Mookie Thoughts

I just have a couple of quick points that I wanted to cover today.

First off, let me congratulate cmitch on joining the ranks of the donkeymofos really nice people who have won the Mookie tournament. That is a real accomplishment, especially for a guy who does not play too many of our blonkaments to begin with. I totally did not watch the last couple hours of action in this thing, but I think the last time I logged on with around 30 players remaining, cmitch was already in the chip lead, so it sounds like he ripped shit up all through the night on his way to joining the esteemed wall of fame down at the Big O poker room in Austin. Knowing that I can never get up on that wall makes it a bit jealousy-inspiring for me whenever someone new joins the ranks of eternal fame, but also somewhat awe-inspiring since I know just how impossible it is to get your picture up for all times at the Big O. Oh, and to KOD who won his second straight Dookie title this week in turbo razz, you can say whatever you want in the girly chat to me, but two straight Dookie wins is in fact nowhere near equal to one Mookie win. Nice try bub, I only wish it were that easy.

Speaking of the Mookie, for those of you who were not listening on Buddydank Radio early in the show yesterday, or maybe for those of you whose ears went permanently deaf after The Original Rantbox of all people said that I'm a nice guy but that I am just not suited for poker, Mookie and I officially agreed on our prop bet for 2008 for the Mookie tournament, both of us having never won the online version of this thing since it became what it is today. If one of either Mookie or myself wins the Mookie during 2008, then, in addition to the cash prize and the glory and the portrait on the esteemed Big O poker room wall and the winner's profile on Mookie's blog, the winner will also have his next three months' worth of Mookie tournament buyins paid for by the non-winner at $11 a pop. So this will add a little insult to injury to me when Mookie finally gets the victory that he's been so close to a few times before. I will keep crushing all the other blonkaments into oblivion, and Mookie will get the glory he deserves in addition to approximately $120 in prop bet victory cash from me as well when he finally takes his own tournament down. Can't wait for that one. Do I at least get to make up the profile questions for Mookie if he wins, since I will be paying him $120 in addition to all the glory coming his way? Something to think about.

Speaking of glory, the other thing I wanted to talk about today was how I actually got eliminated from the Mookie this week. I played ok in the earlygoing, winning my biggest pot of the night against LJ with 82s in a hand where I rereraised allin on the flop with top pair, and everyone around the table had the Jergens™ out in the hopes that she was holding AQ. Otherwise, the Mookie Curse was of course in effect, first when I raised about 15 minutes in and got one caller from the blinds when I held QQ. The flop came a nice-looking 9TJ rainbow, giving me the open-ender plus an overpair. RaisingCayne checked, I bet 260 into the 280-chip pot, and Cayne called. The turn brought a second 9 and another check from Cayne, and at this point I figured it was wiser to control the pot with a check, since I had just one pair on a scary board that just got a little bit scarier with the turn card and since I was the one with the nice draw as well. Well, the river nailed me with a beautiful King to fill my straight. This time Cayne led out with a bet of about 3/4 the size of the pot. Having made my straight on the river, and since I held two Queens in my hand therefore making it highly unlikely that Cayne also had one of the two remaining Queens, I figured a raise was in order. I didn't need to bump him allin since with the pair on the board he could have had a made boat, but to be honest I figured trips or two pairs was the much more likely scenario given the betting so far in the hand, especially with the way I have seen Cayne push things in the past when he is strong. So I raised him I think a little more than the size of the pot, and he just called. Wanna know what he had? AQ. So the river makes me my inside straight but also manages to make him a higher straight after calling my flop potbet with just the oesd. Lovely. And yet standard. Mookie-standard for me anyways.

But that was not what I actually wanted to talk about today. That Mookie Curse hand only eliminated a little over half my stack just 15 minutes in. The hand that actually knocked me out of the tournament was I think more worthy of discussion here. Basically, with me down to only around 1200 chips or so and the blinds still at 20-40 just around 20 minutes in to the tournament, Peaker in early-middle position raised it up to 140, and someone who I honestly cannot remember smooth called that 140-chip bet immediately to Peaker's left. When the action got to me in I think the blinds, I looked down to find the Hammer, so of course I pushed it allin for my last 1200 or so chips. Why not, it's the Hammer and that's my job. Peaker, as one could have predicted given his tight nature and the call and then allin raise behind him, folded, and the action was to this last player. He thought for maybe 5 seconds, typed something in about me knowing Peaker would fold, and then he called my allin for around 30 big blinds. And what did he call my for 30 big blinds (significantly more than half his stack, as I recall) with less than 25 minutes into the Mookie tournament?

22.

A pair of frigging deuces.

Now let's review. I am sure I've seen this on other blogs before, and frankly I'm just as sure that I've written directly about this myself right here on my own blog. But for some reason I feel like if I can even get through to one person out there who does not understand this very important principle about no-limit holdem, then maybe that will make this all worthwhile. So here we are 24 minutes into the Mookie, the guy is holding pocket 2s, and he is sitting on a nice deep stack for this blinds level of around 45 big blinds. He puts around 3 big blinds into the pot preflop on a smooth call of a tight player's preflop raise, and now here goes Hoyazo -- with whatever aggro donkey image you feel like assigning to me, go nuts -- moving allin for 30 big blinds. Tighty Peaker folds, and the action is back to our target player who has to either fold his mighty pocket 2s, or call for 30 big blinds and two-thirds of his stack just 24 minutes into the Mookie.

