Tuesday, December 04, 2007

MATH Recap, Bullshit NFL and Suited Connectors Hand Continued

59 runners came out last night for the 6-max nlh MATH, making for a $1416 prize pool and an aggressive format that encourages people to make some moves. As a result, people played it fast, which I love, and the action was fast and furious from the getgo. Personally, I got a bit short early trying to make some moves with my usual utter shit for cards. In an hour of play, I never got one premium hand, never a pair above 88 and never an Ace higher than A9. Finally I found AK near the end of the first hour of the tournament, and I moved allin on a raggy flop against Mike Maloney who had called all three times I had raised at that new table with his big stack. Of course he flipped up AA and IGH early. Nnice, thank you very much fuck tilt poker.

Here are your cashers for this week's MATH tournament:

8. $49.56 riggstad
7. $49.56 leftylu
6. $77.88 jeciimd
5. $113.28 mookie
4. $155.76 mike maloney
3. $205.32 numbbono
2. $297.36 columbo
1. $467.28 whiskigrl

And here is the updated MATH moneyboard for 2007, including the results of this week's tournament:

1. Columbo $1823
2. cmitch $1703
3. Bayne_s $1400
4. Hoyazo $1162
5. RaisingCayne $1110
6. Surflexus $1107
7. Daddy $999
8. Kajagugu $806
9. Fuel55 $802
10. Astin $79
11. Pirate Wes $792
12. VinNay $775
13. Tripjax $759
14. Numbbono $754
15. Iggy $745
16. Gary Cox $734
17. Blinders $720
18. NewinNov $677
19. Lucko21 $665
20. LJ $652
21. Waffles $650
22. IslandBum1 $642
23. XxMagiciaNxX $630
23. JJ $630
25. Mike_Maloney $612
26. Jamyhawk $576
27. Buddydank $553
28. swimmom95 $545
29. riggstad $537
30. Chad $537
31. ScottMc $532
32. Emptyman $513
33. Byron $510
34. Julius Goat $507
35. bartonf $492
35. mtnrider81 $492
37. PokerBrian322 $490
38. wormmsu $475
39. scots_chris $474
40. whiskigrl $467
41. jeciimd $460
42. RecessRampage $434
43. Otis $429
44. twoblackaces $426
45. leftylu $424
46. Miami Don $402
47. Zeem $389
48. Joe Speaker $384
49. Jordan $382
50. cardgrrl $371
50. lightning36 $371
52. ChapelncHill $353
53. OMGitsPokerFool $324
54. buckhoya $312
54. oossuuu754 $312
56. Mookie $304
57. Wigginx $288
58. Fishy McDonk $277
59. actyper $276
60. Irongirl $252
60. Manik79 $252
62. Wippy1313 $248
63. Easycure $244
64. Garthmeister $216
64. wwonka69 $216
66. Omega_man_99 $210
67. katiemother $209
68. Pushmonkey72 $208
69. Thepokergrind $198
70. StatikKling $180
71. 23Skidoo $176
72. Santa Clauss $170
73. jimdniacc $166
74. Iakaris $162
74. Smokkee $162
76. cemfredmd $156
77. lester000 $147
78. Heffmike $145
79. Julkeus $144
80. brdweb $143
81. DDionysus $137
82. Patchmaster $135
83. InstantTragedy $129
84. NinaW $120
85. UnTiltable $118
86. Fluxer $110
87. -o-LuckTruck-o- $103
88. hoops15mt $95
89. Gracie $94
90. Scurvydog $94
91. Shag0103 $84
92. mattazuma $82
92. crazdgamer $82
94. PhinCity $80
95. Presidentdave $79
96. maf212 $78
97. evy35 $72
98. Alceste $71
98. dbirider $71
100. kevin-with-AK $66
101. Rake Feeder $53

So congratulations out to this week's winner, whiskigrl, whose name I like but I don't unfortunately know anything about himher, as well as to Columbo who not only finished second in this week's MATH tournament but in doing so also regained the overall lead on the 2007 MATH moneyboard from cmitch who had busted out of nowhere to the top spot on the moneyboard with his own big win last week.

