Friday, November 12, 2010

NFL -- Week 10 Picks

As I mentioned earlier in the week, through Week 9 of the 2010 NFL season, my weekly game picks against the spread sit at an uninspiring 12-13-2. While this certainly could be worse in the wild and wacky NFL, I'm definitely looking to improve these figures over the second half of the season, although in all honesty the second half of 2009 is where my picks really seemed to drop off, so I'm going to need to do much better in this year's second half or else the season is going to be a complete and total disaster in terms of my picks. Still, I'm going to stick with the recent policy of not forcing myself to pick any certain number of games in any given week as I do think that will help me over time to focus my predictions on the games I generally feel the most confident about. Just like last week's Giants-at-Seattle game. Heh heh.

OK so here are my picks for Week 10 of the NFL season:

1. Miami Dolphins +2 vs. Tennessee Titans. In a week chock full of tough games, I really like this pick as I think the better team is getting points, and playing at home to boot. It looks like the Fins will be starting Chad "All He Does Is Win" Pennington at qb this weekend for the first time all season, and the Dolphins are simply not going to 0-8 at home on the year. I know the Titans just added Randy Moss over the past week after the Vikings cut him after Week 8, but I just can't pass up the extra two points for the home team who I would have picked to win this game in any event.

2. Houston Texans +1 at Jacksonville Jaguars. This is a matchup of 4-4 teams, but I've made no bones here about the fact that I think the Texans are a good team, and the Jags are not, overall this season. This is a game where the Texans will find a way to win if they are actually going to try to make a playoff push in 2010. When I look at this objectively, I think the Texans throw the ball better than the Jaguars behind Matt Schaub, and Arian Foster and his nine touchdowns runs the ball better than Maurice Jones-Drew and his one touchdown scamper this season as well. Once again this is a game where I would probably take the Texans as a pickem, but with the added bonus of a push if the Jags win by one point, the value seems definitely tilted a bit on the Texans' side here in my book.

3. St. Louis Rams +6 at San Francisco 49ers. I don't even understand this line, which can often be a harbinger of one of those too-good-to-be-true lines that I love to get burned on, but with the 4-4 and first-place Rams heading to San Fran to play Mike Singletary and his no-math skills, I am surprised this is more than a pickem as it is. The chances of the 49ers scoring many points against the quietly very solid Rams' defense in this game are I think low to begin with, and the NFC West's best offense in the Rams should be able to move the ball against the hapless 49ers defense. Mike Singletary has lost all control of this team, he is a lame duck fool on the sidelines, and his team has got nothing to play for throughout the balance of this season. I'll take the Rams plus a touchdown and do so quickly.

While I do think the Giants' 14-point line at home against the Cowboys in Jason Garrett's first game as head coach is too high, I think even I might have to stay away from that game despite knowing that the Giants have consistently disappointed in games like this during the Tom Coughlin era. I can't believe the Eagles are favored by 3 at the Redskins in Monday night's game, but I do suspect the Eagles will win so I want to stay away from that one as well. And while I do think the Bills will nab their first win of the season at home this weekend against the Lions and their backup quarterback, having to lay three points to pick the only 0-8 team in the NFL is just a personal insult, and I won't do it. So there's your three official picks this week (bank it!), and best of luck to anyone playing this weekend's NFL games.

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Blogger Bayne_S said...

Mice read on the don't touch Giants v Cowboys

1:15 PM  
Blogger Bayne_S said...

or Nice read

1:16 PM  
Blogger Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

Thanks (I'm sure mice read this blog too). Anyone who knows the first thing about the NFL over the past several years knows that Coughlin's teams always get overrated early and then have typically ended up completely collapsing at the end of the season. I'm not predicting a total collapse for this Giants team, but it was and is obvious that they are not as good as the hype had been over the past few weeks. I was just one week too early in Week 9 in predicting the team's inevitable and obvious horrible performance coming.

8:55 PM  

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