Thursday, December 20, 2007

Another Mookie Exit, and the BBTwo ToC Fearsome Foursome

So I guess a little bit of blog drama helped to clear LJ's head as it helped to clear my own a little bit, as LJ pushed the pedal to the metal and won the Mookie this week. So you can add LJ to the long and ever-growing list of players who have won the Mookie while I still have not. Although I lasted pretty far this week, busting I think in 20th place out of 69 runners, like I said a few weeks ago I really didn't play well at all in the tournament. Basically every single chip I won in this tournament came from one of two things. First, I was dealt pocket Aces not once but twice, my usual quota for a whole year of Mookie's, and on top of that, I only got sucked out on allin preflop by a lower pocket pair one of those two times! Can't complain about that! Obviously. And the only other source of chips for me on the night were 14 open-steals of Speaker's big blind from my small blind. 14 out of 14 times, no raise, no call from Joe. Early on when I first was seated at this table, those steals did not amount to much, but 90 minutes later by the middle stages of the event that was the only thing keeping me going. It became a joke for everyone at the table after a while, because literally every single time the action folded to me in the small blind -- with zero exceptions -- I raised, and every single time Joe folded, despite knowing what a stealy bitch I am and despite him sitting on a large stack basically all through the tournament thanks to his winning I think 85 races in a row to start.

Eventually though all the stealing would catch up with me as everyone including myself and Joe knew it would, as I raised allin with my shortish stack from early position at a shorthanded table with AJ, and Speaker instacalled with what turned out to be 55. Lucky for him none of the three players still to act behind him got involved in the pot, and he flopped a set (sound familiar?) to send me packing. I will admit to not understanding the logic of letting me steal with abandon all through the night without ever taking a stand even one time but then instacalling for a full quarter of his stack with a small pocket pair with three players still to act and knowing you can't be ahead by more than 1%, but in the end the guy was a race-winning machine on the night, and like I said, I didn't play well at all, even misplaying my two AA hands for the most part so I got nothing to complain about. And at least Joe got the memo about the instacalling, because he got in there so quick with his 55 after letting me raise with abandon all night that you just had to know he was going to win by the end no matter what cards fell on the flop or turn. I was happy for Joe and thought for sure he was going to take the whole thing down with the way he was winning in races through more than 2/3 of the tournament, but it looks like LJ made a nice run at the end and busted out with I think the largest tournament she has ever won, other than one 90-person sng. Don't quote me on that last one but, despite a number of huge cashes in mtts, I don't specifically recall her winning outright an "mtt" tournament with 70 or more players in it before.

So tonight is the big BBTwo Aussie Millions Tournament of Champions, as well as the BBTwo Tournament Leaderboard Freeroll for the top 50 point scorers during the 27 tournaments comprising the BBTwo. Sadly yours truly will not be participating in either tournament, but I played so bad in the BBTwo tournaments that any end-of-series tournament that includes me would be a joke and a half. Nonetheless, I am really excited for tonight, in particular for the ToC, because the winner of the ToC will walk away this evening with an 18k prize package for two to the Aussie Millions nlh tournament in January. It's a huge prize and there will be 27 total runners vying for it in the winner take all event scheduled for this evening at 10pm ET. 25 of those players won their way in to the ToC via emerging victorious from blonkamewnt minefields, with XxMagiciaNxX and jeciimd each winning two seats during the tournament series, making 25 winner entrants, plus our two write-in entry winners in Julius Goat and Fuel55.

The total ToC field includes (I am trying to include the right link for everyone's blog I have knowledge of. I guarantee I screw up or leave out at least one of these):


Now I've already seen a couple of interesting odds posts on the ToC coming up on Thursday evening, and I'm not about right now to sit down and make a comment on everyone on the list above, including the few people I think are the worst poker players on the list. Although that would be enjoyable and you all probably deserve that, I guess I have insulted people enough this week and don't feel like right now is the right time for all that. And plus, and I've written about this before, I think truly that any individual on the list could win it. Frankly I think mostly every blonkament in the series has been dictated by probably more than 90% luck -- in all its forms as I've discussed here previously -- and less than 10% skill. Maybe that's been true of every blonkament, although the same people seem to win a whole lot more of the blonkaments than others so I don't think I really feel that blonkaments in general are 90% luck-based. But I definitely do think that about the BBTwo tournaments. Frankly I thought the same thing about the first BBT, where a couple of players seemed to fare far better in things completely beyond their control than everyone else in the field over the span of 39 poker tournaments, but I definitely feel the same way about the BBTwo.