Now, before I forget, let me just say for the record that the Patriots are the gheyest undefeated team in the history of the NFL. First the cheating, which I never wrote about but my god!! And this isn't like just a little cheating, or just allegations of cheating. They cheated, as a matter of fact, and in fact they've been doing it for several years. It's so bad that hey had received written warnings from the NFL as recently as early this very season about not using video technology to steal the opposing teams' signs and playcalls. But they kept on cheating, and they got busted doing it earlier this year. They've factually used the other team's signs all through three superbowls in four years, and they used it this year as well on their way to this refuckulous undefeated season. Somehow that shit just gets overlooked by many people because it's obvious how awesome this Patriots team is. But who knows how awesome they would be if they hadn't been outright cheating for the better part of the past decade. I don't know. And if you think you do, you're living in a dream world.

Then in the Eagles game last week, the Patriots were awarded a touchdown in the final minute of the first half on an 18-yard reception or so that on replay was indisputably not a catch. The receiver's second foot landed a good three or four feet out of bounds, and even his first foot did not really appear to necessarily be in the field of play when the catch was made. And yet, nothing Andy Reid could do could cause the referees to review that call, because in the final two minutes of the half, these reviews can only be initiated by the referees. Hmmmmmm. Patriots go on to win that game by how many points? 3. Seems like that one might've had a measurable impact on the winner of that game, huh? And like I said above, it was 100% plain and simple the fault of the referees, and sadly there is no one else in the world you can blame for that kind of incompetency among the officiating on the field.

Now, if you saw the Patriots - Ravens game on Monday night this week -- and I mean really watched it, the entire thing -- then you know that the referees gave this game to the Pats. They gave it to them. They insisted that the Pats win. I personally watched the Ravens win this game not once but twice in the last few minutes alone. Two fourth downs, two recockulous penalties called to extend the final drive once the game was already over. With phucking 50-some seconds left and on 4th and 5, the Pats threw to the end zone and lost. The pass was tipped and went out of bounds, and the game was over. The perfect season finished. Finito. No chance. And then the flag comes out, and what's the call? Holding! Riiiiiiiight. The easiest call to make on any play in any sport. Suuuuuuuure there was holding guys, suuuuuuuuure. We all believe you now after seeing what happened last week against the Eagles and after watching the maybe 7 or 8 recockulous calls all go the Patriots' way in this Ravens game. So great Mr. Roger Gooddell, and great for you, NFL, you have managed to manufacture an undefeated team for the first time since the Dolphins in the '70s. I hope you get whatever you're hoping to get from that silliness. Six months ago, before this redonkulous business with the NBA referees fixing games, I might have told you it's impossible that the fix is in. Having watched a number of Patriots games this season, in particular the last two in their entirety, I know the fix is in. Fuck you, NFL, for making me stay up all night to watch a game that was already predetermined from the beginning who would win. Right now, the NFL = the full tilt rng server. Fuck you, fuck you both.

Getting back quickly to the hand I was profiling yesterday, here is where we left off with the action:



I enjoyed the comments, and it seems the majority of the readers suggested just pushing my last 7774 chips into the 4200-chip pot. A few of the commenters advocated checking, and a few others wanted to bet smaller. But one theme was the same throughout all of them I think -- I wanted to get it allin in this spot, with no one yet showing any strength on this flop. In the end after considering my options, I opted for the smaller bet. With bottom two pairs on a high-card board, and given that my stack was shortish at the time, I wanted to do the thing that I felt had the most chance of getting someone else's stack into the middle with me at this point, and then take my chances with what is ultimately a very scary board and very vulnerable holding for me. But I liked the arguments made by The King, Smokkee and a few others in yesterday's comments, and in the end I felt a smallish bet was perhaps better designed to get someone to either call me with a worse hand, or better yet move in with just top pair, maybe a KQ or AQ holding given the action so far:




Then a strange thing happened. The player to my immediate left, who had yet to act on the flop, minraised my 2600-chip bet to 5200 chips. As I tried to take in what that move probably meant, the first player, who had checked on the flop ahead of me, suddenly called the 5200-chip minraise from the player to my left. This left the situation now to me once again:



