Thursday, October 18, 2007

Mookie, Dookie and Another Frenzy

For starters, congratulations out to BuddyDonk for taking down this week's Mookie tournament, and to LJ for winning the Dookie in Stud Hi. Both were large fields compared to the usual set of runners, and both wins are very impressive for each player, though I did not stick around to watch how either played out after I continued to fulfill my destiny this week by donking early out of every blogger tournament of the week. I really need to get this stuff out of my system before the BBTwo starts this weekend with the Big Game on Sunday night at 9:30pm ET on full tilt, but my performance in the Mookie on Wednesday was almost identical to what happened early in the MATH for me this past Monday. Basically, I flopped a large draw, knew more or less exactly what my opponent had, and moved allin on the opponent in a situation where I know I would have folded in their shoes, in that situation, very early in the tournament and holding the cards they were holding.

In each case, my opponent called (in one case an insta-call), and in both cases my big draw failed to hold up and IGH early. On Monday it was Lucko calling my allin preflop reraise with his 99, in a situation where he could not possibly have believed he was anything better than a 52% favorite. But hey, 52% favorite or 20% underdog? Sure, call it. At least he thought about it though. Now in the Mookie this week, I once again flopped what I figured were two overcards plus a flush draw for a total of 15 outs. I knew from Kat's preflop middle position raise and then her betting out for the full pot on the raggy flop that she had an overpair. I actually figured it was Kings, but instead it turned out to be Jacks. I know because she beat me into the pot calling off her entire stack when I raised her allin on a big overbet on that flop. We're less than half an hour in to the Mookie I think, and I got instacalled on a large overraise by just one pair of Jacks. My 15 outs turned out to only be 12 outs, and I could not hit and I was done, quickly and early yet again.

Sometimes when this happens I like to go nutso in the girly chat, in the blog the next morning, whatever about what a terrible play it was to call my allin very early in a tournament with just a single pair of Jacks, or with just a pair of 9s before the flop like in the MATH the other day. Personally I don't think there's any doubt that these are not the "right" plays to make this early in a tournament and that they are losing plays over time. Both of them -- the calling a large preflop allin reraise with pocket 9s, and calling a large allin raise on the flop with just a pair of Jacks -- are going to be -EV moves over time in poker tournaments, and I will go to my grave saying that because I know it's a true statement as a rule. But you know who really fucked up last night in the Mookie? Me. Again. As I wrote about the other day, I know how Lucko plays in these blogger tournaments, and I've seen him not be able to get out of his own way with his uber-aggressive stance, so I knew he was going to call me when I moved allin so early in the MATH this week. Now, if I knew he was going to call, then suddenly my 48% hand is only worth just that -- 48% -- because there is no fold equity going on if my opponent simply isn't going to fold.

Simiarly, I mentioned that I had put Kat on pocket Kings at this point when the flop came down all raggy. Now I know some people among our group who might easily let go of pocket Jacks on a 942 flop with two to a suit, if they were facing a large allin raise for their entire stack, and we were just a few minutes in to an mtt. Cmitch or KOD might fold that -- especially holding only JJ -- as would I on many occasions. I love when people say in their blogs that "Hoy wouldn't fold this" and "Hoy wouldn't fold that" in the blonkaments. I make big laydowns all the time. You don't win 10 blonkaments this year by being a calling station (yes I was going to link you when I wrote "calling station" there, but I decided against it because I like you) -- and it should be obvious from my track record that I don't insta-call every time someone pushes in on me for a large raise and I have a pair of Jacks. Even if it's an overpair to the board. Yes sure I might make that call sometime based on the board, my read, the player I am up against, etc. But as a rule, calling a large allin raise on the flop very early in an mtt with just a single pair of Jacks, that's not a call I'm making generally. How can you? Late in a tournament, quite possibly with an overpair on the flop like that. But the first few minutes? But see, that's the thing -- that's just me. I knew Kat was going to call. I knew it as surely as I knew some fonkadonk was going to suckle on me early on in the Dookie in a limit tournament full of clowns with no clue how to play stud hi (as an aside, I'm still convinced that at least two of the players at my starting Dookie table thought we were playing stud hilo instead of just stud hi...but I digress). And yet I made the play against Kat anyways, knowing I was only basically a 45-55% hand with two more cards to come. I made a play that a professional in a big-buyin tournament like the WSOP ME or something would almost surely lay down to. But I didn't make the play against a field of professionals, and it certainly wasn't in a tournament that would be taken even a billionth as seriously as the WSOP ME. But I did it anyways.

