Thursday, January 10, 2008

Mookie Thoughts

I just have a couple of quick points that I wanted to cover today.

First off, let me congratulate cmitch on joining the ranks of the donkeymofos really nice people who have won the Mookie tournament. That is a real accomplishment, especially for a guy who does not play too many of our blonkaments to begin with. I totally did not watch the last couple hours of action in this thing, but I think the last time I logged on with around 30 players remaining, cmitch was already in the chip lead, so it sounds like he ripped shit up all through the night on his way to joining the esteemed wall of fame down at the Big O poker room in Austin. Knowing that I can never get up on that wall makes it a bit jealousy-inspiring for me whenever someone new joins the ranks of eternal fame, but also somewhat awe-inspiring since I know just how impossible it is to get your picture up for all times at the Big O. Oh, and to KOD who won his second straight Dookie title this week in turbo razz, you can say whatever you want in the girly chat to me, but two straight Dookie wins is in fact nowhere near equal to one Mookie win. Nice try bub, I only wish it were that easy.

Speaking of the Mookie, for those of you who were not listening on Buddydank Radio early in the show yesterday, or maybe for those of you whose ears went permanently deaf after The Original Rantbox of all people said that I'm a nice guy but that I am just not suited for poker, Mookie and I officially agreed on our prop bet for 2008 for the Mookie tournament, both of us having never won the online version of this thing since it became what it is today. If one of either Mookie or myself wins the Mookie during 2008, then, in addition to the cash prize and the glory and the portrait on the esteemed Big O poker room wall and the winner's profile on Mookie's blog, the winner will also have his next three months' worth of Mookie tournament buyins paid for by the non-winner at $11 a pop. So this will add a little insult to injury to me when Mookie finally gets the victory that he's been so close to a few times before. I will keep crushing all the other blonkaments into oblivion, and Mookie will get the glory he deserves in addition to approximately $120 in prop bet victory cash from me as well when he finally takes his own tournament down. Can't wait for that one. Do I at least get to make up the profile questions for Mookie if he wins, since I will be paying him $120 in addition to all the glory coming his way? Something to think about.

Speaking of glory, the other thing I wanted to talk about today was how I actually got eliminated from the Mookie this week. I played ok in the earlygoing, winning my biggest pot of the night against LJ with 82s in a hand where I rereraised allin on the flop with top pair, and everyone around the table had the Jergens™ out in the hopes that she was holding AQ. Otherwise, the Mookie Curse was of course in effect, first when I raised about 15 minutes in and got one caller from the blinds when I held QQ. The flop came a nice-looking 9TJ rainbow, giving me the open-ender plus an overpair. RaisingCayne checked, I bet 260 into the 280-chip pot, and Cayne called. The turn brought a second 9 and another check from Cayne, and at this point I figured it was wiser to control the pot with a check, since I had just one pair on a scary board that just got a little bit scarier with the turn card and since I was the one with the nice draw as well. Well, the river nailed me with a beautiful King to fill my straight. This time Cayne led out with a bet of about 3/4 the size of the pot. Having made my straight on the river, and since I held two Queens in my hand therefore making it highly unlikely that Cayne also had one of the two remaining Queens, I figured a raise was in order. I didn't need to bump him allin since with the pair on the board he could have had a made boat, but to be honest I figured trips or two pairs was the much more likely scenario given the betting so far in the hand, especially with the way I have seen Cayne push things in the past when he is strong. So I raised him I think a little more than the size of the pot, and he just called. Wanna know what he had? AQ. So the river makes me my inside straight but also manages to make him a higher straight after calling my flop potbet with just the oesd. Lovely. And yet standard. Mookie-standard for me anyways.

But that was not what I actually wanted to talk about today. That Mookie Curse hand only eliminated a little over half my stack just 15 minutes in. The hand that actually knocked me out of the tournament was I think more worthy of discussion here. Basically, with me down to only around 1200 chips or so and the blinds still at 20-40 just around 20 minutes in to the tournament, Peaker in early-middle position raised it up to 140, and someone who I honestly cannot remember smooth called that 140-chip bet immediately to Peaker's left. When the action got to me in I think the blinds, I looked down to find the Hammer, so of course I pushed it allin for my last 1200 or so chips. Why not, it's the Hammer and that's my job. Peaker, as one could have predicted given his tight nature and the call and then allin raise behind him, folded, and the action was to this last player. He thought for maybe 5 seconds, typed something in about me knowing Peaker would fold, and then he called my allin for around 30 big blinds. And what did he call my for 30 big blinds (significantly more than half his stack, as I recall) with less than 25 minutes into the Mookie tournament?

22.

A pair of frigging deuces.