Now what? How do those bottom two pairs look at this point in the hand? Remember, the player to my right had open-minraised from utg+2 preflop, I called and the player to my left called as well, with everyone else folding before the flop after the minraise. Now the preflop minraiser on my right checked, I bet 2600, the player to my left minraised that bet, and the preflop minraiser then check-called the flop minraise from the guy on my left. WTF does all this mean? And more importantly, do I fold, call or reraise allin in this spot with my bottom two pairs? As you can see from the graphic above, I still have about 5200 chips left in my stack, which is not good at this point in the tournament, but it's not like it's totally nothing. What is the right play here?

Let me know your comments, and I will conclude the hand in Wednesday's post, along with some general whining about the fact that I won't be out in Vegas this week partying it up with the donkeyz.

Labels: , , ,

23 Comments:

Blogger Astin said...

The minraise and all that calling preflop confuses things. Now another minraise and calling.

I'd put the guy on your right on AA or KK (I'd think AK would push or fold here). On your left is AQ, KQ or KJ.

Or I'm completely wrong and you're looking at J8 and QQ and are about to go all tilty. Or someone's drawing with a J.

You obviously can't call, unless you're praying for a T or 9. I can't see folding two pair here for that pot. Nope, methinks you must push here. At least one of them will call, and I think both will.

After all, you didn't push because you wanted their stacks. You've got them now.

2:09 AM  
Blogger columbo (at eifco dot org) said...

ok, this is ME sitting in your seat so your mileage may vary...

If my Q<.5 and I hit a flop, it a lognshot that I am going away.

It is likely that I am against AJ and AQ here and I am getting my money in against TPTK and a EOSD.

I figure that if I push now, they both call. If I push on the turn, just one calls. Even knowing that, I push now.

The HOPE (yeah, I admit it) that I could triple up here is just oo great to pass up.

2:42 AM  
Blogger bayne_s said...

one of them is playing the donkey and you have 4 outs.

LJ shoves into made straights and prays but you should fold.

2:44 AM  
Blogger Julius_Goat said...

What Astin said. You need the chips, so push. If it's a cooler, it's a cooler.

Thing is, the 28K is donktastic enough that the min raiser or caller might not actually realize how much strength a min raise or smooth call of min re-raise represents.

Hell, you could be up against AQ and AK, or 88 and 66.

Even if you are up agains the straight or a set of Queens, you have outs and about 25% to win. Fold and you have an M of 5 and you already know there is no fold equity.

Set of 9s or 10s is just not something you need to worry about. This is your spot.

2:46 AM  
Blogger Julius_Goat said...

Sorry, that is of course 16% to win if you are behind.

Did I mention I am a donkey?

2:47 AM  
Blogger Julius_Goat said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

2:47 AM  
Blogger Julius_Goat said...

After one final review, you must fold.

The caller has K2 of hearts for the backdoor flush. You're crushed.

Obv.

2:52 AM  
Blogger KajaPoker said...

fold. rant. wait for a spot to jam later. one of these min-raising fools has KJ and you are near dead.

3:12 AM  
Blogger Chad C said...

If you are still one double away from average I fold here. Clearly the mini raise either means set, QT, or KJ. The smooth call is the absolute worst part of the whole hand. He either has the stone cold nuts or hes a blogger type and has AJ. You are clearly dead here. Fold, double somewhere else, take it from there.

3:34 AM  
Blogger PokerFool said...

They guy on your right has AA or KK.

The guy on your left has QJ, JT, or KJ (maybe QT).

I don't have pokerstove here at work, but throw those ranges in, and see what kind of equity T9 has there.

3:40 AM  
Blogger pokerpeaker said...

Some may think I'm weak/tight, but...

I fold.

You're beat. If they shoved I'd reconsider, but the min raise says "please, please, please call me," and then the other guy just calls? If that doesn't say strength I don't know what does. That says strength a lot more than pushes, in my mind. Yes, it's possible the one guy who just called has a draw, but the min raise? Ouch. And it's a scary board.

