dough in major online tournaments and has proven to be a consistent accumulator and finisher in all kinds of tournaments. And he has as much experience as anyone playing with most of these fields after his regular involvement in the blonkaments over the past year or two. I know it has been heartbreaking for him not to have nabbed the seat yet after coming so close, but if you have to pick one person to win their way in in the upcoming events, TBA is probably the guy.

I'm also looking at perennial BBT killer Tuscaloosa John, who has crushed everyone through the two BBT series in which he has been an active participant. So far he hasn't made much noise in the BBT5 tournaments, but when I saw him with that big stack as we got down to the final few tables on Sunday night, I had a deja vu and it seemed like something I am expecting to see again in the coming days and week as the BBT5 rolls on. All TJ needs to do is run a little better than he has so far in things like early 60-40s and races, and we may be looking at a ToC seat for a guy who has probably won more overall BBT events than anyone else who has participated.

Lastly, I will mention Astin. Not sure why I have this idea in my head, but Astin has found his way in to I think all but one of the previous BBT Tournament of Champions, and I'm guessing he can pocket Aces his way in there one more time through the remaining what, eight tournaments? Of course it is impossible to predict something like this with any kind of assuredness -- especially with just 8 events left unlike previous BBTs where we would not even be to the midpoint yet of a 55-tournament schedule -- but Astin is a guy who knows how to play the big cards and who also has a lot of experience playing against this crowd. You watch, he will find his way in again before all is said and done with the BBT5.

Next event is tonight, the Monday night Poker From the Rail tournament at 10pmET on full tilt. The password is I think "2010WSOP", and the buyin is a measly $26 for a shot to play for the -- count 'em -- three WSOP Main Event packages and a couple more 2k WSOP packages as well as I recall. Be there or be square

BBT5 Play

I've been saying it for weeks, but the same people who have made their poker living as tight sorts of players are mixing it up early and often on a nightly basis here in the BBT5. It is so noticeable and I am not sure if these guys even realize it, but generally these are the donks who follow around the guy who had the temerity to beat their mediocre hands and bitch at them in the chat for their donkery or their worthlessness or their luck or whatever. In a blogger tournament.

Lost in the shuffle is the fact that you once again got it all in with a one-pair hand after the flop with some 50 big blinds in their stack. In a tournament that obviously matters to you. Why are you chasing someone around in the chat and smack talking them when you willfully got yourself in that situation? Invariably as I mentioned these are generally some of the tighter tournament guys out there, and that just makes this phenomenon all the more amazing to me, because it is not how most of these guys normally play.

Now, some of the people I'm talking about are pretty much known horrible players. But others have had some success in poker, be it cash, sitngos, etc. A few even make some decent money from the game overall. And in a couple of instances I am talking about guys I've seen have tons of success in past blogger tournament series. They're all a little on edge, a little bit out of the comfort zone. And it is clear as day what the reason is.

The BBT. I mentioned this previously, but the BBT -- and, I suspect, in particular the shortness of the series this time around -- has really got people jittery, and that is leading to a lot of people who are used to getting in ahead finding themselves behind or with easily vulnerable hands when the money gets in, especially in the earlygoing this time around. Christ, I saw Blinders bust out first or second in one of these tournaments last week, and he is the undisputed all-time king of folding to the points and then closing his eyes and praying. But this has been happening more and more of late with more and more people like that who are just ending up out early week in and week out, and they don't seem able to perceive what is so apparent to me about the difference in the way they are playing the game.

It's an awesome thing having won a Tournament of Champions seat so early in the BBT5. Though I participated in the ToC in BBTs 3 and 4 (obviously I only really earned the seat in the one BBT where I did not bribe my way in), but in neither case did I manage to find my way in so early in the series. Now I get to play these tournaments as a kind of experiment, or better yet, all just a means to the end of getting myself psyched up and in the right frame of mind for the series-ending ToC. If I happen to nab some more cash along the way or ruin some people's dreams, then all the better :)

Another guy won his way in to the ToC last night -- ooosssuuuuuuuuuu whateverhisnameis. That's another guy who is gonna get his aggro on for sure come ToC time, in what otherwise is not exactly the bastion of aggression so far. Take a look at who is in the ToC here with 11 of the maximum 24 seats now filled:

JJOK
Maigrey
VinNay
xkm1245
dignitasODEE
All In At 420
hoyazo
KeepFloppin
Texas April
NYRambler
oossuuuuuuuuu

Plenty of good players in that list so far, including self-proclaimed Professional Gaming Manager Michael O'Dell, and professional poker player Matt Stout, but otherwise what has been missing a little bit from the winners list so far is that hyper aggressive, take over the table kind of guy. But oossuuuuuuuu definitely rounds that out nicely and adds a little more aggropizzazz to the ToC field so far.

And for those keeping score, that is two confirmed A-Listers in April and Heather, and a few newbies or outsiders like those mentioned above, so it's also a nice smattering of the various generations of bloggers in our group.

Who will be the next person to claim his or her seat in the BBT5 Tournament of Champions? We'll know on Wednesday night when the Buddy is back in da house at 10pm ET. Tonight, sit back and enjoy another fine episode of Lost. Only three left and then the finale!

BBT ToC is Me (Redux)

"Like I said, I am playing some really solid tournament poker lately, across all my poker playing including the BBT5. I just haven't yet had the opportunity to hold up where I need to along the way in the series. A lot of the old standbys from the private blogger tournaments, guys who have made appearances in prior BBT Tournament of Champions, seem to be playing overly aggressively or otherwise somehow not on their game so far four tournaments into the 24-event series, which should help my cause all the more. Hopefully 24 total chances at the ToC is enough for the math to work in my favor one time, because I'm confident I will be right there and still alive when it's my turn for the luck to even out in this thing."

-- Me, yesterday afternoon

Funny how things work sometimes. Here I was about six hours prior to the Poker From the Rail tournament as the open events of the BBT5 resume this week, and I was feeling good about my game although severely wanting as far as my results thus far in the BBT5. I wrote a whole post describing my opinion of my play -- aggressive, solid, hardly any mistakes, folding when necessary -- and I ended with exactly what I was thinking and feeling when I wrote the post on Monday afternoon: just give me a little run-good and hold up where I need it, and I will be there with the stack and the mentality to take advantage.

And that's pretty much just the way it happened.



Unfortunately, the Under is going to win in a landslide today, because I just don't have time to do a full recap post, though I am hoping to find the time one night this week for that. But the last I heard, the line was set on BuddyDankRadio at 70,000 words for my post today. I just don't have any time today, so I'll try to keep it under 40k if at all possible.

The really abridged version of my Poker From the Rail win on Monday night is that I got an early double-up with slow-played pocket Aces, then basically sat around for about two full hours in the 4k-8k range, hovering around the middle of the pack but unable to break out and unwilling to let myself get too low without aggressing my way back to respectability. I played my usual aggressive game from the getgo, and I was able to withstand an early suckout with AQ vs AJ allin preflop for about a third of my stack thanks to the early double with Aces.

But despite the early pocket Aces (I would see them, as well as pocket Kings, one more time apiece in the latter half of the tournament), in the end my biggest pots of the night were generally won with crappy cards. One hand comes to mind when I got allin with 74s and rivered a straight against pocket Jacks, and another with 76s when I pushed allin on a resteal preflop against katiemother and won a key 40-60 shot against her overcards. I recall winning at least one key pot at the final table with one pair with 96o for that matter. I played a very wide range of hands on the night overall, and played them extremely aggressively from the very start to the very finish, and I ran just good enough along the way to make it happen.

And don't get me wrong, this was not one of those tournaments like I've definitely had from time to time where I luckflonked my way to the title. Far from it -- I would say without a doubt that I played the best tournament poker of anybody in the tournament last night. I just happened to run good a little bit along the way. But I got what I would describe as good starting cards -- far from deck-slappage, but as I mentioned I saw AA twice and KK once which is unusual for me, plus a bunch of AK's that I recall out of nearly 400 total hands on the night. And even though I mentioned the couple of key spots where I activated the run-good and survived in what I thought were good spots to make the moves I was making, I also survived two absolutely brutal bad beats when 3-handed and heads-up allin preflop and dominating -- in addition to winning the biggest pot of the entire tournament with my ATs vs Troublecat's TT allin preflop during heads-up play. So overall it was a smattering of some good luck and some bad luck, some good starting cards and plenty of bad, and overall some seriously great poker tournament play from me along the way, among the best I can recall playing in a blonkament.