Now let's review. I am sure I've seen this on other blogs before, and frankly I'm just as sure that I've written directly about this myself right here on my own blog. But for some reason I feel like if I can even get through to one person out there who does not understand this very important principle about no-limit holdem, then maybe that will make this all worthwhile. So here we are 24 minutes into the Mookie, the guy is holding pocket 2s, and he is sitting on a nice deep stack for this blinds level of around 45 big blinds. He puts around 3 big blinds into the pot preflop on a smooth call of a tight player's preflop raise, and now here goes Hoyazo -- with whatever aggro donkey image you feel like assigning to me, go nuts -- moving allin for 30 big blinds. Tighty Peaker folds, and the action is back to our target player who has to either fold his mighty pocket 2s, or call for 30 big blinds and two-thirds of his stack just 24 minutes into the Mookie.

Now, some of you might be tempted to think that, since I am so obviously donkeyboy aggro jackass monkeyface idiot fuckhead loser shiteater cockballs Hoyazo, I might be pushing here with absolute and utter garbage. And hey, this guy has a pocket pair, so why not call here, right? He's got to be ahead, right?

This analysis could not possibly be any further from correct. First of all, I deny that I am a "shiteater" and I will go to my grave with that denial. Secondly, and more importantly from a nlh strategy perspective, what do you think you are getting by calling here with 22? Let's assign some equity to that hand here before the flop. Let's just take the absolute worst thing for me that I could possibly be doing here from a mathetmatical perspective, and say I am pushing allin here with literally Any Two Cards. Any two. Not even looking at my holecards, but I just saw a tight guy raise, an unknown guy call the raise, and I'm looking to push here and add a quarter of my stack on top of what I already have by raising it allin with no regard whatsoever to my holecards. Great. What do you think 22's chances are when allin preflop against ATC? Think about it now. What if I actually have a pocket pair, a reasonable holding given my allin reraise of two raisers and callers preflop, no? Then the pocket deuces are a 20% underdog.

So if I have a pocket pair, the deuces have approximately 20% equity. Now let's assume I don't have a pocket pair. Let's assume it is just any two random unpaired cards. Let's assume it's two shitty cards even, because it helps to illustrate my point very well. Say I have the collosally shitty hand of 83o. An Eight and a Trey, not soooted. What happens when you call my allin for 30 big blinds 24 minutes into the Mookie with pocket 2s? Well I'll tell you what happens. It's the classic race situation. A pocket pair vs. two overcards. It doesn't matter if my overcards are a lowly 8 and a 3, unconnected and unsoooted. My 83o has exactly the same chances against your 22 as A9o would have against 88, or very close to the same chances that AK would have against QQ. We're talking about all the same numbers here -- basically, a race situation. It's less than 55% in favor of the pocket pair against two random overcards. And I've got news for some of the numbers-challenged among you out there -- when you are holding 22, it's all overcards! It doesn't matter what garbage cockshit cheesefucker cards I am holding. Unless I also happen to have one of the three remaining deuces left in the deck, you are no better than a 52, 53% favorite. It is simply impossible to be anything else.

Now it's an entirely different can of worms if you have 22 and you choose to put in a substantial raise with your 22. Now you may pick up quite a bit of fold equity to go along with your roughly 50% at best pot equity in the hand, so that can be a fine move. Not one I recommend in any way against anyone showing strength -- no matter how monkey aggro shitforbrains moronic assheady you think they are -- just 24 minutes into an mtt, but at least you can justify that move by thinking there is, say, a 75% chance that your heads-up opponent will fold, plus a roughly 50% chance that you will be win if he calls you with two unpaired overcards. That gives you an overall equity of well into the 80s and if you want to take that chance early in an mtt, at least it can be justified on those grounds.

But, and I am speaking in facts and not opinions here, I don't think there is a possible poker-sensible justification for calling an allin for 30 big blinds with pocket 2s just 21 minutes into an mtt. Realistically speaking, there is a greater than 95% chance that you are either a 20% dog or a 52% favorite. Realistically, it's almost impossible for you to be anything better than racing here -- and you might well be up against a pocket pair as shitty as 33 in which case you are still only 20% to win, and you're willingly choosing to do so for two-thirds of your stack and 30 big binds just 21 minutes in to an mtt? I mean, I know quite a few calldonks out there among our ghey little blogging crew, but even most of you fewls know better than to call here. And of course the results of this play last night (I was eliminated early from the Mookie by this call) are completely irrelevant to the point I am making -- as in, the results literally could not have any less relevance because their relevance is precisely zero to the very accurate point I am making here: You cannot profitably call with pocket 2s for 30 big blinds just 21 minutes into a regular-speed mtt. You can't even make this call in a turbo mtt. Not if you want to play correct, intelligent, profitable poker you cannot. And none of us have any choice or opinion or debate in this matter, either.