One thing that always bothers me is people advocating a push "because you have to go with the hand."
Well, that's bad poker. I wanted to get all my chips in the middle until I was given additional information. As Harrington says, "Poker is a game of information." And given the information here, I believe you're beat, and why would you shove into a hand that beats you?

Your M still gives you enough to wait for another starting hand and push with it, and then if you double you're in good shape. Yes, this sucks, and yes, you may not have another chance, but to me it's better to have a chance than to just commit suicide.

Maybe I'm wrong here, but my gut says fold.

3:56 AM  
Blogger emptyman said...

Can't just call, unlikely we're ahead which means 4 outs. We called hoping to hit the flop hard, but bottom two on QT9 against 2 strong hands is not what we were looking for.

I'll take Shoving ATC Next Hand for 5200, Alex.

This is the other reason I like the smaller bet -- it gets us all in if we choose but leaves us the back door.

While our read does suggest AA and AQ, KQ, it's the only way we can be ahead here. Pretty optimistic.

I'm guessing AA/KK on our right and QJs on our left.

3:57 AM  
Blogger Mondogarage said...

This is pretty much the situation I would have wanted to avoid. Not the min-raise, but having it go 3-handed to the turn.

If you shove now, you're not getting rid of anyone at this point. If you call, you're a fish, and a pot-committed one, at that. I'm inclined to think the player on your right has an overpair, but the player on your left either has a set, QT, or perhaps QJ.

Of course, those options probably mean that even if you shoved, both of them come with you, but you're putting the pressure on them, and vice versa.

I think you have to shove here, unless, as Chad says, you are really still one double from average stack. But with your M that low, I suspect that's not the case at this point, so I shove, close my eyes, and prepare to tilt like a mofo.

(But then, I got two outed on the river to busto from FTP tourneys FOUR fuckin' times last night, and clearly am not to be trusted.)

4:01 AM  
Blogger Wwonka said...

The refs gave the patriots the game ehh? How about finally calling the game correctly? Baltimore had been mugging the recievers all night and had been getting away with it.

They are not allowed to touch the reciever after 5 yards. So when the guy gets dragged down in the end zone that would be holding.

You also brought up the cheating.
They were caught and Punished what more should happen to them? should they be kicked out of the NFL?

I will say the Patriots were very lucky to win. They should have lost that game. But Baltimore also could have ended the game with a first down and couldn't get it on 2 consecutive drives.

Plus that dude that melted down and threw the flag into the stands????

thats why the Ravens are 4-7.
and the Patriots are 12-0
they made the plays when they needed to.

Stop being a hater.
GO PATRIOTS

4:59 AM  
Blogger Francase said...

Right: A-Q, thinking he has a monster with TPTK.

Left: JacKing Off, called both of you preflop (having you both easily covered) and just flopped the straight, and is hoping one or both of you pop all your chips back in.

Fold and push later.

5:52 AM  
Blogger smokkee said...

haha..you shoulda bet less and it would be easier to get away from.

this is too big of a pot now and you've committed over a 3rd of your stack. i probably push/pray at this point.

the Pats had alot of calls go their way. but, the Ravens did everything to keep them in it at the end of the game (e.g. Boller int, burning their last timeout on D and the multiple penalties at the end of the Patsys final TD. the hail mary coming up short by 2yds was classic.)

6:48 AM  
Blogger Carrie & Crew said...

OK, I'm home. Here is some PokerStove Numbers.

Player 0: AA, KK
Player 2: KJ, QJ, QT, JT


Board: Tc 9h Qd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 14.493% 13.66% 00.83% 56244 3435.00 { KK+ }
Hand 1: 34.377% 34.08% 00.30% 140328 1227.00 { Td9d }
Hand 2: 51.129% 50.24% 00.89% 206859 3675.00 { KJs, QTs+, JTs, KJo, QTo+, JTo }

6:51 AM  
Blogger PokerFool said...