Although I do hope to get more into this later in the week, I should mention the heads-up battle that saw me come in with more than a 3:1 chip deficit thanks to a major suckout one hand before heads-up. I was up against Troublecat, who many of you may know as the guy who won an event at the LAPC some years ago back when poker blogging was in its nascence, and he and I battled it out hard core to nab the seat. I think he said the heads-up match eventually lasted 72 hands, nearly half of the hands seen on the entire final table, and it was definitely one of those epic heads-up battles that happen once in a long while in the big blonkaments. It was fun but frustrating, as I played a significantly more aggressive game than Ryan did, as I must have won a good 65% of the hands we played heads-up. Much of this was due to the fact that Ryan played very passive with the big chip lead for almost the entire time while I played aggressive like a jackass and just hoped not to get called, or to suckout or win a 40-60 if I did, and once again that's exactly what happened when he reraised me and I called with ATs against Ryan's TT. The flop brought not one but two Aces, and suddenly it was I with the 3:1 chip lead. I played the chip lead far more aggressively than Ryan had, and after one more allin where I lost a 60-40 shot to end it, I finally vanquished Troublecat after about 50 minutes of heads-up play shortly after 2am ET when we both got in with top pair but my kicker was just a couple of pips ahead of his.

My overall impressions of the night: I played awesome tournament poker, especially heads-up where I refused to give up despite playing about 65 of the 72 hands from a significant chip deficit. Especially in a ToC-driven BBT series, I can't say I am any kind of a fan of the structure being such that really from the final two tables it was almost all preflop push-n-pray poker. I don't mind that and frankly most online mtt's end up playing out that way, but when you have to outright win an event in order to make it in to play for the big prizes in the ToC, it just feels wrong that Ryan doesn't get a seat in addition to some others who got sucked out on at the final table if that happens multiple times in a short BBT series like this.

And most of all, I ran well when I needed it, just like I was saying yesterday.

ToC here I come!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Coming Up For Air

Wow.

So let's recap:

1. Yes, I am still alive.

2. No, I did not throw myself off a bridge after bubbling the BBT4 Tournament of Champions last Sunday night.

3. Work has been all-encompassing this week, just about the worst it's ever been for me as far as having my life taken over by my job. Due to various conditions and circumstances, I ended up taking on a boatload of work over the past couple of weeks, the end result of which as they all came together and were suddenly due at the same time, has been me getting into my office before 7:30 in the morning, staying around 12 hours, driving home and taking just enough time to scarf down a quick dinner before jumping right back on the pc and continuing right where I left off at home. Stay up until all hours of the morning trying desperately to finish everything that needs finishing before the next day in the office, and then rinse and repeat the next day. Every day this week, I've spent more than 16 hours struggling to get through everything that needed to get done, and it's only sometime today that I've had any chance at all to come up for air.

I thought while I'm free for what is sure only to be a momentary break, I would jump on here and let everyone know what's what.

Some other thoughts to share before I dive back down into the depths:

First off, my bust from the ToC last weekend. What can I say about it. I don't like the play I made calling off the rest of my stack with AT on the QT4x board down to 5-handed in the tournament. I've gotten a bunch of emails and girly chats about the play, so for the record I am here saying that, with a little hindsight, I don't like the play I made and I think the better play would have been to fold and wait for a better spot, especially given what was at stake.

But that's not to say that I can't explain making that call. I know exactly why I made the play that I made. It really comes down to two things: Hand Ranges, and frustration.

Let's take them in reverse order. As I tried to capture in my live blog of the event, I ran like Zeus and Jupiter rolled into one during the first 90 minutes of the ToC. I was dealt AA and KK once each, getting paid nicely with both as I recall, but the real story had to do with my draws. I must have hit three flushes and two straights, most of them on the turn, during the first hour and a half of the ToC. With the massive 5000 starting stacks that Al was able to secure for us for the ToC, the implied odds of chasing almost any reasonable draw are huge, and on top of that, you bloggers were not making properly-sized bets to price me out of chasing even from a pot odds perspective. I remember calling a couple of 2/3-pot bets on the flop with naked flush draws early in the tournament, knowing that I have more than enough pot odds to see two more cards if my opponent did not bet again on the turn, and knowing the tremendous implied odds if I could get paid off (and I did often). At least once, I chased an oesd on the flop by calling a bet of just half the pot. I mean, if there's a draw on the board and you're out there leading out for just half the pot, you damn well better have a set, or you are making a downright bad play. Even with a set it's probably a bad play since you can lose if that draw fills on the turn or river, but it's defensible with a set. But if two of a suit flop, or two high cards flop, and you're betting half the pot, you are just asking to get called by a draw and then end up paying if you actually had a hand when the flop came down.

So for 90 minutes in the ToC, I called every bet on the flop with every draw just about, and I swear I must have filled every single draw I saw, and I got paid time after time after time. It was without a doubt the only time I ran good in the entire BBT4, and I was lucky enough to have that happening in the Tournament of Champions, with $24k in free prizes at stake for the winners. I floated lucko on a steal attempt with my K2s and managed to flop trip 2s. I raised from early position with sooted connectors, and I flopped the flush. It was sick. I ran like god, and we all know how easy poker can be when you are running godlike. So that was me for an hour and a half at the ToC, and I quickly amassed a solid chip lead while probably eliminating a full ten bloggers along the way.

And then, poof! It was over.

For the last 2 hours and 40 minutes in the Tournament of Champions, I got no hands. Zero. I mean, I didn't see a premium pair, I didn't see a single pocket pair at all in fact, and I did not receive AK, AQ or AJ even one time during that span. Once we got down to about 20 players left or so in the ToC, my cards were finished. I still managed to win a couple of nice pots, but even those required me to make very marginal calls with very marginal hands and in both instances I got lucky to get in ahead. Once was the hand against F-Train somewhere down to the final two tables, when I called his allin reraise preflop for about 10k when I had raised originally from the cutoff for around 2k, and I flipped up the very dominatable A9o. Lucky for me, F-Train was sitting on A8o, and my kicker played and I got another elimination. On another occasion also down to the last two tables, I called another short stack (mostly everyone was a short stack compared to me almost all the way through this thing) with just top pair and a Jack kicker, and ended up being up against top pair with a lower kicker for another nice jump and another knockout from the ToC. But that was all I had going for me with the cards I was getting, and that only got worse and worse as we got down to fewer and fewer players left.

So, by the time I made that fatefull allin call with second pair top kicker at the final table, you have to put yourself into my shoes to understand how I could make an ill-advised call like that. I hadn't seen any hands for about 150 minutes. I was stealing like a banshee, but I had no cards. None. Nada. And it sucked. And those of you who play a lot of poker know how it is -- when you've been looking at a steady stream of 84o and J3o and Q6s for the past two and a half hours, forced to fold to raise after raise after raise from the big stacks at the table, and watched your own stack dwindle to less than half what it was at one point an hour or so earlier, and suddenly you pick up ATs, it looks like the stone nuts. I raised preflop with it, the first time I had had a hand when I raised before the flop in hours, and the table big stack called. The flop came QT4, so I caught second pair with top kicker, and I bet out again. actyper called. When the turn brought a rag (I think -- too lazy to look back at the screenshots at this point), actyper suddenly led out allin for about 3 times what I had left behind.

And this is where my second explanation comes into play -- hand ranges. I'm playing hand ranges here. That's what I always do. I did it when I called F-Train's allin with my A9, reasoning that he might push any Ace, any two face cards and any pocket pair there, and I got lucky. When I called the allin on the flop with my QJ on the Queen-high flop and ended up being up against Q9 or whatever it was, same thing. All I can do is put a player on a range of hands, given the way he or she has played a given hand from the moment the player first decided to voluntarily put money into the pot, and then I make my decisions based on that hand range.

So when actyper pushed so strong there on the turn, the first thing that went through my head was that he must be weak. As it turns out, this was a testament to how well actyper played the hand, because he sent me the absolute wrong message about the real strength of his hand, and I bought it. Partly because he played it real well, and partly, I am sure, because of the frustration of not having seen a good hand for 150 minutes. But in my head when I made the call, I figured I was sure he would push allin there so quickly with just about any Ten, possibly a few draws, and of course anything better than those hands. But any Ten and a draw were in my view squarely in actyper's range of hands to be pushing like he did there, again especially in light of him not having let me lead out again on the turn before check-raising me allin. So, my analysis of the hand ranges involved led me to believe that I was ahead of a significant part of his range, and drawing to probably five outs to another big portion of the hand. And looking at the chips in the middle, the percentage of my stack already involved, and the pot odds of calling off the rest of my chips, my analysis of the hand ranges led me to make the call. Turns out he had flopped a set of 4s, and IGH in 5th place.