End of story. Don't call with low pocket pairs -- least of all pocket 2s -- for a significant size stack very early in an mtt that you want to win. It's bad poker. Integrate and incorporate that into your mtt game, and then I am fine with this week's Mookie Curse and my continued complete inability to survive in this thing no matter how well I play or how well I hit the board like in the hand with Cayne. Just don't make my efforts here today go to waste by not taking the time to understand what I'm saying. Do me that one favor, please. Humor me. Just move your eyes over the words at least and pretend you understand, willya?

Riverchasers tonight, 9pm ET on full tilt. Password as always is "riverchasers". Why I keep playing these things with the plays that are made against me and then of course rewarded by full tilt on a regular basis is beyond me, but I am already registered and I await the beating. Just try not to call me allin in the first 30 minutes with any pair lower than 6s if you can help yourselves, mmmmmkay?

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18 Comments:

Blogger yancy said...

What hand that you can beat calls your river raise with QQ on the 9TJ9K board? Not sarcasm, honest question.

12:19 AM  
Blogger Pythor said...

Uhh... "three remaining dueces"? What cards are you playing with, Hoy?

12:26 AM  
Blogger Blinders said...

You cant profitably jam 72o this early in an MTT. End of story. My money is on Mookie.

1:18 AM  
Blogger Chad C said...

I cannot read the rest of your post once I hit a reference to Jergens and the virtual masturbatory club. I also squeezed all in with hammer only to realize later that buddydank of all people was in the hand. When does he NOT have a hand?

1:55 AM  
Blogger HighOnPoker said...

Yancy, A9 for one. There is your answer (although there are a few more hands too).

Hoy, I've made this comment here before, probably over a year ago at this point, so it's time for a reminder. To improve at poker, you must focus on your play not your opponents' play. Now, perhaps you are writing about the 22 call because you want to educate your readers, but Blinders has a really good point: you allowed that situation to happen by pushing with the hammer. To improve your success, you need to take responsibility for your role in that hand. You can't teach the whole world not to call with 22. You can teach yourself not to push with the hammer. There will always be players making bad calls. On a related note, I love playing the hammer, but I NEVER go all-in with it. That's the hammer curse. It always gets called when you are all-in.

2:14 AM  
Blogger Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

Yeah I mean Yancy, there are definitely a number of hands on the 9TJ9K board that call the specific raise I put in there on the river. Any 9 will call it for sure, given my turn check. And I mean any 9. As I think will most two pairs -- remember this is not Phil Hellmuth of the legendary laydowns I am playing against here. So, KJ, KT, AA, and I think even a hand like AK is likely to call there. Precisely why I raised the amount that I did. I don't think AA and AK and KJ/KT call with the 4 to an inside straight on the board if I push allin in that spot. But for my raise size of just more than a minraise, I would say mostly all of the hands above will call my raise, and they're all behind my hand.

Thank you for the question though, which is a very relevant question that has to be asked any time you bet a good but non-nuts hand on the river in a game like this.

2:32 AM  
Blogger Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

Blinders, do I smell a prop bet on our prop bet? How much are you willing to put up that I win the Mookie before Mookie does?

2:33 AM  
Blogger Mike Maloney said...

22 is an easy call here. Squeeze play from Hoy in the SB is the hammer 95% of the time. As a 2:1 favorite, gotta call.

Duh Hoy, learn to play poker.

3:13 AM  
Blogger Schaubs said...

The hammer is so Passé.

F the hammer.

Long live Aces.

3:19 AM  
Blogger RaisingCayne said...

I had a STRONG feeling I was going to catch some flack for the early suckout I gave ya Hoy! (But thank you very much for discussing a WORSE play in your post than mine! I really appreciate that!)

My check-call of the near-pot bet with just AQ on the flop of 9TJ was donkeyesque for sure! Stupid decision that was paid off by FT RNG in the end. Not at all justifiable! I wasn't getting the odds to hit, as your flop bet should've 'priced out' any and all drawing hands... there was NO way I was ahead... no reason to conclude I could take the pot away from you later... NO reason at all to call the flop bet there! Sorry!!!

In hindsight too, the worst part about it was that I DID think about it. It wasn't an insta-call by any means, I thought it over and came to the WRONG decision... and can't even tell you why the next day!? Funky. (Guess I knew your Mookie luck would lead me to win the pot?!) Hopefully I've learned!

I should probably rub it in though that I sure was thankful when you checked the turn 9, as I had already had my mouse on the fold button after I checked to you. I just smooth called your river re-raise as I felt there was a high chance you did have a full house given the check after the board paired on the turn. As soon as the hands were turned over I knew I was deserving of a little rant here. Sorry!!! No hard feelings, I hope!?

