Top Pair / Big Draw Question
It's the first hour of a 40-person blonkament, and the effective stack size between the player in the hand is 2800 chips. I am on the button, and the player in the cutoff open-raises the 40-chip blind to 120. I have A♣Q♥. I reraise the likely late-position stealer to 360, the blinds fold and the cutoff calls my preflop reraise. We see a flop with 780 chips in the pot.
The flop comes down J♣T♣5♣. My opponent checks, I bet 590 with the 9-out draw to the nut flush, 3 outs to the nut straight, and 6 more likely overcard outs. My opponent calls.
On the turn comes the Queen♠, and my opponent checks to me once again. Now I add top pair top kicker to my 9 nut flush outs and 3 nut straight outs, plus an overcard Ace for 3 more outs to make top two pairs in case my opponent has two pairs himself. With 1960 already in the pot and 1900 chips remaining in my stack, I bet out smallish, around 600 chips, and I am raised to 1200.
Does anybody get away from the hand in this spot? My gut told me I was probably in trouble after the checkraise on the turn, and if I had just been drawing at this point I think it is much easier to fold with just one card to come, but in this case I had picked up top pair top kicker on the turn card -- albeit on a scary board -- and I found myself thinking I had 12 outs to the nuts, 3 more outs to a better two pair if that's what my opponent held, and that I might not even need outs since I had top pair top kicker in any event. I've been struggling with this decision for several hours here and I still think I might play this turn the same way again. Anybody agree / disagree?
Labels: Hand Analysis, Tournament Strategy, Turn Play
posted by Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo @ 2:04 AM
10 Comments:
This can't be Hoyazo... I read the whole thing in a minute.
Tough hand.. 2560 in the pot, 1200 more put in... 3760 total for 600 more with only 1300 left...
14% pot odds, and you figure you've got 16 outs once (Qd for the set if you already figure you could be good with 2 pair and might be good with TPTK).
Seems like time to push the rest in there.
The argument against is that with 1300 chips and blinds at 20/40, your M > 20 still gives you some play this early if you think you're beat.
600 to call to win 3100 you are priced in for 12 outs.
You don't have fold equity.
I don't think opponent can fold no matter what comes on river..
Decision to shove or call is solely based on whether you want to continue to play $10 blonkament with 700 chips if you are sure TPTK is no good.
I think only reason to call rather than shove is if you will fold with river Jack.
No way you can fold here, but you may be in trouble. Is it better to have checked behind on the turn for the free card?
Opponent could have made 2 pair or hold AK. No time to run the math, but it seems to me that the turned Q might be more of a danger card than a helping card to you. I know it gives you a better hand, but it is likely to have helped you opponent more.
So, I check behind on the turn, and hope for the best knowing I can get away if no nut help comes on the river.
Seems like a weak play on my part, and maybe it is, but thats how I see it.
As stated though, I think your committed here.
Clearly, given the preflop raise from my opponent, the better move for me would have been to have checked behind on the turn. This would have kept me out of trouble against AK, a hand with which everybody raises preflop, and would have preserved my ability to draw at all those nut outs on the river for free. That was a clear mistake on my part. But my opponent checked both the flop and the turn, and with that indication of weakness plus my pickup of TPTK on the turn, on the spur of the moment I made the wrong decision and convinced myself that I did not want to let my opponent draw at an inside straight for free.
I'm just trying to figure out if, once I had made the clear mistake betting out on the turn, I had any argument to fold to the checkraise. I just couldn't bring myself to do it with the hand I was holding.
No way, after you bet out on the turn, I don't see how I could fold there to a raise.
Shove the turn you nit! It's going Don't 3-bet a (wide range?) raiser with AQ OTB otherwise...
What is a "fold"?
This seems like a classic lesson in always having a plan on how to respond if you are raised. In other words, you should decide ahead of time if you are check-raised on the turn what you are going to do.
And yes, I don't see any way that you are not priced in to get the rest of your chips in the middle and hope to improve to the best hand.
-PL
I enjoy the shorter post much more.
I can actually read the whole thing in one sitting...
I shove.
Question no one has asked... why are we betting less than 1/3 pot on the turn to begin with?
We have a pot sized bet left in our stack. We have a moderately strong hand with nut outs in position.
If we're worried about being tarped, check behind and take the free card. We still have a 50BB stack and don't have to dust it off here if we hate the river.
If we think we have the best of it and want to play a big pot/muscle villain out, then just shove and run good on the river if called.
Making some smaller-sized bet that just screams "please raise over me, whether I want you to or not" doesn't help you accomplish anything.
1) we aren't putting any pressure on the villain, he can turn the tables on us by check/raising...
2) is villain really going fold a better hand, or call with a worse hand and pay off on the river if you still hold?
Yeah, villain probably has you beat. But I'd rather get to see all five cards first before I write that in stone. Checking or shoving with maximum fold equity allows you to do that - betting that small really doesn't.
As played, gotta call the minraise getting 6-1 and suck out if you can, check behind/fold to a river bet if you don't, as icky as that feels - very few villains will bluff the river in this spot or fold to a shove, and you do have a teeny bit of showdown value. Having 700 chips at 20/40 isn't death, just on life support, after all.
River was Kc and you lost to Qc9c, right? ;-)
Post a Comment
<< Home