Of course, in retrospect I can easily take a different view of actyper's actions in the hand. Here he has a significant chip lead with 5 players left, two of us set to win 10k to play in the WSOP this summer, and actyper called my preflop raise, called my bet on the flop, and then led out allin when a rag fell on the turn. Now, are those really the actions of someone with a weak hand? I mean, is actyper really gonna risk that entire huge stack he has amassed, at a time when he can pretty much just sit and wait this out for a while before having to make a move? I'm not so sure as I look at it now, with a lot more time and perspective to really review everything. But I have detailed notes on actyper, and generally I show him as an aggressive player who would much rather be the one pushing than the one calling, and at the time, all I can say is that I felt his range included enough hands that I was ahead of or was drawing to beat that I felt it was the right decision to make the call. Of course, in retrospect, seeing what he had, of course I wish I had just folded. But I really didn't want to be in last place of 5 players remaining, and I certainly didn't want to give up a bunch of equity in the pot against a guy who I could easily see at the time pushing with a bluff because he would expect me to fold rather than go out on the bubble. My sense knowing how actyper plays a little bit is that most of the people I've spoken with don't get my point about hand ranges, but I think that call was a lot closer than most of you out there is my guess. Still, I think in retrospect it is a call I would not make again, and one I wish I had not made on Sunday night.

So congratulations to actyper and to jj for taking down the 10k seats. I firmly believe that jj owes it to us as a community to come out for the $1500 WSOP event on Saturday June 27, even if he's not planning on using the prize to play in the Main Event itself. And congratulations as well out to ck and karmarules, who I understand may be katiemother (who recently made her blog private, also adding to my suspicions), for each winning the 2k prizes. Here I was listing jj and ck (and karma, frankly) as three of the big longshots in the ToC, and they managed to nab three of the four big prizes in the event. What a thrill to be a part of such a battle as the BBT4 ToC, and the hugest thanks of all again out to Al for putting it all together and for continuing to figure out unique and fun ways to send bloggers to the World Series of Poker. I will continue to say until my grave that, ultimately, that's what it's all about -- sending bloggers to the WSOP.

What else? OK so the Yankees can't beat the Red Sox -- that is 7 for 7 this year so far for the Sox as of this writing -- but how effing great have the Yankees been playing since A-Rod joined the team? I think I saw recently that they are something like 22-8 since A-Rod's return from a steroid-induced hip injury, and lord knows that Yanks' first baseman Mark Teixeira is enjoying the protection. I know I wrote about this a few weeks back, but at this point Tex is leading the majors in home runs with 20, and he is roundly understood to be one of the best free agent signings of this past offseason, when just one month ago you could not have found someone -- anyone -- who would have described the Teixeira signing as anything but an abject failure. Like I wrote about last month, what a difference a little protection makes, huh?

Oh -- and if you didn't see Jayson Werth of Your World Champion Philadelphia Phillies absolutely single-handedly save the game last night in the bottom of the 10th inning last night against the hapless Mets, you should definitely go and check it out. Basically, with a man on first in a tie game in the bottom half of the 10th inning at Citi Field, perennial step-downer David Wright smacked a ball into the alley in right-center field. With a fast runner on first, Jayson Werth knows that if the ball gets by him, the Mets will likely score the winning run on the hit and the game will be over. So Werth just throws caution to the wind and goes completely balls-out, makes a sensational diving catch that even had the homerass Mets announcers screaming in amazement.

Remember back a few weeks ago, when the Mets lost a game in the 9th inning after Carlos Beltran was thrown out at home plate after refusing to slide in a close play? Even after the game, Beltran himself and his coach both excused his play and neither seemed to think it was much of a big deal. Well, Jayson Werth showed on Wednesday night just how much hustle like that matters, and in doing so he illustrated perfectly exactly what makes the Phillies a better overall team than the Mets right now. I've said it before and I'll say it again -- the Mets are a loser team, and they've got no heart whatsoever, something they show time and time again, game in and game out.

So much more to say, but this is all the time I have for now. Hopefully back at ya tomorrow with more of the same.

Live Bloggin the ToC

12:25 pm ET: It's over!! Ck pushes allin for 20k and actyper hesitates before calling with Q8o and a massive stack. An 8 on the turn and ck's WSOP Main Event dreams are history. JJok and actyper will win the 10k prize packages, and karmarules and ck31 take down the 2k scores. Congrats to all involved in the BBT4 and the Tournament of Champions!

12:20 pm ET: karmarules was gone in 4th place before I could even open up the window to see how she busted. It's actyper with a sick chip lead, jj at 46k and ck at 20k, with the top two finishers winning the 10k seats.

12:19 pm ET: I busted on the bubble in 5th place when I took ATs, easily the best hand I received in the past three hours, and ran it into a flopped set on a QT4 flop where I just couldn't put actyper on a Queen. actyper, jjok, ck31 and karmarules will share in the 24k in prizes being put up by full tilt for the BBT4 ToC.

12:14 pm ET: actyper has opened up another big chip lead, up at 79k to jj's 41k and my 39k. All five players remaining are reasonably close other than actyper, with even the last place stack sitting currently at 22k. It's still wide open folks.

12:06 pm ET: ck's AT turns broadway and bests big chipleader actyper's QQ for another double up for ck. as actyper drops out of the chip lead, one hand later he is allin with AK vs the A7 of qrs, and AK holds. qrs is out in 6th, and we are up to the cash bubble in the ToC. I'm still at 39k, but that is now 4th of 5 after all the sucking out going on at this table.

12:06 pm ET: ck doubles up again with 55 against kickyourace's KQs. kick is out, we are down to 6. actyper remains out in front with 72k, and I am still second with 43k, with jj right behind me at 40k.

11:55 pm ET: Fourth break is here. Here are the chip counts:

actyper -- 60,230
hoyazo -- 43,423
jjok -- 41,032
karmarules -- 29,402
qrs1 -- 26,172
kickyourace -- 10,624
ck31 -- 9117

Still anybody's game as I've been saying. Blinds will resume at 800-1600 with a 200 ante after the 5 minute break.

11:52 pm ET: I just took out smboatdrinks after karmarules sucked out against him with Q9o over boat's AK. Down to 7 left, and my stack rises slightly to 40k, still 3rd place of 7 remaining.

11:50 pm ET: actyper's KJs outlasts iaatg's A5o allin preflop and iaatg is the first player out of the BBT4 ToC final table. Meanwhile, actyper's stack has swelled to the large chip lead, sitting at 73k while jj remains in 2nd place with 41k and me with 37k. Break time coming up again shortly.

11:37 pm ET: Massive postflop suckout by ck after smboatdrinks correctly instacalled ck's flop push with 93 on a 972 flop. CK immediately nailed a second 7 on the turn to double through smboatdrinks. Still all 9 of us remaining at the final table, with me at 38k in chips, back in 3rd place behind jj and actyper.

11:32 pm ET: I drop to 34k in my biggest chip loss of the night when my 33 runs into the final table short stack's AA. That puts me in 4th of 9, behind jj and actyper in the mid 40s, and now SmBoatdrinks at 35k as well. Still anyone's game, but if the short stack did not pick up AA again at the final table I would be ok with that too. ;)

11:28 pm ET: Heffmike is out on the final table bubble and we are down to 9 remaining. Unfortunately it was once again jj who recaptured the chip lead from me when his TT bested heffmike's AJ, putting jj now in first with 49k and me in 2nd place as the final table begins with 41k in chips.

11:22 pm ET: I just eliminated F-Train when he reraised me allin and I opted to call with my A9o after seeing F-Train push allin a few times in the past half hour or so. He flipped up A8o and my kicker held to bump me up to 42k and back into the chip lead. Seconds later, smokkee lost his first race of 2009 and we are down to 10 players remaining. I am in the lead with 43k, with actyper in 2nd with 39k and jj at 38k. Still anyone's game, but we are now just one player away from the ToC final table.

11:16 pm ET: Shabazz Jenkins is out in 13th place after KQ flopped a boat against him allin preflop. 12 runners left, all of my top 5 in odds are now eliminated. I've been stealing like a banshee, haven't had a good hand in over an hour at this point, and am happy to be clinging to my third place position with still 27k in chips. jj and actyper still each hold 37k for the top two spots on the current leaderboard.