And that's why I am the King Fonkey of the night, for the second straight blonkament. Pushing allin on the flop with 50% pot equity plus a good amount of fold equity on top is a great play, and early in a tournament is often the best time to do it because it creates the most fold equity in your opponents since they should not be calling allins on races very early in an mtt. But, when you know your opponents are not going to fold to your bet, then your fold equity is zero. So if you push in on the guy who you know isn't going to fold, now you're the guy putting in all your chips very early in a tournament on just a 50% shot. And that makes you just as guilty of making a bad early tournament play as the person who instacalls with a racing hand. So I lay the blame squarely on my shoulders for my performance in this week's MATH and Mookie tournaments, and I'm okay with it. Thursday night is the latest Riverchasers tournament at 9pm ET on full tilt (password is "riverchasers"), and I plan to be there with bells on. Donkey bells. Because I can feel it already, I'm going to use this opportunity to take the last regular-buyin blonkament before BBTwo starts and make the same kind of aggressive moves I've been making this week.

I bet I'm out before 9:30pm today. Anybody want to take that action?

One thing I was very pleased about on Wednesday was seeing that 19 out of the 117 entrants into Wednesday's 9:45pm ET token frenzy were bloggers. That is awesome. I love seeing you guys out there hitting up the frenzy to win your tokens into this Sunday night's Big Game to start BBTwo. We singlehandedly made that token frenzy a good 20% bigger than it normally is, which itself adds a good 6 or 7 Tier II tokens that are awarded to the top finishers in the frenzy, which is goodness for everyone as well. I won my way into the Big Game on Tuesday night, so playing this thing again on Wednesday is more just to accumulate these $75 tokens like I enjoy doing as well as just being part of the larger group of bloggers assailing this tournament, and I am happy to report another success on that front on Wednesday night:

And I am even more happy to report that a whole slew of my blogger brethren (and sistren) were there to win their tokens as well. Wednesday night's list of Tier II token winners from the token frenzy included Jordan, pokerenthusiast, corron10 and LJ in addition to myself, a fact which brings a tear to my eye. I love seeing bloggers succeeding in the world of online poker, and I can never wait to hear the next big score from one of our group. Maybe this FTOPS VI will be the time that one of us finally gets the coveted yellow jacket icon on full tilt? God I hope so. As long as it's not this guy.

So anyways, as of 11:20pm ET on Wednesday, shortly after the token frenzy tokens were awarded, there were already 13 people registered for this weekend's Big Game:

Keep 'em coming guys! Token frenzy is every night this week at 9:45pm ET, and you can find me there probably every night up until the Big Game goes off on Sunday at 9:30pm ET. And don't forget, Riverchasers is tonight at 9pm ET on full tilt as well, so register early and be sure to donk it up in the very last regular $10+ buyin blonkament before the BBTwo rolls into town this weekend. Lord knows I will be tonight.


Blogger jamyhawk said...

I managed to get my token in a TierII SNG. Hope you took some chips from that donkey at our table last night.
See you Sunday.

12:05 AM  
Blogger lucko said...

With my image, when I reraise, I can't be folding 9's preflop very often. People shove me too wide. Who else are you 4 betting ATo all in on early in these things?

Each action as a reaction. If people are shoving lighter, I need to be calling lighter.

1:07 AM  
Blogger Chad C said...

Its $10, nobody is folding an over pair for $10..... That's why mookie and riverchasers are impossible!

1:14 AM  
Blogger Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

Lucko you are so right, I don't repush with ATo there against almost anyone else. I just know how aggro you play these blonkaments, especially in the earlygoing, so I figured I had a good chance of being ahead or at least a race with the ATo. It was a crap play by me like I said, I had no doubt you were calling with whatever you had, and without the fold equity my hand is shit to move in with like that.

Not a big fan of the instacall with JJ though, but what can you do. All I need to do is hit one of my 12 outs maybe once in 25 times I try it and all this talk would be for nought. Instead I would be playing brilliantly and controlling people into doing my bidding at the poker table. But in reality I just get to sit around and lament my shiatty play.

1:20 AM  
Blogger Alan aka RecessRampage said...

HA! Am I the only donkey that didn't use a token to enter Don's big game? Fabulous.