Oops, post above is me

6:52 AM  
Blogger Blinders said...

wonka beat me to the comment. They replayed the holding penalty and it was about as obvious as they come, and it was on the reciever the pass was intended for. If they don't call that the stripes are cheating for the Ravens. Also Baltimore needs to take some blame. If they don't call a time out on 4th down before the snap, the game is over. If they don't get greedy and throw the INT when they could have gone up 10pts the game goes to OT instead.

I love to root for the underdog, but to complain about an undefeated team because two of their games were close seems a bit silly.

BTW all teams cheat by your definition. I am sure they would all steal the play calls if they could, and I am sure nearly every team makes some effort to do so.

7:00 AM  
Blogger Blinders said...

Oh yeah, the hand. Guy on your right flopped a set (QQ, TT or 99). Guy on your left has the J and may already have the straight. Best case he's got AQ or is getting creative with AK. When the original raiser check/overcalls you are pretty much dead. If you boat up it will still not win in this case, so you are drawing pretty dead

7:07 AM  
Blogger VinNay said...

The hand: I push.

The Pats: wonka and blinders - you guys are f'n insane if you think the NFL is not trying to manufacture an undefeated team.

If you could get Tom Brady's dicks out of your mouths for 5 seconds to think about this, you would see this is obviously the case (yes, Tom Brady has two dicks, and they are also undefeated and can throw touchdowns at will).

Yes, most teams, if not all, attempt to steal signs. But not by video taping to later sync up to the game clock, because that is against the rules. Staff on the sidelines can watch the other teams coaches all they want, take notes, and try to use that information to beat the other team. But none of that is against the rules.

What the pats did, and have been doing for years is blatantly against the rules, and they continued to do so after numerous warnings. It has been there modus operandi for years.

And the smugness the teams shows about how great they are and how much of a genius the coach is sickens me. They would have you believe that Belichick was a road scholar, Tom Brady helps old ladies cross streets, and Teddy Bruschi single handedly won WWII.

Belichick's comment after the fine?
"As the commissioner acknowledged, our use of sideline video had no impact on the outcome of last week's game. We have never used sideline video to obtain a competitive advantage while the game was in progress."

Or, put another way - "We cheat all the time, but we just don't have the time during the game to sift though all the video and re-create defensive play calling, so we just use it for subsequent match-ups."

It's bullshit, the organization as a whole cheated for many years, built up defensive playbooks on most teams, and used them to win games.

And what did they get? A tiny slap on the wrist. A first round pick? Ok, fuck this, because they get to keep the pick they traded SF for, which will end up being 5th overall. The only pick they will lose will likely be 32nd pick (after they win the Superbowl). You think the NFL didn't realize this?

500K fine for Belicheck? I call shenanigans. The Pats renegotiated his salary a week later for an undisclosed amount. I have a feeling there was an extra 500k in there for him.

What should have happened was a Belicheck suspension and/or a Pats 1 year playoff forfeit. Instead, we have refs ensuring the Pats go undefeated.

If the Pats really are "That Good," The United States Congress needs to step in and break up the team under anti-trust laws.

Did I mention I hate the fucking Patriots?

11:28 AM  
Blogger Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

Vinnay, I try not to get too worked up about people who make outlandish statements like some of the ones above. Anybody -- and I do mean anybody -- who asserts that all teams cheat the way the Patriots do, or that all teams would cheat like the Patriots if they could, is a public sucker and has no hope. I have no problem whatsoever with someone who does not think the refs purposefully gave that game to the Ravens this past weekend. I think they are wrong, but I acknowledge that that is fully a matter of opinion and I respect anyone's opinion on any topic like that. But to suggest that all teams use technology to record opposing teams' signals when it is a stone cold fact that only one team does it and only one team has done it for years despite numerous warnings to the contrary, that simply shows the character of the person making the statement while obviously saying nothing of value about the offending team.

Love your comment. It's fun hating on these cheating assholes who the referees also help to win games, isn't it?

8:22 PM  
Blogger smokkee said...

i think i'm gonna be a religious reader of vinnay's blog going forward. that is one kick-ass comment.


suck-it Patsy fans!

4:18 AM  

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