11:07 pm ET: Update: I understand that stoner has just busted in 3rd place in WSOP Event #13, when his AK could not beat KK and he loses to the tough loss to swallow 3-handed. That said, I'm expecting that the $202,000 stoner just won will help him to swallow the loss, at least just a little bit. Congratulations sprstoner!!!

11:03 pm ET: sprstoner is down to 3 left in the $2500 nlh WSOP event #13. And I have lost my lead in the BBT4 ToC, as jjok calls down jamyhawks allin push with a short stack and with jj's 88. The 88 held and jj moves to 36k vs my 29k, and as I write this, actyper eliminates Snarf as well, jumping his own stack up to 35k and placing me now in third place.

10:55 pm ET: Third break, down to 16 players remaining in the ToC. As mentioned, most of the heavyweights from the BBT4 leaderboard have been eliminated at this point, although for the first time in a couple of hours I have a guy right on my ass at the top of the leaderboard. I am still in first, with 29,935 in chips as we break for 5 minutes, but jj has now climbed to 29,070, while actyper is a close third with 26,597 in chips. It's still anybody's game, but obviously I can't complain about where I'm at with just 12 spots left until the money positions in this badboy.

10:50 pm ET: Whoa! Somehow I missed this, but Jordan is also gone, out in 21st place, so that is yet another of the "Tier I" guys that won't be winning WSOP packages in the BBT4 ToC. The only guy left that I had in that first group is Shabazz Jenkins, who currently sits in 13th place out of 16 remaining.

10:48 pm ET: I elim LJ when I make the mandatory call of her short-stack raise preflop when I hold 66 utg. I hold against A5s and move to 32k, with 2nd place still jj at around 22k in chips.

10:41 pm ET: And another early favorite goes down. Chad is out when he pushed allin from the small blind with K2s, and was instacalled by Vinnay who woke up in the big blind with QQ. Chad is out in 23rd place, and Tony Eusebio goes just a minute later leaving 21 blonkeys remaining. in the ToC. My 28k is now ahead of jj in 2nd place with around 22k in chips.

10:33 pm ET: And another early favorite bites the dust. 1ueensup1 is out of the Tournament of Champions in 25th place of 44 who started 2 and a half hours ago. I didn't see how it happened, but it doesn't really matter I guess. So far TJ and Queensup are both out in the top half of the field, leaving this a wide open race for the 4 wsop prize packages and the two 10k seats. Meanwhile I just raised with, won and showed my fourth hammer of the night. Eat it.

10:26 pm ET: Over 30k and still comfortably in first place after knocking out mclarich who pushed the turn with just an oesd and two unders on a K89 flop (he held 67). I could not find a reason to fold 97o to his stack that is barely a dent in mine, and I dodged 8 outs once for the big jump. Second place is now smboatdrinks at around 15k, so I am still sitting pretty way ahead of the pack with 25 runners left.

10:14 pm ET: Up over 25k as my Q9 outflops ck's TT and I withstand one bet from her before we both wisely check down the river. With 30 runners remaining, I'm just over 25k with second place (still ck) just a shade over 14k. Meanwhile I am out of the 40k per my earlier post. Right now it's just the ToC open on my pc, though that is likely to change as this thing wears on.

9:55pm ET: Second break, and I sit with 21,730 chips, still good for first place with 32 bloggers remaining in the BBT4 Tournament of Champions, about 4k ahead of second place which is ck31 at the moment. My stats through 159 hands in the ToC are pretty effing amazing if I don't say so myself -- I have won an astounding 24 hands preflop (15% of the total hands dealt at my table!), plus another 2 on the flop, 2 on the river, and an equally incredible 10 out of 12 showdowns, which is a testament to my having had AA and KK already tonight in addition to making two straights and a flush all in the first two hours of this thing. That means a total of -- get this -- 23% of the total hands dealt at my table have been won by me, and this at an event that's had 7 or more players at each table throughout and which has been mostly 9-handed. I'm suuuuure that will continue as the ToC rolls on!

9:46pm ET: I just elim'd pushmonkey when he pushed allin on a reraise with what turned out to be AJo against my TT. I got some chips from Snarf in the process as well, but could not get him to commit fully when I flopped a set on a scary JT9 board. The 8 on the turn prevented me from betting, but luckily I held against pm's flopped TPTK and I shot up over 22k in the process.

9:42pm ET: I just took another sickass beat to get essentially eliminated from a poker tournament, this time in the 40k where I got allin with QQ against 77 and A8s, and watched 77 make its set on the turn to send me essentially to the rail. It's hard to believe I still play this game sometimes. Although, I did just double back up and am now only about a third of the average stack with about 200 runners left until the money. Meanwhile, in the ToC I am just over 18k and still in 1st place wth 33 runners remaining.

9:24pm ET: Just elim'd dueyv when he bet half the pot on the flop and I called with an oesd. My oesd filled on the turn, he checked to me and I opted to bet out 2/3 of the pot, which duey quickly raised allin for another 2k more. Holding the nuts, I called of course, expecting to need to fade some outs to a boat, but instead duey showed ATo unimproved and was drawing dead. That bounced me up to 14k and second place, and then the very next hand saw Aposec push allin on a reraise to my pf raise from middle position, which I felt I had to call with AKo. He showed AJo, and somehow another favorite held up, vaulting me over 16k in chips and into first place on the leaderboard with 35 left out of 44 runners who started about 90 minutes ago.

9:20pm ET: Over 10k and into 4th place overall after F-Train instacalled me on the river with his 77, third pair on the board, and lost to my pocket Aces. At the moment the Asshat Frat Crew is representing in a really big way, with Chad in 1st, Don in 3rd and myself in 4th. Goooooo crew!!!!

9:04pm ET: Booom Tuscaloosa Johnny becomes the first of the Tier 1 favorites to be eliminated from the BBT4 Tournament of Champions. TJ flopped bottom set, but lost to flopped broadway. That's brutal. But what a run for TJ, over not just this BBT series but the last two of them overall.

8:56pm ET: First break. I have 8455 in chips, good for fourth place after 55 minutes of play. Meanwhile, at the second break of the 40k, I am 274 out of 480 with just under 5k in chips. Chad is in the final 20 of the Sunday Brawl on full tilt, already in place to win well into the four digits, and sprstoner is in 3rd place with 5 players remaining in WSOP event #13!

8:52pm ET: Up to 8600 in chips after I turned 12 outs, called a 2/3 pot bet against Aposec based purely on implied odds, and then rivered the nut flush. I raised aposec's river bet and he correctly folded with the runner-runner diamond flush showing on the board. I am currently in 2nd place on the leaderboard, but right above me in first with more than twice the starting stack is Chad, who I already had at 6 to 1 as one of the favorite to win this thing. Love that he has that sized stack early.

8:40pm ET: I just nabbed the rest of lucko's 540 remaining chips when he pushed allin ahead of me when I held QQ. He flipped T9s and somehow the biatches held, bumping me over 6000 chips for the first time and into 6th place and simultaeously eliminating one of the toughest players from the ToC field.

8:25pm ET: I got down to 4100 before caling a blind steal from lucko on the button with my K2s. I flopped two more 2s and just smooth called two bets from lucko on the flop and turn, including when I made quad ducks with the case 2 on the turn. On the river I bet out big for the full pot, and lucko called for most of his stack with 73o for the rivered boat. Up to 5900 just like that, good for 10th place out of 43 left as Julkeus has become the first player eliminated from the ToC.

8:07pm ET: First fucking of the night came early, and I managed to minimize the damage in any event. I called a 2/3 pot bet on the flop with a hidden flush draw, made my flush on the turn, but failed to get it allin thank god. The river made a 6-outer boat for aposec and I could have easily been allin there with a massive lead for the early double-up as my opponent held A and was n0t about to fold. Down to 4700 from 5000 starting stack in the very earlygoing.

8:02pm ET: Stole first hand dealt to me on the night with a 3x open-raise from middle position. That's always a good feeling.

8:01pm ET: Shuffle up and deal! I got Al, Snarf, Aposec, duey, F-Train and shipfaced at my starting table. GL to everyone who is playing!

7:48pm ET: Well so much for my nice stack in the 40k. QQ < KK on a Ten-high flop vs. a short stack took care of that one. Ahhh typical, dirty, poker. T minus 10 minutes on the BBT4 ToC!

7:32pm ET: Sprstoner (Shawn Glines) is in the final 8 at WSOP event #14!