So, I've been struggling with the best way to make predictions for who will win the ToC. I don't want to just make a comment about everyone like some other people have, because mainly that's been done already and I think I would not add much value to anything. And I'm not going to post odds on everyone either, it's just too silly for a 27-person sng where basically I expect luck to play a very significant factor. That said, I've thought it over and I'm going to go back to where this whole thing started with me, when I first made a prediction of four players from whom I believed the eventual winner would emerge. The very first time I did this, I nailed it with Lucko going on to win the Riverchasers tournament that very evening. So today I thought I would do it again.

So, without further adieu, in no particular order here is my fearsome foursome of players for tonight's BBTwo Aussie Millions Tournament of Champions, one of whom I believe will win the tournament outright, along with some explanation of what went into my decision:

1. Astin
2. cmitch
3. cracknaces
4. twoblackaces

There it is. There are obviously a lot of great players I did not include on the list, and again to be clear this is purely for fun as I am quite sure that the cards and not the skill will play the most significant role in how this all shakes out. But Astin is without a doubt the luckiest player I know in our group, over the longest period of time, and frankly I think he is pretty skilled as well at nlh despite what others may or may not think. And the other three guys on my list are pretty much all great poker tournament players, with demonstrated successes in both small- and big-field tournaments. Twoblackaces has been on a tear in the blonkaments recently, and I've played sngs with him as well so I know he knows his way around a small field. Chad I think goes without saying, he is poker dominant. cmitch is one of the best poker players in our group, be it cash or tournament. So that's my foursome.

I thought I would mention, I'm skipping jeciimd, who not only completely obliterated the field in the BBTwo but who also finished I think 3rd overall in BBT1, because I just don't think he has a lot of high-pressure tournament experience and I don't believe he plays a lot of smaller-field sng type of tournaments. I know kaja was also up there but again I haven't quite seen the small-field tournament wins out of him for the most part, even though both of these guys are obviously great players and running very well right now. If Iggy and Daddy played more tournaments in general I would be more apt to go with them, and I get the feeling that Lucko is maybe a bit cold lately, though I base that on nothing other than lack of big tournament finishes posted on his blog of late and not on any personal knowledge. Lucko's friends, who I'm sure are all great players, I just don't know enough about, although I can only assume that their lack of mega experience playing against most of the players in this field can only hurt them somewhat in the ToC. I thought of picking emptyman because I think he is a good dark horse as well for this thing, but I guess I just haven't quite seen the nlh tournament victories coming from him as from some of the other guys in this field. In the end, any of the people I've mentioned above, and as I've said really any of the people in the entire field, can clearly win this thing tonight, and I'm looking forward to seeing the action live this evening, but I'll go with Astin, cmitch, KOD and twoblackaces to round out my fearsome foursome of horseys.

Gooooooo horseeeeeeyyyyyyyys! ToC, tonight 10pm ET on full tilt!

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Blogger Chad C said...

ASTIN IS GOING TO WIN!!! Why do all you people keep posting odds? This thing is over before it even started. I am only showing up so I can get him my chips faster and not slow up the process.......

PS: You got very nice real fast, its pretty sweet. I might squirt a little if I read this again......

3:01 AM  
Blogger Alan aka RecessRampage said...

Man... when there are no rants, I don't even know what to say in the comments...

RecessRampage was here.

3:07 AM  
Blogger Iak said...

goddammit...two beat me to it.


but yeah having looked into the abyss that is Astin and run screaming gigli, I agree wholeheartedly.

3:21 AM  
Blogger cmitch said...

I'm sure to gigli now.

BTW - did you see that someone has started a blog that is the cliff notes of your daily posts - weird?

3:27 AM  
Blogger Fuel55 said...

Fuel was here too.

3:59 AM  
Blogger emptyman said...

The noncommmittal mention without any predictions. Awwww yeah, exactly where I wanna be. I'll take the dark horse over the favorite every time.

Luck in a 3-table SNG? How is that even possible? Doesn't the best player win 95% of those?

Please please please PLEASE let me be AstinBayned tonight.

For the benefit of readers --

Hoy no think I win. I lucky.

5:19 AM  
Blogger lj said...

i predict you'll take one down in '08 for sure.

7:40 AM  
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