Now, some of you might be tempted to think that, since I am so obviously donkeyboy aggro jackass monkeyface idiot fuckhead loser shiteater cockballs Hoyazo, I might be pushing here with absolute and utter garbage. And hey, this guy has a pocket pair, so why not call here, right? He's got to be ahead, right?

This analysis could not possibly be any further from correct. First of all, I deny that I am a "shiteater" and I will go to my grave with that denial. Secondly, and more importantly from a nlh strategy perspective, what do you think you are getting by calling here with 22? Let's assign some equity to that hand here before the flop. Let's just take the absolute worst thing for me that I could possibly be doing here from a mathetmatical perspective, and say I am pushing allin here with literally Any Two Cards. Any two. Not even looking at my holecards, but I just saw a tight guy raise, an unknown guy call the raise, and I'm looking to push here and add a quarter of my stack on top of what I already have by raising it allin with no regard whatsoever to my holecards. Great. What do you think 22's chances are when allin preflop against ATC? Think about it now. What if I actually have a pocket pair, a reasonable holding given my allin reraise of two raisers and callers preflop, no? Then the pocket deuces are a 20% underdog.

So if I have a pocket pair, the deuces have approximately 20% equity. Now let's assume I don't have a pocket pair. Let's assume it is just any two random unpaired cards. Let's assume it's two shitty cards even, because it helps to illustrate my point very well. Say I have the collosally shitty hand of 83o. An Eight and a Trey, not soooted. What happens when you call my allin for 30 big blinds 24 minutes into the Mookie with pocket 2s? Well I'll tell you what happens. It's the classic race situation. A pocket pair vs. two overcards. It doesn't matter if my overcards are a lowly 8 and a 3, unconnected and unsoooted. My 83o has exactly the same chances against your 22 as A9o would have against 88, or very close to the same chances that AK would have against QQ. We're talking about all the same numbers here -- basically, a race situation. It's less than 55% in favor of the pocket pair against two random overcards. And I've got news for some of the numbers-challenged among you out there -- when you are holding 22, it's all overcards! It doesn't matter what garbage cockshit cheesefucker cards I am holding. Unless I also happen to have one of the three remaining deuces left in the deck, you are no better than a 52, 53% favorite. It is simply impossible to be anything else.

Now it's an entirely different can of worms if you have 22 and you choose to put in a substantial raise with your 22. Now you may pick up quite a bit of fold equity to go along with your roughly 50% at best pot equity in the hand, so that can be a fine move. Not one I recommend in any way against anyone showing strength -- no matter how monkey aggro shitforbrains moronic assheady you think they are -- just 24 minutes into an mtt, but at least you can justify that move by thinking there is, say, a 75% chance that your heads-up opponent will fold, plus a roughly 50% chance that you will be win if he calls you with two unpaired overcards. That gives you an overall equity of well into the 80s and if you want to take that chance early in an mtt, at least it can be justified on those grounds.

But, and I am speaking in facts and not opinions here, I don't think there is a possible poker-sensible justification for calling an allin for 30 big blinds with pocket 2s just 21 minutes into an mtt. Realistically speaking, there is a greater than 95% chance that you are either a 20% dog or a 52% favorite. Realistically, it's almost impossible for you to be anything better than racing here -- and you might well be up against a pocket pair as shitty as 33 in which case you are still only 20% to win, and you're willingly choosing to do so for two-thirds of your stack and 30 big binds just 21 minutes in to an mtt? I mean, I know quite a few calldonks out there among our ghey little blogging crew, but even most of you fewls know better than to call here. And of course the results of this play last night (I was eliminated early from the Mookie by this call) are completely irrelevant to the point I am making -- as in, the results literally could not have any less relevance because their relevance is precisely zero to the very accurate point I am making here: You cannot profitably call with pocket 2s for 30 big blinds just 21 minutes into a regular-speed mtt. You can't even make this call in a turbo mtt. Not if you want to play correct, intelligent, profitable poker you cannot. And none of us have any choice or opinion or debate in this matter, either.

End of story. Don't call with low pocket pairs -- least of all pocket 2s -- for a significant size stack very early in an mtt that you want to win. It's bad poker. Integrate and incorporate that into your mtt game, and then I am fine with this week's Mookie Curse and my continued complete inability to survive in this thing no matter how well I play or how well I hit the board like in the hand with Cayne. Just don't make my efforts here today go to waste by not taking the time to understand what I'm saying. Do me that one favor, please. Humor me. Just move your eyes over the words at least and pretend you understand, willya?

Riverchasers tonight, 9pm ET on full tilt. Password as always is "riverchasers". Why I keep playing these things with the plays that are made against me and then of course rewarded by full tilt on a regular basis is beyond me, but I am already registered and I await the beating. Just try not to call me allin in the first 30 minutes with any pair lower than 6s if you can help yourselves, mmmmmkay?