7:26pm ET: Just doubled up early in the full tilt 40k, which started at 7pm ET. Called preflop raise with T9s and flopped flush, eventually getting the lone Ace of the flush suit allin on the turn and fading the 8 outs on the river. Gotta love full tilt mtt players.

7:05pm ET: T minus 55 minutes until the BBT4 ToC. Meanwhile, sprstoner is down to the final 10 of WSOP event #14.

5:35pm ET: 44 runners and counting have signed up for tonight's BBT4 Tournament of Champions. Get out here and let's see if we can break 50!!

Just kidding. This is a freeroll and you are only registered if you "earned" your way in by "winning" a BBT4 tournament over the past three months. But you can still come out and watch the junk-kickery!

4:20pm ET: Well, the day is finally here. T minus 3 hours and 40 minutes as I write this until the biggest day of the year in poker blogdom, as far as I'm concerned. Two lucky bloggers will walk way after tonight's BBT4 Tournament of Champions with $10,000 prize packages to the 2009 World Series of Poker Main Event. Two more of the 44 runners in tonight's freeroll will snag $2,000 WSOP prize packages for their efforts, with just worse than 1 in 20 odds for everyone to win some kind of cash for the WSOP this summer.

Over the past few days I have done a little writeup on each of the 43 other runners who will be joining me tonight at 9pm ET on full tilt. You can go and read those in my previous three posts before this one. Here is a quick recap of my odds of each player to win, in alpha order as best as I could do in my current state:

125Will -- 20 to 1
1Queensup1 -- 5 to 1
actyper -- 23 to 1
AlCantHang -- 35 to 1
Aposec72 -- 28 to 1
Asphnxma -- 30 to 1
Bone Daddy -- 19 to 1
Buddydank -- 14 to 1
chiefroger -- 35 to 1
ck31 -- 32 to 1
columbo -- 16 to 1
cracknaces -- 7 to 1
Dr. Pauly -- 15 to 1
dueyv9 -- 28 t 1
ElSnarfGrande -- 10 to 1
heffmike -- 9 to 1
highonpoker -- 6 to 1
hoyazo -- 15 to 1
iaatg6296 -- 14 to 1
inguri -- 35 to 1
jamyhawk -- 22 to 1
Jimdniacc -- 17 to 1
jjok -- 27 to 1
Joanne1111 -- 15 to 1
Julkeus -- 20 to 1
karmarules -- 28 to 1
kickyourace -- 24 to 1
lucko21 -- 11 to 1
mclarich -- 24 to 1
Miami Don -- 11 to 1
nightranger -- 22 to 1
pushmonkey72 -- 35 to 1
pvanharibo -- 15 to 1
qrs1 -- 20 to 1
rake feeder -- 29 to 1
rubbishat -- 40 to 1
Shabazz Jenkins -- 9 to 1
ShipFaced -- 18 to 1
SmBoatDrinks -- 18 to 1
smokkee -- 12 to 1
tgrazz -- 33 to 1
Tony Eusebio 20 to 1
Tuscaloosa John -- 7 to 1
Vinnay -- 25 to 1

I'm looking forward to starting up the action in just over 3 and a half hours. In the meantime, go think about sprstoner who is right around average with just 20 runners left in WSOP Event #13, the $2500 nlh tournament that started with 1088 runners and pays out $506,000 and change to the winner.

BBT4 ToC Odds -- The Rest of the Field

Wow have I been taking some sickass suckouts lately. More than usual. And they're the kind of suckouts where I am a few outs away from having a really big stack, and serious chip utility, only to find myself suddenly looking at the tournament lobby screen, having to re-check the hand history to even try to figure out whatthefuck just happened. As much as I hate running bad, I hate even more going through a string of suckouts heading into a tournament that I am more looking forward to than maybe any individual poker event this year (so far, not counting my upcoming WSOP foray later this month). The BBT4 Tournament of Champions is this Sunday night, June 7, at 8pm ET on full tilt, and I will be opening up the blog all day on Sunday, updating live throughout the day heading up to the ToC, and hopefuly sticking around well into the evening updating my own progress as the ToC wears into its later hours. And speaking of the BBT4 Tournament of Champions, without further adieu let me get to my predictions for the rest of the field that I have not already covered in my prior couple of posts. In alpha order, starting with those I have not yet covered:

Dr. Pauly -- Pauly is a solid poker player, and is always a danger to make a deep run using his ability to extract chips from his opponents, where Pauly is better than many in this field. That said, Pauly is far too busy with his writing to play much with this group anymore, and as a result my suspicion is that Pauly's poker skill will be outweighed somewhat by his inexperience against this particular field of blonkeys. With an average odds of 21 to 1 against, Pauly's still going to fare better than average, coming in I think right around 15 to 1.

Miami Don -- Don is an interesting pick for the ToC. He only played in 26 of the 56 BBT4 tournaments, but in those 26 appearances Don amassed more than 28 points per event on his way to 5 final tables and over $1220 in cash winnings. Don's solid BBT performance combined with an equally solid run in the most recent Bodonkey to demonstrate his ability to play against the bloggers. Don is another guy whose chances to win one of the two 10k WSOP prize packages is solidly above average, probably coming in at around 11 to 1.

nightranger -- StB plays under the handle "nightranger" on full tilt and is another guy who has demonstrated skill in maximizing value from his strong hands. Although StB has won several blonkaments in his day, those days were mostly some time ago, and as a rule we don't see StB in our regular games with anywhere near the frequency that was once the case. In the end I know that StB can play the game, but I think his odds of winning one of the top two prizes are right around average given his lack of recent experience against most of the rest of the ToC field. 22 to 1.

pushmonkey72 -- I really owe pushmonkey one, because it was he who almost singlehandedly put my one and only lifetime Mookie championship on a silver platter for the taking earlier in the BBT4. But despite that one act of undying kindness for which I will feel eternal gratitude, I think pushmonkey is a very long shot to finish in the top 2 in Sunday's Tournament of Champions. I know push has won a few blonkaments over time, but I've just seen too many poor decisions to think him likely to last against this particular field of BBT4 tournament winners. 35 to 1.

pvanharibo -- Obviously pvan has the skill to win the ToC. LJ has the aggression that all great poker tournament players live and breathe, and she's shown that she can do it on a large stage several times over, both in the blogger tournaments and elsewhere. On top of that, she tends to hit when she needs to and the bloggers fold to her like it's going out of style. The only thing the rest of the field has going for it is that pvan had a pretty horrible BBT4 overall, certainly by her standards. I will temper the odds a bit as a result of her cold streak in BBT4 tournaments, but we're still looking at 15 to 1 for pvan to take this thing down.

qrs1 -- I don't know who this guy is, and I only saw him start showing up in the BBT4 somewhere near the end of the series. Having only played 12 tournaments total in the challenge, qrs still somehow managed to finish in 36th place on the series leaderboard overall. Although the guy popped up with 6 final tables in those 12 tournaments, I have to scale the odds down somewhat based on some of the plays I saw made along the way during the BBT4. Not knowing anything else about who this guy is, I will lay his odds of winning at around 20 to 1.

rake feeder -- Rake won I think the very first tournament of the BBT this time around, besting me in heads-up play at the series-opening Big Game. Rake also showed up for 28 events, meaning that he participated in fully half of the events of the entire challenge, so he's mixed it up with the group playing in Sunday's ToC sufficiently often to know what's what. The thing about Rake that makes me a bit dubious about his chances of running deep is that in those 28 BBT4 tournaments, it was just three final tables and 3 ITM finishes. That tells me that Rake's game is a bit hit or miss, and that regardless of his early performance, he simply does not have the late game skills that many of his competitors in this field are sure to bring to the table this weekend. It will take some very fortunate situations for Rake to last down to the final two. 29 to 1.

rubbishat -- No idea who this is. But they have the word "rubbish" in their name, and it looks like in his one win out of 6 tries was for a lofty $67. Thus, we're looking at another guy who plays exclusively in the $5 Brit gheyness, and thus someone who plays low and who doesn't have much experience against the rest of this field on top. 40 to 1.

Shabazz Jenkins -- I've said this several times, but Shabazz is a good poker player, one I have seen and played with deep in tournaments on multiple occasions over the past year or so. Shabazz crushed in the BBT4, finishing 51 events in 3rd place overall on the leaderboard, with over $1600 cash won and as one of the small handful of players who ended the series with more than 30 BBT points per event over more than 30 tournaments. Despite playing so well in the blogger events, I think Shabazz is a bit of a sleeper in the Toc just because he hasn't been around for too too long and since he only won outright one of the series' 56 tournaments. Shabazz is clearly one of the favorites in this field in my book. 9 to 1.

