FTOPS Event #1 Recap, and a Hand Analysis Question

Well, FTOPS Event #1 was this past Friday, and it turns out my estimate of 1000 players +/- 10% turned out to be (happily) way, way off. In the end, 1930 or so of my closest friends all joined tournament host Erik Seidel in the 200k guaranteed event, which ultimately sported a prize pool of over $380,000 thanks to a huge influx of signups in the last hour or so before go time. I took this as a very good sign, both for the amount of money to be won in this particular tournament as well as hopefully for the amount of fundage that people still have to play with on full tilt in general, and so I went into my first FTOPS event with optimism, determined not to do anything stupid early and only to make plays for which I have the correct odds and a good reason to believe will be profitable ones overall.

Now let me begin by saying that I busted early. I want to use this post to explain what happened, and hopefully to get everyone's thoughts about the play that knocked me out. I've thought about it quite a bit myself and have come to terms with how it all went down, what if anything I wish I had done differently, etc. But I'm really hoping to get some good analysis and thoughts from you all, as the ability to analyze these hands in a common group on the blog here has undoubtedly contributed majorly to all of my tournament wins as an online poker player. That said, I want to congratulate Raveen for finishing in 111th place, the highest of any of the bloggers I saw playing in this event, as well as Lucko who I saw cashed in the low 200s, and brdweb who I believe also finshed ITM, just behind Lucko again in the low to mid 200s. I was not one of them of course, but congrats to these guys who got the FTOPS started off with a bang with their solid performances, most of all Rav, who needs a shorter blog address but otherwise put in an impressive performance just one or two days after taking down the 9k guaranteed tournament on full tilt for what might have been his first-ever major mtt victory. And while I'm on the topic, I did not see any blogger cashes in FTOPS Event #2 (HORSE) -- Badblood was the highest finisher I saw and he was out of the money somewhere around the middle of the pack -- and in Event #3 on Sunday ($300 buyin nlh which ended up having over an 850k prize pool), the only significant blogger cash I noticed was the venerable Otis from UpForPoker, who ended somewhere in the low to mid 200s for a nice score of around double the buyin for the event, which paid the top 405 finishers in the largest-yet FTOPS field this year. So congratulations to all these guys who are starting off perhaps the last big FTOPS (for American players, anyways) there may ever be on a real high note. I hope to be joining you all soon.

Anyways, back to my performance in Event #1. As I sat down to my starting table, I noticed one of these third-tier full tilt "pros" sitting two seats to my right. You all know these guys -- they show up in red on full tilt in the tournament or table lobbies, and they have their own custom avatars, and yet, you've never fucking heard of them in your entire life. That was me on Friday, as someone named Eric Froehlich was seated with me. Now, let me tell you, I watch a lot of poker on television. I watch ESPN's WSOP coverage, I've been an avid WPT watcher since the very first show of the very first season. I watch High Stakes Poker on GSN quite a bit, and I've even managed to catch most of the episodes of Poker After Dark on NBC, thanks in no small part to my DVR from Time Warner Cable. Anyways, with all this poker I've watched, I have never heard of this fucking guy. I've never even heard his name mentioned, anywhere. Ever.

Edit: I just looked up Mr. Froehlich. It appears he is a bit more renowned that I initially gave him credit for. He won a WSOP bracelet in 2005 in limit holdem (pussy), at the time the youngest-ever WSOP bracelet winner. And then he won another bracelet in 2006, this one in PLO + rebuys. I believe full tilt's website also says he made the final table at the Borgata Open last year. So, although he is more accomplished than I had thought, his lifetime winnings are basically those few cashes there, and it appears he has no major no-limit holdem tournament wins under his belt. So anyways....

Nonetheless, there is this full tilt pro seated two seats to my right, and I was happy if nothing else because I knew if I eliminated this guy, according to full tilt's policy, I would get a bounty of my $216 buyin returned to me for this event. Which, since I won my seat to Event #1 via that "Avatar Race" on my second try, that means I spent a total of $150 qualifying for Events 1, 5 and 8 combined, or $50 to qualify for each of these three events on average. So, even just $216 back to me would mean a 300%+ ROI on Event #1, which is all good. So, I'm thinking about Eric Froehlich, bring it on.

