Saturday, January 09, 2010

NFL Wilcard Weekend Picks

After the way I ended the NFL season this year, I figured I obviously have to make my picks for the NFL playoffs as well. Just remember that I think I won exactly 4 games out of my last 20 picks of the NFL season. So these are probably better to fade than to go along with.

1. New York Jets +3 at the Cincinnati Bengals. I haven't made any bones about my disgust that the Jets backed into the playoffs after beating two teams who each did not play their players and really treat the game like one that had to be won. I don't think the Jets deserve to be in the playoffs, I think the way playoff-bound NFL teams lie down and affect other playoff races in so doing every single year is redonkulous, and I do not think the Jets had a particularly good year in 2009. All that said, something tells me that last week's 37-0 blowout by the Jets was not quite an aberration. The Bengals will play better this weekend, of that I am absolutely certain, but I think with the Jets' chances to win this game, plus 3 points to boot, the value is definitely on NY in this game.

2. Philadelphia Eagles +4 at Dallas Cowboys. I think Dallas has a good chance of winning this game, a better chance than the Eagles do for that matter given the situation and the location of the game in Dallas thanks to last week's Cowboys blowout over Philly. But four points sounds like a bit too much for me. Again I see the value with the underdog plus the points in Saturday's other NFL playoff game.

3. Baltimore Ravens +3.5 at the New England Patriots. Another wildcard round game, another underdog pick from me. After losing Wes Welker to injury last week, I just don't see how there is value in picking an inconsistent New England team to beat the streaking Ravens by more than a field goal. Welker catches about 10 balls a game and is an absolutely key part of his team's possession offense, and without him there is no chance anyone else on that squad can pick up the slack in any meaningful way.

4. Green Bay Packers (pickem) at the Arizona Cardinals. Despite a bit of a late-season turnaround, the Cardinals never got into a particular groove at home in 2009, while the Packers head into the playoffs one of the hottest teams in the NFC. Something tells me the Cardinals' quest to repeat as NFC champions ends on Sunday in front of the home town fans and at the hands of Aaron Rodgers and the overpowering Packers passing offense.

So there you go. Fade away!

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Blogger OES said...

with the patriots game, I also see the inconsistency with the use of your pet name towards the Pats.

Though Welker was a huge blow to the Pats chances, watch for Edelman. soooo good too.

3:09 AM  
Blogger Schaubs said...

I'll fade all your picks except GB...

Pats have not lost at home all weekend and the ravens have only beat OAK and CLE on the road this year. There's a stat.

CIN will cover because Sanchez will choke.

DAL will cover because I am an Eagles fan.

6:18 AM  
Blogger Schaubs said...

Umm I meant all season not all weekend for the Pats.

6:19 AM  
Blogger StB said...

You may be the TJ Cloutier of online poker. What you win you lose on your sports betting.

9:24 PM  
Blogger Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

TJ goes .500 at craps?

12:01 AM  

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