ShipFaced -- I know nothing about who ShipFaced is. What I do know is that the guy played just 8 BBT4 tournaments, and somehow he managed to win two of those eight tournaments. I don't know what to do with that information since I haven't a clue who this guy is, but I suppose he's gotta be in the top half of the field after that impressive performance over just a handful of events. Plus, on BDR last week someone said he won a Mookie along the way, so you know he's got mad skillz. I'll stick ShipFaced just a bit above average, at 18 to 1 to win one of the 10k packages.

SmBoatDrinks -- Here is a guy who's been playing with the bloggers for a couple of years at least, and I've seen the name several times during that period, so I know he has the requisite experience against this field to at least prevent experience from being a detriment to his chances in the BBT4 ToC. What's more, Boat also finished the BBT in 19th place on the overall leaderboard, making 8 final tables in 43 appearances along the way. The biggest knock against Boat's BBT performance is that he has only been able to turn those 8 final tables into $400 cash, which indicates not many late runs and more than his fair share of early final table bustouts. The good overall performance gets Boat into the picture in my view, but it's not enough to punch solidly into the top half of the field. 18 to 1.

smokkee -- Smokkee is definitely one of the two or three tightest players in this year's BBT4 ToC field. Normally this is not a reliable path to success in a tournament where you need to finish in the top 2 out of a strong, aggressive field, but I don't know that I can ever recall seeing someone on a heater of good luck like smokkee has been on over the past month or two. Anybody who can just foldfoldfold to the final table and then reliably expect KK>QQ>JJ and AK>KQ on a King-high flop cannot possibly ever be far out of this tournament, and when you throw in that the guy has been winning races late in tournaments over the past few weeks at probably an 85% clip, and smokkee has to be well into the top part of the field for the upcoming ToC. Since his success remains based on a mathematically flawed strategy that only works due to some of the sickest luck I've ever seen, I can't put smokkee in the top tier of players, but he is a solid second-tier with very good chances of running deep given his recent performances. 12 to 1.

tgrazz -- I don't know who this player is either, other than to say that the guy suckout-eliminated me from not one but two tournaments during the BBT4. And that while playing only 18 of the 56 BBT4 tournaments overall. In those 18 events, however, tgrazz made just 3 final tables and scored under 18 BBT points per game overall, which indicates not a lot of late strength in his tournament game. Combine that with very little experience playing against this group overall, and we're looking at another below average chance to win the big shit on Sunday. 33 to 1.

Tony Eusebio -- I don't know much about Tony to be honest, but he seemed to be friendly with a few people here and there who played in the BBT this time around. Tony finished the BBT4 in 24th place, with 6 final tables in 31 events played. His points per game was respectable, and I don't recall him making any embarrassing plays, outside of the Skillz game where I'm stil cleaning up the barf from some of the calls I saw. As the ToC is a no-limit event and with Tony having performed well overall in the BBT, I think his lack of familiarity with some of the players will keep his odds down close to average overall. 20 to 1.

Tuscaloosa John -- What can I say that hasn't already been said about Tuscaloosa John and his incredible BBT prowess? Not only did TJ run roughshod over the BBT4 field, including 14 final tables and over $2200 in cashes over 50 tournaments, but he's done it before as well -- TJ won not one but two of the montly 2k prizes from last summer's BBT3 as it is. All this is a long way of saying, TJ has repeatedly beat down on the bloggers over a sustained period of time, and he appears to have this format really down pat as far as having figured out how to survive to make a run at the end of these things. Of course, winning almost every race I saw him in over the past month doesn't hurt either. There's no way TJ is less than 7 to 1 to win one of the big prizes in Sunday's Tournament of Champions.

Vinnay -- Vinnay won his way into the BBT4 Tournament of Champions just a couple of days after I had called him out for never winning the Mookie, ending the challenge in 46th place on the overall leaderboard. Despite showing up for 20 BBT4 events, in general I don't think Vinnay has quite the experience against this type of field that most of the other participants in the ToC will have, and on top of that I also note that Vinnay made just three final tables in those 20 tournaments played. Overall this stacks up to a slightly worse than average shot at the big prizes on Sunday, probably around 25 to 1 against.

And that rounds out everybody playing in the BBT4 Tournament of Champions on Sunday night at 8pm ET. Everybody except for me, that is. As I mentioned on BDR the other night, I feel like I surely have the skill to make the kind of deep run needed to nab one of the 10k WSOP prize packages in this thing. I had a solid BBT overall, finishing in 15th place on the leaderboard while making 7 final tables and more than $1200 over 39 events played. But, if I am to make the deep run I know I am capable of, I will need to get some good situations along the way, either in the form of decent cards, hitting some flops, or at the least having some of my 57% and 52% hands hold up when I need them. And unfortunately for me, the story of my BBT4 has been more or less the total opposite of that, as I always seem to be the guy losing the key race, missing the 14 outs twice in a key spot, and just generally not being afforded the opportunity to wait out the good spots nearly as much as many of the others who really killed this time around in the BBT. And with the way I have been running lately, it seems almost a certainty that I will get suckout- or luckout-eliminated somewhere along the way in the upcoming ToC. My poker skill matches up well againsts the totality of this field, but I am simply nowhere near the top of the list as far as actual chances of winning the big shit. 15 to 1.

OK that's all for now. I will update the Hoy live blog right here on Sunday as often as I can, at least until I get sucked out on by some douchebag who would jizz all over himself if he even thought about winning 10k in a poker tournament. That should be good for an hour or so at least after the 8pm start time of the ToC, but look for me here ahead of that for some good old-fashioned live blogging of my poker day.

All Hail the BBT, and TOC Odds Part Deux and Trois

Sorry 'bout no Tuesday post, but as we all know, sometimes duty calls. Work kicked me in the balls, ferociously and repeatedly, on Tuesday, to the point that I didn't really get to think about this space other than to wonder if I would ever get out of the office long enough to pursue any of my other non-work interests on the day. That means that I also missed a day of giving my thoughts on the odds of each player in the BBT4 Tournament of Champions nabbing one of the two $10k WSOP main event prize packages available in this Sunday, so today I'll just have to give you a double dip on that front.

But first, I was a bit saddened but I can't say all that surprised to read on Al's blog the other day that the BBT4 will be the final BBT-style series put together for us lowly blonkheads by the good people at full tilt. It's been an amazing run, really, if you think about it. And I say that with a certain sense of pride, as the BBT at its core is something I was deeply involved in from its very inception.

The WPBT had just finished its first "season" in 2006 of keeping a running leaderboard of bloggers' performances in a series of weekly blogger tournaments. The WPBT figured out early that it was more fun from a leaderboard perspective if you rotate the games, so we played a mix of limit, no-limit, pot-limit, holdem, omaha, razz, the "Gemini" as I recall which was still I think the first and only multi-table blogger tournament ever run, and various other games and structures to keep things fresh. There were no real prizes for performance in the WPBT, just pride, which as I look back on it made it cool in its own way I suppose. Although I tailed off a little bit there at the end, I ended in the top 10 on the 2006 WPBT leaderboard and was very proud to have won a few of the tournaments outright in various flavors of poker, and I had enjoyed it and really for the first time realized that, if done correctly, it could be truly fun to focus on actual performance every week in one of the blonkaments I was going to be playing anyways. The WPBT also brought out several new characters into our world of blogging, guys like Chad and Lucko and others who really wowed us with their prowess in a wide variety of games and poker skills over the better part of a year of playing together once a week.

Around that time I got to thinking. I had begun writing for Cardsquad with the lovely Joanne, and I was starting to formulate a plan to use that platform to somehow combine a leaderboard score for all of the blonkaments -- the WPBT on Sundays, the MATH, the WWdN and the Mookie at the time as I recall -- and post a running tally of everyone's leaderboard points every week to a wide poker audience on Cardsquad, hopefully using that to increase the popularity of our games among new players as well as helping to keep things fun like the WPBT had been so good at doing for me over the previous year. I worked up a couple of ideas but had never really taken them to fruition yet when I headed out to Caesar's in I think March of 2007 to play in the WSOP Circuit event down in Atlantic City.

