Thursday, November 04, 2010

NFL -- Week 9 Picks

So last week was another round of Thursday picks, and another week where I did not force myself to find five games if I didn't see five that I liked, and it was another good week for me. I picked three road dogs, two of which won outright in Tampa Bay and Jacksonville, and one of which lost in the Redskins despite sticking with the Lions until Mike Shanahan's brilliant benching of Donovan McNabb in the final minutes and then his replacement promptly fumbling the very first snap for a touchdown recovery and game over. So it was 2-1 in another week where I was basically right on with my Thursday intuitions of how the games would go, lifting my season record back over the .500 mark to 12-11-1, and so without further adieu here is more of Gut Feeling Thursday:

1. Buffalo Bills +3 vs. Chicago Bears. Yeah, Buffalo sucks. But they're not gonna go 0-8 at home this year either, and just like I've caught lightning in a bottle with a couple of other bad teams at home this season, I think this could be Buffalo's week. Shawne Merriman is a loser, but the team's offense has played noticeably better under Fitzpatrick at quarterback, and if there's one thing I've noticed about this Bills team under Cowboys reject Chan Gailey plays hard, every single week. The Bears are ripe for the taking, their offensive line is the worst in football, and they're heading on the road to a very difficult place to play. With the 3 points to boot, I like the Bills to put up a good fight and at least make this one close.

2. Houston Texans +3 vs. San Diego Chargers. This is one of those lines that almost seems to good to be true. The 3-5 Chargers are favored by 3 points on the road at the 4-3 Texans, despite San Diego being 0-4 on the road this season so far and despite Houston being a pretty decent team, in particular on offense. Try as I might to like the Chargers in this one, I just can't get over the fact that they have just about the literal worst head coach in the NFL today, they are a completely different team on the road than they are at home, and I really can't get over the fact Houston's potent running game behind Arian Foster will help to keep that busting Chargers offense off the field as much as they would like to be out there on Sunday. Just like my first pick, not sure I take this game as a pick'em, but the value is clear when you give the Texans a field goal to boot as well.

3. Seattle Seahawks +7 vs New York Giants. Man does this one seem like a slam-dunk. The Giants are probably the NFL's most overrated team at the moment, with everyone suddenly pegging the most consistently talented and yet inconsistent team over the past few seasons as the favorite in the NFC after last weekend's action, and this is painfully obvious in the line for this game, which is about as dumb of a line as you're going to find out there. Seattle is a 4-3 team -- this isn't the Panthers or the 49ers here -- and even though I don't think they are a great team by any means, the fact remains that the Giants have to fly clear across the country for this game, and the game is buried here in between consecutive outings against the divisional rival Dallas Cowboys. The Giants could and should beat Pete Carrol's Seahawks this weekend, but with all those factors to be giving a full touchdown as well is just an embarrassment. I take the 'Hawks and the points on this one.

In the past I would have stretched here and given you probably the Colts +3 at Philly and the Bengals +5 vs the Steelers on Monday night, but those three up there are the games I like the best so I'm just going to stick with those three games as my official picks of the week. Best of luck to everyone's teams out there and to everyone who is playing these games like I am.

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Blogger Dave said...

The Bills and Bears are playing in Toronto. Lots of people are making the trip from Chicago so I would expect the usual Buffalo home field advantage to be diminished quite a bit.

8:33 PM  
Blogger Memphis MOJO said...

Mike Shanahan's brilliant benching of Donovan McNabb in the final minutes and then his replacement promptly fumbling the very first snap for a touchdown

There are lots of reasons that Shanahan's move is dumb, but one is that the guy he brought in isn't even warmed up (as evidenced by his fumble).

9:55 PM  
Blogger Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

Not only not warmed up for this one game, but the guy hasn't taken live snaps in more than a year. That was a crazy move by Shanny, and he obviously looks like a complete ass given what happened as soon as Grossman got in there.

11:20 PM  
Blogger GnightMoon said...

Agree with all these picks and may bet the latter two. I too was pretty shocked to see that Texans line at +3, especially with Antonio Gates out.

Looks like Matt Hasselbeck is out with a concussion and Charlie Whitehurst in for the Seahawks. I'd expect that line to move to even more than a TD now. Hopefully your money isn't in on that one yet.

Like Dave said that Bills game is closer to neutral than home, but I still think Buffalo has a good shot to keep it within a field goal.

4:38 AM  
Blogger Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

Yeah, the truth is that when I made the Seattle pick this morning, I first confirmed on Yahoo! Sports that Hass expected to play on Sunday. Three hours after I post the pick, Hass is out and Charlie Whitehurst is in. I do not think I would have picked this game with that knowledge up front.

All that said, I took the day to think it over and Ima stick with the pick. If the line moves up by Friday I will certainly take the additional points but I think it's a terrible line in favor of a very overrated team.

8:03 AM  
Blogger DuggleBogey said...

LOL. Just admit you hate the Giants for some reason and can't make objective picks.

10:16 AM  

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