Which he didn't. In fact, I think Eric only won maybe 3 pots in the entire time I was seated at his table, two of which were obvious preflop steals from the button or one off the button which he managed to take down without any resistance from the blinds. This guy played tight and lame, and I was generally unimpressed for a full tilt "pro" but I can't say very unimpressed since I've never heard of the guy anyways, and from watching him I can see why. He's not winning anything big the way he played that night, I'll put it that way.

Anyways enough ragging on a guy who I've never seen, heard of or met before in any way. So we're about 30 minutes into FTOPS Event #1. I've taken down a couple of small pots, and haven't received a good starting hand yet. A9o is the best thing I've seen, and I've managed to steal a few blinds and win one pot where I flopped top pair decent kicker and everyone folded to my potbet on the flop. I'm feeling a bit frustrated at the complete card death, but at the same time it's early and I don't want to lose my mojo. I am right around 2700 chips (blinds are 25-50), and I find 77 in the big blind. Preflop the action folds around to Eric Froehlich, who bumps it up to 150. Now, although I've seen him steal a couple of blinds here, I've also seen him fold in similar situations several times, so I'm putting him on something good but not great here, basically another blind steal attempt but probably with a King, an Ace, something like that. Anyways, it folds to me in the big blind, and I decide to smooth call with my pocket 7s. No need to get a "pro" involved in a raising war with a hand that is likely at best 60% over his hand, and quite possibly just a 51% favorite to two overcards. 7s suck, after all.

So with 325 chips in the pot, here comes a very interesting flop:



As you can see, with just the ass end of the OESD, three overcards on the board, and two suited cards, I opt for the check to the preflop raiser. Eric responds by betting out 2/3 the pot:



What should I be doing here? Folding? Smooth calling? Raising? What would you do in this situation?

I'll tell you what I did. I decided with my draw and my pocket pair, and the fact that I was basically sure he had been on a preflop steal with an only decently good hand with at least one high card, I would go for the raise and try to take this down right now:



In retrospect, I surely wish I had just called here (or folded, though that move seems a bit too pussy for me in this spot), but even as I review the screenshots now, the raise seems fine to me. Thoughts?

Anyways, he almost instantly responds with this:



So here we are. It's 30 minutes in, I am now facing an allin reraise for all my chips with 77 on an 89T flop with two clubs of which I have one. I'm figuring I've got 10 outs (four 6s, four Jacks and two 7s) to win, which gives me about a 40% chance to beat him even if he has a pair so far. Plus, remember I had him on a steal before the flop, with probably at least one high card but nothing great. So I'm not putting him on an overpair here. And, he moved so quickly with the reraise there, I had to figure he's got something here but nothing too great. The instant move is very typical, even among pros (when they don't respect their competition), of trying to give off an impression of strength, which 9 times out of 10 actually means weakness. This all the more true when the player doing it is a 22 year old kid who's won a couple of bracelets (a couple more than I've ever sniffed, mind you) but who's never won a big nlh title. Anyways, as I thought about the right response here, I found myself wondering what would my fake internet friends think I should do here. Of course there's the Smokkee's who I cannot imagine laying down here with this many outs, and there's the Kajagugu's who I'm sure think I have to fold here since I am currently likely behind whatever he has to be pushing like this. But I am interested in your thoughts. Do I call this allin push? Do I have to fold? Should I even still be in this hand at this point? Let me know what you think, and I'll leave some space and then let you know what I did below.















So, I thought and thought and thought about this move. In the end, it was his instant push I think that put me over the edge. I mean, it was me calling 1825 to win 3820, or just better than 2 to 1, and at a 40% chance to win, I figured the pot odds were basically there. He just pushed so fast, I thought he was most likely (1) on a decent pair (but nothing great), or perhaps (hopefully) (2) on a flush draw with at least one overcard. In the end I made the decision to call the allin with my 10 outs on the flop, and he flips over (you wanna guess? I'll leave you some space below):
















QTo. So, my preflop read was more or less right. I figured he had something decent but not great, and this certainly fits the bill. And, my flop read was pretty much correct as well, in that he did in fact have top pair and a pretty decent kicker. But I basically knew where I was at all along here. The one big problem, of course, is that four of my outs just disappeared, in that the Queen in Eric's hand suddenly means that any Jack makes me a Jack-high straight but makes him a Queen-high straight. So, down to 6 outs, I was actually more like 25% to win than the 40% I had figured, but I'm not sure how I can put him on a Queen there so I can't kill myself for that aspect of things. But suffice it to say, my 25% draw did not come through:



and IGH in 1679th place. Just like that. Busted.