And that's where I met Al for the first time in the flesh. After I busted about 7 hours in to the Circuit Event, I headed over for my first (and still only) trip to the Borgata to meet up with The Al Can't Hang at a bar in the Borg, and though we only hung out for maybe an hour, two at the most, it turns out that Al had been having similar thoughts to my own as far as putting together some kind of mega-, all-encompassing blogger tournament series that could be really fun and interesting for everyone. We talked almost the entire time over a few shots and beers about it, and then we went about our merry ways, me back home to New York and Al back to the poker room where some other bloggers were playing in tournaments. I, of course, continued to think much but actually do very little about organizing an actual structure to this mega-leaderboard idea, but we all know how Al is about getting shit done. Lo and behold, maybe a couple of weeks go by, and suddenly Al is hitting me up on the girly, all excited-like, and he's telling me that full tilt has apparently agreed to give us back every dollar of rake we pay for the tournaments in a 3-month-long Battle of the Blogger Tournaments series in the form of an end-of-series freeroll with cash prizes.

I was floored. That was going to be what, like $3000 in free prizes, just for all of us playing the very same blonkaments we were going to be playing anyways? Whoa. And over time, it grew. In that first BBT back in the summer of 2007, dominated by resident draw-chaser Bayne, we got back a few thousand in cash prizes at the end in a giant freeroll. Just six months later, Al managed to convince full tilt that they needed to give away a seat to the upcoming Aussie Millions tournament they were sponsoring -- a fucking $12k AUD buyin tournament seat!! -- which my friend jeciimd managed to win by dominating the points system of the BBT2 almost wire to wire over two months, including winning the first series-ending Tournament of Champions for the grand prize and the trip to Oz, and the giving away of more than 20k worth of free shit to us humble bloggers. Then six months later it was time for the BBT3, and for full tilt to give away the first set of World Series of Poker seats. And boy did Al and full tilt knock this one out of the park -- for the BBT3's Tournament of Champions, we would be looking at not one but two WSOP Main Event seats -- 10k apiece! -- plus, two more 2k WSOP prize packages to be awarded in the series-ending Tournament of Champions, and three more 2k prize packages to be awarded to the winner of each individual month of the three-month challenge. In making essentially the same deal for us here with the BBT4, full tilt will have given away nearly a hundred grand of purely free shit to the bloggers, all as part of the Battle of the Blogger Tournaments, an idea first hatched by a couple of blonkeys over some shots at a bar near the poker room in the Borgata.

Sure, I have had my issues with the BBT from time to time. Most of those related (and still relate) to people being unable to keep themselves from getting angry and acting childish as a result of all that suddenly is at stake in our little private weekly games, be it in the chat box, in their blogs, and in comments on other people's blogs. Where our regular private tournaments had started off as fun opportunities to get together with blogger friends and light-heartedly sling some internet chips, often times they were turned into a source of tremendous stress, and eventually real frustration and jealousy for many people, and that of course was not a good development. A lot of bad shit has been said and thought about people and their play as a result of the advent of so much money riding on our private games. Some of this was directed at me -- mostly by people with micropenis of course -- but really it's the stuff I've seen happen as opposed to what has involved me that was the worst in my view. And, given the structure of the tournament series as it has evolved over the past couple of years, it has become a serious grind for just about anyone who wants to make a serious effort in the challenges, one that often exacerbates the stress and frustration that the BBT had already created by its very existence.

But make no mistake -- the BBT has been an effing incredible thing overall, and I don't see how anybody can reasonably say otherwise. Sure, things have changed with our private tournaments as a result of the BBT, but change is not necessarily a bad thing. And to think that, just for playing together like we used to every Tuesday and Thursday night on pokerstars with Wil Wheaton for free, now we would receive nearly a hundred large of free prizes from a major online poker site, for that Al deserves all the freaking credit in the world. I won't even put it into words how special it is that Al helped send two bloggers to the Main Event last year via the BBT3 Tournament of Champions, in addition to giving away another ten 2k WSOP prize packages and an additional 10k+ in cash prizes over the past couple of years. But for someone who was involved fairly early on in this community -- not A-lister early, mind you, but fairly early compared to most of you out there reading this -- to think that two bloggers got to play in the WSOP Main Event, and another 10 bloggers won 2k prize packages, that is fucking awesome. There's just no other way to describe it. So the BBT is dead, but not forgotten. Tonight I resolve to crack out my aging bottle of Johnny Walker Blue Label and hoist one up to Al, for helping bring the WSOP to so many poker bloggers who would otherwise never have even sniffed Las Vegas during the summertime otherwise, and for adding an excitement to our lives over much of these past couple of years that we all should know would never have been present without him.

Al Cant Hang, thank you, for everything. Sincerely.

OK with that out of the way, time to turn back to my BBT4 ToC odds. Starting with none other than the Man of the Hour himself.

AlCantHang -- OK after saying all those nice things about Al above, now I can say what I really think about his chances of winning one of the two WSOP Main Event 10k prize packages in the upcoming BBT4 ToC: not great. Although Al is surely high on everyone's list of who we would like to see take this baby down, Al has not had a ton of success in the blonkaments overall, and he only managed to make the points in 1 out of 7 BBT events he played this time around. Average odds are 21 to 1, so I will put Al, one of the few poker players who would not even claim to be particularly good at no limit holdem, at 35 to 1 against.

chiefroger -- Sorry, I simply don't know anything about this person. If you told me there was one person registered for the ToC who did not actually play in any of the events, I would have picked this name. Chiefroger played exactly one BBT4 event, won his seat, and that was it for him. Assuming this is not yet another blogger with multiple accounts on full tilt, I will lay this person's odds at 35 to 1 as well, given a total lack of experience playing against this group nor any demonstrated success in nlh tournaments as a rule.

ck31 -- ck knows how to play poker, and in fact makes a nice little side income from doing just that at the live tables ever since making the move from New York to Las Vegas last year. ck has written a number of solid strategy posts on Skillz game poker variations over the past year or so on her blog and has has often had intelligent contributions to analysis of those games. That said, like Al before her, ck is not a no-limit specialist, a fact with which she would not argue. What's more, ck has had very little success in winning the private blogger tournaments over time, despite managing to nab her seat to the BBT4 ToC. It's hard to give strong odds on someone winning out -- especially against this field of mostly nlh tournament winners -- to someone who is not a nlh fan and who doesn't win many blonkaments to begin with. I'm saying 32 to 1 here as well for ck.

dueyv9 -- This is another person that I just don't have any real information on. I recognize the name from some of our private blogger tournaments, but duey is not someone I really know anything about. That said, duey did play 28 of the BBT4 events, and ended in a respectable 45th place on the final BBT4 leaderboard, so that's not entirely indicative of someone without nlh skill. Purely based on those two facts that I know about this person, I will lay the odds of a 10k prize win for dueyv at 28 to 1 against.

ElSnarfGrande -- Here is someone that I personally know very little about, although I understand that Snarf is associated with the corporation poker blog in some way (I think). Although a relative newcomer compared to some of the old-school WWdN'ers among us, Snarf has been playing with this crew for some time and has surely amassed a nice pile of notes and thoughts on the other players' games at this point, which is always something I look to when trying to create odds like this. But what's even more impressive is that Snarf ripped it up in the BBT4, amassing over 32 BBT points per game, a thousand dollars of cashes and 12 final tables over 41 events, good for 6th place overall on the final leaderboard of the final BBT tournament series. I think this bodes well for Snarf's chances in this weekend's ToC, so I will lay Snarf's odds of winning the 10k at 10 to 1.

heffmike -- Speaking of people who performed well during the BBT4, heffmike definitely fits the bill. First off, heff came out for 53 of the 56 events, giving him plenty of experience in this BBT to go along with the time he spent playing with this crew prior to this summer. Moreover, heff managed to outright win three of those tournaments in the BBT4, in addition to making 14 final tables and winning nearly $1500 on his way to a 4th place finish overall in the series. And, as I can personally attest to, heff has also caught a lot of breaks over the past couple of months, which is crucial for anyone who thinks they can outlast this field and make it down to the final two participants in the BBT4 Tournament of Champions. With how he has been running and the skill he has shown all throughout the BBT this time around, it's an inescapable conclusion that heff is one of the favorites to win one of the two 10k price packages this weekend. Let's say 9 to 1.

