Friday, September 25, 2009

NFL Pick 5 -- Week 3

So I went 2-3 against the spread with my Pick Five picks in Week 2. I nailed two big upsets by underdogs right, essentially predicting exactly how the Jets would beat the Cheatriots and the Saints would crush the Eagles, but then I was on the losing end of the last-second comebacks by both the Giants over the Cowboys and the Colts over the Dolphins near the end of the week's action. Of course I also took the loss betting on the Detroit Lions, who played the overhyped Packers tough but who could not keep it to single digits as the game wore on. So far, Brett Favre has been pretty damn near unimpressive in doing very little for the offense in Minnesota, but the team is 2-0 and is facing one of the very worst teams the NFL has to offer in the Rams this weekend.

So here's my NFL Pick 5 for Week 3, as usual in no particular order:

1. I'm going to start this week with what is probably the most obvious game on the slate for the weekend, and that is to take the Tennessee Titans + 3 points at the New York Jets. Yes, the Jets have looked awesome. Yes they just beat the Cheatriots last weekend for the first time at home in nine years. Yes they have the best defense in the NFL through two games. And yes, Tennessee is 0-2 while the Jets are 2-0. But let's be honest here -- the Titans are probably the best 0-2 team in history, and the Jets, with their rookie quarterback who still only has about 15 total starts under his belt including college, and their rookie head coach are probably not the strongest 2-0 team we've ever seen either. And the Titans are nothing is not utterly desperate right now. This is a team that started off 2008 10-0 before this same Jets squad broke their streak, and with Chris Johnson stepping up so far there's no reason to think they are any worse than last year's Titans, so I think there's a good chance that Jeff Fisher finds a way to pull this one out. Plus field goal of a buffer with the points, and this one has to be Tennessee in my book.

2. Green Bay - 6.5 points at St. Louis. I just can't pass this matchup up, even with the fluffy line for a road team that itself has played mediocrely so far this year. But the Rams have perhaps the worst defense in the entire NFL, and that should bode well for Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings, Donald Driver et al. Combined with this being an indoor game with less opportunity to disrupt the Packers' offense, and I think Green Bay bounces back from a bad loss to win by more than a touchdown on the road this weekend.

3. New Orleans - 6 at Buffalo. Here's another road favorite I like this week, as a less than a touchdown line for far and away the league's best offensive team against an undermatched Buffalo defense could spell big trouble for the Bills. Yes they have TO this year, but so far he has dropped more passes than the five he's caught all year, and I can't see TO being a huge factor against the Saints' juggernaut offense. If this game happens in late December in Buffalo then things might change, but right now I'm expecting another many points put up by the Saints and a win of more than 6 on the weekend.

4. San Francisco + 7 at the Vikings. The 49ers were one of my sleeper picks to win the NFC West just before the season started, and so far they have made me look good as the team is really coming together for second-year head coach Mike Singletary. At 2-0 the team could easily be ready for a loss, especially on the road at everyone's favorite pick in the NFC North, the Brett Favre-led Vikings. The Vikes have looked anything but sharp so far in two victories, and we all know the quarterback is just an interception avalanche waiting to happen, so with the full 7 point spread I think this becomes good value for the 9ers and the points.

5. Arizona - 2.5 at home vs. the Colts. I don't love having to give the 2 1/2 points vs a team like the Colts, who showed us their quick-strike ability over and over again last Monday night against the defenseless Dolphins. But something tells me that Kurt Warner can bust out another win here at home to follow up on last week's 24-for-26 performance. That guy really is amazing, and I haven't been impressed yet with the Colts in their two wins. Indy loses its first game of the year, and I'll assume it is by at least a field goal and take the Cardinals.

Best of luck if you're playing the games this weekend.

Your World Champion Philadelphia Phillies' magic number to clinch the NL East: 4.

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Blogger VinNay said...

My 2 cents on Saints vs Bills -

Buffalo D is better than you might think, but against that offense, I have to agree with you. The only hope I have for a Buffalo win is weather. Looks like it gonna be 50's and raining. Drew is terrible in the rain and if the weather can keep this game on the ground, the Bills *might* have a shot at beating the spread.

11:01 PM  

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