I couldn't agree with you more about the EARLY call with pocket 2s! That's a ridiculously awful play. I think tiny pocket pairs are the poorest played holdings in poker. Hell, I sort of regretted my all in PUSH with 44 at the final table, when we were just 4seated... let alone an all in CALL with 22 at the FIRST table! Ridiculous.

Good luck against Mookie with the prop bet this year! Will be entertaining to watch...

~Cayne

4:08 AM  
Blogger PokerFool said...

Love the rant post. Classic :)

About the QQ hand. I too, am trying to think of a hand that calls a raise that you beat. I can't think of one. I don't think A9 calls a pot bet on the flop. And I highly doubt A9 calls the river raise. 98 for the same reason.

JT won't call the raise as the nine pairing counterfits his two pair to a higher pair (Plus the 4 straight on the board).

The only thing that a raise might accomplish is getting another Q to fold because of the board being paired (A hand like QT or QJ). What other hands can there be that you beat? You really think KJ or KT call that? And do you think AA never raises prior to the river?

This is very good hand for discussion :)

4:26 AM  
Blogger Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

Cayne, I don't think your flop call was that bad. My bet did not give you proper odds to chase just the oesd, but to the extent that you think your Ace and even your Queen might be overcard outs as well, it's not such a bad call anymore.

As usual, my real complaint is the setup foisted upon me by the full tilt rng and not the play by you. I want you making that call every day of the week on the flop of course, and frankly I don't expect anyone in these blonkaments to lay down a primary draw on the flop even to a potbet.

Nice playing with you. One of these days I'm going to lay 89 suckouts on people and win a Mookie. Just hoping I'm not old and gray by the time that happens.

5:00 AM  
Blogger Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

Pokerfool, those are all good comments. The thing is, when I've been called down enough times by guys with just draws, inside straight draws, pocket 2s, JTo allin preflop, etc., then at some point I think you have to stop imputing all this logic to my opponents' previous actions in the hand. Like I said I like every deduction you made about what hands would and would not have called the flop and so on. But the thing is, A9 calls me on the 9TJ flop all the time in the blonkaments, like calling is going out of style. It's just the way it is.

Oh would that I could use simple hand reading techniques like this in the blonkaments anymore.

And I will buy your AA comment about not raising prior to the river. But I definitely think KJ or KT and even AK call me, yes. And without a doubt any slow-played 9 on the turn. Phil Hellmuth maybe not, but a blonkey looking for his 15 minutes of rantfame? All day.

5:03 AM  
Blogger PokerFool said...

Good Point Hoy. I'm sure people play against you differently and call/raise light in the off chance that they suckout, and get to be included in a great Hoy rant.

People know how you usually play in these blonkaments, but I would bet that if you played tight, regular, plain 'ole ABC Harrington on Hold 'em Poker, with no crazy bluffing, that you would win one of these blonkaments soon.

In fact, if you play this way in the next two weeks worth of blonkaments, you will win one. I guarentee it.

8:06 AM  
Blogger JD Schellnutt said...

I'm your huckleberry. That was me that donkey called your push with 22 last night (worth it just to be immortalized in a Hoy rant). It was bad, but recheck your hand history...Peaker UTG+1 3x BB raise, me next cold call the known tight player early position raise (he never does this without a big hand) for set mining possibility wanting limp cascade behind. Now my stack at start of hand was more like 3800 your 1160...you push and peaker folds... leaving me 1010 to call for existing current pot of 1535 (you were button not blind). I do not claim to be a good poker player as I will call off less than 1/3 of my remaining stack there early in mtt or not getting 3:2 on a hand I am MOST LIKELY 52% to win. Do I make that call if that was Buddy Dank (AA, KK, AK) pushing, Poker Peaker pushing (AA, KK, AK, QQ)??? Emphatically no as the "MOST LIKELY" above would not be capitalized (80:20 more likely). Knowing your confidence in your ability to recover from your previous beat that made you short, I know your are fully capable of the squeeze there over a tight player and unkown limper as upi would not push that early with still over 1000 chips and blinds 25/50. I am in no way defending my play, just showing that the true math of the exact situation in no way matched your post of this here Donkey "calling of 2/3 of their stack. It was less than 1/3 and I will flip you every time for 3:2 there. Thanks for your advice though. GOOD LUCK. Can't play RC tonight to donk you my chips...maybe Monday or Chad's game Tuesday.

9:58 AM  
Blogger kavicarter said...

Is there a listing of poker blogs I can add my blog too?

10:51 AM  
Blogger JD Schellnutt said...

CONGRATS ON RC!
Jerkoff Donkey Schellnutt

12:30 PM  
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3:41 PM  

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