highonpoker -- Now if you're looking for someone who ran really well during the BBT4, look no further than Jordan. Although Jordan finished the BBT4 in 5th place on the overall leaderboard, that stat is misleading because he only played in 31 of the 56 total events, way less than anybody in his league on the leaderboard. This leaves Jordan's 45+ BBT points per event looking downright stratospheric compared to anyone else with 30 or more events -- 34 PPE is the next highest that I am seeing of anyone else who qualifies. And Jordan won four BBT4 tournaments, also the most of anybody in the entire blogiverse over the past three months. So, although Jordan did not play nearly as many of the events as the other high scores in the challenge, and thus doesn't have nearly the sample size of tournaments that they have, he without a doubt made more out of his BBT appearances than anybody, much much more. And, again as I can attest to from personal observation, Jordan ran as well as anybody I've ever seen run in a BBT series. Jordan in the BBT4 made Bayne in the original BBT look like me trying to get two overcards to hold up. I've seen Jordan allin and behind at least 6 or 7 times just over the four tournaments I saw him win, and I've watched him pull a rabbit out of a hat on the turn or river another several times on top where his tournament life was not officially on the line. Now, many people might say that his incredible luck to get to this point decreases Jordan's chances of cashing big in the ToC, but I do not agree. Jordan is on an incredible heater in the blonkaments -- a streak which continued right into the last day of the BBT when he pulled several lucky cards on his way to a third place in the final Brit Bloggerment -- and I see no reason to believe that will suddenly stop now. I don't want Jordan at my table, I don't want him with a big stack of chips, and frankly I just have to hope that somebody can take the wind out of his sails early, or "God help us all", to use a very line from Lost. I'm thinking 6 to 1 for Jordan to win the big one.

iaatg6296 -- I don't know anything about this guy, except what I learned from Joanne on the radio the other night, that his initials stand for "It's All About The Game", which I find to be exceedingly ghey. I also have noticed iaatg complaining early and often in the chat box throughout his 40 BBT4 events about how incredibly unlucky he runs, which I don't believe per se, but which I do view as a sign of some poker immaturity. Thus, again assuming we're not dealing with another in the growing list of bloggers with multiple accounts to make extra money at the expense of those who follow the rules, a perceived lack of experience playing the game and playing with this particular group is a slight strike against iaatg's chances. But iaatg also finished the series in 13th place overall on the BBT4 leaderboard, so the guy obviously has some skills. That 13th place showing over 40 tournaments is surely enough to get him above average, but I am still thinking something like 14 to 1 for iaatg here.

inguri -- Here is another person I simply know nothing about. Not a thing. I don't know what event he ever played in the BBT, and I don't remember ever seeing him. I see from the leaderboard that he played just the one event, winning $82 in the process, which means it must have been one of the ghey Brit things. So here's a guy with no real experience playing against this group of players, who won a small, $5 event in his only attempt in the BBT4, which again does not bode well in my book. 35 to 1.

jamyhawk -- I don't remember seeing Jamyhawk much during the BBT4 slate of tournaments to be honest, though I am seeing that he participated in 26 of the 56 total events. In general I think jamy suffers a bit here from not having played nearly as much with this group as he once did, although I seem to recall him winning his way in to the BBT3 ToC as well, so the guy obviously has some ability to win against the bloggers. Jamy's 34th place finish on the BBT4 leaderboard is not bad given that it occurred in less than half of the events of the challenge, so I have to give him some credit there as well. Overall, I see jamy as a guy who could win the grand prize on Sunday, but not someone who I would be inclined to pick to be that winner. I will say a very average rating of 22 to 1 to win it all.

Jimdniacc -- Jim is another guy who fared pretty well overall in the BBT despite playing in only half of the events. His 25 BBT points per event played put him somewhere in the top 10-15 players throughout the BBT4, which is quite good, and jim seems to have amassed some solid experience playing against the bloggers in general over the past year. I don't know much more about him other than this, so basing it just on what I'm seeing on the BBT leaderboard, I would lay jim's odds of winning one of the 10k seats at somewhat better than average -- let's say 17 to 1.

jjok -- JJ, who has been and always will be one of the funniest mf'ers in this group, is another of those guys who played in exactly one BBT event, won it, and then disappeared. So his leaderboard numbers look bad in cumulative terms, but the sample size renders it all pretty meaningless in the end. This leads me to have to look to the past, at JJ's general performance in the blonkaments, where I would say he has been a mixed bag over time. I seem to recall JJ winning a blonkament here and there, although my impression without looking anything up is that those wins have been very few and far between. Combine that with a lack of recent play against most of the competitors who will be in Sunday's BBT4 Tournament of Champions, and I think the odds are against JJ taking down one of the big prizes this weekend. 27 to 1.

Joanne1111 -- Joanne is an interesting case for the BBT4 ToC. The guys on the radio didn't seem to think much of her ToC chances, but I don't necessarily agree, at least not to the extent that they seemed to believe it. Joanne played in just 37 of the 56 events in the BBT4, but in doing so she managed to finish in 12 place overall on a cumulative basis, and compile more than 26 BBT points per tournament in so doing. This is indicative of an top-ten quality performance in the BBT4 overall, which is something that is not easy to do. Unlike some of the other names on this list, Joanne has won several blonkaments in her day, ranging from way back to the WWdN to the more elite and elusive titles of today like the Mookie and the Skillz series. While I do believe that Joanne's lack of aggression tends to make it harder for her to make real deep final table runs, I think the odds of her being alive when the final table hits on Sunday are about as good as anyone in the field's. 15 to 1.

Julkeus -- I just don't know this person at all, though I recognize the name from many of the blonkaments over the past year or 18 months, so I know that Julkeus has the experience part covered pretty good. Julkeus also finished 22nd overall on the BBT4 leaderboard over 44 events played, so he obviously has some skills to speak of as well and is not one of these "get lucky once and done" kind of guys. My biggest issue with Julkeus seems to be the way he finishes his tournaments, as from 9 final tables in the BBT4, he managed to win just $339 and change. With full tilt only awarding the 10k prize packages to the top two finishers in Sunday's Tournament of Champions, I have some doubts about Julkeus's ability to play with the aggression and sense of timing required to last all the way down to the end in what for many players will be the biggest poker tournament of their lives. I will say 20 to 1 for Julkeus to win the big one.

karmarules -- Don't know this person at all. Terrible name, I can tell you that, and one that seems likely to be used by a multi-accounting blogger as much as anyone else. But karma played in exactly two BBT events, and stopped as soon as he/she won one of them, so the experience factor has to cut against this person come ToC time. Absent any other information, I will have to put this person in the pile of ToC participants who don't know most of us, haven't played with us, and as far as I know could be in way over their heads when the final table rolls in on Sunday. 28 to 1.

kickyourace -- I don't know anything about this person either, although some of the guys on the radio the other night seemed to know something about him. I think maybe someone said he was a Riverchasers guy. So that's seventeen one strike against his chances right off the bat. He played 8 of the BBT4 tournaments, cashing in 2 and winning his ToC seat in one of them, so he knows how to play and at least has some experience playing against the group of people he is likely to have sitting at his table come Sunday evening. Based on the limited information I have, I will lay the odds here of winning one of the two 10k prize packages on Sunday at 24 to 1.

lucko21 -- Lucko has been a great tournament player at various times over the past couple of years, although as I have mentioned here in a similar post last year, one of the more streaky players out there in terms of his results. Clearly lucko has the skill to win one of the 10k prizes in the ToC, and he also has run extremely well, almost sickly well, in the blogger tournaments over the past year or so, so he's got that working for him as well. The biggest factors cutting against Lucko winning the seat is that he did not play well or make particularly good decisions in the BBT3 ToC -- he sat at my table for much of that event as I recall -- and more importantly, he just doesn't play a whole lot of poker tournaments anymore from what I understand. Despite these potential shortcomings, however, we've all seen what Lucko can do when given some nice cards and/or 7 or 8 suckouts in the earlygoing of one of our private tournaments, so he is clearly way above average regardless of not having played much recently. 11 to 1.

mclarich -- I don't know a whole lot about mclarich, other than that I recall him winning a few blogger tournaments over the past couple of years of playing together with our group, so there is at least some history of winning there. That said, I am showing him as having played 14 BBT4 events, and only making the top 25% in three of them, and final tabling (and winning) just one. That isn't terrible -- winning a ToC seat in 14 tries is pretty great, actually -- but overall it is not indicative of someone playing great poker or someone on whom I would want to bet a lot to be alive at the very end of the ToC against all of the best players who participated in the BBT4 over the past few months. Despite knowing he has won a few other blonkaments in the past, I'm thinking around 24 to 1 here to be one of the last two players standing on Sunday.

OK that's all I got for today. Thank you again to Al for making all of this possible, not once but several times over the past two-plus years. I will be back tomorrow with a new crop of 8 or 9 ToC runners and my feelings on their chances to win their way into the 2009 World Series of Poker Main Event!