Monday, July 12, 2010

2010 MLB Over-Unders -- Revisited

OK so with the silliness of The Decision now behind us for another few months until the 2010-2011 NBA season kicks off, and with the major league home run derby set for Monday night this week, I thought now is a good time to revisit my 2010 Major League over-under picks that I posted back on uesday, April 6 of this year. Below is a list of each team in the majors along with my over-under prediction for that team's total wins in 2010, using the Vegas lines as of the start of the 2010 baseball season. For each team I will take a look at how my prediction is faring so far at the halfway point, and how many wins each team is projected to finish this season with.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Under 82.5. With 34 wins so far in 89 games, the D-Backs are on pace for around 62 wins on the season, and should easily come in Under the number as the rest of that division is just too good for the former expansion team.

Atlanta Braves: Over 85.5. Now here is one that I got right (so far) but I did not realize how much, as I figured the Braves to just barely clear the 85-win threshold. Instead they are dominating the NL East so far in 2010, on pace for 96 wins and an easy Over for the year.

Baltimore Orioles: Under 74.5. I knew the Orioles would be bad this year, but 29 wins in 88 games so far? That's on pace for 53 wins and a final record of 53-109. Easy win here for me on the Under.

Boston Red Sox: Over 94.5. I got sucked in and took the Over on this one despite it being a real high number, and the Sox have not quite performed to expectations yet this season. Still, with 51 wins so far, the team is on pace right now for a total of 94 wins, which makes this one wide open in the end despite technically a loser as of this moment in time.

Chicago Cubs: Under 83.5. I was not scared when I took the Under here, but Lou Piniella's team has been worse than I thought nonetheless so far this year. The Cubbies are on pace for 71 wins and another disappointing performance for the fans in Wrigleyville in 2010.

Chicago White Sox: Over 82.5. Here was one that I identified right away as a low number, and so far the team has won 49 out of 87 games, putting them on pace for a 91-win season and easily clearing the Vegas number for 2010.

Cincinnati Reds: Over 79.5. This was one of the fashionable out-of-nowhere picks before the 2010 season, and the Reds have not disappointed, currently being on track for 88 wins and currently leading the Cardinals in the NL Central, a division it looks more and more like the Reds will be claiming this year due to a very favorable second half schedule for Cincy.

Cleveland Indians: Under 74.5. I knew very little about the Indians in the pre-season this year, but I knew enough to take the Under even on a low number like this. The team is currently the second-worst in baseball, on track to nab a total of 62 wins in this year's campaign.

Colorado Rockies: Over 84.5. Here's a team that I also thought had too low of a number, although they started off slow but are coming on strongly of late in the very competitive NL West. The team is currently on pace for 90 wins and should surpass their Vegas number for the second straight season.

Detroit Tigers: Over 80.5. I thought the Tigers would make a good run in the wide-open AL Central, and so far they're holding their own and are on pace for another 90-win season.

Florida Marlins: Under 80.5. This was I thought one of the tougher picks heading into the 2010 season, but I opted to go slightly under since the rest of the NL East seemed to be improving this year. So far the Fish are on track for 77 wins and another close win for me with an Under pick.

Houston Astros: Under 74.5. This was another gut-check pick, with a known horrible team facing a terrible line, but something told me to still go with the Under. So far it is 36 wins in 89 games for the 'Stros, leading to a prediction for just 65 total wins and another easy Under victory.

Kansas City Royals: Under 71. Here is one that I really did not feel comfortable with, but I still went Under despite the Royals having the worst line in baseball heading in to the 2010 season. So far the team has 39 wins, putting them on track for a total of 71 wins, which for now will count as a win-push here at the halfway evaluation point.

Los Angeles Angels: Over 84.5. I had to go with the Over for the Angels who were facing their lowest expectations in about a decade in Vegas's eyes this past Spring. So far the team is right on track, with 47 wins by the halfway point and tracking for a 2010 win total of 84 wins. I'll count it as a loss for now but obviously this is another one that is wide open at the halfway point.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Over 84.5. Like their counterparts the Angels, I thought this number was just a bit too low for a Dodger team with a great manager and coming off two mid-90s seasons in a row. Trouble with the ownership and the breakdown of some of the best players has kept the Dodgers in the race through the halfway point, and so far the team is on track for 90 wins and another victory for me, although the team faces the worst second-half schedule in baseball and would not surprise me by making me sweat this one out in the end.

Milwaukee Brewers: Over 80.5. I took the over here, reasoning that the Brewers would find their way to finishing .500 by season's end. But so far that's not what's happenhing, as the team is currently on pace for just 73 wins and another disappointing season in Milwaukee.