So, what do you all think of the way this hand played out? Where, if anywhere, did I go wrong? Should I have folded my 77 and ass-end OESD to his 2/3 potbet on the flop? For that matter, should I have raised this guy out of the hand before the flop with my pocket 7s when I felt fairly sure he was stealing like he was? How about my raise instead of just smooth call on the flop? Also, what do you think of Eric's play here? Was this good poker by him? I'd love to know your thoughts on that question in particular as well. And naturally I imagine a lot of you will take issue with my allin call of Eric's insta-allin reraise after my flop raise. I would really love to hear everyone's opinions on how I played this hand. I have my own thoughts, but maybe I'll save them for a comment, or maybe for tomorrow's post, once everyone else has weighed in. All I ask is that you don't evaluate the play based on what you know happened. Instead, be sure to look at it as if you were there, live, and think about how you would have played the hand without knowing what your opponent ended up having, and without knowing how the final board came down.

OK that is all I wanted to focus on for today. A few other quick administrative announcements as usual before I close up here:



Come out tonight for the usual Monday night Hoy donkery on pokerstars at 10pm ET! Come take your shots to get on the 2007 Hoy money leaderboard, where I currently sit perched atop all others with my two Hoy wins so far in 2007. Get ready for the week in blogger tournaments by starting things off right tonight at Mondays at the Hoy.

Also, I don't have any screenshots yet for you since my internet was quasi-down late last night and this morning, but take my word for it, I qualified for FTOPS Event #6 this weekend in Omaha Eight or Better, rounding out all of the FTOPS events I can possibly play in this year. In the end I qualified for all 6 of the events I'll be playing in, and I figured it out, I spent around $350 to qualify for about $1830 worth of buyins through Events #1, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 10, so I'm really psyched about that. This weekend's qualifier was a 1-seat-awarded job for a $26 token buyin and 20 players vying for the seat. I entered final table play in 3rd of 8 players remaining, and hung around, hit the few big hands I needed to vault into the lead, and then withstood a late push from my heads-up opponent to take the thing down when he flopped trip Queens but I managed to flop a boat with my own Queen at the same time.

One other quick note -- last night I found myself with some time to kill earlier in the evening than usual, so I ended up logging in and playing in both the $26 buyin and the $69 buyin satellites to the Sunday night weekly HORSE guaranteed tournament. Long story short (again, no screenshots up yet though I have plenty on my pc), I ended up qualifying in both of them, for the first time I've ever qualified twice to the same event. My 2nd place and 3rd place finishes in the two events netted me my $216 entry fee into last night's 9:30pm ET 20k guaranteed tournament, as well as another dose of $216 cash money for my efforts, so that was sweet in these days of payment processor troubles as they are. And in case anyone out there was wondering, that's apparently what happens if you qualify for the same tournament twice -- one buyin, and one cash payment. Sweet! What wasn't sweet though was me finishing in 29th place overall in the HORSE guaranteed out of 115 players, when only the top 16 got cash, and when it was 7 of the worst suckouts I've ever seen in my life that ended up keeping me out of things in this tournament. Including a gorgeous hand where a guy who was behind me on both the high and the low side through 6th street hitting a miracle 2 on 7th to give him both the high and the low halves of a huge pot to eliminate me. Effing sick. Typical. But sick. Still, I'll take the extra $216 I made last night in those two HORSE sats, and be happy with that.

One last note: go check out Blinders' post today which details the changes he is seeing in his online cash games as a result of the Neteller withdrawal from the U.S. Lots of good stuff in there, and interesting conclusions he draws. I'd love to know if others agree or disagree with Blinders' findings.

OK that's all for now. See you tonight at Mondays at the Hoy!!