I was gigli last night when Lightning36 was drawing to two outs with one card to come and he catches. That crippled me and I was out few hands later. Not winning was good karma. Now I'm ready to lucksac into the TOC baby!!!

1:25 AM  
Blogger smokkee said...

Chad's right. not many players in the mOOk or Riverchasers are going to fold a pocket pair 99 or higher to an all-in pf raise regardless of how early in the game it is. it's a $10 tourney. make 'em a $50 straight buy-in and those types of calls will not be seen as often. btw, i've seen you post at least 3x in the last few weeks that you died in a tournament with AT. maybe, you shouldn't be pushing so early with it.

5:15 AM  
Blogger katitude said...

Hoy, just as a point of order, I didn't call your allin, I reraised to allin and you called. But it doesn't matter..I'm still a donkey with no clue, right? *grin.

Full Tilt Poker Game #3887703310: The Mookie - Purty Poker (29403300), Table 6 - 25/50 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:23:14 ET - 2007/10/17
Seat 1: Fuel55 (2,880), is sitting out
Seat 2: Marpet1 (2,670)
Seat 3: GScottW (2,560)
Seat 4: NewinNov (4,680)
Seat 5: GCox25 (2,935)
Seat 6: Schaubs (940)
Seat 7: millerd33 (4,020)
Seat 8: katitude (2,970)
Seat 9: hoyazo (3,345)
GCox25 posts the small blind of 25
Schaubs posts the big blind of 50
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to katitude [Jh Jd]
Schaubs: 4's?
NewinNov: T's
millerd33 folds
katitude raises to 150
Schaubs: limped?
Schaubs: ghey
hoyazo calls 150
Fuel55 folds
Marpet1 folds
GScottW folds
NewinNov folds
GCox25 folds
Schaubs folds
*** FLOP *** [Td 6d 3c]
katitude bets 375
hoyazo has 15 seconds left to act
NewinNov: I know but be quiet, I'm still in the closet
katitude: lol
hoyazo raises to 1,600
katitude raises to 2,820, and is all in
hoyazo: KK?
hoyazo has 15 seconds left to act
hoyazo calls 1,220
katitude shows [Jh Jd]
hoyazo shows [Ad 7d]
*** TURN *** [Td 6d 3c] [Jc]
*** RIVER *** [Td 6d 3c Jc] [7h]
katitude shows three of a kind, Jacks
hoyazo shows a pair of Sevens
katitude wins the pot (6,015) with three of a kind, Jacks
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 6,015 | Rake 0
Board: [Td 6d 3c Jc 7h]
Seat 1: Fuel55 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: Marpet1 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: GScottW didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: NewinNov (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: GCox25 (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: Schaubs (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 7: millerd33 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 8: katitude showed [Jh Jd] and won (6,015) with three of a kind, Jacks
Seat 9: hoyazo showed [Ad 7d] and lost with a pair of Sevens

7:14 AM  
Blogger bayne_s said...

I now see your mistake.

It is same one I made with Gary and his Hammer Monday.

As long as the raise radio dial lights up in Poker window some players think they have "fold equity".

You only committed 60% of your chips on flop. Kat's reraise meant you could fold if you felt your hand was less than 20% to win after flop.

Against Gary I allowed him to raise 1300 chips into a 25k pot so he thought I had fold equity.

Next time you'll know better and shove to avoid these misunderstandings.

7:36 AM  
Blogger Blinders said...


I reviewed pretty much this exact situation from the 1k event 2 weeks ago. I argued that the all-in on the flop with the draw was the best play. You argued that my analysis was wrong, and you can't go to war with a draw like that that early. I went back and ran the numbers in detail, and started leaning more towards your argument. I would need a hand history to see for sure, but here are thqa facts as I see it. You have 12 outs if you put Kat on an overpair or KK exactly. 12 outs to a draw vs. an overpair is really about a 40% shot for you. If you remove folding equity, it was a bad play to jam that draw. Not sure how much folding equity you get against KK w/o a hand history, but it is not a ton.

I love how you can wawful back and forth each week arguing the opposite from the week before. It is quite amusing.

10:50 PM  
Blogger Blinders said...

Now that I see the HH from Kat, I don't think you have fold equity there. You only call preflop so doubtfull you were ahead of JJ preflop. Raggedy flop, and you overbet reraise pot committing yourself without going all-in. Strange bet amount, but way too much for a set or 2-pair. I would have put you squarely on a draw there, and I am pushing just like Kat.

10:57 PM  

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