Minnesota Twins: Over 84.5. The Joe Nathan injury shortly before this season began definitely threw a bit of a wrench into things for this team, but in the end I went with the best coach probably in the major leagues and took the Over in what I knew was gonna be a dogfight. So far after a bit of a hiccup heading into the all-start break, the Twinkies have won 46 out of 88 games, putting them on pace for a total of 85 wins and an ever-so-slight victory for my Over pick so far, despite clearly being another one that may come right down to the wire in late September.

New York Mets: Under 81.5. Although I thought a finish around the .500 mark was likely for this year's Mets team, I had to go with my heart and take the Under here. The Mets are going to beat this number, as they currently sit on track for 88 wins and a good shot at their first playoff appearance in 5000 years.

New York Yankees: Over 95.5. Despite the silly-high number, I took the Over with this year's Yankees squad, which has down well despite dealing with some early pitching woes that looked to possibly threaten this pick early on. As of the break the Yanks lead the majors with 56 wins, and are on pace to total 103 wins and fairly easily surpass the Vegas line again in 2010.

Oakland Athletics: Under 79.5. I went with the Under here back in April, expecting a mid-70s finish for a not-very-good As team in 2010, and so far the team has proven me right, heading for a 78-win year.

Philadelphia Phillies: Under 92.5. I picked the Under on the Phillies for the second straight year, and so far my concerns about the rest of the East's improvements are proving true. Still, the team is holding its own despite some annoying injury situations, tracking currently for 87 or 88 wins, but a bit under what it will take to make this number in 2010.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Over 69.5. I hate these picks, as they throw the worst number in the world at you and you end up doing what I did this year, picking a horrible team to go Over just because the number is so dumb. Then am I surprised when the Pirates are on pace for just 55 wins in 2010? Ugh.

San Diego Padres: Under 71.5. Along with the Mariners, here is probably my most spectacular f-up of my over-under picks for 2010, as the Padres have surprised everyone by leading the NL West pretty much wire to wire so far. With 51 wins already by the break, the Fathers are on track to win 94 games and post their best season in a while in San Diego.

San Francisco Giants: Under 82.5. I took the Under here based on my expectation that the Dodgers and Rockies would beat up on the rest of the division, but in the end the Giants are much closer to these teams and are tracking better than I expected. With 47 wins at the break, the team is currently looking at a 86-87 wins in the 2010 campaign and is a few games ahead of the pace to beat its number by season's end.

Seattle Mariners: Over 83.5. I will never understand how the team with Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez could be as bad as the Mariners have been so far in 2010, but despite my solid confidence that this team would finish Over, the Ms are tracking for an anemic 64 wins this year.

St. Louis Cardinals: Over 88.5. I took Over 88 wins for the 2010 Cardinals as I expected this team to run roughshod through its division, but in the end it is the emergence of the Reds that is hampering my Cards pick from being in good shape. With 47 wins at the break, this year's Cardinals are on pace for 86-87 wins, but they will need to pick up a couple of games on that pace to avoid going Under by season's end this year.

Tampa Bay Rays: Under 89.5. I liked the Rays for mid-80s in wins this season, but I had to take the Under since to go over would require this young team to post 90 wins in the division of the Yankees and the improved Red Sox. Instead, the Rays have been at or near the best team in baseball all season long, and are currently on pace to win 99 games and easily beat the Vegas line for the year.

Texas Rangers: Over 84.5. I immediately picked the Rangers as an Over candidate as I find this team to be consistently underrated by the Vegas sharps in season over-unders these past several years. Once again the team is looking solid -- on pace currently for 92 wins -- and with the trade for Cliff Lee last week, this one should be an easy lock for Over in 2010.

Toronto Blue Jays: Under 70.5. I got the Jays pretty much wrong also, although the team has been faltering of late and may well end up giving this line a run for its money. As of right now, though, the Jays are still on pace for 80 wins and way ahead of the 71 they will need to make the Over on the season.

Washington Nationals: Under 70.5. Despite all the buzz and everybody picking the Nats as on Over this year, I went with the Under on the thinking that the NL East would be better and they would have a hard time improving 14 games over their 2009 total win performance. So far at the break here in 2010, the Nats have 39 wins in 89 games, on track for 71 wins. So this one will count as a loss for now, but it's another that is going to come right down to the wire in my view.

So, after picking exactly 15 overs and 15 unders heading into the 2010 MLB season, here at the halfway point I am looking decent once again. By my count I currently win on 17 of my picks and lose on 13 of them, which is right around where I ended last season as well as I recall. But right, I count just two teams I am currently winning (Royals and Twins) which are close enough to realistically move to losses by season's end. Meanwhile, there are five teams I am currently losing but which I expect to be real close at the end -- Boston, Florida, the Angels, St. Louis and the Nats. If you figure I can pick up one or two net winners among those 7 wide open chases, then I'll be looking at another solid year of MLB over-unders here in 2010.

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Blogger OhCaptain said...

Win Twins!

7:49 PM  

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