Friday, October 22, 2010

NFL -- Week 8 Picks

Well, since there is nothing going on out there in the world of baseball to focus on right now, I thought I would turn my thoughts to a little bit about football, and in particular what is shaping up to be a fabulous NFL schedule for Week 7 this coming weekend. Last week -- actually, two weeks ago I guess -- I suffered my worst week of the season picking games, going 1-4 and dropping my overall season record on the games I have picked to a dismal 8-11-1. Assuming you're paying the standard 10% vig on all losses, that is an overall loss so far of just over 4 units over 20 units bet, which is not going to hack it by a long shot. Then last week I guess I flat-out forgot to pick the games for Week 6, which may or may not be a good thing, but I can tell you right now which games I would have picked last week from the short amount of time I did spend looking at the games in advance of last weekend: I would have taken the Raiders +6.5 against the 49ers (and lost, as the Raiders lost by 8 points), the Falcons +2.5 against the Eagles (and lost since the Eagles blew out), the Vikings -2.5 vs the Cowboys (and won), and the easiest game by far of the weekend, the Titans -3 against the horribad Jaguars (and won). So it would likely have been another .500 or so weekend for me even if I had gotten the picks up in time, but I am ok skipping last week just like I did with Week 1 and just moving it on from here with the season record starting at 8-11-1.

So, for Week 7, here are my picks in no particular order as always, which I am going to try to start focusing on only picking the games I feel most comfortable with, as opposed to forcing myself to pick exactly five games on a weekly basis, which clearly is not working for me so far or showing any improvement over two years of posting my picks for all to see:

1. Kansas City Chiefs (pick'em) over Jacksonville Jaguars. I think KC is far better than people thought heading into this season, they are coming off a tough loss on the road at Houston last week and will be hungry to get back into the win column, and they are at home at their new stadium against a team that I think it not nearly as good as its 3-3 record would indicate. And I don't even have to give any points to pick the clearly superior team in a heads-up match at home. Easy pick right there.

2. Miami Dolphins +3 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers. Here is another underrated team in the Dolphins playing a very good Steelers team, but facing them at home in Miami, a place where the Dolphins have yet to record a win in this season. I'm not sure the Fins are going to win this game outright, but this team has a way of quietly but effectively befuddling their opponents, and something tells me the 3 point spread here will cover the difference if the Steelers manage to squeak this one out.

3. Carolina Panthers +3 vs. San Francisco 49ers. I tried to pick the Panthers to win their first home game of the season against the Bears a couple of weeks back but my timing was not quite right with that one. Nonetheless, I'm back at it again today picking Carolina in another home game, this time against an even worse team in the 49ers. With the three extra points coming Carolina's way, I just can't pass up the value here, especially since I've thrown in the towel officially on 49ers coach Mike Singletary after I watched him pull Alex Smith aside in the team's Week 5 game and bitch his quarterback out for making a risky throw in a game that he pointed directly to the scoreboard to show Smith was, in Singletary's clear words from reading his lips, scored at "20-14". The only problem was, the real score was 24-10 at the time. When your head coach doesn't even know basic two-digit numerals, it's time for me to start picking against you, end of story.

4. Green Bay Packers -3 vs. Minnesota Vikings. This is a bit of a gamble in that the Vikings will have had another full week to better integrate Randy Moss into their passing game, and given how much Brett Favre got up for the games against his former team back in 2009, but with all the focus on Favre and his transgressions this week, his meeting with the commissioner and the endless media questions about why he is not denying this story with the Jen Sterger business if it isn't true, something tells me that the Pack will bounce back this week at home in a huge game to get their season turned around right. I would rather this be a pickem than give three points to the Vikes, but I still think this is a good pick for a team that has not looked as good as they should over the past couple of games in Green Bay.

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Blogger Memphis MOJO said...

I can see why you'd like KC at a pick, but I believe they are 9 point favorites.

3:50 AM  
Blogger PJS JR. said...

They are a pick on most sites, because the game isn't even being offered, because of the JAC QB situation. On the one site I can find, KC -9 is the line. I still go with KC on this one though...

4:00 AM  
Blogger Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

Did not realize that's why they listed this as a pickem. At 9 points the value in the pick is largely gone imo.

6:38 AM  
Blogger Tilt said...

Lol I read this and saw you picked KC at pick'em. I was going to ask where did you get that line and I want to sign up. Uggghhhh Phillies, I guess they probably sill have a 20 percent chance of winning 3 straight. I can't believe this giants team is dominating the Phillies, a little luck here and there goes a long way.

7:18 AM  

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